2010 AFL Grand Final St Kilda vs Collingwood 25/9/2010

[nick riewoldt12]

I am very confident we will win this weekend. I look at our Preliminary Final first half and think we couldn't have played worse for extended periods yet the defense still held. And that is the pattern of Saints footy over the last 2 years no matter what happens up the field the defence is somehow able to keep us in games. People say the backline is unheralded and vulnerable but I believe the rest of the League just hasn't watched closely enought this year. Gwuilt has been superb for much of the year and Zac Dawson improves by the week now that he has decided to play hip to hip with key forward and trust his sneaky good closing speed. Of course Fisher and Gilbert are guns we know that, I would also play Baker, I know from watching him over the years that he will not never let this team down on a big day.

I also don't think Collingwood's midfield are as good as advertised, yes they were brilliant in that first half against Geelong, but Geelong were shocking, and everything went right for Collingwood. RL is not going to allow Pendlebury and Swan a free reign in the Midfield, I'd send Jones to Swan as I believe he has the speed and endurance to play on him . I also believe our midfield is every bit as talented as the Pies, and out top 4 is better than there's. I also don't think there lower mids are that much better than ours, I'd back Gram and Peake to more than break even.

I would also back our forwards to be able to kick a big enough score if they are able to attain a fair share of midfield service, again like last year I think the chances Milne and Snhneider get are critical if they kick straight it goes a long way to us winning. I would also like to see Goddard thrown up forward for extended periods early in the game. I feel like RL has been saving the trump card of pushing BJ forward for a while now and with all the attention Riewoldt is going get Bj could kill them.

My prediction - Saints by 18 points
Norm Smith Medal = Lenny Hayes

 

[Special88]

The way i see it, and have all year is our best last year > collingwoods best this year.

And we are yet to bring out best this year... it will be brought on Saturday.

 

[AFaiL]

Only 77 posts.. come on guys, THIS IS IT!

The key to winning is the start. And while getting a good start is cliche, against the Pies is it more important. They have a large number of 2nd and 3rd tier player who rely on confidence to get into the game. Dawes and Leigh brown are not that good, but if the ball keeps coming in early, and they can snare a mark and goal, condifence goes up.

Same goes for layers like Wellingham, Toovey, Blair, Reid, Brown, Macaffer etc... These guys rely on confidence. You don't exactly know what their output is going to be pre game (unlike Pendel, Swan, etc...) and if they get a sniff, they will blossom. If they are hit hard, and have limited chance early, the self doubt creeps in

I think we have a lot more player across the board who don't rely on confidence (Kosi is the main one who does) and they can will themselves into a game and won't be deterred no matter what.

The game will be won and lost in the first quarter, that is my opinion. Keep em down, keep their crowd quiet, and don't let them have the chance to fluke a goal or two and get some easy touches, and you go a long, long way to beating them.

 

[AFaiL]

Norm Smith Smokey: Sam Fisher. Was @ $67 the other day.

His past efforts against the pies are superb

 

[Special88]

I thought Fish would be a good chance... but I reckon if we win the midfielders or the goal kicking forwards will get all the praise...

I like Joey at $15, Schneider at $31 and if Jones happens to play on Swan ( I dont think he will tho) and keeps him well held by his standards,, CJ is paying $61.

Firsts goal Schneider $14 and Milne $12

 

[SammyFish25]

Norm Smith Smokey: Sam Fisher. Was @ $67 the other day.

His past efforts against the pies are superb

Said this to SammyFish Senior the other day, asked him to put some money on him for me...

 

[Plugger35]

Only 77 posts.. come on guys, THIS IS IT!

The key to winning is the start. And while getting a good start is cliche, against the Pies is it more important. They have a large number of 2nd and 3rd tier player who rely on confidence to get into the game. Dawes and Leigh brown are not that good, but if the ball keeps coming in early, and they can snare a mark and goal, condifence goes up.

Same goes for layers like Wellingham, Toovey, Blair, Reid, Brown, Macaffer etc... These guys rely on confidence. You don't exactly know what their output is going to be pre game (unlike Pendel, Swan, etc...) and if they get a sniff, they will blossom. If they are hit hard, and have limited chance early, the self doubt creeps in

I think we have a lot more player across the board who don't rely on confidence (Kosi is the main one who does) and they can will themselves into a game and won't be deterred no matter what.

The game will be won and lost in the first quarter, that is my opinion. Keep em down, keep their crowd quiet, and don't let them have the chance to fluke a goal or two and get some easy touches, and you go a long, long way to beating them.

We definitely need to start well, can't afford to let them get on a roll early like they did with Geelong or against us last time we played them. They are chock full of confidence at the moment so if they get on top they will be hard to stop, especially if their moron army get behind them.

If we can restrict their scoring early, keep it tight or get an early lead I reckon the wobbles might begin to set in and we can cash in on any errors they make. Hawthorn showed in Rd.22 they are susceptible to pressure if you keep it tight, likewise Adelaide before them.

Our pressure around the ball will need to be ferocious early on as I'm sure they will be, we at least need to match them in that department. If we can do that I think we have the class to get on top in the midfield. which will then help bring our forwards into the game.

 

[The Punter]

Sam Fisher? That's Mr September to you.

Statistical analysis says:

Finals disposals average:

Gram 19.89, McEvoy 10.50, Hayes 24.31, Montagna 22.45, Riewoldt 16.21, Schneider 11.15, Gardiner 10.29, Goddard 19.00, Gilbert 17.75, Ray 19.63, Koschitzke 11.42, Dempster 7.27, Fisher 25.70, Dal Santo 21.79, Blake 12.85, Peake 15.40, McQualter 11.13, Gwilt 12.86, Jones 15.50, Eddy 9.43, Dawson 14.20, Milne 11.15.

Finals marks average

Gram 4.11, McEvoy 3.50, Hayes 4.31, Montagna 4.82, Riewoldt 8.79, Schneider 3.50, Gardiner 4.50, Goddard 6.00, Gilbert 5.75, Ray 5.13, Koschitzke 6.08, Dempster 2.64, Fisher 9.20, Dal Santo 4.07, Blake 5.62, Peake 5.00, McQualter 2.63, Gwilt 4.43, Jones 2.25, Eddy 1.86, Dawson 6.40, Milne 3.23.

A very smart bet indeed.

 

[dg102]

All the weather reports are saying its going to be DRY! Thank the lord above, maybe something will go right for us this year and just at the right time.

First final vs Geelong we smashed em while it was dry. Prelim final I think it dried up a bit by half time and we smashed the dogs in the 3rd. Players like Roo, Milne, Kosi and Jones play so much better in the dry.

 

[TassieSaint]

I hope we win

 

[samwise]

The start is massive. With both sides having great pressure and defense that make it hard to score, if either side misses some chances the pressure will really be on and it will be hard to overcome it. I know at least Cloke has admitted to getting a massive confidence boost if he gets an early goal. History shows me that Kosi is the same.

Praying for dry weather. It was much dryer by the 2nd half last week which helped. Need Kosi to be a factor and it has to be dry for him to do so. Last years GF Scarlett killed him, qualifying final first half Kosi killed Scarlett. Then when it was wet in the second half Scarlett dominated. Can't let Maxwell and co. not pay much attention to Kosi.
I doubt we can win if it is not dry. We have shown we can't execute well enough.

Schnieder needs to step up this time. Don't have much hope for Milney on O'Brien because he kills everyone Milne's size, especially Milne but boy would a Milney special be a massive lift for everyone. A goal or two from McQualter or Eddy would be a big bonus and would go a long way.

Riewoldt will no doubt have a reasonable impact but history has shown it is bloody hard to dominate in a GF and against a great defensive side I don't think he can win us the game. I'm sure Collingwood will put a lot of effort into stopping him. Hopefully he will be able to take a lot of marks for us up the ground and break the Collingwood zone and kick accurately! A true captain's goal or two would be nice.

For me the most important areas of the match will be the contested ball around the ground and turnovers. Neither side can set up their amazing defenses that work off turnovers when they are the one that turn it over. Both sides will have patches of dominant pressure during the game and these could be the telling moments. Players like Gram and Gilbert have to step up for us and not bomb away. No doubt Lyon will be focused on getting the ball to a contest on the boundary and having McEvoy or Gardiner either just push the ball accross the line or get it front and center where we always have a couple of players who can then get a few chain of handballs going and then kick it to Roo on the lead to break their zone.

Collingwood will be better at rebounding in my opinion because of their speed so it is crucial that our defense can hold up 1 on 1 like it has been so far, especially in the first half last week.
It will be a game that will be played on the outside areas of the ground. If either team can get an ascendancy in the middle then they will probably win.

Both sides will need to take most of their chances to relieve pressure.
Collingwood's all out frontal pressure zone appears to everyone to be the more dominant and effective but I have massive faith that Lyon knows exactly what is going on and that they will not win because they have a better style of play. EXECUTION EXECUTION and EXECUTION. That is what will decide this game. Who can execute the best when it counts. We saw last week what happens if you dont execute against Collingwood.

 

[carlton09]

Carn the sainters!!

 

[StFly]

Pies =/= Cats, just because we smahed the cats in the dry does not equate that since it will probably be dry we will then smash the pies in the dry as well. The keys as I see them;

Clearance work will need to be 50-50 at worst, if you look at both matches this year there's a differential of 7-4 (36-29 / 33-29) and in both matches the shots on have encountered a similar differential in 21-19 & 25-22. Fast clearance work ultimately puts more pressure on a rather young backline (Toovey, N. Brown, Reid) than does zoning, since it inherently means they will need to p-lay in front and risk the ball going over the back on any clean possession.

Half Forwards need to continue the improvement in both presenting high and tracking back, if we can replicate the 15 marks inside F50 (domination) and convert the chances as opposed to 4 goals 7 with several OOF then it will go a long way to giving our own boys confidence to take their opponent wherever they please and know they will have mates around and be able to catch on the rebound. 1on1 play you'd back Rooey on Brown/Reid in the air, you'd back Kosi on the lead (seems to take far more out in front of him than Rooey does) and you'd back Milne and Schneiderman to turn their opponents on a weighted kick. The problems only arise when the backline are allowed to set up, which is less a problem for us given our defenders are ultimately our strong points over the last couple years.

Intent. Prior to the round 3 match as we all know Collingwood had the intent of roughing up Clint to get him off his game, during the year several teams had the intent of negating Gilbert, Fisher and Gwilt, we all know teams bring in players who aren't 100%, they might be 98%, they might be getting jabs, but ultimately the intent needs to be focused and it needs to be hard. Didak has a suspected dodgy shoulder? tackle and ensure it's that shoulder that's driven into the turf at every opportunity. Presti comes in, everyone he lines up on drag him all around the park and get the bloke puffing of twiddling his thumbs as his opponent goes over him. Ball gets "cramp", make the bloke stretch on the run, "Grammy tackle" and make it as uncomfortable for him to run and kick as you can make it. The intent needs to be to go the ball hard, to go at the player with the ball hard and if the bloke is hurt to hurt him some more until he wants to get off that field instead of staying on it. Because then you ultimately win the mental battle through what could be only 2 efforts, 2 instances, 2 minor efforts in the grand scheme of things, that instead of a toepoke it is a bonecrunching tackle or sheer desperation to grab the loose ball.

Conversion. We've ultimately proven that we can win big and then we can nut out a small lead over quality opposition but take a look at the QF and you think 8.8 v 5.6 at half time, that really should have been 13.3 (roughly) 56 points then becomes 81 because it wasn't stabbed at, hurried, shanked or otherwise. This was key during last year, shanks, miskicks and fresh air shots (Joey....) that we simply cannot afford to make the same mistakes again.

Then, no matter what Collingwood attempt to do it will avail them not. However low their blokes go to grab the ball we will go lower to feed it out, no matter how hard they try to run they'd be brought down by 2-3 blokes and a bit ginger getting up and no matter how much they pepper from outside 50 on the boundary they'll face a wall.

 

[Special88]

There is no doubt we have to come out and attack.. no use sitting back, I can't remember many times this year where Collingwood haven't been in front at quater time. We have Grand Final experience so we need to settle faster and try and get it on the scoreboard. As i hard Robert Walls say last night, and I never agree with him, that if St Kilda can use there experience, settle faster and put score boar pressure on, its yet to be seen how these young pies will stand up under that sort of pressure.

Be in front at quater time must be set as a huge target imo.

 

[krusden]

as we saw last year it comes down to a game of inches

The weather also looks good... nice and fine. Whether its a result of etihad playing or what i dont know or care but we can be dubious in the wet so a dry game is paramount so thats certainly a positive.

Love the write ups too. keep em coming

I think our key is BJ. I think he can play both the rebounding role but also the marshalling general role down back that Tom Harley played so well at Geelong.

 

[The Punter]

This year Collingwood have been behind at quarter time only five times. They've lost two of those games (St Kilda in Round 3 and Geelong in Round 9).

They have been in front at quarter time 19 times, for two losses (Brisbane in Round 10 & Hawthorn in Round 22) and a draw (Melbourne in Round 12).

Record when in front at quarter time: 16-2-1
Record when behind at quarter time: 3-2

 

[CHBench]

I guess a good sign is we've given ourselves opportunities to really stamp ourselves on the game early in both our finals, but haven't taken them.

4.7 vs Geelong
1.5 vs Dogs

(Granted those teams do not apply the same amount of pressure Collingwood do)


We're due.

 

[mysainters]

I keep hearing how if the Pies play at their best, they will win.

Not sure they grasp that this side is capable of ensuring sides don't play at their best.

Go Saints!

 

[candiehappy]

Good luck boys. IMO (which is often out of whack!) the Saints are a more talented team than the Pies, but need to be onfire from the start. I think that if you can be infront at half time, pies will drop their heads.

All the best for a big day.

 

[krusden]

This year Collingwood have been behind at quarter time only five times. They've lost two of those games (St Kilda in Round 3 and Geelong in Round 9).

They have been in front at quarter time 19 times, for two losses (Brisbane in Round 10 & Hawthorn in Round 22) and a draw (Melbourne in Round 12).

Record when in front at quarter time: 16-2-1
Record when behind at quarter time: 3-2

thats a pertinent stat there Punter.

WE cannot afford to start slowly.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Hmm, that raises the question - how many times this year have we been ahead at quarter and half time this year, especially against top-8 teams?

 

[Plugger35]

I think we've shown a number of times that we're capable of winning from behind like we did against the Dogs. In fact we seem to do that better than getting a lead early and then going on the defensive like we did against Geelong.

Having said that we can't afford to give up a big lead early. If we can keep within touch of Collingwood in the first 2 to 3 quarters, ie. be no more than a goal or two down, I'd back us to overrun them.

Obviously the ideal situation would be to get a lead early and then go on with it for a comfortable win. Would be a lot less stressful.

 

[nick riewoldt12]

Seriously we have to win this, I can't stand losing to Collingwood.

On another note, how arrogant has Nick Maxwell been this week, the way he is acting you would think he actually played on a forward.

 

[Plugger35]

Yeah I heard Maxwell being asked if he thought they were going to win and he said he was without any hesitation.

Fair enough being confident I guess but you get the feeling that they think they are the better side and will just need to turn up and play their best to win. Even Heath Shaw was confident about swallowing up Riewoldt in their so called famed structures Your structures never helped you against a fully fit and firing Riewoldt in the past Heath.

I hope to god we turn up to play our best and put these arrogant pricks in their place. We have the better team and it's time to show it.

 

[ULTIMATE_WARRIOR]

Seriously we have to win this, I can't stand losing to Collingwood.

HAVE TO!! And not because I cant stand losing to them either, this is a GRAND FINAL!!

On another note, how arrogant has Nick Maxwell been this week, the way he is acting you would think he actually played on a forward.

In fairness to Nick Maxwell, he along with alot of their players, have been very confidnt all week. That is all you can ask from your leaders and he has handled himself pretty well in my opinion.

the same goes for our players too though. Nick Riewoldt and all the Saints, every time they talk and by every little action I get more and more confidence going into Saturday!