2010 Ladder Predictions

[Wonaeamirri33]

Like I said, the trolls can't make up their minds... they say we should've beaten St Kilda.... and then try to say that we're not going to get anywhere next season?

Consistency... very crucial in any decent troll I'd say

 

[tcwaters]

W33, do you believe if someone has placed Melbourne in the bottom four, they are trolling you and your team?

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Well mate, certainly when someone actually tries to make a claim like SLF's, I have to suspect either they're trolling, or they've been hanging out with Spartan and his entourage for too long!

Methinks probably the latter in SLF's case, from what I've heard...

 

[Deledio2Conca]

There is no chance we will be bottom next year, absolutely none.

Heck, if we didn't tank this year we would have won around 7 games this year IMO and been well off the bottom. We will improve drastically next year. 9th - 11th for mine.

Hahahaha come on buddy, you know you guys aren't getting out of the bottom 4 next year.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Ummm... without the level of injury probs we've had, we'd have been 9th or 10th THIS year!

So no, not exactly wildly ambitious to suggest that we'll reach that level next year.

 

[tcwaters]

Ummm... without the level of injury probs we've had, we'd have been 9th or 10th THIS year!

You don't know that. Yes, you had alot of injuries, but a few were to nothing special players. Plenty of teams had important players out at some stage this year probably changing the outcome of games.

Fremantle: Palmer, Crowley & Johnson
Richmond: Foley, Cotchin and Richo.
West Coast: Cox, Kerr, Waters, Masten & M. Brown.
Hawthorn had a bucklet load of injuries to different players all season.
North: Zieball, Hale & Wells.

Those are all important players to their repective clubs, and could have altered the outcome of a game, quite easily. Every club goes through it, and to say you'd go from the bottom to 9/10 is absurd.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Not particularly mate, because we've had at least 5 games that I can point to where the loss of huge chunks of our best 22 through injury had a MASSIVE influence on the outcome.

WCE at Subi, Bulldogs at the MCG, Adelaide at the 'G, Richmond at the 'G, and Sydney at Manuka.

All close matches (3 of them lost by about a goal or less in fact, the other 2 by about 3 goals), where injuries to players in key positions were a decisive factor in the result.

 

[rofltown]

Good chance of Carlton missing the 8 next year. One or two KEY injuries and it's an uphill battle to make the 8.

We lost our FB and CHB ffs
and don't say that there crap because there our best defenders and without them we're alot more vunerable to tall forwards.

 

[kfleong2000]

Eagles lost a couple of games by less than a kick and a couple more by less than two kicks.

Point is, each club has their share of injuries. The important thing to also remember is that injuries to fringe players do not matter as much as injuries to key players.

Freo (can't believe I'm defending them) had Pav and Sandi out for a few matches, and ones like Palmer (probably one of their best midfielders), Crowley (best tagger), Johnson and Hayden (best rebound defenders) etc etc

 

[rofltown]

There is no chance we will be bottom next year, absolutely none.

Heck, if we didn't tank this year we would have won around 7 games this year IMO and been well off the bottom. We will improve drastically next year. 9th - 11th for mine.

uhm....yes there is a chance as long as your in the afl that you will finish last. From a non biased perspective I don't know why you melbourne guys are all up and about... it takes a few seasons to build a descent team and your not there yet. You'll finish bottom 4 next season imo

 

[tcwaters]

Not particularly mate, because we've had at least 5 games that I can point to where the loss of huge chunks of our best 22 through injury had a MASSIVE influence on the outcome.

WCE at Subi, Bulldogs at the MCG, Adelaide at the 'G, Richmond at the 'G, and Sydney at Manuka.

All close matches (3 of them lost by about a goal or less in fact, the other 2 by about 3 goals), where injuries to players in key positions were a decisive factor in the result.

For starters, I hope you're not talking about the game you scored 34 points against Adelaide.

Anyway, you want to talk about close matches? I'm not even taking into account Port or Sydney, as I haven't followed them, but they may have had injuries and lost close matches due to them as well, I'm not sure.

These are matches, 10 points or less. (if I had included matches in the 11-20 bracket, like you have, there would have been alot more)

West Coast; def. by BL (9 points), def. by FREO (7 points), def. by SYD (5 points), def by MEL (10 points), def. by FREO (5 points)
North; def by HAW (9 points), drew with RICH, def. by CARL (10 points)
Richmond; def. by MEL (8 points), def by PORT (3 points), drew with NORTH
Fremantle; def. by RICH (3 points)

All of these games could have been influenced by key players who were injured.

There is no way, even with the injuries you had, that you guys were ever going to leave the bottom two.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Come on, that's a pretty silly thing to say isn't it? You reckon we'd have had no chance of beating the Bulldogs (who we lost to by 8), WCE at Subi (who we lost to by 7) or Richmond (who we lost to by less than a goal) with our full-strength team on the field, when we ran all three teams THAT close even with the injuries we've been carrying?

You've got to be kidding, yeah... or are you suggesting that everyone else in the comp would've been able to win 8-10 games or more in that scenario?

And why wouldn't we have beaten Adelaide at full-strength, considering we were so injury-depleted for that match that we had practically no forward line at all at that point?

Come on, let's play the Real Waltz here, honestly...

 

[tcwaters]

Yeah, you might have beaten them. But the other clubs had injuries, and they might have won other games as well.. That's what I'm getting at, and thats why I think Melbourne wouldn't have progressed much further than 14th/15th.

 

[kfleong2000]

That Adelaide game was played in atrocious conditions, I doubt a having a couple of 'real' forwards, whatever that means, would've had much of an influence. It was such a shit game to watch.

Injuries are not an excuse. They're a factor, but not an excuse. It's not like every other club barely had any injuries. The nature of football means that it is very rare to have your best 22 out on the park for an extended period of time.

tcwaters pointed out how the Eagles lost 5 games by under two goals. Those games also had a few of our first 22 out of action. It's ridiculous to believe though that based on that, we are certainties for finals next year should we have our first 22 out on the park most weeks.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Well yeah KF, you know I agree that WCE would've also been substantially higher up on the ladder without the injuries you guys have had to contend with. Even on the Bay I've said that.

As far as I can see, we're also in with a decent chance of playing finals next year if we have our best 22 on the park most weeks.

But in response to TC, I find it pretty hard to see how we'd have finished 15th this year if we'd won 7-9 games, as we certainly would have without the ridiculous injury list. Somewhere between 9th & 13th- that's about where we'd have been.

 

[tcwaters]

But in response to TC, I find it pretty hard to see how we'd have finished 15th this year if we'd won 7-9 games, as we certainly would have without the ridiculous injury list. Somewhere between 9th & 13th- that's about where we'd have been.

Running in circles mate.

The point I've been trying to make, is that most teams in the bottom 8 also had injuries to key players. You're saying you would have won more games, and whilst possible, so would have other teams. At full strength, atm, Melbourne is still definitely a bottom 4 side. Possibly bottom 2.

 

[RPetterd15]

Adelaide
Geelong
Collingwood
St Kilda
Hawthorn-Should bounce back
Carlton
Essendon- Might make finals
Brisbane
---------
Western Bulldogs-Could be an rough chance not to make finals but just my guess
Sydney
Port Adelaide
North Melbourne-Probably lower
Melbourne-Will be fighting for spots between north and wce
West Coast- Probably a bit higher
Richmond
Fremantle

 

[Richo83]

1. St Kilda - players are still there, win the flag, and they'll be ready for more, lose, and like Geelong, the hunger remains anyway
2. Collingwood - the up and comer? Not really, good enough list and are about here anyway.
3. Geelong - still have enough talent, and are still young enough to improve. If they win the flag, hunger to continue is there, is they don't win the flag, hunger to finally prove 07 wasn't a one off remains. Either way, they stay up.
4. Adelaide - shown some very good signs.
5. Hawthorn - could have them higher, cautious about doing it though.
6. Western Bulldogs - see them as having a weaker list than Hawthorn and Adelaide in terms of structure.
7. West Coast - one of my outside the eight picks. Good young list.
8. Carlton - It makes sense to have them higher but then again when do these things make sense?
9. Brisbane - I think they have an aging tall forward structure with Bradshaw. Could be wrong though and I felt doubtful on this.
10. Essendon - another team I feel unsure about, remember they only won 9 games this year which in a normal season would have them around here.
11. Sydney - sounds right, they don't tank remember.
12. Fremantle - not as bad as people think, homeground advantage will help.
13. Melbourne - I see them rising but not that far, they've got a long way to go.
14. Port - lose matches they should, no real form.
15. North - new coach and depth issues. Players like Harvey are getting on.
16. Richmond - struggling, will be rebuilding, new coach and players have next to no confidence.

Will be wrong, and I can see Richmond overtaking North, Essendon and Brisbane overtaking others and more teams out of the 8 this year coming in. Hard to know which though. What is for sure is clubs who are struggling tend to stay there for a while while they rebuild. Richmond wont contest for the finals for some years.

 

[GarnerSmash]

15. North - new coach and depth issues. Players like Harvey are getting .

I'm curious, who else North's best 22 is 'getting on'?

 

[dajesmac]

Adelaide
Geelong
Collingwood
St Kilda
Hawthorn-Should bounce back
Carlton
Essendon- Might make finals
Brisbane
---------
Western Bulldogs-Could be an rough chance not to make finals but just my guess
Sydney
Port Adelaide
North Melbourne-Probably lower
Melbourne-Will be fighting for spots between north and wce
West Coast- Probably a bit higher
Richmond
Fremantle

I'd be extremely surprised if North, Port and Sydney finish higher than us. Even Melbourne I'm iffy about. We're better than 14th IMO.

 

[PumpyChowdown]

1. Hawthorn
2. Essendon
3. Melbourne
4. Richmond
5. Carlton
6. West Coast
7. Brisbane
8. St. Kilda

9. Adelaide
10. Port Adelaide
11. Fremantle
12. Collingwood
13. North Melbourne
14. Sydney
15. Geelong
16. Western Bulldogs

 

[bluesfan95]

Melbourne probably wont be that high up and I
would definately put adelaide in the top four.
rofl Richmond.

 

[dajesmac]

1. Hawthorn
2. Essendon
3. Melbourne
4. Richmond
5. Carlton
6. West Coast
7. Brisbane
8. St. Kilda

9. Adelaide
10. Port Adelaide
11. Fremantle
12. Collingwood
13. North Melbourne
14. Sydney
15. Geelong
16. Western Bulldogs

Are you kidding?

 

[Bayer_]

1-4, St Kilda. Collingwood. Doggies. Geelong.
5-8, Essendon, Adelaide, Carlton, Brisbane.
9-12, Eagles, Hawthorn, Port, Richmond
13-16, Kangaroos, Fremantle, Sydney, Melbourne

Clearly a lot of thought went into this one.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

I like the way Pumpy thinks...