2011 Brownlow Medal Discussion

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Two players in the top 5 favourites for this year's count.

I know Judd is a huge favourite, but I'm not so sure about this one.

Maybe it is his 'quiet by his standards' last month?

Maybe it is the public perception of his umpire pet status that makes me think they will go out of their way to not give Judd votes this year.

Maybe it is because Swan was considered unlucky last year that they umpires will look more at his possession count and find more votes for him?

Maybe it is because Thomas was suspended so the umpires would have stopped looking at him after that and Swan and Pendlebury will get his votes instead?

Maybe it is because Murphy got so much publicity and will take votes off Judd?

Maybe it is because Goodes is every bit the vote catcher that Judd is but has been off the radar in recent seasons so will not be considered an umpire pet this year?

I'm truly thinking there is more chance of Judd not winning it than winning it. If I had a choice of Judd winning it or Murphy winning it, I would love to see Murph get up.

One thing I hope for, is that if Judd or Murphy do not win it, that our supporters do not jump up and down and sook about it. Judd was worthy but fortunate last year. If he misses this year, then it is swings and roundabouts IMO.

We had reason to complain about the Walker mark of the year that wasn't awarded, and some reason to question umpiring in the semi final. Some reason to question Scotland not getting an AA spot. The Brownlow is far less cut and dried though.

Let's be magnanimous whatever happens.

 

[zeeCFC]

Pendlebury, surely!

 

[tipstar]

Well said ODN and totally agree!!

I myself agree with zee and think Peddles is the one and I've thought that for a couple of months now...

 

[reg_lower91]

Throughout the latter part of the season I had firmly held the opinion that Judd had the brownlow in the bag. Not so sure now.

For me i think it may now be:
1 - Mitchell*
2 - Goodes
3 - Judd
4 - Pendlebury
5 - Swan/ Murphy

BUT i wouldn't necessarily be surprised if anyone of those 6 players win it. Should be an interesting count.

But boy do i hope Juddy wins it just to shove it up all the other supporters

 

[Jeremias]

I'd be surprised if Judd doesn't win. Mitchell could easily finish the evening with most votes though.

Pendles was my tip before the season and he will be right up there. He'll certainly be right up there.

 

[zeeCFC]

Gonna go out on a limb and say Judd wont poll more than 15 votes. Umps have almost completely ignored him all year.

(of course, will be very happy to be proven wrong )

 

[Poseidon]

Pendlebury has been the best player of 2011 IMHO. Goodes will attract a fair bit of attention as well.

I actually don't expect Judd to win it. I think the umpires love for him became controversial enough at the mid-point of this season that they are now probably too far the other way, umpiring him more harshly and probably not giving him the votes he might deserve. I know this sucks but I fully expect it from a sporting organisation as amateurish as the AFL.

 

[Beloved]

After Round 24, Judd was the dead-set certainty. Now heading into Grand Final week, there's doubt. How does that work?

 

[RiCHii]

I don't know why but I have a feeling Judd will not win it tonight, I get this feeling infact that Murphy will poll more votes than him. I am happy to be proven wrong though

 

[Wickzki]

I don't understand the gambling ethos this year.

• Judd had a quiet last month (last game he will poll in his the Dockers game
• Marc Murphy is considered the HOT favorite to be leading the voting after round 12

Therefore, hypothetically the bookies are reliant on Judd's polling between rounds 13 and 21 (admittedly he should get 3 votes for several of those games, but he will be starting behind Murphy in their eyes) for him to win it.

I've got my own voting that I've been working on throughout the season. I had it right last year but I'm not so sure this time around.

What I see happening tonight now (and this goes against my own votes) is Judd leading by maybe 3-4 votes after round 21 and being caught by both Collingwood players (Swan and Pendles) and Adam Goodes. Goodes to win over Pendles and Swan. Judd who wont poll from 22-24 will be overtaken. They'll pan to Fat Eddie when the votes are announced that the first of his boys has overtaken Judd. Big fat grin on his face, the opposite of last year. Goodes had an amazing round 24, Collingwood lost by 100 points. Swan or Pendles to be leading the count heading into the final round (maybe even tied for the lead) with Goodes 3 votes giving him his third.

If Judd does not win the Brownlow medal I'm not going to be in the least bit aggravated about it. There is not a single game over the course of the season that would stand out as blatantly as Diesel's game back in '93 where he was clearly robbed. If Judd does not win then I'm going to take the opinion that he had a brilliant season, was a superb leader of the footy club yet the rest of the team come on in leaps and bounds. It will be the final act of symbolism required to prove that this is more than a one man show. Most everyone in the media believes he has played better this year than he did last year. Last year nobody else polled Brownlow votes and almost quite rightly so. This year we have half a dozen players who could push the double digits and we have another Brownlow fancy. It's a positive rather than a negative.

Good luck to Smurph though. I had him coming second throughout the season but it's not important where he really places (be it second, third, fourth or so on) so long as he gets the votes. He gets the votes it means that the umpires are watching him and seeing his influence. It's important to build that type of reputation among the umpiring fraternity.

FWIW, on my actual poll I had Murphy getting 29 (tying with Pendles) and Judd with 27 (tying with Swan). However, I had Goodes winning it with 30. I realize that's a high count but I feel it could turn out that way this year.

I am also interested in seeing how Chris Yarran polls, if he does. Quite a few think he's a dark horse, not to win it but to steal votes here and there. I personally didn't give him a single Brownlow vote this year although I do recognize that he impacted a number of games. I just don't think that he impacts the game (yet) in the manner that will garner him votes.

 

[RiCHii]

My main reason for Judd not winning it this year and Murphy actually overtaking him is I feel that last year no body in their right mind thought Judd would win the Brownlow, no one expected him to poll that many votes at all. This year I feel, the umpires being only human (as we know), will have the mindset that they will "give someone else a go" and give a few more votes to Murphy rather than the outright 3 to Judd. Just my theory but good luck to all the boys and lets hope that we can get an even spread of votes and put the "Judd is the only one who can poll votes for Carlton because they are SH!T comments" to rest.

 

[Jellycup_84]

i have decided....... it will be a tie

between Judd and Murphey

There its set it stone

 

[CamTinley]

My main reason for Judd not winning it this year and Murphy actually overtaking him is I feel that last year no body in their right mind thought Judd would win the Brownlow, no one expected him to poll that many votes at all. This year I feel, the umpires being only human (as we know), will have the mindset that they will "give someone else a go" and give a few more votes to Murphy rather than the outright 3 to Judd. Just my theory but good luck to all the boys and lets hope that we can get an even spread of votes and put the "Judd is the only one who can poll votes for Carlton because they are SH!T comments" to rest.

I've got the same theory. I'm going to be very happy if Murphy wins this thing tonight

 

[RiCHii]

I don't really mind who wins it whether it be Judd, Murphy, Pendles or Swan. I feel it's a tad bit irrelevant but who knows what the umpires will do.

 

[CaptainCharisma]

I've got the same theory. I'm going to be very happy if Murphy wins this thing tonight

Have a wager?

I hope Murph wins it. But think Mitchell will win on votes but ineligible, Goodes will storm home to take home Charlie.

 

[BLUES9898]

Likely 3 eaCh game (Carlton players only)

Rd1 Murphy. Rd13 kruzer
Rd2 Gibbs. Rd14 Scotland
Rd3 curnow. Rd15 Judd
Rd4 murphy. Rd16. Murphy
Rd5 walker. Rd17 Judd
Rd6 Judd. Rd18 betts or Judd
Rd7 Gibbs. Rd19 Gibbs
Rd8 bye Rd20 judd
Rd9 Murphy. Rd21 Murphy or Judd
Rd10 Judd. Rd22 yarran or Simpson
Rd11 Robinson. Rd23 bye
Rd12 Scotland. Rd24 Simpson

 

[Tuohy For One]

As well as Mitchell *should* poll I would not be shocked in the slightest if Franklin won Hawthorn's vote.

Team Leaders

Adelaide: Scott Thompson
Brisbane: Tom Rockliff
Carlton: Marc Murphy followed by Chris Judd
Collingwood: Scott Pendlebury followed by Dane Swan
Essendon: Jobe Watson
Fremantle: Matthew Pavlich followed by Nat Fyfe
Geelong: Joel Selwood
Gold Coast: Gary Ablett
Hawthorn: Lance Franklin then Sam Mitchell
Melbourne: Brent Moloney
North Melbourne: Andrew Swallow
Port Adelaide: Robbie Gray (5 votes)
St. Kilda: Nick Dal Santo
Sydney: Adam Goodes (winner)
West Coast Eagles: Dean Cox followed by Priddis (though wouldn't shock me if Cox was robbed by the umps again)
Western Bulldogs: Matthew Boyd

Zach Tuohy will win it in 2014.

 

[traaxx]

As we countdown to C JUDD 3 Votes.. a tribute video!

He's blue da ba dee da ba die...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KicFq87yWo

lets get it out there!!

 

[Tuohy For One]

Re: As we countdown to C JUDD 3 Votes.. a tribute video!

Beautiful vid, traaxx

 

[Tuohy For One]

Re: As we countdown to C JUDD 3 Votes.. a tribute video!

He's blue da ba dee da ba die...

[youtube]7KicFq87yWo[/youtube]

lets get it out there!!

There ya go

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Judd/Goodes tie.

They both deserve it.

 

[portaz]

Big Coxxyy... Have $20 on it...!!

 

[traaxx]

Thanks Tuohy for One

 

[traaxx]

Re: As we countdown to C JUDD 3 Votes.. a tribute video!

There ya go

To everyone that likes my vid, please post it on FB, Google+, Twitter..whatever, be awesome if it went Viral!

 

[zeeCFC]

Re: As we countdown to C JUDD 3 Votes.. a tribute video!

Dal Santo a chance?