2011 Ladder Predictions - Part 2

[SM]

Pretty sure I did one of these a while back in the thread by I am going to post a new one anyhow. Recent injuries have affected how I see this year panning out:

1. Western Bulldogs 18/4
2. Geelong 16/6
3. Carlton 15/7
4. Collingwood 14/8
5. Freo 13/9
6. Sydney 13/9
7. Adelaide 13/9
8. North Melbourne 13/9
9. Hawthorn 12/10
10. St. Kilda 12/10
11. Richmond 10/12
12. Brisbane 8/14
13. Port Adelaide 8/14
14. Melbourne 7/15
15. Essendon 6/16
16. Gold Coast 4/18
17. West Coast 4/18

Did the prediction game by game. Tried to throw in some upsets, form drops and hot streaks. Middlband pretty damn even, Carlton bias did occur

Saints maybe a bit low, Carlton a bit high, but you were honest about Carlton's placement at least. Good job.

 

[scaryness]

1. Collingwood
2. Bulldogs
3. Hawthorn
4. Sydney
5. Fremantle
6. St. Kilda
7. Carlton
8. Geelong
-------------------------
9. North Melbourne
10. Melbourne
11. Port Adelaide
12. Adelaide
13. Richmond
14. Gold Coast
15. Brisbane
16. West Coast
17. Essendon

 

[_RT_]

1. Collingwood
2. Fremantle
3. St Kilda
4. Geelong
5. Hawthorn
6. Carlton
7. Dogs
8. Adelaide
--------------
9. Melbourne
10. North
11. Sydney
12. Port
13. Richmond
14. Essendon
15. Gold Coast
16. West Coast
17. Brisbane

Top 8 I'm pretty much sold on as making it. 9-12 could finish in any order as I reckon there will only be 1-2 games between them. The bottom 5 are also pretty much set as far as I'm concerned. Brisbane are in all sorts of trouble this summer, WC are a chance to look at securing themselves a pre first round PP for winning less than 4 games. GC might look to rort the system a little more and aim for only 4 wins as well get themselves another end of first round PP to go with their couple of compo picks they picked up. Essendon will simply struggle adapting to a new gameplan and inexperienced coach, don't care if Bomber is in the box as well. Richmond are building slowly and I think Dimma will look at getting more games into kids as such I don't see us becoming a 10 win side, more likely to be a 6-8 win side.

 

[carltonblue]

1. St Kilda
2. Collingwood
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Sydney
5. Carlton
6. Hawthorn
7. Geelong
8. Fremantle
9. Richmond
10. Melbourne
11. Adelaide
12. Bombers
13. North
14. Brisbane
15. Port Adelaide
16. West Coast
17. Suns

Week1:
Saints def by Sydney
Pies def Bulldogs
Carlton def Freo
Hawks def Cats

Week2:
Saints def by Carlton
Bulldogs def Hawks

Week3:
Sydney def by Bulldogs
Pies def by Carlton

Grandy
Carlton def Bulldogs

 

[StringyDog]

I've actually predicted us to lose most of our interstate matches (we will beat Sydney and West Coast). We have to overcome this fear of playing outside Melbourne and I feel West Coast, Brisbane and Sydney are gettable this year - perhaps the Gold Coast too. We won''t beat Freo, Port or Adelaide.

The home game/away game argument is moot.

We either play at the MCG or Docklands for both home and away games. Every chance of breaking even across home and away at both venues.

Under Knights, it was shown that Essendon can be competitive against the good sides (just ask the Dogs and Saints). Hird will tap into that belief.

Wow, just when you thought Essendon supporters couldn't be dumber, refer to below for some common sense.

I think you'll find he was talking about Freo. .. Least that is who I was thinking of. .. You gave them 20 wins and they play 12 games at Subi, hence 8 away win at least. ..

 

[fitzroy_lions123]

1. Hawthorn
2. Collingwood
3. St. Kilda
4. Fremantle
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Adelaide
7. Geelong
8. Melbourne
--
9. Carlton
10. Sydney
11. Essendon
12. Brisbane Lions
13. Richmond
14. Gold Coast
15. North Melbourne
16. West Coast
17. Port Adelaide

 

[Hawks42011]

1. Geelong (18-4)
2. Collingwood (17-5)
3. Sydney (16-6)
4. Fremantle (16-6)
5. Adelaide (15-7)
6. Hawthorn (14-8)
7. Melbourne (11-11)
8. Essendon (11-11)
----------------------
9. St Kilda (10-12)
10. Western Bulldogs (10-12)
11. Carlton (10-12)
12. North Melbourne (9-13)
13. Port Adelaide (8-14)
14. West Coast (6-16)
15. Richmond (6-16)
16. Brisbane (5-17)
17. Gold Coast (5-17)

Finals:

Geelong d Fremantle
Collingwood d Sydney
Adelaide d Essendon (de ja vu)
Hawthorn d Melbourne

Fremantle d Hawthorn
Sydney d Adelaide

Collingwood d Fremantle
Geelong d Sydney

Collingwood d Geelong

 

[jeemak]

12. Western Bulldogs - I thought they were very ordinary last year and their record flattered them. We'll see I guess...

So, were we ordinary but got by for a top four spot because the rest of the competition was bad? Or was it because we were out of form, injured?

I understand we're a bit of an unknown this year, because a lot of games have walked out the door. But in 2010 the guys that contributed those games didn't have an impact anyway. But as you said, we'll see.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Someone finally posts an original looking ladder and these are the replies.

Go back to copy and pasting the 2010 ladder, people.

An Essendond fan over rates his side, gets called out for it by a few (including another Ess fan) and you call it an original ladder. Is it only original if Ess are not rotted to the bottom? Who cares anyway?!

My god you are a shit poster.

There has been variety all over the place in this thread, just because the majority have your team near the bottom does not mean there is a sheep mentality.

Nobody knows whats going to happen, we are making predictions based on what we know.. Doesnt mean its set in stone mate.

Dont be so precious. Or do. It is strangely compelling reading.

 

[Slattery_20]

Just did a prediction thing for the whole season; but worth noting it was while I was fairly pissed off at a Dees & a North supporter and half-cut, hence quite hopeful.

1 Collingwood
2 Western Bulldogs
3 Fremantle
4 Geelong Cats
5 Carlton
6 St. Kilda
7 Essendon ***
8 Hawthorn

9 Sydney Swans
10 Adelaide Crows
11 North Melbourne
12 Melbourne
13 Port Adelaide
14 West Coast Eagles
15 Richmond
16 Gold Coast Suns
17 Brisbane Lions

Cold hard light of day; drop us down two-three spots & Sydney come in.
Is my prediction anyway. Take or leave.

 

[Claypigeon]

I know its not perfect and after a few rounds of form I'd probably change a few tips. .. but I went through and tipped one of my tipping comps and recorded the tips. .. the resulting ladder was:

Pos / Team / Played / Wins / Losses / Draw / Points
1 Collingwood 22 18 4 0 72
2 Saints 22 17 5 0 68
3 Geelong 22 14 7 1 58
4 Adelaide 22 14 8 0 56
5 Carlton 22 14 8 0 56
6 Sydney 22 13 8 1 54
7 Bulldogs 22 13 9 0 52
8 Fremantle 22 12 10 0 48

9 Hawthorn 22 12 10 0 48
10 Melbourne 22 11 11 0 44
11 North 22 10 12 0 40
12 West Coast 22 8 14 0 32
13 Port 22 7 15 0 28
14 Lions 22 7 15 0 28
15 Richmond 22 6 16 0 24
16 Essendon 22 5 17 0 20
17 Gold Coast 22 5 17 0 20

While I cannot guarantee I still wasn't biased I did go back and adjust Carlton trying to be as realistic as possible. .. Considering half the top 8 teams I hate (Wobbles, 'Aints, Cows & Dogs) surely I couldn't have been too biased. ..

Adelaide like Melbourne have a handy draw and could surprise a few this year. .. or like last year I could be over estimating them. .. Hoping Jacobs has a good year for em though. ..

 

[Bardo State]

May as well.

1 Collingwood
2 Sydney
3 St Kilda
4 Hawthorn
5 North
6 Freo
7 Adelaide
8 Dogs
9 Carlton
10 Cats
11 Melbourne
12 Port
13 Richmond
14 Essendon
15 West Coast
16Brisbane

Not going to include GC as there is no way to predict how they will travel. If I had to guess I'd say the middle part of the bottom 9.

 

[Wernumberone]

I can't get the image to full size so right click it and use view image to see current 2011 odds.

Surprised GC are so short for the spoon.

 

[Rocky_Star_Pro]

I can't get the image to full size so right click it and use view item to see current 2011 odds.

Surprised GC are so short for the spoon.

But but but those odds have to be a lie, Essendon do have the worst list in the comp with a clueless rockstar as coach and his burntout assistant and will win the spoon

 

[Bardo State]

You think those odds mean anything? Do you think that the hawks are more likely to win the flag han the cats?

You don't have the worst list, just the 3rd worst

 

[Knight Ryders]

So, were we ordinary but got by for a top four spot because the rest of the competition was bad? Or was it because we were out of form, injured?

I understand we're a bit of an unknown this year, because a lot of games have walked out the door. But in 2010 the guys that contributed those games didn't have an impact anyway. But as you said, we'll see.

Honestly, outside of Collingwood, Saints and the Cats, the next lot of teams were a bit ordinary so to speak.

I just didn't think that the Bulldogs played like a top 4 team all year and seemed to get away with some wins simply due to the brilliance of some players, who I might add are still there. They're a big unknown for me, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them slip outside the 8.

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

I can't get the image to full size so right click it and use view image to see current 2011 odds.

Surprised GC are so short for the spoon.

Hawthorn 3rd favourite for the flag? That's shocking odds.

 

[Wernumberone]

Hawthorn 3rd favourite for the flag? That's shocking odds.

yYeah i agree. They remind me a bit of Freo from years ago who were always very high in premiership betting although no one really knew why.

Hawthorn have been living off reputation for a couple of years now rather than actual results and their whole list is over rated although they do have a couple of stars and i suppose if they stay fit and have big years then they would have to be a threat.

 

[BiG BanG]

I know i'm probably being viast when I say Collingwood will finish on top again but I can't see us failing. We are still a fairly young team with good young players to improve e.g Sidebottom, Beams, Dick, Wellingham, Goldsack, Macaffer, N.Brown, Reid, Blair and with the addition of Tarrant and Krakouer. I just can't see us going backwards in 2011. We also have the best depth in the AFL so even if we do cop a few injuries we still have good players to replace them, unlike Geelong for the past 3 years when they get a few injuries there replacements are no good.

The only team i see challenging us for 2011 is Hawthorn they have a good record against us and if there young players improve they will easily finish top 4.

Ladder Prediction:
1. Collingwood
2. Fremantle
3. Hawthorn
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Adelaide
6. St Kilda
7. Sydney
8. Geelong
9. Carlton
10. Melbourne
11. Port Adelaide
12. North Melbourne
13. Richmond
14. Gold Coast
15. Essendon
16. West Coast
17. Brisbane

 

[DaSawx]

Collingwood to win every year until all their players are 33.

 

[Suma Magic]

Essendon posters are taking this thread pretty personally. Relax.

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

yYeah i agree. They remind me a bit of Freo from years ago who were always very high in premiership betting although no one really knew why.

Hawthorn have been living off reputation for a couple of years now rather than actual results and their whole list is over rated although they do have a couple of stars and i suppose if they stay fit and have big years then they would have to be a threat.

So you don't know why we are high in premiership betting, yet we do have stars and if we remain fit (which is the case so far) we will be a threat.

............. Hard to understand I know.

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

Essendon posters are taking this thread pretty personally. Relax.

Haha, yeah they are a proud lot who have been battered from pillar to post the last 5 years. What else did you expect

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

1/.Collingwood-Can,t go past the Pies.Well drilled Side.Hard not to see them go back to back.
2/.Hawthorn-Should have their hunger back.The only side capable of denying the Pies this year.
3/.Fremantle-Sandilands is the key to Freo being top 4.Keep him on the Park and Freo will have another good year.Not quite up there with Pies and Hawks.
4/.Stkilda-The challenge for the Saints early on will be how quick they get over last years GF,s.A slow start will hurt them.
5/.Geelong-Losing Ablett will hurt the cats short term.Will still be dangerous and win enough to make the finals.
6/.Carlton-Will win enough to make the finals.Will be good enough to beat those outside the 8 but struggle to beat anyone in the 8.
7/.Bulldogs-Hard call this one.Capable to be top 4 if everything goes right.And thats the problem.Can,t see Hall repeating last years efforts.
8/.Adelaide-Will scrape in due to Home advantage.Will win just enough away to get them there.

9/.Melbourne-No surprise that the Dees will be the big improvers.Will just miss out on a top 8 though.
10/.North-Will be thereabouts come seasons end.A side that wouldn,t surprise making the 8 but also the same for not making it.
11/.Sydney-Hard shoes to fill for Longmire.Goodes and O'keefe a year older.Will win a few at home to keep them out of the bottom 4.Will find it hard to win away.
12/.Richmond-2nd half of last year was encouraging.A better understanding of Dimma,s game plan one year on will be the key.
13/.Esssendon-Which Essendon side will turnup this year is the question.The hot or the cold.Too many question marks if you ask me.
14/.Port-A stagnet year for Port.May win a few games early on but will struggle for the most part.
15/.West Coast-Wouldn,t surprise if they finish last.Either way its goodbye Worsfold.
16/.Brisbane-The irony of it all.The Lions to be thankful of the GC coming into the comp.
17/.Gold Coast-First and last year for a decade that they will finish last.

 

[ClintEastwood]

14/.Port-A stagnet year for Port.May win a few games early on but will struggle for the most part.

If it's a stagnet (sic) year for them, which do they drop from 10th to 14th?