2011 Ladder Predictions

[Hannabal]

We had 2 close losses missing important players as well, therefore we should have been 12th?
No. Losing by a kick = still losing.

You mean we didn't come 9th on percentage afterall ?

We should have beaten Collingwood twice instead of drawing and losing the other by a point; and if Clint Bartram hadn't of mistaken an umpire wearing pink for a Melb player wearing pink we would have beaten the Dogs on Friday night footy instead of losing by 4 points.

Throw in the Freo game in WA and if Jacky Watts kicks straight we're in the 8.

Aren't we ?

 

[Earl Hickey]

1.Collingwood
2.Geelong
3.Western Bulldogs
4.Hawthorn
5.St Kilda
6.Fremantle
7.North Melbourne
8.Adelaide

9.Carlton
10.Sydney
11.Melbourne
12.Port
13.Richmond
14.Essendon
15.Gold Coast
16.Brisbane
17.West Coast

 

[Slattery_20]

You mean we didn't come 9th on percentage afterall ?

We should have beaten Collingwood twice instead of drawing and losing the other by a point; and if Clint Bartram hadn't of mistaken an umpire wearing pink for a Melb player wearing pink we would have beaten the Dogs on Friday night footy instead of losing by 4 points.

Throw in the Freo game in WA and if Jacky Watts kicks straight we're in the 8.

Aren't we ?

Only counts for the Hawkers mate.
Did you know that players can actually get injured and not be available?
Incredibly unfortunate.

 

[Slax]

Collingwood - Premiers - will dominate the year (unfortunately)
Hawthorn - Hale will give them what they've missed - a decent ruckman.
Geelong - Less expectation will enable younger players to come through
Fremantle - Failure to secure enough wins in Melbourne will cost them a higher finish.
St Kilda - The increased reliance on the few will show up a lack of depth on the list.
North Melbourne - Will continue to improve as the youngester get more games into them.
Western Bulldogs - Age will mean they no longer have the pace they need and finishing power to challenge the higher teams.
Melbourne - Continue to improve, with Watts showing why he was #1 pcik.
---------------------------
Carlton - struggle with lack of class forward & back. Midfield will make them competitive.
Adelaide - Struggle away from home
Sydney - Age will catch up with key players
Richmond - Will fade towards end of season as talk of finals distracts them
Brisbane - Brown & Fev will play the full season and carry them over the line in most wins
Port Adelaide - Beiginning the rebuild will continue to unearth talent infront of empty seats
Gold Coast - Struggle early as they gel and late as the kids tire but will show that they will be a force in 2 years.
Essendon - Hird will discover that even being a club legend won't help this list or avoid the fans ire in a long season.
West Coast - Worsfold to be sacked by Queen's Birthday. List in a shambles and a priority pick beckons.

 

[hilly]

I'm shocked that you are tipping the Crows to improve.

1 - Collingwood
2 - St Kilda
3 - Western Bulldogs
4 - Fremantle
5 - Hawthorn
6 - Geelong
7 - Sydney
8 - Carlton

9 - North Melbourne
10 - Adelaide
11 - Melbourne
12 - Port Adelaide
13 - Richmond
14 - Gold Coast
15 - Essendon
16 - Brisbane
17 - West Coast

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

We had 2 close losses missing important players as well, therefore we should have been 12th?
No. Losing by a kick = still losing. We didn't have good enough cover for Fletch and Stanton and Slattery (lol), we weren't good enough. You didn't have good enough cover for Renouf, not good enough.
Beating Collingwood in the last round, when they'd sewn up 1st a month previous, isn't as important as you'd like to think. They were cruising in 3rd.
Hawks, in top gear, can beat anyone.
But you can't play a full season going flat out. No-one can.

I think you're absolutely kidding yourself if you actually think you're a better side than Fremantle. And I think you're kidding yourself if you think you're going to improve more than them, with their quality youth.

Slatts, we had 6 ruckman on our list, and 5 of them were unable to take the field in the early months of the year(Taylor-leg, Skipper- Hamstring/knee, Bailey- Knee).
Call it what you will but that's a major issue to try and get through, and it doesn't have much to do with not being good enough. We have just as many ruckman as any other club, it's just that ours were injured at the same time.
You injure 3 of any clubs senior ruck stocks and see how they can cover it.

How would Collingwood have gone if Jolly, Fraser and Brown were not available, and they had to rely on Wood for the first half of the year?
I bet he would have been on the end of some last quarter rag-dolling, just like Renouf was.

I never mentioned the Collingwood win like it meant anything....not sure why you are.

Let's not get bogged down in ifs and buts.
You think that Hawthorn being rated a top 4 chance is laughable(so it seems), yet all I've tried to do is explain to you why many think that it's not out of reach, especially when you take into account that it wasn't even that far out of our reach in 2010, even though we had the worst start to a season in living memory.

Maybe if we'd finished down with you guys I'd agree, as that would be a massive step, but from 8th to the Top 4, when you've got blokes like Hodge, Rioli, Franklin and Roughead....it's not really that 'laughable'.

 

[Slattery_20]

I flicked 'off' on your season 5 goals down at half time, with 2 ruckmen going up against the undersized Michael Johnson, and Sandilands pretty much sitting down on the forward flank.
Of that side, I can't see any of Bateman, Guerra or Osborne scaling the heights again (and Brown gone). Rick Ladson appears to be doing a very good impression of Dean Solomon in his last few years at Essendon, overweight and fairly peeved about it.
I just don't see the replacements yet. Shiels, maybe. Whitecross, maybe. Muston doesn't look like he's a coach's favourite. None of them really convincing.
I'm sure you'll find a few kids here or there. But will they be allowed to develop, or will they be stifled (again) for the older, big clunky blokes? Hale will just be another bloke getting run around by a younger, faster opponent.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I flicked 'off' on your season 5 goals down at half time, with 2 ruckmen going up against the undersized Michael Johnson, and Sandilands pretty much sitting down on the forward flank.
Of that side, I can't see any of Bateman, Guerra or Osborne scaling the heights again (and Brown gone). Rick Ladson appears to be doing a very good impression of Dean Solomon in his last few years at Essendon, overweight and fairly peeved about it.
I just don't see the replacements yet. Shiels, maybe. Whitecross, maybe. Muston doesn't look like he's a coach's favourite. None of them really convincing.
I'm sure you'll find a few kids here or there. But will they be allowed to develop, or will they be stifled (again) for the older, big clunky blokes? Hale will just be another bloke getting run around by a younger, faster opponent.

The Freo game was an abomination. We couldn't hit a target even when we got the ball. It was excruciating to watch us go out like that.
Freo outran us, and when we did manage to go forward our delivery to Franklin and Roughead was abysmal, constantly sitting it on their head, when they had 2 opponents to contend with.

That seems to be the issue here though.
Hawk supporters remember the Cat's/Saints and Bulldogs games amongst others and think 'We're not far off it, if only we hadn't fallen over in the first 6 rounds', and outsiders say 'You got spanked by Freo in the finals and lost to Port and Swans on the run home, you are nowhere near it!'.

So was the Freo game reality, or was the run of form against the top 4?
It's clear that some people think the former, some the latter. That's ok, this is a prediction thread.

Tbh, I think our playing group needs a bit of a freshen up, but that's not really what concerns me.
It's between the ears that I question.

 

[Slattery_20]

5th-7th is about right. Not in the top bracket, but better than most.
I think you're caught between last year's "get our 2008 22 back on the park = instant flag" mode, and "hang on, we have to do something a bit differently here" mode.
I'm not sure there's a consensus within.

 

[The_cockateil]

1. Collingwood (Can't see us go down by much, only really improve.)
2. St Kilda (Still have a good season left in them, possibly challenge for minor premiership.)
3. Geelong (Under the radar, still a good unit if they get a good coach.)
4. Fremantle (They can do it if they really tighten their game plan and utilise their players well.)


5. Hawthorn (Could break into the top 4, but I think this is where they will finish up.)
6. WB (Not a bad fall, especially when they are doing a mini-rebuild.)
7. North (Have some solid talent, could even finish higher.)
8. Sydney (Could finish as high as fifth, but we'll see after losing Roos and Kirk.)

9. Adelaide
10. Carlton
11. Melbourne
12. Port
13. Essendon
14. Brisbane
15. West Coast
16. GC
17. Richmond

 

[4#Didak#4]

1.Collingwood - Looking for a challenger

Genuine Challengers:
2.St Kilda - Like a terminator they just keep coming
3.Hawthorn - Are a credible threat on their day
4.Geelong - Not done yet
5.Western Bulldogs - still have quality to challenge
6.Fremantle - have potential if they can win away consistently

Respect:
7.Melbourne - They are coming quicker than most expect
8.Sydney - Always competitive
9.Adelaide - Have work to do
10.Carlton - Will be a perennial fringe club for a number of years
11.North Melbourne - needs another year to develop a very nice list

No Chance:
12.Port - rebuilding
13.Essendon - Question marks everywhere
14.Richmond - improving but still massive queries on the quality of list

Looking for draft picks:
15.Gold Coast - Lets not get to expectant too early, most are kids
16.Brisbane - Lost the plot only wins will come from J Browns boot
17.West Coast - Also lost the plot

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

5th-7th is about right. Not in the top bracket, but better than most.
I think you're caught between last year's "get our 2008 22 back on the park = instant flag" mode, and "hang on, we have to do something a bit differently here" mode.
I'm not sure there's a consensus within.

As supporters we are probably caught in that thinking, but not so at the club.

 

[The_cockateil]

As supporters we are probably caught in that thinking, but not so at the club.

Depends on how much they fire in the first 3 games. 3 wins and you'll be top 4, 2 wins and you'll be fighting for the top 4, 1 win and it'll be 09 or 10 all over again I believe.

 

[TigerGlory]

Depends on how much they fire in the first 3 games. 3 wins and you'll be top 4, 2 wins and you'll be fighting for the top 4, 1 win and it'll be 09 or 10 all over again I believe.

Maybe if Hawthorn are 1-9 or whatever they were this year then you could make a case for them repeating 09 and 10.

They could lose the first three games and still finish 1st easily. If they are drawn Collingwood, St Kilda and say, Freo at Subi as their first three games then I wouldnt be expecting them to win any of them!

 

[Benno_900]

1. Collingwood
2. Hawthorn
3. Fremantle
4. St Kilda
5. Geelong
6. North Melbourne
7. Sydney
8. Melbourne
---------------------
9. Western Bulldogs
10. Carlton
11. Richmond
12. Adelaide
13. Essendon
14. Gold Coast
15. Brisbane
16. West Coast
17. Port Adelaide

 

[Sando Pets]

1.Collingwood - Looking for a challenger

Genuine Challengers:
2.St Kilda - Like a terminator they just keep coming
3.Hawthorn - Are a credible threat on their day
4.Geelong - Not done yet
5.Western Bulldogs - still have quality to challenge
6.Fremantle - have potential if they can win away consistently

Respect:
7.Melbourne - They are coming quicker than most expect
8.Sydney - Always competitive
9.Adelaide - Have work to do
10.Carlton - Will be a perennial fringe club for a number of years
11.North Melbourne - needs another year to develop a very nice list

No Chance:
12.Port - rebuilding
13.Essendon - Question marks everywhere
14.Richmond - improving but still massive queries on the quality of list

Looking for draft picks:
15.Gold Coast - Lets not get to expectant too early, most are kids
16.Brisbane - Lost the plot only wins will come from J Browns boot
17.West Coast - Also lost the plot

Nice work.

-------

But about that bottom tier . . .

I think back to the top 8 hype about WCE last year . . .

Who is going to be the WCE of 2011?

It might just be the WCE , but the home ground factor is significant for both Brissie and West Coast. In 2011 they won't be playing for a 'certain' top 8 spot, which will aid them. Gold Coast will probably win 6-8 games, if you look at how other debut clubs have faired.

Expectation was a big killer this year: for Brissie, WCE & the Dogs . . . (And some other team, that I can't recall the name of right now . . .)

 

[SupportMe]

Expectation was a big killer this year: for Brissie, WCE & the Dogs . . . (And some other team, that I can't recall the name of right now . . .)

You missed two - Adelaide and Hawthorn.

 

[cosby]

Pretty well thought out.. But I disagree with your top 4. Even if the pies lose some unexpected games they should still be Minor Premiers. The Saints' belief is shot.. They know the gameplan doesn't work and Roo will never be as good as he was in 08/09 again. Or Kosi. Or Milne. So just swap Pies and Saints and I am in 100% agreeance!

Except for calling Hawks players elite.

I don't think St Kilda's belief is shot at all. That's just your perpective.

Hawthorn has a number of 'A' graders, and if they turn up most weeks and play their best Hawthorn is a Top 4 club, no doubt.

 

[cosby]

5th-7th is about right. Not in the top bracket, but better than most.
I think you're caught between last year's "get our 2008 22 back on the park = instant flag" mode, and "hang on, we have to do something a bit differently here" mode.
I'm not sure there's a consensus within.

So after saying that a Top 4 finish and reasons for predicting it were BS and laughable, now you say a 5th place finish could be likely?

Pedantic much.

 

[Coolangatta]

The Crows have eight outgoing players ... Goodwin, McLeod, Edwards, Burton, Bock, Hentschel, Griffin and Jacky.

So most the Crow boys are pretty shy, eh?

 

[sabre_ac]

These threads are always ridiculously wrong, I have a hard enough time tipping where my own team will finish let alone the exact position of others.

So here are my tips.

Collingwood will be top 2

Freo will be top 4 (Agreed allot rests on Barlows recovery and Palmer to recapture some form)

Sydney / Adelaide will be in the 8

One side will drop from top 4 out of the 8...I'm tipping Doggies.

West Coast will finish last

Carlton will start with a huge run only to be exposed in the home leg for the fronter runners they are.

 

[liam_13]

i know a lot of the predictions are fairly mainstream, but surely out of 45 pages someone will get it right, and be able to bump it....right? surely not everyone would be way off..

and i believe fremantles top 4 hopes rest on not only barlow and palmer, but sandilands as well. if he gets injured for more then a month, i would expect freo to struggle to get a home final. but heres hoping he doesnt. great player to watch in a great team to watch.

 

[Madtiger2006]

1 fremantle-their first premiership
2 collingwood-game plans don't last forever
3 adelaide-they're back again
4 carlton-getting close
5 melbourne-on the rise
6 hawthorn-need something extra
7 north melbourne-sneaking up
8 st kilda-going down
9 western-window closing
10 geelong-getting old, ablett gone
11 richmond-here we come
12 sydney-one step back to go forward again
13 port adelaide-doing it tough
14 gold coast-going ok
15 brisbane-need youth
16 west coast-still rebuilding
17 essendon-struggling

 

[Kimbo]

1. Collingwood
2. Western Bulldogs
3. Hawthorn
4. St Kilda
-----------------
5. Geelong
6. Fremantle
7. North Melbourne
8. Adelaide
-----------------
9. Melbourne
10. Sydney
11. Richmond
12. Carlton
13. Port Adelaide
14. Essendon
15. West Coast
16. Gold Coast
17. Brisbane

One of the few seemingly close to my thoughts, at least in relation to Dogs and Cats. Dogs to be Pies main rivals. Freo to continue in 2010 form, and Subi advantage seeing them make top 4. St Kilda depth a challenge, made up for with continued determination and that 'Saints Footy' stuff.

Hawthorn continue to be overrated some, Geelong to slide some, but on pure W/L basis, not that much. Adelaide to recover 09 form, North to win 2-3 more games following rigid adherence to 2010 devt plan and increased fitness to carry out game plan (mid tier and kids to both take a step up together, for a change).

My variation...

1. Collingwood
2. Western Bulldogs
3. Fremantle
4. St Kilda
-----------------
5. Hawthorn
6. Geelong
7. North Melbourne
8. Adelaide
-----------------
9. Sydney (Bloods spirit sees them win games they should lose)
10. Carlton (As with most 'big 4' teams, a tendency to be overrated. Reliance on Judd, overrated mids and small fwds.)
11. Port Adelaide (Will surprise many)
12. Essendon (Hird gives Dons their mojo back, with crowd factor helping out)
13. Melbourne (Similar output to 2010, but not yet mature enough)
14. Richmond (Similar dev't track to 2010, with an additional new bunch of players)
16. Gold Coast (Gieschen hands them a few wins )
16. Brisbane (A step back to go fwds, a year later than they should have)
17. West Coast (Woosha to be sacked, first to finish 17th!

 

[Zarrix]

1. Collingwood
2. Hawthorn
3. Carlton
4. St. Kilda

5. Fremantle
6. Adelaide
7. Geelong
8. Sydney

9. Bulldogs
10. Melbourne
11. North Melb
12. Gold Coast
13. Essendon
14. Port
15. Richmond
16. West Coast
17. Brisbane

Big call is that the Bulldogs won't make the finals. I think they are done. Brisbane for the spoon, a few foul moves from voss has destroyed them, lost a few of their core players...

Richmond and West Coast to be down for another year. West Coast have such a bad list, it is hard to see where any improvement can come from, especially with the coaching staff they have.

Geelong will still make the finals, but will be first week fodder. Hawthorn to finally get back on track after 08, Carlton to finally see their draft picks pay some dividends.