List Mgmt. 2015 Trade, Draft, Rookie Draft and FA Megathread

[TheLastEmperor]

For a 25 year old KPF that has never kicked more than 40 goals in a season... well he will probably get there this year. He also has a couple of stuffed ankles doesn't he?

If GC get pick 10 they are making out like bandits.

This would also send Schulz off to the Fremantle Dad's Army yes?

I'm just speculating on pick 10. I think that'll be used and it'll be a quick transaction.

Despite their poor year Port are in flag mode. If they get Dixon fit he'll compliment their list nicely.

Yup Rossy will be all over Schultz.

 

[Periphery]

I like the draft points system but your suggestion shows why it isn't a full proof system as 26 and Murds does not equate to pick 10.

The Dunstan trade won't happen because we won't trade him. I would personally put a draft pick value of 15-20 on him not 26 but we don't have a pick around 15-20 therefore if we want Adel's picks and are willing to move on Dunstan then Adel marginally win that trade.

But I wasn't suggesting 26 and Murds is worth pick 10? Brian suggested our 2nd and 2 players for 10. I was talking about 24 and Murds for 13. That values Murds at ~39. I generally just use current ladder position and ignore compo picks to avoid further speculation (although in this case I should have dropped our 2nd down a spot).

Regardless of whether we will trade Dunstan or not: you put a value of pick 26 on Dunstan by saying that 6+26 is a possible trade as well.

 

[AuntieBarrels]

It's funny, they said Ryder was the missing piece to the premiership... lol

 

[bird_man]

If Port are willing to give up 700k a year for 5 years then you'd think they'd be prepared to give up their first pick for him.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

But I wasn't suggesting 26 and Murds is worth pick 10? Brian suggested our 2nd and 2 players for 10. I was talking about 24 and Murds for 13. That values Murds at ~39. I generally just use current ladder position and ignore compo picks to avoid further speculation (although in this case I should have dropped our 2nd down a spot).

Regardless of whether we will trade Dunstan or not: you put a value of pick 26 on Dunstan by saying that 6+26 is a possible trade as well.

You've lost me. I never said Dunstan was worth pick 26. I gave two separate hypothetical trades.

 

[Periphery]

You've lost me. I never said Dunstan was worth pick 26. I gave two separate hypothetical trades.

If
6+26=12+13
and
6+Dunstan=12+13
Then
Dunstan = 26 cause why would we give up Dunstan if he is worth more than 26 when 26 would get the job done?

 

[Defacto]

I'm just speculating on pick 10. I think that'll be used and it'll be a quick transaction.

Despite their poor year Port are in flag mode. If they get Dixon fit he'll compliment their list nicely.

Yup Rossy will be all over Schultz.

Rossy will love Schulz likes his players old hahagaha

 

[TheLastEmperor]

If
6+26=12+13
and
6+Dunstan=12+13
Then
Dunstan = 26 cause why would we give up Dunstan if he is worth more than 26 when 26 would get the job done?

the flip are you on about? They are two separate hypotheticals stop thinking they must be identical value.

 

[Phoenix_9]

the flip are you on about? They are two separate hypotheticals stop thinking they must be identical value.

Periphery he was just saying that if 26 wasn't enough, that dunstan could satisfy the crows

 

[mighty sainters]

Let's get real for a sec.

Minch is OOC and a fringe small forward. He's worth absolutely nothing.

Ross is contracted and is developing into an average full time midfielder without much versatility to his game. Pick 30-40 in a shallow draft at best.

Saunders is contracted but I refer to Minch's value as a comparison. Worth absolutely zilch.

Murdoch is also contracted and has a couple of nice attributes that may appeal to teams however he's a flanker that hasn't developed into a midfielder. Pick 40-50 at best. An upgrade from our 2nd to pick 10? LOL

If we want to create an extra first rounder then we need to either part with a consistent best 22 player that isn't closing in on retirement as a starting point OR pick 6 and something else for 2 x late first rounders.

Eg.
Dunstan and 6 for 12 and 13
6 and 26 for 12 and 13

(Of course the above Dunstan trade won't happen)

If I can interject here with another line of thinking. The point system is a great way for smart teams to get better value for their picks, because the point system doesn't change year-to-year to reflect the relative strength/weakness of a draft.

Basically, if you're a team that is going to pick up academy/father-son players, and it's going to cost you a lot of points (i.e GWS, Sydney, Brisbane), then you're more open to trade good picks that for multiple lower picks that cumulatively have a higher points value.

Examples: Brisbane have picks 19, 37 and 55 (not counting #1), GWS have 10, 28, 46 and Sydney have picks 15, 33, 51
Say we trade Minch, Murds and Saundo for pick 30, 31 and 39 (629, 606 and 446 points respectively) and have 24 and 42 (785 and 395)
Deals which are greatly in favour of the other team include: 30, 31, 39 and 42 for 10; 31, 39 and 42 for 19; 24, 39 and 42 for 15; etc (I could make up a lot of these, but you see the point)

Basically, my point is that before now, 2-3 not so great players =/= a first rounder (except on here )
With the point system now, that can actually be the case as 2 clubs may be after different things (ie points rather than specific picks). If we're smart, we can turn our fringe 22 players into good picks

 

[TheLastEmperor]

If I can interject here with another line of thinking. The point system is a great way for smart teams to get better value for their picks, because the point system doesn't change year-to-year to reflect the relative strength/weakness of a draft.

Basically, if you're a team that is going to pick up academy/father-son players, and it's going to cost you a lot of points (i.e GWS, Sydney, Brisbane), then you're more open to trade good picks that for multiple lower picks that cumulatively have a higher points value.

Examples: Brisbane have picks 19, 37 and 55 (not counting #1), GWS have 10, 28, 46 and Sydney have picks 15, 33, 51
Say we trade Minch, Murds and Saundo for pick 30, 31 and 39 (629, 606 and 446 points respectively) and have 24 and 42 (785 and 395)
Deals which are greatly in favour of the other team include: 30, 31, 39 and 42 for 10; 31, 39 and 42 for 19; 24, 39 and 42 for 15; etc (I could make up a lot of these, but you see the point)

Basically, my point is that before now, 2-3 not so great players =/= a first rounder (except on here )
With the point system now, that can actually be the case as 2 clubs may be after different things (ie points rather than specific picks). If we're smart, we can turn our fringe 22 players into good picks

Yup I've said the same thing in the past that the point system can benefit when trading with teams that have academy/father son players to draft. The example I used was re getting James Aish. Our 2015 and 2016 second rounders (if we have similar finishing positions) have more value to Brissy than pick 9 therefore would appeal to them more. This works in their favour because they need to get Hipwood and Keays this year and Allison next year. Spreading the picks over two years further appeals to them. But unfortunately Adel don't have academy draftees so it doesn't work in the hypothetical that was suggested.

 

[saint_]

Michington / Saunders / Murdoch pick #60 at best. Bundling all those average values doesn't net you a better value especially not in the first round

 

[Roadto2018]

Maybe something we should consider instead, what if Adelaide came to us with pick 13 for dunstan?

 

[Roadto2018]

Tucker and Collins would go down nicely

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Maybe something we should consider instead, what if Adelaide came to us with pick 13 for dunstan?

It's a fair trade probably slightly in our favour but I still wouldn't do it as its a dangerous precedent to trade out our young stars. Offer up Brad Crouch and I'd start to listen....

 

[Keg on legs]

Maybe something we should consider instead, what if Adelaide came to us with pick 13 for dunstan?

The question is: would pick 13 return us someone better than LD? I don't love him as much as some on here, but he's still a bloody handy little player. It would be a risk IMO. If that 13 could be used to lure a Bennell type etc then it's maybe worthwhile, but if we have to take t to the draft I'm not so sure.

 

[66sainter]

If only Freo were playing Melbourne this week...

 

[Keg on legs]

If only Freo were playing Melbourne this week...

Melb would still lose. Don't forget, they are the master tankers

 

[AuntieBarrels]

Maybe something we should consider instead, what if Adelaide came to us with pick 13 for dunstan?

Would never happen imo. The guy will be a Sainter for life I reckon. Especially due to the fact that he has a very strong connection with a very iconic number of the club that Lenny passed onto him last season. The club also understands that Dunstan is a great leader already, and it will be very hard to let him go. I think Lenny will be back in the club in some form sooner rather than later, and I just don't seem him and the club letting Dunstan leave.

During last season's trade period, if we proposed this idea of trading pick 13 for Dunstan, this forum would have gone ballistic. Lukey is just suffering from a bit of second year blues, adjusting to a bigger body, and after a couple more pre-seasons he will be a beast.

There are very few first year players (Dunstan in 2014) out there who can have a 30 possession game and kick a couple of goals against a West Coast midfield in their first season (obviously West Coast weren't as good last year, but they still had the brownlow medal winner running around in there).

 

[King_Steele]

Would never happen imo. The guy will be a Sainter for life I reckon. Especially due to the fact that he has a very strong connection with a very iconic number of the club that Lenny passed onto him last season. The club also understands that Dunstan is a great leader already, and it will be very hard to let him go. I think Lenny will be back in the club in some form sooner rather than later, and I just don't seem him and the club letting Dunstan leave.

During last season's trade period, if we proposed this idea of trading pick 13 for Dunstan, this forum would have gone ballistic. Lukey is just suffering from a bit of second year blues, adjusting to a bigger body, and after a couple more pre-seasons he will be a beast.

There are very first second year players (Dunstan in 2014) out there who can have a 30 possession game and kick a couple of goals against a West Coast midfield in their first season (obviously West Coast weren't as good last year, but they still had the brownlow medal winner running around in there).

+1.

 

[Defacto]

Michington / Saunders / Murdoch pick #60 at best. Bundling all those average values doesn't net you a better value especially not in the first round

Agree only way you can manage it is with GOP talls or high potential done nothing talls

 

[Defacto]

If Port are willing to give up 700k a year for 5 years then you'd think they'd be prepared to give up their first pick for him.

Agree plus they don't need more young talent, they need players to get them into a GF

 

[Sir Skid]

Agree only way you can manage it is with GOP talls or high potential done nothing talls

My point exactly with Spence.
Unrealized "potential"

 

[gringo2011]

Not sure that means a whole lot. Armo was a late bloomer and struggled to break into a team in premiership contention. He did show a few glimpses of his talent when given a rare opportunity though (3 Brownlow votes against Hawthorn before being dropped two weeks later). Ross is struggling to keep his spot in a bottom 6 team. I'm sure you could a lot more mids who record ordinary stats for their first few years and then get delisted/fade away compared to those who suddenly turn into stars in their mid twenties. I'd love for Ross to follow Armo's lead and become an elite inside mid but I think his ceiling is a fair bit lower - he's likely to turn out to be a serviceable 20-22 disposal per game inside mid...would hold a spot on most lists but I don't think he's vital to our future considering our inside mid stocks. If we could get a pick in the twenties for him which could help us snare a Motlop/Kelly/Bennell I'd go for it.

I get what you are saying but qualify that with the fact that we were a stable team then so players didn't get a look in. Now we are in a bulk development mode so getting games into lots of players. That means unless you dominate you come in and out. Ross has had some good high 20s games and is slowly going upwards all the time. I reckon he will become a good solid player and not worth a trade out unless its for an established superstar. He's the type that could make you look dumb in a trade.

 

[TheJackal]

Dunstan will be a saint for life, no doubt about it. He was fantastic last year, this year he struggled at times but he is learning a lot about a changing body which failed him on a few occasions this year. He will be a future captain and play 250.

I'll give you guys an interesting fact/question which very few people will be able guess without cheating. Luke was #2 last year among Rising Stars for contested possessions. Who was #1?