Prediction 2017 Ladder (Bumped - two rounds to go)

[catempire]

I do my predictions when I know which team(s) have suffered the unluckiest preseason injuries and setbacks.
Right now it's pointless as one player can be the difference between making 8th spot or 11th spot (eg. Sandilands).

Fair enough. I look forward to seeing yours later in the preseason.

 

[Vdubs]

Really hope you're right, Dubs.

You're clearly one of the most astute posters on here and you are sensibly circumspect pretty much all the time.

So I'm surprised to see you so bullish about AB.

I can remember many occasions when Pods was a genuine threat for us, rather than simply a role player.

As things stand, I have to say I would think that Black will be just about the polar opposite of that during his Cats career.

Will be delighted to be proved wrong, though.

Without back tracking, I don't expect him to be as high impact as Pods was, but as far as revelations, Pods was a surprise to most. I think Black could also be. Had a bit to do with him in earlier days, and pre-injury, he was very well thought of. Right now, he looks a long way off anything Pods gave us, I agree

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Without back tracking, I don't expect him to be as high impact as Pods was, but as far as revelations, Pods was a surprise to most. I think Black could also be. Had a bit to do with him in earlier days, and pre-injury, he was very well thought of. Right now, he looks a long way off anything Pods gave us, I agree

Black's the type of player we've been missing since Mooney retired and I hazard a guess that he'll play a similar role.

 

[Vdubs]

Black's the type of player we've been missing since Mooney retired and I hazard a guess that he'll play a similar role.

Little shorter than Mooney, and less mongrel.
I think he could be more like a Jack Gunston.
Time will tell.

 

[Ricketz]

1. GWS
2. Sydney
3. Geelong
4. WB
5. Crows
6. St Kilda
7. Melbourne
8. WCE
9. Hawthorn
10. North Melbourne
11. Port Adelaide
12. Fremantle
13. Richmond
14. Essendon
15. Collingwood
16. GCS
17. Carlton
18. Brisbane

 

[Ricketz]

Gut feelings based on 2016, and that is tarnished by our very last match- no particular order here,

1. Bulldogs/GWS
2. Hawks /Swans/Bombers
3. Crows/Eagles/Saints/Pies/Demons/NM/Tigers/Freo/Port/Carlton/GC
4. Lions

I'll slot us in between groups 2 and 3.

Can really see Bombers improving

Wildcard team for me is GC- can do anything this year, and Pies should also climb.

I'm not sure preseason will add anything to this guesstimate, but as long as we don't lose any more players....

Curious why you rate Hawthorn so highly? They were cooked at the end of last year, had quite a few close wins, and their mid replacements are at best on par with Mitchell and Lewis losses. Couple in Hodgey, Burgoyne being another year older and Roughy coming off a year of cancer treatment (and being over 30), I can see them missing the 8 entirely. I think they will scrape in on the back of a few close wins again, but I reckon this year could mirror our 2015.

 

[TEDDY24INC]

Curious why you rate Hawthorn so highly? They were cooked at the end of last year, had quite a few close wins, and their mid replacements are at best on par with Mitchell and Lewis losses. Couple in Hodgey, Burgoyne being another year older and Roughy coming off a year of cancer treatment (and being over 30), I can see them missing the 8 entirely. I think they will scrape in on the back of a few close wins again, but I reckon this year could mirror our 2015.

Yep hawks in strife imo

 

[Vdubs]

Curious why you rate Hawthorn so highly? They were cooked at the end of last year, had quite a few close wins, and their mid replacements are at best on par with Mitchell and Lewis losses. Couple in Hodgey, Burgoyne being another year older and Roughy coming off a year of cancer treatment (and being over 30), I can see them missing the 8 entirely. I think they will scrape in on the back of a few close wins again, but I reckon this year could mirror our 2015.

Yep hawks in strife imo

Until they are entrenched out of the 8, they are dangerous.
Even 2016, we clearly appeared to be the better team, and they limped into top 4, but when it was there to be won, they stuffed up- we did not actually put them down. Doggies did, convincingly, so they appear to be off 1-3, but, IF JOM, and Tom Mitchell and Roughy all fire up, they will have the guns to fire another shot, imho.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Black's the type of player we've been missing since Mooney retired and I hazard a guess that he'll play a similar role.

Will be interesting to see what happens up forward this year. No true CHF but 3 of those medium/3rd tall types in Black, Menzel and House. Very interested to see what each of them can provide us in 2017.

 

[cynical]

Until they are entrenched out of the 8, they are dangerous.
Even 2016, we clearly appeared to be the better team, and they limped into top 4, but when it was there to be won, they stuffed up- we did not actually put them down. Doggies did, convincingly, so they appear to be off 1-3, but, IF JOM, and Tom Mitchell and Roughy all fire up, they will have the guns to fire another shot, imho.

Hawks were shaky last year.

Take out 3 elite kicks and replace them with a kid who hasnt played in 2 years and Tom Mitchell who is a pure inside mid with average disposal and their keepings off game is done.

Another problem is no 3rd man up and no ceglar. Big boy mcevoy is a servicable ruck but he struggles against the taller rucks.

Weak ruck devision, weak midfield + a lot of older players means they will get run over like we did in 2015.

More even competition so their oldies will have to play at a high level every week instead of just turning it on against the good teams.

 

[Ricketz]

Until they are entrenched out of the 8, they are dangerous.
Even 2016, we clearly appeared to be the better team, and they limped into top 4, but when it was there to be won, they stuffed up- we did not actually put them down. Doggies did, convincingly, so they appear to be off 1-3, but, IF JOM, and Tom Mitchell and Roughy all fire up, they will have the guns to fire another shot, imho.

Fair call, their experience could carry them.

 

[catempire]

Will be interesting to see what happens up forward this year. No true CHF but 3 of those medium/3rd tall types in Black, Menzel and House. Very interested to see what each of them can provide us in 2017.

House a medium?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

House a medium?

Well I wouldn't consider him a CHF/FF. So what's that make him.

 

[catempire]

Well I wouldn't consider him a CHF/FF. So what's that make him.

I've only seen him a few times and he looks massive and immobile. If he's not a CHF/FF he might make a good hat rack.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

I've only seen him a few times and he looks massive and immobile. If he's not a CHF/FF he might make a good hat rack.

How much of that is due to his well publicised lack of aerobic ability and endurance?

 

[catempire]

How much of that is due to his well publicised lack of aerobic ability and endurance?

Given he's 194cm and built like a brick ****house, I'd guess not much.

Lucky he can pluck a mark.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Given he's 194cm and built like a brick ****house, I'd guess not much.

Lucky he can pluck a mark.

I guess we'll have to wait and see what he's like once games start having now done an AFL preseason, at present I wouldn't play him ahead of Taylor (welp) or Stanley as the CHF and thought he was similar to Black, so wait and see I guess.

 

[catempire]

I guess we'll have to wait and see what he's like once games start having now done an AFL preseason, at present I wouldn't play him ahead of Taylor (welp) or Stanley as the CHF and thought he was similar to Black, so wait and see I guess.

Yep, he'd have to come on a fair bit or we'd have to suffer at least a couple of KPF injuries for him to get in the frame.

 

[Cattery]

From the (admittedly very little) I've seen of House I'd say if he plays AFL this year we're pretty much stuffed.

About the only thing in his favour is that he's ahead of Buzza, but that isn't saying a whole lot as he barely looks up to VFL standard.

 

[ChookNorris]

1. GWS
2. Sydney
3. WB
4. Geelong
5. Adelaide
6. W.C.E
7. Hawthorn
8. Melbourne
9. Fremantle
10. St Kilda
11. Collingwood
12. Essendon
13. Port Adelaide
14. Richmond
15. North Melbourne
16. Gold Coast
17. Carlton
18. Brisbane

 

[GHS33]

1 GWS
2 Sydney
3 Geelong
4 Adelaide
5 Western Bulldogs
6 West Coast
7 Port Adelaide
8 Collingwood

9 Hawthorn
10 Essendon
11 Melbourne
12 St Kilda
13 Gold Coast
14 Richmond
15 Carlton
16 Fremantle
17 North Melbourne
18 Brisbane

 

[Hamingja]

1: GWS and Flag.
No idea 2 to 15
16: Gold Coast
17: Carlton
Spoon Brisbane.

I have a ladder tipping comp with Dad every year and this is about the conclusion I came to as well.

Every team contending has holes except GWS.

I think I had Carlton for the spoon and Brisbane second last but even with the shit teams, as they get to play each other twice, if they have a beyond expectations year they can win 6-8 games just by beating the other cellar dwellers and an upset or two along the way.

Now I don't think Carlton or Brisbane could do that but potentially Gold Coast could win 8 games like that and drag themselves up the ladder. Good spine, depleted mids. If Ablett stays fit, Swallow back, Barlow and Hanley in, a young player or two steps up in the middle, they could piece together a competitive midfield against bottom 10 teams and won't be many spines better than Thompson, May, Lynch and Wright getting around.

 

[Bobby_]

potentially Gold Coast could win 8 games like that and drag themselves up the ladder. Good spine, depleted mids. If Ablett stays fit, Swallow back, Barlow and Hanley in, a young player or two steps up in the middle, they could piece together a competitive midfield against bottom 10 teams and won't be many spines better than Thompson, May, Lynch and Wright getting around.

They are my smokie to make the eight.
Just need to wait a little longer as they are a team that have had consistent setbacks in the medical room. Just when you think a certain name will be good for round 1, they miss the next month or more but overall, the biggest addition to me is Lyons, I rate that kid and was surprised Adelaide were prepared to let him go but he brings precisely what Gold Coast needed, a defensive minded midfielder to help out Swallow. He is also a strong body for his size and wins clearances so a very good signing.

Back-line is now in their prime.
Forward line has the most upside of any other team in the league, including GWS, as Wright and Martin are on the cusp of elevating their games quite considerably in my opinion.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

They are my smokie to make the eight.
Just need to wait a little longer as they are a team that have had consistent setbacks in the medical room. Just when you think a certain name will be good for round 1, they miss the next month or more but overall, the biggest addition to me is Lyons, I rate that kid and was surprised Adelaide were prepared to let him go but he brings precisely what Gold Coast needed, a defensive minded midfielder to help out Swallow. He is also a strong body for his size and wins clearances so a very good signing.

Back-line is now in their prime.
Forward line has the most upside of any other team in the league, including GWS, as Wright and Martin are on the cusp of elevating their games quite considerably in my opinion.

Nothing to do with prepared. It's like Jansen in that Lyons was uncontracted, he left iirc for more certainty with selection.

 

[Bobby_]

Nothing to do with prepared. It's like Jansen in that Lyons was uncontracted, he left iirc for more certainty with selection.

well even better news for those who are looking at placing Suns in their top eight as he's a valued player at a team that likely pushes for a top four spot.