2017 Ladder Predictions

[Papa G]

The majority of people have pretty much this years top 8 minus North Melbourne. I really only think the Sydney teams are locks.
Geelong and Hawks have lost some serious experience. Injuries to a couple key players, especially for Geelong could be very damaging. Bulldogs finished the regular season 7th. They will be very much become the hunted and will not fly under the radar. Their tactics will be studied and pulled apart. West Coast most damaging player is out for the season. Everything went right for the Crows in 2016 but still couldn't make top 4. They are getting massively over rated by most. At least 2 of these teams will not make the 8.

 

[matey]

My prediction is Hawks will finish between 5-8 on the ladder but will win the premiership. Roughy Norm Smith and Mitchell top 3 in the Charlie!

 

[GreyCrow]

The majority of people have pretty much this years top 8 minus North Melbourne. I really only think the Sydney teams are locks.
Geelong and Hawks have lost some serious experience. Injuries to a couple key players, especially for Geelong could be very damaging. Bulldogs finished the regular season 7th. They will be very much become the hunted and will not fly under the radar. Their tactics will be studied and pulled apart. West Coast most damaging player is out for the season. Everything went right for the Crows in 2016 but still couldn't make top 4. They are getting massively over rated by most. At least 2 of these teams will not make the 8.

You make some fair points, I then ask who will come in? And do they come in by default or improvement? I had Saints and Melbourne coming in with North and Hawks dropping out. Hawks finishing 9th just because I think 2017 will be a re-set year.

 

[CF]

GWS has to be the team to beat, despite the Bulldogs good finals performances in 2016.

North will drop out, no doubt. WCE were playing well by the end of the season last year, so I can see them going up.

The interesting clubs will be the Hawks and the Cats. Both squads have lost a lot of experience, and are relying on young blokes to step up. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. The question for both clubs is midfield depth. Yet, I expect both will make the finals again.

Sydney has some serious talent so they should be top 4 again.

Adelaide lacked midfield depth last season, and their slingshot game is beatable.

It'll be interesting to see if some bottom clubs can keep improving - Melb, Carlton, Brisbane, Freo, Tigers, Pies etc.

 

[Papa G]

Adelaide lacked midfield depth last season, and Gibbs will help that, so they could improve.

SAY what?

 

[Smithy7]

That's all fine for 2016. What happened in 2015

Oh what a laugh .. I think the games will be played in 2017. Oh shite, it's 2017 now, who would have thought..

 

[Papa G]

You make some fair points, I then ask who will come in? And do they come in by default or improvement? I had Saints and Melbourne coming in with North and Hawks dropping out. Hawks finishing 9th just because I think 2017 will be a re-set year.

Saints or Melbourne, but not both.

Port or Richmond. More likely Port.

 

[CF]

SAY what?

Sorry, I forgot Gibbs didn't get traded to Adelaide, it's been a few months since I thought about this stuff. LOL. Was it Carlton who got him?

 

[Papa G]

Sorry, I forgot Gibbs didn't get traded to Adelaide, it's been a few months since I thought about this stuff. LOL. Was it Carlton who got him?

He was contracted to Carlton. They played hard ball. He stayed.

 

[CF]

He was contracted to Carlton. They played hard ball. He stayed.

Ah, that's right. Thanks. God, I need to read afl prospectus and get back up to speed.

 

[Connar]

My Final Change and much more logic Prediction:


1. GWS
2. Western Bulldogs
3. Sydney
4. Geelong
5. Hawthorn
6. St Kilda
7. Fremantle
8. Adelaide

____________________________
9. West Coast
10. Port Adelaide
11. North Melbourne
12. Melbourne
13. Richmond
14. Collingwood
15. Essendon
16. Gold Coast
17. Carlton
18. Brisbane


- Grand Final: GWS (80) def by Sydney (106)
- Freo makes the Semis
- Hawthorn loses the 1st Elimination Final
- West Coast biggest Sliders for Season 2017.

 

[PAFC66]

I went through the fixture and did a 'Win - 50/50 - Loss' breakdown. The 50/50 games I just then split into wins or losses.

- Came out with a few placements I'm not quite sure on. Adelaide above GWS probably being the standout.
- I had the Saints penciled in the 8 mentally, but they actually have quite a tough draw.
- With the top 6 teams it's not that I don't think they will loss any games, more that you could make a case for their tough games being too close to call. So I called them 50/50. Conversely with the bottom teams, it's not that I don't think they won't win, just that their winnable games will be close)
- I didn't try to sneak Freo into the 8 it just happened. I'll list Freo's game below so you can call me out on my bias

(Wins - 50/50 - Losses)

Swans (14 - 8 - 0)
Dogs (14 - 8 - 0)
Adelaide (14 - 8 - 0)
GWS (13 - 9 - 0)

Cats (12 - 10 - 0)
Hawks (11 - 10 - 1)
Eagles (9 - 10 - 3)
Freo (9 - 8 - 5)

Port (8 - 8 - 6)
Melbourne (7 - 7 - 8)
Saints (6 - 7 - 9)
Collingwood (3 - 9 - 10)
Richmond (4 - 6 - 12)
Essendon (3 - 6 - 13)

North (0 - 10 - 12)
Suns (0 - 8 - 14)
Carlton (0 - 5 - 17)
Brisbane (0 - 5 - 17)

--------------------------------------

Freo's results

Wins
North - Home
Essendon - Home
Carlton - Home
Collingwood - Home
Lions - Away
Saints - Home
Suns - Home
Richmond - Home
Essendon - Away

50/50's
Melbourne - Away
Geelong - Home
Port - Away
Eagles - Away
Richmond - Away
North - Away
Eagles - Home
Hawks - Home

Losses
Dogs - Home
Adelaide - Away
Cats - Away
Giants - Away
Swans - Away

We'll smash you in Adelaide like always

 

[Unique Name]

We'll smash you in Adelaide like always

I hope you're not including the game we sent our B team over in that 'Always'

Port couldn't even beat us last year when we were a bottom 4 team and lost a player half way through the game. I don't think it's unreasonable to class our upcoming bout as a 50/50.


Not to mention our injury list at that game.
Our main three tall backs were out: Johnson, APearce, Ibbotson all out
Midfield severely hampered: Sandi, Fyfe, Bennell out
No backup ruck: Apeness, Griffin out

and we still beat you.



vs Port


+ Ryder
+ Monfries

 

[Sab22]

I feel like Collingwood needs a coach like Luke Bevridge. They have the talent but not the right staffs and coaches.

Sent from my HTC 2PS5200 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Art Vandelay_]

1. GWS- If the team is fit and no major losses in mummy, Davis or Cameron can't see them finishing anywhere else. The team to beat next year even though they didn't win it. Depth is too strong and finals would've gave them the needed experience.
2. Sydney- A good side, lost tom mitchell but too good of a team to not stay up there. The talent is there and will be hard to beat as usual
3. Geelong- Seems to be a lot doubting the cats, i don't see how you can. Pretty much the same team, should see more of cockatoo and thurlow who i think can become good players. Still got improvement in their squad such a duncan, menzel, lang, s. selwood.
4. Bulldogs- Will be up there again, i think getting cloke was actually a bad move for the doggies for me he is too much of a liability on the ground. Hard working team, got through injury after injury and have bob coming back.
5. Adelaide- All around good side, just gotta win those big games to become next level. Gibbs i think is the missing key for them finishing top 4.
6. Hawks- Even with the quality lost, the players that came in can play mitchells inside ability, vickery gives us height and probably 30 goals, O'Meara in full training he is the difference maker and the big roughy back is key to our structures. See us dropping, but not out of the 8.
7. Saints- Tough to choice, but i just prefer the saints list. Great fwd line, good backs, like hickey at ruck, good mid depth and leadership. See them being the jumpers next year and getting some big wins against teams in the top 8.
8. WCE- Will be around the 8 again, i would put them higher but i can't trust them winning away games. If they can win away from home then they are the real deal. Don't expect mitchell to be the difference maker for away games but will have a big influence on games.
-----------------------------------------------
9. Melbourne- I just don't know with this team, they showed so many good signs but then also the bad. Beating us was a good sign but then the last was terrible also with a new coach wanting to play more attacking could get scored against heavily.
10. Port- A team with good talent but seemed to peak to early, kind of like the hawks of 08. Just don't know what you'll get with this mob they just seem to turn up when it best suits them. Ryder will be good to have back and also liked their draft choices.
11. Collingwood- Their off-season seemed to be a bit of panic mode bringing in wells, mayne act, think they should've kept with playing the younger kids and continue the plan put in place by buckley. think the recruits may come back to haunt them, especially with their back line
12. Bombers- Too hard to judge year off footy could go terrible, ok or good. So I've put them here because I'm just not sure. Got the team, but i think 2017 will be a year of just getting back and setting up for 2018.
13.GCS - Back to the start again, got some really good kids but can't expect too much from them. Got some good trades done, but again its a start over for the suns. Culture and retention of talent should be a main focus, creating an environment where players want to be.
14.Richmond- Have the good players in Rance, Riewoldt and Martin, Prestia and Cotchin is good aswell. Other then that can't really see anything else good for them. Year of struggle.
15. North- All i can see is a huge drop off going off the 2nd half of the season. Yes they have some good young players but haven't played enough. Tough year for the Roo's.
16. Freo- Even with the recruits they have got still can't see them winning games because of their inability to score a winning score. Have good players but not enough and need to become more of a scoring threat.
17. Carlton- Carlton saw a good start to the season, good young talent but seem to be bringing in too many gas rejects. The competition will be stronger than last year and see them dropping 3 spots.
18. Lions- Feel for this mob, even with the success they had in the early 2000's. The club has let the fans done by there way of trading and not being able to retain talent. Hopefully with a new core, coaching group etc they can atleast show signs for the future and get crowds again.

The positioning of the top 8 and bottom 10 is always subjective but decent effort I think this is. Port, Pies and Bombers do look to be the "best of the rest". Not quite good enough for September but too good to be utter shite.

If I was to make one change it'd be Melbourne. I think they're ready for finals. Maybe over a NicNat less West Coast?

 

[WestCoast05]

The problem with these ladders, as much as I respect the effort put in, is that 'analysing' is still guessing who wins what games based on a sense of how good you already think each team will be. In short, it's a self-fulfilling exercise.

New to the world of sports betting I see..

 

[harry000]

From the side you beat by 40 points?

Oh I don't know...maybe playing Ryder, Hombsch, Hartlett, Jonas, White and having the ability to select Monfries if he's in form for a start.

Then we could have an uninjured Wingard and Dixon playing for us instead of the crocked versions we had on the ground who couldn't run...both of which were put on the injury list after the game.

Ooh, ooh, I know! We can then put Trengove back into defense and not have him be all beat up because he had to ruck for most of the season. We can do the same with Broadbent who was covering for White on the wing. That will help our defence out I'm sure.

So basically, we can completely change our defence and upgrade our midfield, ruck AND attacking options...just by getting the players we were missing back and playing in their right positions. And by actually winning a decent amount of the ball in ruck, our midfielders can increase the amount of forward 50 entries we get. Here's a fun fact for you: did you know that our score to entry ratio was 1.7 points over the season? And that Melbourne's was 1.64? And that's with all those players missing.

That's how we'll improve. And I haven't even started on the added dimension that playing contested ball winners like Powell-Pepper, Atley and Drew will provide the dynamic of our side.

So yeah, when you put down Port as a win, considering you're coming back from the heat of Darwin in a game against Adelaide vs us playing North Melbourne at AO...I consider that optimistic. Not saying it isn't going to happen, but I wouldn't be banking on it.

I think after all that we will still beat you by 6 goals plus next year. An extra pre season into our young guns and more cohesion with our forward line plus adding Lewis and Hibberd will be enough to ensure that.

My ladder prediction was also based on more than just how we stack up head to head. I think you seriously over rate your list. You have some absolute stars in Gray and Wingard which makes you dangerous when you go into attack but I don't think your midfield sill be up to the standard next year.

Never rated Trengove UNTIL he went into the ruck. He is a mediocre defender and him going back wont improve your defence by as much as you seem to think it will.

And yes my whole assessmnt of out ladder position was an optimistic one as you stated and I put us down as winning games we should win. Still being one of the lesser experienced sides in the comp its inevitable that we will drop a couple of should wins and hopefully that is evened out by a couple of upset wins. Saying that, I definitely see the Port game as a should win. The good point that you do make is the travel back from Darwin, we always play shit the week after Darwin. This year we flogged St Kilda in the first quarter and then they ran all over us for the rest of the game the week after Darwin so that may be a factor.

 

[Janus]

I think after all that we will still beat you by 6 goals plus next year. An extra pre season into our young guns and more cohesion with our forward line plus adding Lewis and Hibberd will be enough to ensure that.

My ladder prediction was also based on more than just how we stack up head to head. I think you seriously over rate your list. You have some absolute stars in Gray and Wingard which makes you dangerous when you go into attack but I don't think your midfield sill be up to the standard next year.

Never rated Trengove UNTIL he went into the ruck. He is a mediocre defender and him going back wont improve your defence by as much as you seem to think it will.

And yes my whole assessmnt of out ladder position was an optimistic one as you stated and I put us down as winning games we should win. Still being one of the lesser experienced sides in the comp its inevitable that we will drop a couple of should wins and hopefully that is evened out by a couple of upset wins. Saying that, I definitely see the Port game as a should win. The good point that you do make is the travel back from Darwin, we always play shit the week after Darwin. This year we flogged St Kilda in the first quarter and then they ran all over us for the rest of the game the week after Darwin so that may be a factor.

6 goals huh?

More delusional than optimistic then.

 

[Bokonon_]

My Final Change and much more logic Prediction:


1. GWS
2. Western Bulldogs
3. Sydney
4. Geelong
5. Hawthorn
6. St Kilda
7. Fremantle
8. Adelaide

____________________________
9. West Coast
10. Port Adelaide
11. North Melbourne
12. Melbourne
13. Richmond
14. Collingwood
15. Essendon
16. Gold Coast
17. Carlton
18. Brisbane


- Grand Final: GWS (80) def by Sydney (106)
- Freo makes the Semis
- Hawthorn loses the 1st Elimination Final
- West Coast biggest Sliders for Season 2017.

Bit disappointed you have apparently succumbed to pressure and now have us on top.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

From the side you beat by 40 points?

Oh I don't know...maybe playing Ryder, Hombsch, Hartlett, Jonas, White and having the ability to select Monfries if he's in form for a start.

Then we could have an uninjured Wingard and Dixon playing for us instead of the crocked versions we had on the ground who couldn't run...both of which were put on the injury list after the game.

Ooh, ooh, I know! We can then put Trengove back into defense and not have him be all beat up because he had to ruck for most of the season. We can do the same with Broadbent who was covering for White on the wing. That will help our defence out I'm sure.

So basically, we can completely change our defence and upgrade our midfield, ruck AND attacking options...just by getting the players we were missing back and playing in their right positions. And by actually winning a decent amount of the ball in ruck, our midfielders can increase the amount of forward 50 entries we get. Here's a fun fact for you: did you know that our score to entry ratio was 1.7 points over the season? And that Melbourne's was 1.64? And that's with all those players missing.

That's how we'll improve. And I haven't even started on the added dimension that playing contested ball winners like Powell-Pepper, Atley and Drew will provide the dynamic of our side.

So yeah, when you put down Port as a win, considering you're coming back from the heat of Darwin in a game against Adelaide vs us playing North Melbourne at AO...I consider that optimistic. Not saying it isn't going to happen, but I wouldn't be banking on it.

I'll believe it when I see it. These are predictions are not unlike the predictions that you lot made at the beginning of 2015 and 2016.

 

[LeverPuller]

I'll believe it when I see it. These are predictions are not unlike the predictions that you lot made at the beginning of 2015 and 2016.

Agree.

I just don't particularly rate Port's best 22. You have guys who are superstars in Gray and Wingard, but the bulk of the side are B+ at best. Broadbent, Hartlett, Ebert as prime examples but also S Gray, Neade, . That coupled with a whole heap of flake - Polec, Westhoff, Toump the prime examples. Not to mention Dixon.

I think the heat goes up and the Power goes out.

 

[Bokonon_]

Agree.

I just don't particularly rate Port's best 22. You have guys who are superstars in Gray and Wingard, but the bulk of the side are B+ at best. Broadbent, Hartlett, Ebert as prime examples but also S Gray, Neade, . That coupled with a whole heap of flake - Polec, Westhoff, Toump the prime examples. Not to mention Dixon.

I think the heat goes up and the Power goes out.

I think Ports game plan is an issue. It's a fact they were involved in more Melee's than any other club. The high fiving of players by Ken after one by the coach in the Geelong game is troubling. In the modern game I think that is just a waste of energy.
Both Clarkson and Leon went oublic about it before games this year, and it is an issue.

 

[Since 2001]

The positioning of the top 8 and bottom 10 is always subjective but decent effort I think this is. Port, Pies and Bombers do look to be the "best of the rest". Not quite good enough for September but too good to be utter shite.

If I was to make one change it'd be Melbourne. I think they're ready for finals. Maybe over a NicNat less West Coast?

Yeah, i can see that happening. but for me i just went with the team who has more runs on the board.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

I'll believe it when I see it. These are predictions are not unlike the predictions that you lot made at the beginning of 2015 and 2016.

It's pretty entertaining. Power fans preseason fapping tends to be inversely proportional to the performance that their side puts on the park when the season starts.

Agree.

I just don't particularly rate Port's best 22. You have guys who are superstars in Gray and Wingard, but the bulk of the side are B+ at best. Broadbent, Hartlett, Ebert as prime examples but also S Gray, Neade, . That coupled with a whole heap of flake - Polec, Westhoff, Toump the prime examples. Not to mention Dixon.

I think the heat goes up and the Power goes out.

Nail on the head. Ports issue isn't their top end talent, it's their 16 to 22nd guy picked. Guys like Neade, Polec, Toumpas, Broadbent etc are the definition of fringe.

 

[Papa G]

Crows are fapping based on a 2016 where they suffered no injuries and 2 thirds of their best 22 had career best years. If improvement is linear, sure they should be around the mark, but we all know linear improvement is by no means guaranteed. Crows are a reasonably good side, but if Talia, Sloane or Lil Eddie miss any decent portions of the year they will be exposed. A normal run with Injuries should see them in the bottom half of the 8.