2017 Trade and FA thread

[Jpw22511]

Cameron had 4 goals against us this year in round 9; in one quarter. Plays much better in the heat and humidity of Brisbane. Probably why he was on and off at Adelaide doesn't like the cold . But in all seriousness in 8 years time this forum will be full of supporters for Cameron and Hipwood. Hipwood brings it to the ground quite often, without a designated crummer (crumber). Now Christensen can teach Cameron to be there and be ready.

 

[Bourrich]

I've listened to Nobles interview on trade radio there.
When talking about trading back to 15 he said 'it's not always just about where the pick is, it's what you can do with it"
Based on what he said, I think we might have very definite players in mind that we would have taken at 12, who we're confident will still be there at 15 (major sliders aside).
If we get the same players at 1-15-18 as we would have taken at 1-12-18, then we're golden. Add in that Richmond and Bulldogs have probably given the nod that they won't be bidding Ballenden at 16-17 either.

 

[Hollow Knight]

When talking about trading back to 15 he said 'it's not always just about where the pick is, it's what you can do with it"

I kinda got the impression he was saying "those later picks are good for us because we can use them for bid matching".

 

[seanthelion]

Ok..... dust has settled.... My first emotional response over.... I want logic to drive now.
Lets break it down.

Key Indicator:

List better or worse?

Short term and long term I think we've improved our list dramatically. Luke Hodge finished super high in Hawthorn's B&F this year, he'll easily be best 22 and will help our structures etc huge short term boost as a player and massive long term impact on the list. Have we forgotten the giant win this is?

Charlie Cameron instant best 22 and fills an important age gap. Lightening fast, super offensive pressure, super damaging attack when on song. Huge boost both short and long term.

Lost Rocky who takes some experience and possessions with him..... but development of our young bulls demands more minutes in the middle... Keays, Matho, Berry, Clugga have more chances to develop. Rocky had some baggage..... and has a body that is going to struggle to make full seasons moving forward.

Lost Schache and some future potential. Zero affect on our list short to mid term. The pain of his departure reduced by our genuine problem of too many talls and the astonishing impact of Hippwood..... and Mr Ballandan coming in.
Never nice to lose a pick 2 for a 20 and 40 something..... but pick 2 is a sunken cost and accient history.... the kid was a flop.... we got a pick that allowed us get pick 15 which might make a giant difference on draft night with matching bids etc...


SOOOOOOoooooo If I was Fagen would I think I'm in a stronger position today than yesterday?


I think its a resounding YES...... what else matters?

THIS!! Basic economics kids.

Btw it's sunk cost.

 

[SizeMatters]

Wouldn't mind taking a look at at is Boekhorst. Unfairly treated IMO probably because he was pick 19? but he is a better footballer than Hartung. I have not seen a lot of him but he has looked pretty good for an outside mid...Has pace, and a deadly kick which is exactly what we have been missing in our midfield rotations. Would cost nothing besides a list space. His last few weeks of footy were pretty darn good.

 

[Sproj]

Wouldn't mind taking a look at at is Boekhorst. Unfairly treated IMO probably because he was pick 19? but he is a better footballer than Hartung. I have not seen a lot of him but he has looked pretty good for an outside mid...Has pace, and a deadly kick which is exactly what we have been missing in our midfield rotations. Would cost nothing besides a list space. His last few weeks of footy were pretty darn good.

Completely with you on this, I reckon the club also agrees just based on gut feel. He will have the drive if given the shot and fits a very necessary age bracket for us.

 

[Lazza16]

90% sure with our plans we only need to delist 1 player. If we go in with 5 spots and consume 2 on the Ballenden bid we get an extra pick at the end of the draft based on the other available list spot. We can use that to re-draft the delisted player or to match a late bid on Payne (after pick 56 I believe). We don’t need the pick 52 or whatever it is unless Payne gets bid between 52 and 56. Assuming we’re expecting Ballenden’s bid to be after pick 18 we could also get change from the combo of 40/44. If it’s pick 19 there’s no change (it’ll go to the back of the draft), pick 20 is a pick ~70, pick 21 bid is ~67, 20 is ~59 etc.

Long story short we don’t need pick 52 anyway so don’t need to delist both Close and Beams.

FWIW - I was bitterly disappointed with the Cameron trade. Less than impressed with the Schache one but felt we redeemed ourselves somewhat with the Richmond trade up (understand the angst but those picks were useless given Ballenden anyway). Overall grade from me is a C-/D+ but also don’t like judging until we’re through the full offseason.

On the bright side reckon Conole has been a master at picking value over his time here so fingers crossed on this draft!


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JUst dont pick anymore Josh names please big conole

 

[dlanod]

So do we go down the PSD route?
Anthony Miles probably the biggest name available, would be a good get IMO

Pretty sure Miles doesn't want to leave Victoria given the suitors he has down south.

 

[Nunez]

Pretty sure Miles doesn't want to leave Victoria given the suitors he has down south.

Given the Suns definitely enquired and tried to get him and it fell through (no doubt was their first preference for pick 2..lol) I think you're right. Heart must be set on staying in Victoria.

 

[WheildonTheAxe]

Is our list better today than what it was yesterday ?

Yes.

Bottom line, it's about winning games of footy and not about 'winning' trades.

I agree that winning trades is fairly arbitrary and secondary to winning matches.

It's hard to measure our list improvement purely on the two players in and two players out given the currency for the trades included draft picks. They are obviously speculative so we'll know more about the impact this trade period had on our list in 2-3 years. Let me get back to you with my assessment then!

 

[dlanod]

I agree that winning trades is fairly arbitrary and secondary to winning matches.

What if we don't win matches and we don't win trades?

Hypothetically...?

Not hypothetically.

 

[WheildonTheAxe]

A little piece inside all of us dies

 

[neg99]

JUst dont pick anymore Josh names please big conole

To be fair the bulk of the Josh’s were speculative late picks in a weak draft (Schache the obvious exception).


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[lioninthesand]

Seems to be a few "experts" grading our trade period as at least a pass mark. I find that interesting given most Lions supporters think it ranges from a slight fail to an absolute disaster.

We went into the trade period way over valuing the one player we were looking to move on and way under valuing the one player we were chasing. The club also ran a 'we are comfortable doing nothing' campaign, designed to give leverage at the trade table, but that also amplified the disappointment, as our supporters truely believed we would walk away. There was about as much chance of us walking away from Paying slightly overs for Cameron or not trading Schache as their was that we were going to put Aish in the PSD. Most believed it when we said we would, but it was never going to happen.

All of these factors, when emotionally connected to the outcome was bound for disaster, however when you actually sit and look at it - we are in a really fantastic position. We have added speed, experience, we are about to capitilse on our acadamy again and we have 3 picks inside 18, and we lost 2 players who either didn't want to be here or have had question arks for several years in the process.

It for me is slightly below break even, but now the dust has settled, I am really looking forward to draft day.

The only concern I have is our lopsided midfield age and talent wise, I would really like that to be tended to, even if just a stop gap or a Miles or something along those lines. Decent mids is the one sort of player we struggle to attract in the right age bracket, unlike Carlton and other clubs of that nature.

 

[jackess]

I kinda got the impression he was saying "those later picks are good for us because we can use them for bid matching".

I thought he was referring to how the 25 we got for Schache was turned into 15.

 

[Lace Out]

Cameron plus one more maturish quality player and our job is done

I posted this in June.Would never have guessed that second player.Mature indeed.

 

[lioninthesand]

I posted this in June.Would never have guessed that second player.Mature indeed.

So mature.

 

[Albi_Mangler]

I have zero confidence that we can retain elite young talent in the current AFL market. The system is broken. Lions/Suns/Giants have become development academys for southern teams to pick from each year. Someone should calculate the total draft value points that has been lost in the draft-trade-home cycle over the past 3-4 years. Like paying USD to buy talent and selling talent for pesos. A total rethink is required from the management to compete in this market. Suns trading Weller for pick 2 is probably the new norm, although I fear for the Suns. If Lynch goes next year they may as well close up shop.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

True.

I was comparing to someone who's only been in the system 2 years like Schache and addressing any unrealistic expectation of us getting a similar return than what we used when we drafted him.

Someone who was drafted pick 2 last season or the season before is rarely going to get you back the same pick in the draft (or better) if you trade them two years later.

Lever, Cameron, Weller........

 

[winged1]

Truth is we can't tell how we went this trade period for 2 or three years.

If Schache doesn't cut it, well we got something for him. If he becomes the best fwd in the game we got reemed.

If Charlie fulfills his potential 12 will be cheap, if he is a bust we got reemed.

Hodge known quantity got him for nothing. Still has the potential for the odd stupid act or he could be the making of our back six.

Time and only time will tell.

 

[AB09]

Lever, Cameron, Weller........

All of them have played 3 seasons.

It can happen but it's not the norm. Especially in Schache's case where he hardly played this season. To get anything comparable to pick 2 back via a trade was never going to happen.

 

[lioninthesand]

I have zero confidence that we can retain elite young talent in the current AFL market. The system is broken. Lions/Suns/Giants have become development academys for southern teams to pick from each year. Someone should calculate the total draft value points that has been lost in the draft-trade-home cycle over the past 3-4 years. Like paying USD to buy talent and selling talent for pesos. A total rethink is required from the management to compete in this market. Suns trading Weller for pick 2 is probably the new norm, although I fear for the Suns. If Lynch goes next year they may as well close up shop.

Our retention has been ok since the GH5. Aish was a bust either way and Schache was a very unusual case, I am willing to put an asterix to his departure. With the academy and a bit of go home factor coming back the other way we should be ok. Most of our list is signed up and committed, I really think Clugg and Witho are the litmus tester, if we retain those bloke this year we are on the right, albeit I don't have a good gut feeling. Given we haven't even started winning games yet, our retention has been great, if can snag a few more it will only continue to improve.

In the NBA go home factor does not exist and that is because families are geared toward separation because of kids being shipped off to College, the notion is you need to leave the nest to spread you wings. Kids also do their 3 years in College ball systems and don't really get to choose where they go and they can't leave the College, so by the time they are ready to be drafted they arn't kids anymore so that detachment is done.

 

[Berrygood]

I hope that in interviews with other clubs, ballenden has said that he loves qld and is very close to his family. That alone should make clubs from the evil south think twice about bidding for him.

 

[notliondown]

I would think that once you move out of the top 5 or so picks, our in house draft order probably looks a bit different to other clubs. What the powerhouse Vic clubs look for in players further down the order is probably still very football focused in pure terms, where ours would shift subtly towards players with life skills and experience, where they grew up, attended boarding school maybe and an over all evidence of "resilience" for want of a better term.

I'd say that we are pretty comfortable in thinking that there's a very good chance that the same players we would target at 12 are there at 15, 18 or 20 - simply because our focus is different to others.

Failing that, those picks bank us points for local talent regardless, especially if another club wants to try and knife us. The quiet trade with Richmond for 15 & 50 was the icing on the cake.

 

[Sproj]

Aside from Ballenden and Payne, are there any other highly rated Qlders?