2018 Draft thread

[Dom PC]

GC traded pick 2 last year for Weller, so Lynch (often rated in the media as the one player if you were starting a new club you would pick first) is worth less???

Free Agency is not designed to compensate you fully. When I say a fair outcome, I mean they are very unlikely to get a better player via a trade with the club Lynch goes to (or any of the 3 clubs Lynch chooses). I.e. getting pick 3 is making the best of a bad situation.

At least with pick 3 it can be traded to any club. If they trade Lynch, he has to agree to it making it very difficult.

 

[M Malice]

Wow, Knightmare now has Connor McFadyden at 9 in his power rankings.
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...nkings-jack-lukosius-no-1-other-forwards-rise

9. Connor McFadyen (QLD - Brisbane Academy)
Best position: Inside midfield/general forward
Height, weight: 190cm, 88kg
Recruited from: Brisbane Lions
Projected draft range: 10-30
Plays like: Nat Fyfe
Rationale: Powerful ball winner and marking threat forward of centre. Continues his rise following a strong Under-18 Championships with promising NEAFL form.
July Ranking: 12
Strengths:
Contested ball-winning
Distribution by hand
Stoppage work
Marking threat forward of centre
Contested marking
Reading of the ball in flight
Protects the drop of the ball
One-on-one strength
Scoreboard impact
Clean at ground level
Equally effective forward as he is through the midfield
Weaknesses:
Pace
Agility

 

[spotthedog1]

Wow, Knightmare now has Connor McFadyden at 9 in his power rankings.
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...nkings-jack-lukosius-no-1-other-forwards-rise

9. Connor McFadyen (QLD - Brisbane Academy)
Best position: Inside midfield/general forward
Height, weight: 190cm, 88kg
Recruited from: Brisbane Lions
Projected draft range: 10-30
Plays like: Nat Fyfe
Rationale: Powerful ball winner and marking threat forward of centre. Continues his rise following a strong Under-18 Championships with promising NEAFL form.
July Ranking: 12
Strengths:
Contested ball-winning
Distribution by hand
Stoppage work
Marking threat forward of centre
Contested marking
Reading of the ball in flight
Protects the drop of the ball
One-on-one strength
Scoreboard impact
Clean at ground level
Equally effective forward as he is through the midfield
Weaknesses:
Pace
Agility

Knightmare likes bumping up the academy kids, because academies are unfair and blablabla. This way it looks like they fall further.

 

[Dylan12]

Won't happen.

I wouldn’t be so sure.

 

[Suitcase]

I wouldn’t be so sure.

Gold Coast will take the safe option of the pick 3 compo and move on.

If we look back at the Dangerfield forced trade, the Crows only managed to get pick 9 and 28. Dangerfield was arguably the most valuable player in the competition at the time.

 

[jackess]

Wow, Knightmare now has Connor McFadyden at 9 in his power rankings.
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...nkings-jack-lukosius-no-1-other-forwards-rise

9. Connor McFadyen (QLD - Brisbane Academy)
Best position: Inside midfield/general forward
Height, weight: 190cm, 88kg
Recruited from: Brisbane Lions
Projected draft range: 10-30
Plays like: Nat Fyfe
Rationale: Powerful ball winner and marking threat forward of centre. Continues his rise following a strong Under-18 Championships with promising NEAFL form.
July Ranking: 12
Strengths:
Contested ball-winning
Distribution by hand
Stoppage work
Marking threat forward of centre
Contested marking
Reading of the ball in flight
Protects the drop of the ball
One-on-one strength
Scoreboard impact
Clean at ground level
Equally effective forward as he is through the midfield
Weaknesses:
Pace
Agility

Fair effort given he's done SFA in the last month

 

[M Malice]

Knightmare likes bumping up the academy kids, because academies are unfair and blablabla. This way it looks like they fall further.

I know he rates most academy players higher than others, he has got a few right over the years though, although a few wrong as well.

IMO KM wouldn't be that underhanded or spiteful when assessing players, they would be his genuine assessments, particularly now it's not a BF hobby, he does it professionally for ESPN.

 

[trikster]

Knightmare likes bumping up the academy kids, because academies are unfair and blablabla. This way it looks like they fall further.

And if you look at some of the other "more respected" people over onnyhe draft thread they have had him in the 20-30 range. He hasn't been BOG in the neafl or anything so I'm not sure how KM can justify 9th.

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[Not a Psycho]

I really don't think Knightmare has any bias towards academy players. It's his assessment of them, built by actually watching the entire draft class.
It's actually quite refreshing having someone willing to stick their neck out and have a different opinion to everyone else on bigfooty and in the media.

 

[jackess]

I really don't think Knightmare has any bias towards academy players. It's his assessment of them, built by actually watching the entire draft class.
It's actually quite refreshing having someone willing to stick their neck out and have a different opinion to everyone else on bigfooty and in the media.

He just consistently overrates academy players. You’d think he’d learn.

 

[Requiem]

He just consistently overrates academy players. You’d think he’d learn.

Agreed.

From the vision I've seen of McFayden, his form hasn't been impressive enough to be near the top 10. While he does have some impressive traits (Good Mark, Size and ability to compete in the air), his disposals has been inconsistent, especially by hand. Second round seems more likely IMO.

 

[spotthedog1]

He just consistently overrates academy players. You’d think he’d learn.

It's an interesting one now that the Allies team plays in the Champs. I think it was Conole on Road to the Draft podcast said that the beauty of that is that it provided a benchmark for those kids against the Vic/SA/WA kids, whereas previously they struggled to know how they'd go against their peers (only getting to see them in B-grade comps like NEAFL).

That's where McFadyen jumped up the boards during the champs - because it showed his ability against elite kids. Interesting to see KM still pumping him up higher though on grounds of NEAFL though.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Gold Coast will take the safe option of the pick 3 compo and move on.

If we look back at the Dangerfield forced trade, the Crows only managed to get pick 9 and 28. Dangerfield was arguably the most valuable player in the competition at the time.

This might end up being more about making a statement rather than fair value though. Anyone who thinks it's a complete certainty the Suns won't match has never heard an interview with Tony Cochrane. It would be well within his character to force a trade as a middle finger to the Victorian clubs and free agency as a whole.

 

[Dynawhite]

This might end up being more about making a statement rather than fair value though. Anyone who thinks it's a complete certainty the Suns won't match has never heard an interview with Tony Cochrane. It would be well within his character to force a trade as a middle finger to the Victorian clubs and free agency as a whole.

Would love to see this happen just for the spectacle, free agency has clubs over a barrel for the most part.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Would love to see this happen just for the spectacle, free agency has clubs over a barrel for the most part.

I would think 99% of the time you'd quite happily take the compensation pick. I also think that's what every other club would do. But Cochrane is a wildcard. I still think it's probably more likely they don't match, but if anybody would I think it would be the Suns this year.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

He just consistently overrates academy players. You’d think he’d learn.

He highly rated all of Tickner, Conway, Hammelmann and Keays as I recall. Probably others.

 

[Scubaveg]

We actually did get one 6 months before that, albeit end of first round.

Suffice to say, as bad as we've been over the last 5 years, we've still never been as bad as the Gold Coast now. They're also still a fairly new expansion team so that boosts their chances of better treatment.

And yet we are on four wins each and we have finished below them in the ladder for the past four years running.


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[pulpdriver]

McFadyen at 9 seems a bit higher than other places but guys like Knightmare deal in potential and I think McFadyen has that in spades. Midfielders that can win the ball in the centre and have an impact up forward are amongst the most valuable players in the game currently and at the Champs he showed he could do both well. He's a great size; 190cm and 80kg+ already and he has a December birthday so in all likelihood gonna get even bigger. Also really like him up forward, strong mark and can really protect the drop of the ball well. I'd be disappointed if he doesn't end up on our list, even when Rayner starts spending more of his time in the midfield the impact he can have up forward is too much, we'd miss out not utilising him there when we can. I see McFadyen being the perfect rotational partner between the forward and midfield for Rayner. Always have a big body in the centre and a dangerous medium forward near the goals.

 

[jackess]

Would be more than happy passing on him if someone bids pick 9. Attacks the ball well and has a pretty decent set of hands but not much else.

 

[pulpdriver]

Would be more than happy passing on him if someone bids pick 9. Attacks the ball well and has a pretty decent set of hands but not much else.

Yeah, but I don't realistically think that bids around 9 will come. Pretty sure Knightmare acknowledges that his power rankings aren't indicative of where bids might come, just his personal rankings. I think we should be able to still use our first two picks before a bid comes. If it looks like he might project a tad earlier I'd hope we look to trade up the second a few places to ensure we get to use both picks and then pay with what's left.

 

[SizeMatters]

Good at winning the loose ball or hard ball gets, good at getting his hands free but then after that it all falls apart for him. Kicking is average, hand balling is average, feel for the game is average... Getting a more contested Tom Bell vibe from him. Expect a pick in the early 30s IMO. This draft class isn't as good as people are making out. I think it's deep-ish but will be a "role player" type of draft with a few elite talents.

 

[Comeback Lions]

Wow, Knightmare now has Connor McFadyden at 9 in his power rankings.
Rationale: Powerful ball winner and marking threat forward of centre. Continues his rise following a strong Under-18 Championships with promising NEAFL form.
July Ranking: 12

An assertion of Nightmare's, without any evidence provided. We could dig up his NEAFL stats and they don't blow you away... fair to good NEAFL form is more like it. And he's currently injured. Hence how do you explain the rise in rankings? This is the nature of the beast, especially now he's writing for ESPN... Nightmare needs to change his rankings to make a story, and then change them again next month. Heaps of talent in SA alone, if you go on the championships. I'd say McFadyen is late first round at best, but a bid is more likely somewhere in the 2nd round. 9 not going to happen, unless we make finals in the twos and Conor stars in those games, or one of those mickey mouse games around the grand final.

 

[Chezz]

Anyone that saw the junior championships and would have seen so many players in front of mcfadyen, it's not funny. South Australia had so much talent coming through, with so many players with great skills. To have him at 9 in the power rankings makes an absolute mockery of his ratings. I hope we draft Mcfadyen and hope he makes it, but he is so far off some of these other juniors, skills wise, it's ridiculous.

Knightmare has done this with our other elite talented academy superstars in previous years, such as Conway, Hammelmen, Watson etc so we shouldn't be surprised. Keays was a top 10 too apparently. Mcfadyen should be around the 3rd round mark

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Good at winning the loose ball or hard ball gets, good at getting his hands free but then after that it all falls apart for him. Kicking is average, hand balling is average, feel for the game is average... Getting a more contested Tom Bell vibe from him. Expect a pick in the early 30s IMO. This draft class isn't as good as people are making out. I think it's deep-ish but will be a "role player" type of draft with a few elite talents.

While I certainly think #9 is far too high for McFadyen on exposed form, I think the Tom Bell comparison is a bit off the mark. McFadyen is much cleaner and more capable of the freakish than Bell has ever been, but probably isn't as good at contested footy as Bell was as a junior. They are very different players.

For comparison, here's Bell as a junior vs McFadyen (worth noting that Bell's video is just highlights whereas McFadyen's is all his involvements - good and bad). I think it shows where I'm coming from - Connor is much more one touch than Bell was, but doesn't have the same brut force at contests.





To be honest, I haven't really been that impressed with McFadyen through the midfield at any stage yet - on his midfield ability, I think he'd be a late pick. It's what he's shown up forward in the champs and in the NEAFL that probably bumps him into the late second/early third round.

Interestingly for us, our major academy wins so far have been late risers like Connor. The prospects who were rated guns from a few years out (Keays, Allison & Ballenden) haven't yet cemented a spot at senior level (Isaac Conway another in that group), but the two players who started off the radar at the start of their draft season but rose throughout the year (Hipwood & Andrews) have been gems. Hoping McFadyen could follow the same trajectory.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Following on from that, I think there's a bit of a misconception that the end product of what a player is going to be is already set in stone. Had Tom Bell come to the Lions as an 18 year old from the draft this year with our development program, his career might have taken a very different path.

Instead he spent the pivotal development years of 18-20 playing in the state league, before spending some time at Carlton under a questionable development regime and then his first year at the Lions was at a time when we seemed completely unable to properly develop talent.

I don't think it would be unreasonable to suggest that the past two years have really been the first experience Bell has had in a decent development program, and seemingly that's come too late for him being 25 when the new regime arrived at the club. By that age, I imagine it's much harder to break bad habits and shape a new approach to your footy career.

I think this also applies with all the hype around McCluggage, Berry & Witho. They all look to be outstanding prospects and the club's recruiting department deserves credit for those selections, but I doubt they would have been quite as impressive under the development programs we had in place for the decade or so before Fages took over.

You can't underestimate how big a factor that is - and that's why comparing somebody like McFadyen with Bell is just entirely useless. Not only do they possess some very different skillsets in terms of their raw potential, but they'll also take very different development pathways and at different ages.