List Mgmt. 2018 Draft/Trade/FA Thread

[GC2015]

I would be absolutely staggered with surprise if we drafted the King Twins. One is coming off an ACL and both of them are years away from league footy. This means that they'll be stuck in the 2s developing and we all know how that fares for very highly rated youngsters from VIC that are away from home. It's just not feasible.

Agree that Rankine in a vacuum is probably who we should target, but there are lots of things to consider when drafting young guys into our team:

• Reportedly this guy has huge tickets on himself. How does that fit into what we're trying to build?
• At this stage Rankine is a forward pocket player and he impacts significantly based on his x-factor. He probably has scope to play as a high half forward and even a mid in the future, but he will live in the forward half for the first couple of years of his career. How is he going to go in the Suns forward line that is so starved of opportunity? And when it does go in it's rarely on our terms?

IMO Rankine just doesn't fit in with us at the moment. He needs to go to a strong club with strong leaders that can really control what he can do. That's not us right now.

Compare that to Rozee who is capable of playing multiple positions which is what Dew has clearly stated he wants. Half-back, wing, half-forward, where-ever. His good friendship with Luko only adds to his value. This makes him perhaps not valuable to other teams, but extremely valuable to us.

Also worth mentioning Rozee recorded a quicker 20m sprint time than Rankine during the National Combine two weeks ago. Considering Rankine's speed/acceleration is considered a huge strength of his, Rozee's superior speed could be used as justification.

 

[Ben Drever]

Got to kick Goals to win games.
Rankine kicks goals

The past few years.. the Suns havent.

When Alex sexton wins the clubs goal kicking award.
Aaron Young second.

Your bound for the bottom 3 of the ladder

I can see Rankine coming in and kicking asmany goals and have as good as first year as Stevenson at the Pies this year.

Which would of won our goal kicking tally :/

 

[Peel67skin]

Jack Martin, Callum Ah Chee , Weller can all kick goal if they don't play defensive role
GHS, Corey Ellis , Wigg can play HB.

 

[Greendogg]

There is no reason to trade pick 2, 3, 6. After pick 8, players quality drops and there is no big difference between players picks 9-30. Suns should pick with these 3 top picks whoever is available and fits our team long-term.

3 top draftees is probably max to fit in this year. Next year 2 more top 10 coming too. It would not surprised me if pick 29 this year will be used on one more mature player.

Much more important than pick numbers is the environment Suns will create to develop them properly. It looks like we are focusing on it.

There is a reason! We get pick 10 instead of 24.. if we still get Rozee anyway.. its a good plan... surely we get better odds of getting a quality player at 10 than 24.. they all can't be that close....
Also if we can swap 3 for 5 and 10 and not send 24 back.. we can then potentially swap 24 or 29 for a future pick...
I'm loving this draft period, it is definitely a Sun's supporters favourite time of the year!

 

[Jirik13]

There is a reason! We get pick 10 instead of 24.. if we still get Rozee anyway.. its a good plan... surely we get better odds of getting a quality player at 10 than 24.. they all can't be that close....
Also if we can swap 3 for 5 and 10 and not send 24 back.. we can then potentially swap 24 or 29 for a future pick...
I'm loving this draft period, it is definitely a Sun's supporters favourite time of the year!

Don't touch these picks If we e.g. swap 3 for 5 and 10 and then on draft night after pick 3 Crows swap for pick 4 we miss out both on Rankine and Rozee!

 

[Sunraysia]

Don't touch these picks If we e.g. swap 3 for 5 and 10 and then on draft night after pick 3 Crows swap for pick 4 we miss out both on Rankine and Rozee!

I Agree...
2 = Lukosious , 3 = Rankine , and thanks to May we now have 6 = Rozee (if he's still available)… ?

 

[Jirik13]

I Agree...
2 = Lukosious , 3 = Rankine , and thanks to May we now have 6 = Rozee (if he's still available)… ?

Port will definitely take Rozee with pick 5 if they still have it. I am hoping for Smith who I actually like more than Walsh.

 

[OB11]

There is a reason! We get pick 10 instead of 24.. if we still get Rozee anyway.. its a good plan... surely we get better odds of getting a quality player at 10 than 24.. they all can't be that close....
Also if we can swap 3 for 5 and 10 and not send 24 back.. we can then potentially swap 24 or 29 for a future pick...
I'm loving this draft period, it is definitely a Sun's supporters favourite time of the year!

Just been mulling over basic game theory on who all the major draft players would be targeting as to how they are perceived to value their draft position and what they would be prepared to give up / get to move up / down the draft order:

Targets:

GC: Luko, Rozee, Smith, Caldwell
Saints: Rankine, King's x2, Smith
Crows: Luko, Rankine, Rozee
Port: see Crows

GC: take Luko off the board at 2, threaten to send 3 to Crows but really want to force Port to trade up with 5 and 10 as that's the best pick swap package available for Suns

Port: guarantee getting 2nd best SA kid (Rankine) - becomes a 1 club player and even if he did leave a non-SA club after his initial contract in 2 years they would have to compete with Crows (the club he currently supports and has relationships with after training with them) to get him to the club - added incentive for Port to just pay up now

Crows: if GC swap picks with Port their only option to get a top 3 SA kid (Rozee) is to trade with Saints. Crows may see the cost to be prohibitive to swap picks with Saints to get only Rozee as opposed to Rankine

Saints: If their real targets are Smith and King's then they really need to deal with Port (5) or Suns (6) as dealing for Crows picks would knock them out of the elite 8 kids so they wouldn't be that receptive to what Crows would be prepared to offer (say 8 and 13)

In summary as stated by a poster previously the deal for the Sun's to do is with Port for 5 and 10 for 3 and 29

Balance of probability the draft order is:

1. Walsh (Blues)
2. Luko (GC)
3. Rankine (Port)
4. King M / Smith (Saints)
5. Rozee (GC)
6. Smith / Caldwell (GC)
7. King B (WB)
8. Haetley / Caldwell (Crows)
9. Caldwell / Clark / Hill (GWS)
10. Caldwell / Clark / RCD / Duursma / O'Halloran (GC)

Left out possible Blakey and Thomas bids

So the upshot of getting the pick swap right is get all the players we were targeting plus moving 29 to 10

The downside risks are Port really wanted Rozee all along at 3, Saints or Crows take Rankine/Smith at 4 and we get whoever is left at 5 and either take Caldwell or a King at 6 and then we still have a pick at 10.

Full of upside and risk but GC hold the winning hand it is just a matter of working out how best to play it to achieve the result they want.






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[Jirik13]

Just been mulling over basic game theory on who all the major draft players would be targeting as to how they are perceived to value their draft position and what they would be prepared to give up / get to move up / down the draft order:

Targets:

GC: Luko, Rozee, Smith, Caldwell
Saints: Rankine, King's x2, Smith
Crows: Luko, Rankine, Rozee
Port: see Crows

GC: take Luko off the board at 2, threaten to send 3 to Crows but really want to force Port to trade up with 5 and 10 as that's the best pick swap package available for Suns

Port: guarantee getting 2nd best SA kid (Rankine) - becomes a 1 club player and even if he did leave a non-SA club after his initial contract in 2 years they would have to compete with Crows (the club he currently supports and has relationships with after training with them) to get him to the club - added incentive for Port to just pay up now

Crows: if GC swap picks with Port their only option to get a top 3 SA kid (Rozee) is to trade with Saints. Crows may see the cost to be prohibitive to swap picks with Saints to get only Rozee as opposed to Rankine

Saints: If their real targets are Smith and King's then they really need to deal with Port (5) or Suns (6) as dealing for Crows picks would knock them out of the elite 8 kids so they wouldn't be that receptive to what Crows would be prepared to offer (say 8 and 13)

In summary as stated by a poster previously the deal for the Sun's to do is with Port for 5 and 10 for 3 and 29

Balance of probability the draft order is:

1. Walsh (Blues)
2. Luko (GC)
3. Rankine (Port)
4. King M / Smith (Saints)
5. Rozee (GC)
6. Smith / Caldwell (GC)
7. King B (WB)
8. Haetley / Caldwell (Crows)
9. Caldwell / Clark / Hill (GWS)
10. Caldwell / Clark / RCD / Duursma / O'Halloran (GC)

Left out possible Blakey and Thomas bids

So the upshot of getting the pick swap right is get all the players we were targeting plus moving 29 to 10

The downside risks are Port really wanted Rozee all along at 3, Saints or Crows take Rankine/Smith at 4 and we get whoever is left at 5 and either take Caldwell or a King at 6 and then we still have a pick at 10.

Full of upside and risk but GC hold the winning hand it is just a matter of working out how best to play it to achieve the result they want.






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Drafting only one SA boy would be a mistake in my opinion.

 

[OB11]

Drafting only one SA boy would be a mistake in my opinion.

Rozee would be there at 5 or 6 under this scenario

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[Jirik13]

Rozee would be there at 5 or 6 under this scenario

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Assuming that Crows don't get hands on pick 4 Too many variables. Now some people suggest that Carlton could trade pick 1 with Port for 5, 10, 15. Teams could do deals behind the scene before draft night though.

 

[OB11]

Assuming that Crows don't get hands on pick 4 Too many variables. Now some people suggest that Carlton could trade pick 1 with Port for 5, 10, 15. Teams could do deals behind the scene before draft night though.

Lots of variables this year - this is a perfect storm for live trading of draft picks in the top 10 this year.

We won't see this much action with the trading of picks again for a very long time.

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[OB11]

If I was the Saints I would be trying to get both King twins by trading with us not doing deals with the Crows for their scraps.

Saints:

In: King twins (picks 6 and 7)
out: pick 4 and future 1st

gc:

Out: 6 and 24
In: 4 and Saints 2nd/3rd rd pick

Bulldogs:

In: Saints future 1st, GC's 24, Saints 3rd rd
Out: 7




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[Greendogg]

Don't touch these picks If we e.g. swap 3 for 5 and 10 and then on draft night after pick 3 Crows swap for pick 4 we miss out both on Rankine and Rozee!

That is a very fair point... the King twins would be a pretty good fall back option and some are saying Bailey Smith is the pick of the crop...
If we don't swap and stick with 2,3,6,24 and 29... then Luko, Rozee, Smith Pickett and O'Halloran.. sounds pretty getable and you gotta be happy with that!
I think I'm with you... all five of those guys could play significant First team footy next year..

 

[Ben Drever]

If I was the Saints I would be trying to get both King twins by trading with us not doing deals with the Crows for their scraps.

Saints:

In: King twins (picks 6 and 7)
out: pick 4 and future 1st

gc:

Out: 6 and 24
In: 4 and Saints 2nd/3rd rd pick

Bulldogs:

In: Saints future 1st, GC's 24, Saints 3rd rd
Out: 7




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Damn.. your good at this.

Im peeing my pants in excitement when i read these posts

 

[Greendogg]

If I was the Saints I would be trying to get both King twins by trading with us not doing deals with the Crows for their scraps.

Saints:

In: King twins (picks 6 and 7)
out: pick 4 and future 1st

gc:

Out: 6 and 24
In: 4 and Saints 2nd/3rd rd pick

Bulldogs:

In: Saints future 1st, GC's 24, Saints 3rd rd
Out: 7




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Only problem with that is, will the Bullies trade out of the elite 8 in the super draft?
I would think from their perspective they want someone who helps them sooner rather than later..

 

[Ben Drever]

Only problem with that is, will the Bullies trade out of the elite 8 in the super draft?
I would think from their perspective they want someone who helps them sooner rather than later..

I agree maybe suns need to sweeten it further this year for bullies

 

[Peel67skin]

The ground work had been done , take 2,3,6 ,24,29 to the draft .

 

[Greendogg]

I agree maybe suns need to sweeten it further this year for bullies

Too late to give them Lemmens... not sure I want to give them anymore draft picks...
The combinations are endless though and we do have that sweet future first from Brissy... maybe go straight to the saints with 6 and brissies pick... be hard to turn down... but I think I like Rozee, Luko and Smith, with 2 3 and 6... i hope cameron, after over thinking it decides not to overthink it..

 

[Sunraysia]

Drafting only one SA boy would be a mistake in my opinion.

I say Suns should go the whole hog - if St Kilda / Port pinch Rozee - then take Hately at 6.....
SA players are less risk to be bedwetters as Bods would say..
And - they were clearly the best 18's team this year by a margin...

 

[JRyan23]

I have mates who played with O’Halloran at the Jets and they don’t reckon he will go any earlier than pick 18


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[OB11]

I have mates who played with O’Halloran at the Jets and they don’t reckon he will go any earlier than pick 18


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Those mates have any idea on Zac Butters draft range?

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[OB11]

Only problem with that is, will the Bullies trade out of the elite 8 in the super draft?
I would think from their perspective they want someone who helps them sooner rather than later..

I've read some Bulldogs posters not being overly enthusiastic with taking another big - have Naughton down back and Schache and Boyd up forward

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[longytap]

Rozee it is. He is a serious talent. Lukosius + Rozee + Ballard will be our great SA trio!

Ballard to head home at years end i guess? AFL need to look at the rules around free agency etc, AFLPA has way to much influence these days, and they don't give a rats about anywhere outside of Victoria. If the AFL won't put new rules in place to protect the Suns we may as well wind the club up; Put it down as another frivolous GC sporting team attempt and move on. Sorry for the negativity, but its really starting to turn me off footy, which is sad.

 

[Jirik13]

Ballard to head home at years end i guess? AFL need to look at the rules around free agency etc, AFLPA has way to much influence these days, and they don't give a rats about anywhere outside of Victoria. If the AFL won't put new rules in place to protect the Suns we may as well wind the club up; Put it down as another frivolous GC sporting team attempt and move on. Sorry for the negativity, but its really starting to turn me off footy, which is sad.

I believe Ballard loves it on GC. We just need to create the best environment. We are basically there finally - new facilities, new coaches, new performance team. AFL finally put more money in development and welfare, academy. New stadium deal. We just need to stay healthy next year. I actually think once we start winning we will have no problem to retain or attract players. There is a lot of talent on our team already and more coming this and next year.