Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[Jeremias]

Continued from here:
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2018-list-management-discussion.1186643/

Continued here :-
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2018-list-management-discussion-pt-3.1207513/

A bit slow to start this one up, but as the saying goes, better late than never.

I will amend the OP in due course with a snapshot of the list as well as my thoughts on...

1) Each player on our 2018 list;

2) Our out of contract players and who I don't think will be here in 2019; and

3) Trading & Free Agency. Who might we be in the market for and how are we going to get them?

 

[BlueGum]

Not sure if this has been put up already?
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sp...l/news-story/d077285b22a001310227d6811caad55d


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Hey Lawrence. Can you please give us the headline so we can get at it via Google. Ta

 

[F_therest]

The club said they would adopt a more balanced approach to drafting / trading, not go all in on trading.

I'd like to see them keep pick one and use the second rounders for trading. Jag a FA as well and things are starting to take shape.

I'd prefer, if the option came up, to trade pick 1 for something like Shiel and pick 9.

Get the mature mid gun we need and still hit the draft with a top 10 pick.

Shiels influence next year will help our kids develop more AND take the pressure off a banged up Cripps which is worth it's weight in gold above his individual performances.

Culture and development > draft picks.
Shiel helps us with the former, quicker.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I'd prefer, if the option came up, to trade pick 1 for something like Shiel and pick 9.

Get the mature mid gun we need and still hit the draft with a top 10 pick.

Shiels influence next year will help our kids develop more AND take the pressure off a banged up Cripps which is worth it's weight in gold above his individual performances.

Culture and development > draft picks.
Shiel helps us with the former, quicker.

I don't know why GWS would do that. They are trying to win a premiership, trading one of your best players is crazy.
They are pretty much giving up 9 and ~14 for pick 1 and hugely reducing their ability to win a Grand Final next season.

 

[CJMB]

Not sure if this has been put up already?
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sp...l/news-story/d077285b22a001310227d6811caad55d


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Can't access.

Hey Lawrence. Can you please give us the headline so we can get at it via Google. Ta

Greg Denham suggesting that Carlton are in talks with GWS to trade our first pick for Shiel. A few snippets:

Bottom-of-the-ladder Carlton have identified Greater Western Sydney star Dylan Shiel as their priority recruiting target this year.

Shiel, recognised as one of the best midfielders in the competition, is contracted until the end of next year when he will become eligible for free agency.
But The Australian understands the Blues will attempt to trade for him a year before he comes on to the open market by offering their first selection in the November national draft to the Giants.

 

[BlueGum]

Greg Denham suggesting that Carlton are in talks with GWS to trade our first pick for Shiel. A few snippets:

Thank you CJMB.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Considering most players that are suggested in this thread as not good enough do not want .
Im of the opposite opinion Is our second rounders going to be high enough to get the quality player that will satisfy the masses and get us a quality player we need im doubtful ?
Taking say a brandon ellis one would think he would go for around the pick 25-30 in a trade imo , should we be aiming higher .
Therefore in a strong draft think id rather take our second rounders to the draft and trade pick 1 for a top 5 pick if possible and a 12-15 pick .
Take say 5 pick if its possible to the draft possibly still end up with one of Smith or Walsh taking into account the 2 Kings and Lukosious . And use hypothetically best case scenario pick 12 maybe even chuck in our next years second for a quality player better than an Ellis ?

That's the problem with trading down imo. If we end up with pick 5 and 12 and the top 4 are Lukosius, Walsh, Smith, Rankine (or your next highest rated mid) than before 12 the only KP players taken are King times 2 and Lukosius. Than the deal doesn't look so great.
We could end up with our 4th and 9th rated midfielders which I'd much rather our number 1 ranked over. If we were interested in one of the Kings I think things would be completely different.

 

[Iamcarlton]

That's the problem with trading down imo. If we end up with pick 5 and 12 and the top 4 are Lukosius, Walsh, Smith, Rankine (or your next highest rated mid) than before 12 the only KP players taken are King times 2 and Lukosius. Than the deal doesn't look so great.
We could end up with our 4th and 9th rated midfielders which I'd much rather our number 1 ranked over. If we were interested in one of the Kings I think things would be completely different.

Yes thats certainly a possibility or we could use the 5 in a trade probably wont happen as trading for quality in a lower side is similar to trying to get a quality FA very hard .
All things that will tossed up in conversation by the clubs list management team id except however .

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

McKay and Lukosius play completely different rolls so he won't be keeping him out. If McKay isn't getting a game it will be because of Casboult, TDK and possibly but less likely Kerr. All McKay has to do is play half reasonable football and he has a spot.

Yes but Lukosious and Charlie play almost exactly the same role, and Mckay, Kerr, & Casboult play a similar role, then throw in DeKonig, BSOS. We simply can not carry that many tall forwards on our list.. If and I am still not sold that Lukosious is that good, but if he is close to what is being spruiked then i think a forward like of Charlie, Lukosios and then supplemented by Kerr, Dekonig and who ever else we draft over the next few years will be extremly potent.

Its just a matter of fact that right now we do not have a need for another tall forward, however if Lukosios can not be passed on IMO we should try and cash in on Harry and use him as a means to get the midfielders we desperately need..

For hypothetical sakes, lets say McKay for Norths 2019 1st round pick + some change was able to land us Dylan Shiel.. Who would complain?

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Shiel may want to compensate his old team instead of leaving them with nothing the next year. So he may request a trade at the end of the season. Judd wanted west coast compensated before coming home. So it may actually makes sense that Shiel would want to come home a year before his contract is up. Of course like you said, there is nothing to suggest Shiel wants to come home so everything at this stage is just speculation.

I have never understood this, why would you want to weaken your new clubs chance of success by ensuring they give away picks to compensate fairly for your loss. US sports would laugh at this, you wont see Lebron demanding Cleveland get looked after when he leaves.

The other thing that annoys me about AFL is that we are so reluctant to use the preseason draft, because its not the polite thing to do.. F@rk it, we finish last thats the one advantage we have... why wouldnt we tell Gaff, Dalhouse or who ever is the best uncontracted player to not sign and go into the pre season draft, it would be worth an extra $200k to his salary if we didnt have to give up anything for them.

 

[Blueyourmyboy!!]

Maybe. Id rather look in Angus Brayshaw's direction considering he is OOC. We can offer him more than the Dee's can I reckon.

I think him and Dom Tyson are very gettable with both our second rounders this year.

 

[HARKER]

The club said they would adopt a more balanced approach to drafting / trading, not go all in on trading.
I'd like to see them keep pick one and use the second rounders for trading. Jag a FA as well and things are starting to take shape.

I'd like us to keep pick #1 as well as getting e.g. Shiel & Setterfield, but it's premium midfield talent we're after and picks in the 20's just won't do it.

Who wouldn't love Lukosius, but who wouldn't want two ready-to-go starting mids for the CFC?
We could just go to the draft and nab Walsh or Smith, but would we really be in front should we do so?
Even if Walsh ended up every bit as good as Josh Kelly, wouldn't a ready to go Shiel and Setterfield still be the better bet for us?

All hypothetical I know and trading a premium pick is often frowned upon, but should it be?
I'm stuck on Shiel and Setterfield although it's possible neither may want to come to us, but the fit just seems possible to me.

 

[BluesRule]

We wouldn't be stupid at all. Shiel is quality and exactly what we need.... GWS won't allow Taranto to go along with him, but maybe Setterfield and we know SOS likes Setterfield. So would something like that work for us?
i.e. Shiel & Setterfield for pick #1 (should we have it)

Like it - but will expect them to become "GWS rejects" as soon as they come to us.


Just like Kennedy and Marchbank...

 

[slashin_velvet]

I have never understood this, why would you want to weaken your new clubs chance of success by ensuring they give away picks to compensate fairly for your loss. US sports would laugh at this, you wont see Lebron demanding Cleveland get looked after when he leaves.

The other thing that annoys me about AFL is that we are so reluctant to use the preseason draft, because its not the polite thing to do.. F@rk it, we finish last thats the one advantage we have... why wouldnt we tell Gaff, Dalhouse or who ever is the best uncontracted player to not sign and go into the pre season draft, it would be worth an extra $200k to his salary if we didnt have to give up anything for them.

The other issue is that the players association have taken all the player positive aspects from US sports (free agency, trading future picks for player movement), but the AFL and clubs haven't pushed back to offset this with more control. GWS should be able to send Dylan Sheil wherever they want with a year left on his contract if it gets them the best outcome. And in return, he gets to leave that club as a free agent at the end of that window should be wish.

Scrap free agency compensation which only dilutes the draft pool, and give the club's the freedom to send players wherever maximises value.

 

[MickyB]

I like Shiel but I just don't see the point in this. Why not keep pick 1 and draft the best available, then throw the kitchen sink at a free agent like Gaff. Surely we have the salary cap room to front load a lucrative contract. We can then go after Shiel the year after when he becomes a FA. If Lukosius in the new Nick Riewoldt, you don't give away access to someone like that.

 

[CJMB]

Yes but Lukosious and Charlie play almost exactly the same role, and Mckay, Kerr, & Casboult play a similar role, then throw in DeKonig, BSOS. We simply can not carry that many tall forwards on our list.. If and I am still not sold that Lukosious is that good, but if he is close to what is being spruiked then i think a forward like of Charlie, Lukosios and then supplemented by Kerr, Dekonig and who ever else we draft over the next few years will be extremly potent.

Its just a matter of fact that right now we do not have a need for another tall forward, however if Lukosios can not be passed on IMO we should try and cash in on Harry and use him as a means to get the midfielders we desperately need..

For hypothetical sakes, lets say McKay for Norths 2019 1st round pick + some change was able to land us Dylan Shiel.. Who would complain?

So going with your hypothetical of daft Lukosius & trade Harry... do we keep playing Levi for 2019 to do the relief ruck for Kreuz?

I don't particularly want Charlie or Lukosius doing the relief ruck work, nor do I want us playing dual ruckmen.

I reckon TDK might need another couple of preseasons before he's really ready, and by then it might not be long until he's taking the reigns from Kreuz.

Hard to see us holding onto Levi past 2019 when his contract expires.

I'm not super confident in Kerr's long term future. Seems to be a great kid and works hard but perhaps a bit of an old school lead up forward more than the modern mobile tall like Charlie, Hogan, etc.

BSOS hasn't even been drafted yet and even if we pick him up it might only be as a rookie. Not seeing heaps to suggest he's likely to make it as a footballer.

I think Kreuz/TDK ruck, Harry FF/RR, Charlie CHF & Lukosius HHF could be a great combination for the next decade (obviously that involves TDK taking over from Kreuz at some point)

 

[Nori]

I'd like us to keep pick #1 as well as getting e.g. Shiel & Setterfield, but it's premium midfield talent we're after and picks in the 20's just won't do it....

Giving up pick one is lazy recruiting in my opinion and they don't want to create another hole in the list by filling the one they inherited.

Instead work hard and get Gaff (A Grader) as a FA and then next year get Shiel (A Grader) as a FA. Hold onto their firsts and use their second rounders to trade for more mature talent.

Let's look at the type of players they could potentially get with their second round picks, based on what clubs have already done.

Prestia (Rich)
Caddy (Rich)
Josh Kennedy (Syd)
Hoskin-Elliott (Col)
Matt Kennedy (Car)
Marchbank (Car) etc, etc

I could easily go on to name 20-30 really good players that are still in the game.

No doubt you will point out the trades that haven't worked and my response to that is pick one is already going to land a gun that's ready to play. There's no advantage in trading a gun for a gun. Use the second rounders wisely and bring in really good players that are AFL ready, rather than wasting 2-3 years development time on an 18 year old with high potential.

 

[Nori]

I'd prefer, if the option came up, to trade pick 1 for something like Shiel and pick 9.

Get the mature mid gun we need and still hit the draft with a top 10 pick.

Shiels influence next year will help our kids develop more AND take the pressure off a banged up Cripps which is worth it's weight in gold above his individual performances.

Culture and development > draft picks.
Shiel helps us with the former, quicker.

Sure, if GWS would go for that I'd totally give up pick 1, but if I was GWS I wouldn't do that trade in a million years.

 

[bludrew79]

Perryman, Brodie and/or Keays

 

[Captain Cripps]

I have never understood this, why would you want to weaken your new clubs chance of success by ensuring they give away picks to compensate fairly for your loss. US sports would laugh at this, you wont see Lebron demanding Cleveland get looked after when he leaves.

The other thing that annoys me about AFL is that we are so reluctant to use the preseason draft, because its not the polite thing to do.. F@rk it, we finish last thats the one advantage we have... why wouldnt we tell Gaff, Dalhouse or who ever is the best uncontracted player to not sign and go into the pre season draft, it would be worth an extra $200k to his salary if we didnt have to give up anything for them.

Of our coaches are up to speed, why trade?
Draft our own, develop our own and keep with the plan. Don’t over spend, make players earn their money whilst playing for the jumper. There are a hell of a lot of stars who didn’t go pick 1 or in top 5. For me it goes against what we’re trying to do or if bolts and sos want more wins to save their own jobs ho hum. But for me, stick to the plan, our good promising players each year are adding games to their experience. We don’t need forwards we need to replace players like kruezer simmo Murphy and the like. Time to stack up on mids.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Of our coaches are up to speed, why trade?
Draft our own, develop our own and keep with the plan. Don’t over spend, make players earn their money whilst playing for the jumper. There are a hell of a lot of stars who didn’t go pick 1 or in top 5. For me it goes against what we’re trying to do or if bolts and sos want more wins to save their own jobs ho hum. But for me, stick to the plan, our good promising players each year are adding games to their experience. We don’t need forwards we need to replace players like kruezer simmo Murphy and the like. Time to stack up on mids.

Im led to believe the plan was go to the draft 3 years in a row then go mature players so they are sticking to the plan ? .
Also its not as if we havent been bringing in talent via trade along the way just not all great talent .
Imo i think their would be a fair case to say that some of our players are already getting overpayed just to meet the salary cap base .

 

[Coona Blues]

Perryman, Brodie and/or Keays

Give that man a cigar. If there was to be an add on to a potential Shiel for #1 deal it would be
Bam Bam's mate Harry. A genuine midfielder being forced to play back when given senior opportunity.
Not a star, but a highly likely best 22 piece on maturity.

Personally not excited by Gold Coast under achievers Brodie and Scrimshaw, were some early reports
of abusing the hospitality at a host family, to the point of being relocated. Larikan fringe on reports.
May step up with a return "home" but would be a gamble.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Of our coaches are up to speed, why trade?
Draft our own, develop our own and keep with the plan. Don’t over spend, make players earn their money whilst playing for the jumper. There are a hell of a lot of stars who didn’t go pick 1 or in top 5. For me it goes against what we’re trying to do or if bolts and sos want more wins to save their own jobs ho hum. But for me, stick to the plan, our good promising players each year are adding games to their experience. We don’t need forwards we need to replace players like kruezer simmo Murphy and the like. Time to stack up on mids.

Caddy, Prestia, Townsend, Houli, Grimes, Nankervis.. All Richmond premiership players who were traded into the club, more than 1/4 of the team. Premiership teams are not built 'growing your own'

 

[Faz 2000]

One element of this I definitely do not accept is that Lukosius IN means McKay OUT. It does not and should not.

McKay - should he continue to develop - is a sensational forward/ruck option, which means we would only need to play one specialist ruckman for the foreseeable future.

Curnow - and from all reports Lukosius - are very mobile forwards who have the flex to play flanks, start on a wing, etc. Should it eventuate that we wind up with all those players on our list, that puts us in a sensational position from a gameday flexibility and match-ups point of view, not in a over-loaded position where we have too much of something.

Multiple match-up options? The ability to expose opposition weaknesses? Viable alternatives should injury strike? Can you IMAGINE having these things?!!?

 

[thylacine60]

I have never understood this, why would you want to weaken your new clubs chance of success by ensuring they give away picks to compensate fairly for your loss. US sports would laugh at this, you wont see Lebron demanding Cleveland get looked after when he leaves.

I reckon Juddish ethics will do me.