Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[DangerousD]

Toby Green alone is worth big $$$$ They are so going to struggle keeping interstate players at that club when the salary cap bug hits them …. They will find it a hard sell to stay for the "love of the club".....

I couldn’t believe the story in the paper regarding Greene last week, imagine signing a shiny new deal only for the club to come to you 4months later and ask you to defer payments a year or two.

I agree there is no way they will keep Shiel, Kelly and Cog but I think they have a better chance of re-signing two of them if they get rid of one now and not have them all ooc in the same year.

 

[DangerousD]

You'd offer money you can't afford and hope they don't call your bluff?

If I was GWS and I knew Dylan was leaving and it wasn’t about the cash then yes.

If I was Richmond I wouldn’t have matched the Hawks offer as Vickery probably would of stayed.

Same with Wells at North

Buddy I’m unsure on.

 

[DangerousD]

Feel free to disagree with facts, but you are plain wrong

Feel free to show me a single fact I’ve disagreed on, I’d like to see it.

Here’s a fact for you, a club doesn’t have to justify its 2019 player payments in 2018.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

We are going to have to agree to disagree, if a club matches, who’s to say they can’t afford it? The club only has to be able to pay it if the player stays.

Mate it’s not something you can disagree with. It’s the rule. If an rfa bid is matched and the Trade falls through then the club must honour the matched bid. Hence they must have that space available to be able to match in the first place.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

From the Afl:

Restricted free agents have the right to move to a club of their choice, subject to the current club’s right of first refusal over their services. That is, if the current club can ‘match’ the offer from a suitor club, the player must stay or enter the draft. The tabled offer includes only football payments and Additional Service Agreements (ASA) amounts.


Note the use of the word can. If the current club CAN match the offer. They can’t bluff. They can match if they have the space. If they don’t they can’t match and force a trade. It’s not hard.

 

[Metalcrusher]

Easy big fella, sure you know i don't analyse development by wins and losses.

For me it has always been the long game, play the kids, draft best available, trade needs and add layers to the game plan

Wasn't having a crack at you mate

 

[Beer n Skittles]

From the Afl:

Restricted free agents have the right to move to a club of their choice, subject to the current club’s right of first refusal over their services. That is, if the current club can ‘match’ the offer from a suitor club, the player must stay or enter the draft. The tabled offer includes only football payments and Additional Service Agreements (ASA) amounts.


Note the use of the word can. If the current club CAN match the offer. They can’t bluff. They can match if they have the space. If they don’t they can’t match and force a trade. It’s not hard.

The AFL aren’t running a continuous audit on each clubs salary cap, estimating how much each individual player will get with match day payments performance clauses and ASAs, then telling the clubs what they can and can’t offer in the free agency period.

It’s up to the clubs to manage their salary cap. Plenty have accidentally gone over in recent years, part of the reason why the AFL brought in the flexible cap.

During the FA period clubs are still months away from finalising their list. There’s nothing stopping GWS from matching offers, even if it means they’ll exceed the cap (except the threat of the eventual fallout if the player stays and they do exceed the cap the next year)

 

[Blue and Silver]

You could also say.
What will Shiel do in 5 years time for us. Nothing
What will pick 1 do in 5 years? Probably be still killing it.
Positives and negatives for and against

How do you know? Shiel has performed at this level. Lukosious hasn't, nor has any other draftee.

Draft prospects aren't sure things.

Pick 1's go bust.

Established players, all-australian players are known quantities.

Pick 1 aint sacrosanct. People over-value it

Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk

 

[HereComesJuddy]

How do you know? Shiel has performed at this level. Lukosious hasn't, nor has any other draftee.

Draft prospects aren't sure things.

Pick 1's go bust.

Established players, all-australian players are known quantities.

Pick 1 aint sacrosanct. People over-value it

Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk

And shiel could do a shoulder or knee and then bang. Waste! Its a game of chance. And id choose a Charlie clone or a gun mid type with potentially 12+ years over a guy who is a third banana. Shiel is a great player but his body isnt all that sound. If we are trying to get a gun, just go straight for Kelly.

 

[Funk]

I think Bolts will want to drive a winning culture through the list so if there are games available for taking we will be doing everything to win them, I also think SOS would much rather not have the pressure of having the #1 pick, especially if Lukosious is so heavily spruiked and doesnt quite fit our needs, but the pressure to take him will seem overwhelming with every keyboard recruiter and so called draft expert claiming he is the best they have ever seen, skip him and you could end up with egg all over your face and reputation ruined.. But if we dont have #1 we dont have the pressure.

Recruiting is far from an exact science, even in the NBA where many more resources are spent they can get it wrong.. Last year Philly took Fultz at #1, was a generational player, easily best in the draft.. it already looks a bust yet pick #2 Lonzo Ball has question marks, but pick #3 Jayson Tatum is already a star

Your last paragraph is spot on.

I don't think SOS give a rats about other people's opinions and is very happy to back his judgment.

Although it would be great however if he could let the Geelong cops know just which Falcons we're interested in this year........

 

[DangerousD]

Mate it’s not something you can disagree with. It’s the rule. If an rfa bid is matched and the Trade falls through then the club must honour the matched bid. Hence they must have that space available to be able to match in the first place.

I have not disputed this, you have actually just repeated what I have said the whole time. The club only needs to be able to afford it if the player stays. That is what you have just written above.

If the trade fell through in Shiels case which is extremely unlikely then he would still be able to get to his desired destination at his nominated price through the PSD draft.

If he decided to stay at the Giants then YES they would have to clear the decks to fit him in, but they know and you know that Dylan will leave.

 

[Blue and Silver]

And shiel could do a shoulder or knee and then bang. Waste! Its a game of chance. And id choose a Charlie clone or a gun mid type with potentially 12+ years over a guy who is a third banana. Shiel is a great player but his body isnt all that sound. If we are trying to get a gun, just go straight for Kelly.

12+ is an exageration.

Most players don't get to high standard until season 4 or 5 and decline around season 10-12.

So you mean 6-8 years of maybe A grade talent against 3-4 years of A grade talent in a positionwe need versus one we don't

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[HereComesJuddy]

12+ is an exageration.

Most players don't get to high standard until season 4 or 5 and decline around season 10-12.

So you mean 6-8 years of maybe A grade talent against 3-4 years of A grade talent in a positionwe need versus one we don't

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We need all positions. We arent that good!
Levi is still getting games, what does that tell you?!?

And decline around season 10? Ok... so why get shiel with a 1st? So he has year 8 and 9 with us then drops off? Ok, lets take 2 good years from him

 

[Funk]

Ill take 500k a year for 4 years... Send me to butt$*@% town if you want

Adelaide???

 

[DangerousD]

From the Afl:

Restricted free agents have the right to move to a club of their choice, subject to the current club’s right of first refusal over their services. That is, if the current club can ‘match’ the offer from a suitor club, the player must stay or enter the draft. The tabled offer includes only football payments and Additional Service Agreements (ASA) amounts.


Note the use of the word can. If the current club CAN match the offer. They can’t bluff. They can match if they have the space. If they don’t they can’t match and force a trade. It’s not hard.

It amazes me that you as a footy fan can see the AFL constantly massage and manipulate any situation to get an outcome they want but then refuse to acknowledge that it might happen in the future.

Who is to say a club can’t afford to match an offer? Do you think the AFL is sending accountants to clubs when they match a bid to comb their finances?

Take it to the bank, if Shiel leaves as a FA the Giants will match any bid thus forcing a trade, a trade will get done.

Supporters can jump up and down but if a trade gets done then the Giants don’t have to prove they could have paid, they only have to pay if he stays.

So risk, bluff, call it what you will but the AFL will do nothing.

 

[DangerousD]

The AFL aren’t running a continuous audit on each clubs salary cap, estimating how much each individual player will get with match day payments performance clauses and ASAs, then telling the clubs what they can and can’t offer in the free agency period.

It’s up to the clubs to manage their salary cap. Plenty have accidentally gone over in recent years, part of the reason why the AFL brought in the flexible cap.

During the FA period clubs are still months away from finalising their list. There’s nothing stopping GWS from matching offers, even if it means they’ll exceed the cap (except the threat of the eventual fallout if the player stays and they do exceed the cap the next year)

Thank god, someone with a bit of sense and a more articulated way of expressing it.

 

[HarryFlashman]

And shiel could do a shoulder or knee and then bang. Waste! Its a game of chance. And id choose a Charlie clone or a gun mid type with potentially 12+ years over a guy who is a third banana. Shiel is a great player but his body isnt all that sound. If we are trying to get a gun, just go straight for Kelly.

Sorry, I’m calling bullshit, any player can get injured and it’s a waste....you lose all credibility when spouting that crap

 

[HarryFlashman]

It amazes me that you as a footy fan can see the AFL constantly massage and manipulate any situation to get an outcome they want but then refuse to acknowledge that it might happen in the future.

Who is to say a club can’t afford to match an offer? Do you think the AFL is sending accountants to clubs when they match a bid to comb their finances?

Take it to the bank, if Shiel leaves as a FA the Giants will match any bid thus forcing a trade, a trade will get done.

Supporters can jump up and down but if a trade gets done then the Giants don’t have to prove they could have paid, they only have to pay if he stays.

So risk, bluff, call it what you will but the AFL will do nothing.

Yeah cause the afl & aflpa don’t care about salary cap or players getting screwed over....

 

[Stamos]

Take it to the bank, if Shiel leaves as a FA the Giants will match any bid thus forcing a trade, a trade will get done.

Supporters can jump up and down but if a trade gets done then the Giants don’t have to prove they could have paid, they only have to pay if he stays.

So risk, bluff, call it what you will but the AFL will do nothing.

This just won't happen though. Clubs aren't stupid enough to take the risk.

To get a FA, you offer overs in contract cost because the trade cost is zero. The only exception so far is Dangerfield to Geelong, where he went for under market value, so of course Adelaide could match. It didn't get to that point, they organised a trade beforehand. But clubs can't afford to trade for a player that they've made a FA contract offer to, because the total cost instantly increases dramatically.

The quickest way for a club to **** their list is to over-pay a FA who wants to leave because they were bluffing about matching his deal.

 

[Funk]

We are going to have to agree to disagree, if a club matches, who’s to say they can’t afford it? The club only has to be able to pay it if the player stays.

Who?

Answer - Ken Woods (AFL) will review their TPP and determine if there is cap space or not.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Sorry, I’m calling bullshit, any player can get injured and it’s a waste....you lose all credibility when spouting that crap

Sprouting? Grow up.
Im putting out potential facts. I never said a younger player couldnt get injured! Fact is... B&S stated a player declines at approx 10 years in the system. So because shiel has already done 7 years, im pointing out, 1 injury and its getting close to the end. A new player not so much.

Pull your head in!

 

[HarryFlashman]

Sprouting? Grow up.
Im putting out potential facts. I never said a younger player couldnt get injured! Fact is... B&S stated a player declines at approx 10 years in the system. So because shiel has already done 7 years, im pointing out, 1 injury and its getting close to the end. A new player not so much.

Pull your head in!

Spouting not sprouting- your not trying to grow a player. Injury can ruin anyone- that’s why clubs do dd and get medicals.
There’s more chance a player doesn’t end up an all Australian, so what’s the bigger risk, unknown potential or proven talent??
Both can have career ending injuries tomorrow

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Spouting not sprouting- your not trying to grow a player. Injury can ruin anyone- that’s why clubs do dd and get medicals.
There’s more chance a player doesn’t end up an all Australian, so what’s the bigger risk, unknown potential or proven talent??
Both can have career ending injuries tomorrow

Agree!
And thanks for making a joke of predictive text. You're hilarious

 

[HarryFlashman]

Sprouting? Grow up.
Im putting out potential facts. I never said a younger player couldnt get injured! Fact is... B&S stated a player declines at approx 10 years in the system. So because shiel has already done 7 years, im pointing out, 1 injury and its getting close to the end. A new player not so much.

Pull your head in!

And the age decline basically means any FA is worth ****all, as all FA will be circa 26ish, so that argument is that a kid is better than a FA as they have a longer term to offer...big holes in that logic

 

[HereComesJuddy]

And the age decline basically means any FA is worth ****all, as all FA will be circa 26ish, so that argument is that a kid is better than a FA as they have a longer term to offer...big holes in that logic

Maybe a , or a . Might make your paragraph more readable. Anyways the age decline wasnt my argument. I just said id choose the kid