Mega Thread 2018 Trade Period Discussion part 2! (cont. in Part 3 - link in OP)

[WaynesWorld19]

slightly off track, but hey everyone is right now..
What do people think of this as a Free Agency condition..
If you take a player in Free Agency it costs you your First Draft Pick that year which goes to the club the player is leaving, that also gets rid of the compensation rubbish.

That needs to be massaged a bit ......a David MacKay leaving shouldn't get the Crows a 1st Draft pick ...what if you were GC ....are you saying it costs them #1 next year ?

There is growing support for a system whereby the club recruiting a Free Agent pays the compensation pick rather than the rest of the competition sliding a spot ....we saw the start of that thought process this year, with mature picks being used & able to be traded, versus the traditional compo pick

So Lynch leaves GC ....he has a value, based on all the current criteria; Age, Contract value, length of contract & status .....whatever that value is, Richmond would have to come up with the picks (points) to compensate GC .....but they succeed in that it's not an auction & Richmond is the only club of choice

 

[Scorpus]

We actually haven't drafted as many Victorians as you might think. Several of our big Victorian players were traded in.

The gun players that left are majority non-Victorian: Davis, Tippett, Cameron, McGovern, Bock

 

[GameofSloanes]

If we're talking non-spud players, this is what our Victorian retention looks like since 2000

Kept
Brent Reilly
Richard Douglas
David Mackay
Rory Sloane
Daniel Talia
Brad Crouch
Matt Crouch
Rory Atkins
Kyle Hartigan
Tom Doedee
Jordan Gallucci
Andy Otten

Left
Patrick Dangerfield
Jack Gunston
Jake Lever
Jarryd Lyons*
Ivan Maric*
Chris Knights*

*left for more opportunity/weren't getting games

So if we discount Lyons, Maric and Knights on the leaving side, and Doedee and Gallucci on the keeping side (too young to tell), our retention rate is currently 77%.

This is purely on the drafting side, we also, of course, have players like Jenkins, Lynch and Seedsman who we traded in and decided to extend their contract.

---

As for non-Vic, non-SA players, this is our retention:

Kept
Nathan Van Berlo

Left
Jonathon Griffin
Kurt Tippett
Charlie Cameron
Mitch McGovern

It's also worth pointing out we've had a few SA players leave, including Bock, Mattner, Vince and Davis. We also delisted Victorian players Henderson and Ed Curnow who went on to join Victorian clubs. Matty Wright was an SA lad who we also delisted and played further games for a Victorian club

Thanks for the analysis, saved me for doing it. So about 80%, my (admittedly guessed) figure of 90% was a little high. As Murray2503 pointed out, it's the quality that leaves that is the problem. Danger gave us good service for several years at least and re-signed a couple of times, was always going back eventually it was a matter of when (just 1 more contract would've been good). Lever and Gunston imo were players we perhaps should not have drafted - clearly had character flaws/flight risks from the outset. Need to ensure Gooch and the Dude stay. In the end though 80% is not too bad, certainly good enough for us to say that we are more likely to keep guys we draft this year than they will certainly leave as some think
Not that it matters, but Griffin would have a * imo also

 

[glengowan]

This^

We can cover players with players that can play just as good or even better. Doedee for Lever, in 2017 Mrouch,Brouch and Sloane all took their game to another level when Danger left, I expect us to replace Gov with McAdam/Fog.

The one player we have lost which hurts us in the current state is CC. He was an excitement machine, great offensive and defensive weapons. He would never command the best small defender as that would go to Betts, so this allowed him to run riot.

If we had Dangerfield in 2016/17 there’s a fair chance we win at least one of those premierships.

A defence consisting of Talia, Lever and Doedee would also be much stronger.

In saying that, we’ve so far made the most of replacing or getting value from players leaving us since Dangerfield left. Although I would’ve preferred they turned McGovern in to a top 5 pick (in some shape or form by adding other players/picks). It may still happen with pick 13.

 

[Pugsley]

Played at least 6 years at the Crows, and stayed (so far)
Brent Reilly
Richard Douglas
David Mackay
Rory Sloane
Daniel Talia
Brad Crouch
Matt Crouch*
Rory Atkins
Kyle Hartigan
Andy Otten

Played less than 6 years, and left
Jack Gunston
Jake Lever

Played more than 6 years, and left but not for more opportunity
Patrick Dangerfield

*6th year is 2019

Proof that we retain C grade plodders.

 

[jenny61_99]

But not wrong.

I disagree.

 

[GROTTO]

Proof that we retain C grade plodders.

Its a bloody potato farm.

 

[nightchook]

That needs to be massaged a bit ......a David MacKay leaving shouldn't get the Crows a 1st Draft pick ...what if you were GC ....are you saying it costs them #1 next year ?

There is growing support for a system whereby the club recruiting a Free Agent pays the compensation pick rather than the rest of the competition sliding a spot ....we saw the start of that thought process this year, with mature picks being used & able to be traded, versus the traditional compo pick

So Lynch leaves GC ....he has a value, based on all the current criteria; Age, Contract value, length of contract & status .....whatever that value is, Richmond would have to come up with the picks (points) to compensate GC .....but they succeed in that it's not an auction & Richmond is the only club of choice

yep totally agree it needs a rub.. you get the basic concept though.. although I wouldn't like to see a bottom finishing Carlton offloading players.. lower picks etc to pick up a Lynch and avoid losing their Pick 1.. having said that when was the last time a top end free agent went to a bottom club..

 

[Niximus]

I disagree.

Obviously.
That just makes you part of the problem.

 

[Mike Smyth]

Played at least 6 years at the Crows, and stayed (so far)
Brent Reilly
Richard Douglas
David Mackay
Rory Sloane
Daniel Talia
Brad Crouch
Matt Crouch*
Rory Atkins
Kyle Hartigan
Andy Otten

Played less than 6 years, and left
Jack Gunston
Jake Lever

Played more than 6 years, and left but not for more opportunity
Patrick Dangerfield

*6th year is 2019

Let's analyse your list a little deeper.

Brent Reilly - AFC or VFL/SANFL
Richard Douglas - Never been much interest from other clubs. Average player
David Mackay - LOL
Rory Sloane - A big retention win for the club
Daniel Talia - A big retention win for the club
Brad Crouch - Still playing, still young
Matt Crouch* Still playing, still young
Rory Atkins Still playing, still young
Kyle Hartigan - AFC or VFL/SANFL
Andy Otten - AFC or VFL/SANFL

Played less than 6 years, and left
Jack Gunston - Big demand
Jake Lever - Big demand

Played more than 6 years, and left but not for more opportunity
Patrick Dangerfield - Big demand

So even if I concede on Douglas it's a 50% retention rate. BTW you left out Watts, K Johnson and Hudson.

 

[Thetrader15]

We actually keep about 90% of the vics we draft

That's the problem

"What u talking about?"

 

[ams4crows]

slightly off track, but hey everyone is right now..
What do people think of this as a Free Agency condition..
If you take a player in Free Agency it costs you your First Draft Pick that year which goes to the club the player is leaving, that also gets rid of the compensation rubbish.

that's still shit because the bottom clubs will still lose their best players only this time get even shitter picks Lynch would have landed GC pick 18

 

[1990crow]

Its a bloody potato farm.

Until Brad and Matt Crouch, Talia and Sloane become one club players.. 4 elite players.

 

[spenze]

That's the problem
View attachment 577035
"What u talking about?"

True story. When I am doing my fat boy exercises, I watch old Crows games whilst I go. If someone in the future was to see a 3 minute highlights package of Mookay, they would think he was one of the elite wingmen of his era and no telling them otherwise would change their mind. Never realised just how many gun goals he has kicked, their would be multiple highlights of him taking the ball, running 50 and slotting it

 

[Thetrader15]

Unlikely he will ever play for the crows unless he ends up at gold coast.

Maybe that's why we sent Francou up there...dont trade 2 or 3 to port and grab luko and rankine

 

[Carmo]

Obviously.
That just makes you part of the problem.

Pls go to my thread about our average position on the ladder over the next 3 years. I provided the ladder of the last 3 for comparison. I will be interested in your results, I assume you would have us at say 10 or something like that, out of finals constantly over the next 3? Then we'll see how knowledgeable you are over the next few years as the results come in.

 

[mattymac]

If we're talking non-spud players, this is what our Victorian retention looks like since 2000

Kept
Brent Reilly
Richard Douglas
David Mackay

 

[baldandbroke]

that's still shit because the bottom clubs will still lose their best players only this time get even shitter picks Lynch would have landed GC pick 18

Nah, it will be point based.

Work out what compensation pick it is (Pick 3 for Lynch) and Richmond have to cover the points.

Sent from my Armor_X using Tapatalk

 

[Scorpus]

Let's analyse your list a little deeper.

Brent Reilly - AFC or VFL/SANFL
Richard Douglas - Never been much interest from other clubs. Average player
David Mackay - LOL
Rory Sloane - A big retention win for the club
Daniel Talia - A big retention win for the club
Brad Crouch - Still playing, still young
Matt Crouch* Still playing, still young
Rory Atkins Still playing, still young
Kyle Hartigan - AFC or VFL/SANFL
Andy Otten - AFC or VFL/SANFL

Played less than 6 years, and left
Jack Gunston - Big demand
Jake Lever - Big demand

Played more than 6 years, and left but not for more opportunity
Patrick Dangerfield - Big demand

So even if I concede on Douglas it's a 50% retention rate. BTW you left out Watts, K Johnson and Hudson.

I agree that on a gun for gun basis, we're striking slightly above 50%. Sloane, Talia and both Crouches (maybe Douglas, he was good at one point), versus Dangerfield, Lever and Gunston.

But I actually don't think our retention has anything to do with players being specifically from Victoria.

Victoria: Sloane, Talia, Crouches vs Dangerfield, Gunston, Lever
Other Interstate: Van Berlo vs Tippett, McGovern, Cameron
SA: Plenty of players vs Davis, Bock

Our retention from outside of Victoria and SA is horrific. Not one very good player we've drafted has stayed.

I'm also not sure if our sample size of 6-7 very good Victorian players over 18 years is large enough. We simply haven't drafted many elite players from outside SA. Could you count Lynch, Seedsman and Jenkins as retention wins, signing on for multiple extensions after being traded here?

Personally I reckon our retention has more to do with our payment structure compared to the origin of where a player is drafted. Especially with guys like Davis (SA to NSW), Tippett (Qld to NSW), Cameron (WA to Qld) and McGovern (WA to Vic). McGovern being from outside SA had nothing to do with him choosing to play at Carlton of all teams.

If we draft a gun from interstate and we're willing to pay the price, I think we are more likely than not to keep them. Retaining spuds like Mackay, Hampton, Henderson, Menzel, etc. on fat mid-tier contracts hasn't helped us at all.

 

[Crow Envy]

Assuming we have a decent year next year and our first is 11 upwards, would next years first, 13&16 be worth doing for pick 3 or 4?

Would Gold Coast or Saints be interested?

Leaves us 4,8 & 21. Or is that too much to give?

 

[Scorpus]

Look I think Mackay and Reilly are spuds but the club saw fit to play them for 200 games and they stayed, so they should be counted.

 

[Niximus]

Pls go to my thread about our average position on the ladder over the next 3 years. I provided the ladder of the last 3 for comparison. I will be interested in your results, I assume you would have us at say 10 or something like that, out of finals constantly over the next 3? Then we'll see how knowledgeable you are over the next few years as the results come in.

What?

 

[Crow till I die]

Assuming we have a decent year next year and our first is 11 upwards, would next years first, 13&16 be worth doing for pick 3 or 4?

Would Gold Coast or Saints be interested?

Leaves us 4,8 & 21. Or is that too much to give?

maybe try and get Sk Kilda's 2019 2nd back in that deal so it would potentially be a 5-10 pick downgrade from our 2019 1st to their 2019 2nd

 

[GROTTO]

That's the problem
View attachment 577035
"What u talking about?"

Please dont put him down.

It gives hope to any kid that is shit at footy that they too can live the dream.

 

[DJ75]

Assuming we have a decent year next year and our first is 11 upwards, would next years first, 13&16 be worth doing for pick 3 or 4?

Would Gold Coast or Saints be interested?

Leaves us 4,8 & 21. Or is that too much to give?

I would be very happy with that. Pick 4 gets us one of the guns. Pick 8 a slider. Pick 21 an Ogilvie special.

Can't see any of it happening though. Both GC and STK will want pick 8 in any deal plus much much more.