2019 4th Ashes Test 2019 Old Trafford

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Both the days have it getting cloudy in the afternoon and with the shitty over rates i was just assuming we lose some overs late on both day.

I can't see us giving them a total like 335 in that many overs though, with starc being so wayward and us failing to defend 360 we aren't going to give them a run chase of just 3 an over even just one bad hour with the ball could cost you a test in a chase like that.
 
frankrizzo said:
Both the days have it getting cloudy in the afternoon and with the s**tty over rates i was just assuming we lose some overs late on both day.

I can't see us giving them a total like 335 in that many overs though, with starc being so wayward and us failing to defend 360 we aren't going to give them a run chase of just 3 an over even just one bad hour with the ball could cost you a test in a chase like that.
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True, I reflected after posting that message that 335 wouldn't be enough, you're quite right. 335 from 98 would be more realistic.

As long as Stokes is out there though, England will fancy the draw. Any wicket is a good wicket but getting him out before Archer, Buttler or Bairstow is vital as his explosive batting with the tail would chip away at our lead quickly. Get him early and it's party-time on this thread.

15 wickets in two days for a place in history. The boys deserve to win this series so go get 'em.
 

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Time is Australia's biggest problem here. We need to get Ben Stokes and another four wickets before the question of the follow on is relevant.

If Australia can knock England over cheaply tomorrow and we do not loose any time to rain enforcing the follow on is probably the best option but Australian Captains have been reluctant to enforce the follow on over the years.

Forecast is cloudy with a 10% chance of showers.
 
Still think Australia are in the drivers seat just as far as winning goes
Pre lunch will be a huge deciding factor .

From an Australian perspective would want England bowled out or very close to by lunch today. Don’t want them eating into 3 plus hours play.

This deck will offer more then the Headingley day 4 one did for England to see out . Full day at them you back your bowlers to get it done.
 
Jesus, Paine has just about stamped his papers with that Cummins edge. It hasn’t been the first time in this series either.0

His first instinct for an edge only slightly wide is always for first slip to take it, as soon an older keeper starts doing that, it’s time to go.
 
Doing the maths, we can do this without enforcing the follow on, which would be desirable.

I reckon our brains trust will be looking to set them around 400 and have a day (97 overs) plus a handful of overs at the end of day four.

If we get them out by lunch, we'll be looking at scoring about 200 runs in roughly 55 overs to set that target. Very doable. We might even try to up the ante late in the day and gives ourselves more runs and/or overs to play with.

If England bat half a day, we'll probably have to forego bowling on day four and have one clean day to get ten wickets, hopefully setting them somewhere up around 350 which I'd be shocked if England took on. 320-330 target is probably more realistic if England's 10th wicket falls around the middle of the day.

If England bat to tea we'll be getting into the territory where we'll have less than a day to get the wickets, and almost certainly would be a draw. In this scenario we may even bat the game out, unless we can set them something like 300 off 65.

For England the equation is simple - bat beyond tea and we just won't have time to set a target.

The only way the follow on gets used is if England bat brutally slowly, surviving to tea without having past the target. That scenario is very unlikely and would be a serious patience tester if it does arise.

With all that in mind, what a huge day and what an extremely important first session. I can not wait.
 
arden station said:
We made 8/500 which is great but 4 of our top 6 failed as has been the case throughout the series.

Take Smith and Labuschagne out of the squad and it'd take a very optimistic supporter to say we'd win/have won the series.

On the one hand, it's great we found Labuschagne. No question the ball has moved around and as Steve Waugh said, this guy plays straight and has a very good technique and temperament.

On the other hand, the jury is out on every other batsman in the squad. Even Travis Head. The worrying part is all of those guys have looked more and more susceptible to getting out in their first 20 balls as the series has gone on. Broad has obviously bowled well to the left handers but our other guys get a fail mark for this series.

We have to build a top 6 who can bat in English conditions. Cannot continue to select guys whose record in Australia is far better than OS. Got to get more guys playing full county seasons again because Shield cricket is too misleading.
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On the other hand, apart from Stokes, England's batting line up has been even worse and on home soil to boot.

sss.JPG
 
Andrew Birch said:
On the other hand, apart from Stokes, England's batting line up has been even worse and on home soil to boot.

View attachment 741797
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Factor in stokes having been out one more time than is recorded here, and Burns edging 320 of his 323 runs and it looks pretty poor.
 

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I'm bullish about this. Last test, even after knocking them over for 67, I was nervous. Last test we never got enough runs behind us on a deck that got better every day. Here however, we've finally put on a big score and have all but ruled out another bs escape act victory from England (touch wood!). Batting time has also been important as it means we get to bowl to them on a Day 5 pitch. That said, a lot needs to get right for us to get the win still. Restrict them to 300-350 ideally here, bat out the day to a lead of 300+. Tomorrow put on a quickfire 60-80 then give them 2.5 sessions to survive spin and unpredictable bounce. That's the dream!
 
The Passenger said:
Doing the maths, we can do this without enforcing the follow on, which would be desirable.

I reckon our brains trust will be looking to set them around 400 and have a day (97 overs) plus a handful of overs at the end of day four.

If we get them out by lunch, we'll be looking at scoring about 200 runs in roughly 55 overs to set that target. Very doable. We might even try to up the ante late in the day and gives ourselves more runs and/or overs to play with.

If England bat half a day, we'll probably have to forego bowling on day four and have one clean day to get ten wickets, hopefully setting them somewhere up around 350 which I'd be shocked if England took on. 320-330 target is probably more realistic if England's 10th wicket falls around the middle of the day.

If England bat to tea we'll be getting into the territory where we'll have less than a day to get the wickets, and almost certainly would be a draw. In this scenario we may even bat the game out, unless we can set them something like 300 off 65.

For England the equation is simple - bat beyond tea and we just won't have time to set a target.

The only way the follow on gets used is if England bat brutally slowly, surviving to tea without having past the target. That scenario is very unlikely and would be a serious patience tester if it does arise.

With all that in mind, what a huge day and what an extremely important first session. I can not wait.
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This is all spot on. We won’t enforce follow on even if get the chance to, no way we bat last on this wicket.
 
Lebbo73 said:
They have only bowled for just over two sessions. If the weather forecast is for more of the same then we have to enforce the follow on if it is an option tomorrow.
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Forecast seems to say overcast, but the chance of rain is pretty low. It may happen but shouldn't be a lot.
I don't think the folllow-on, if it even becomes an option, will be enforced. When our bowlers got tired last game they lost their length, which will just play into England's hands again.
I wouldn't even start the third innings with a target in mind. Just bat. Its hard enough for most of the side to do that, without worrying about the pace they score at. Let Warner throw the bat at anything wide, trying to play "Test" cricket isn't working for him so he may as well go back to bash and crash. If he fails again, npothing lost. If it works for an hour, a few runs are on the board and the game has been sped up. But everyone else, just bat - see where things sit at tea if Aus is still batting.
 
We don't need to be too concerned about the target we set. They narrowly chased down 350 on a day 3 pitch, they aren't doing the same on a day 5 pitch so anything over 350 is enough.

If we get Stokes early it could be game over, can't see Bairstow or Buttler sticking around.

Starc is clearly seen as a liability now. I think if England escape with a draw he's played his last Test, if we win it he might get another chance at home.
 
to1994 said:
We don't need to be too concerned about the target we set. They narrowly chased down 350 on a day 3 pitch, they aren't doing the same on a day 5 pitch so anything over 350 is enough.

If we get Stokes early it could be game over, can't see Bairstow or Buttler sticking around.

Starc is clearly seen as a liability now. I think if England escape with a draw he's played his last Test, if we win it he might get another chance at home.
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The only thing starc has going for him is his ability to bowl at the tail. Sadly all bowlers have the ability to bowl at the tail but unfortunately the rest seem to be too stupid to do so and stead bowl above the tail, 2m above the tail to be exact.
 
They really need to be starting early to make up the overs and I dont see anything in the playing conditions that says they have to make up the overs at the end in England. Its illogical to go off for bad light and think you'll have the ability to make up the overs at the end in future days.
 
woota said:
I didn't know anything about this guy pucovski. Just read up on him, and it sounds like he's got all talent in the world, but mental health issues are holding him back from playing at test level.
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Yes, severe anxiety can often be quite debilitating. Hopefully he will learn to manage it as he gets older.
 
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