Analysis 2019 List, Game Plan and Best 22?
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connolly
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I was assuming a fit Reid. Big assumptin. But f Reid goes down certainly he gets a game i woud think.
I have faith.
We went into the season without our number one tap ruckman & lost our Rising Star winner for 80% of the season. Our superstar forward couldn't get on the training track we lost our best young big defender all year. We beat the premiers twice & the runner up in our 1 appearance. Our only interstate losses were to Richmond & Essendon & we dropped some games at home that we'll win in 2019. This was surprising to me as our draw had me fearing we would struggle to make the 8.
Now we have moved on Hanners & Rohan who played in many of those games but were well down on their best so they were basically just any old player filling in in hindsight. We have seen much of our opposition do a bit of window dressing with their lists in this draft period while we seem like we've done nothing.
If we had the results we had with an 18YO holding down CHF next to a fellow who couldn't run out a whole match, then it's fair to assume we are going to be in a better place next season both in attack & in defence once Mills & Melican get back. I haven't even allowed for a fit Reid because that won't be popular on here but should he come good he will be surplus. We were given two 6 day breaks interstate a number of times which is not something the Vic clubs have to endure often but yet we were only 1 game off 3rd position with a bit of percentage.
Now I'm not trying to talk our 2018 season up here but basically actually making sure are given the respect we deserve going into season 2019 because all the window dressing these other teams have dome may look fantastic on the outside but what we achieved in many games in 2018 needed some real character. So I ask the question of these other teams that were talked up this time last year as the trade "winners", Port, Essendon, Geelong, Freo, & the teams that were supposed to improve another step, Crows, Saints, Bulldogs.
What happened guys? I'll tell you what happened. They have no character or lack enough to tough out certain games.
Now we have the ability to tough our way out of tricky periods in games.
So that's why once again we'll be thereabouts, without any fanfare whatsoever & without the window dressing of the previous trade period.
Hell last year we had bitching about how we could let Sam Murray go without giving him a go. Well maybe we know our players very well & know what we are going to get or aren't going to get.
Every team other than West Coast had a bad year basically. Essendon & Port for all the huff & puff missed finals. Geelong with the Holy Trinity were no better than us in their final exit. The Hawks with the greatest coach & greatest ball winning midfielder of all time went out in straight sets on their home turf, the Magpies were blessed to be in a GF against a team that had to travel a few days earlier from the other side of the country & failed on GF day.
The Tigers were just going to go back to back until they didn't. The Demons were got stage fright in their biggest game for a decade & the Crows were just an embarrassment in 2018 after playing of in the GF in 2017.
So we weren't so bad that I would have us being a failure next season.
The 'experts' in the media are at it again & have us falling away badly in 2019.
With a little more luck on the injury front I know what my club will do yet again. They'll be right back in the mix & that gives us every chance to do what West Coast did last year.Just my opinion of course.
We went into the season without our number one tap ruckman & lost our Rising Star winner for 80% of the season. Our superstar forward couldn't get on the training track we lost our best young big defender all year. We beat the premiers twice & the runner up in our 1 appearance. Our only interstate losses were to Richmond & Essendon & we dropped some games at home that we'll win in 2019. This was surprising to me as our draw had me fearing we would struggle to make the 8.
Now we have moved on Hanners & Rohan who played in many of those games but were well down on their best so they were basically just any old player filling in in hindsight. We have seen much of our opposition do a bit of window dressing with their lists in this draft period while we seem like we've done nothing.
If we had the results we had with an 18YO holding down CHF next to a fellow who couldn't run out a whole match, then it's fair to assume we are going to be in a better place next season both in attack & in defence once Mills & Melican get back. I haven't even allowed for a fit Reid because that won't be popular on here but should he come good he will be surplus. We were given two 6 day breaks interstate a number of times which is not something the Vic clubs have to endure often but yet we were only 1 game off 3rd position with a bit of percentage.
Now I'm not trying to talk our 2018 season up here but basically actually making sure are given the respect we deserve going into season 2019 because all the window dressing these other teams have dome may look fantastic on the outside but what we achieved in many games in 2018 needed some real character. So I ask the question of these other teams that were talked up this time last year as the trade "winners", Port, Essendon, Geelong, Freo, & the teams that were supposed to improve another step, Crows, Saints, Bulldogs.
What happened guys? I'll tell you what happened. They have no character or lack enough to tough out certain games.
Now we have the ability to tough our way out of tricky periods in games.
So that's why once again we'll be thereabouts, without any fanfare whatsoever & without the window dressing of the previous trade period.
Hell last year we had bitching about how we could let Sam Murray go without giving him a go. Well maybe we know our players very well & know what we are going to get or aren't going to get.
Every team other than West Coast had a bad year basically. Essendon & Port for all the huff & puff missed finals. Geelong with the Holy Trinity were no better than us in their final exit. The Hawks with the greatest coach & greatest ball winning midfielder of all time went out in straight sets on their home turf, the Magpies were blessed to be in a GF against a team that had to travel a few days earlier from the other side of the country & failed on GF day.
The Tigers were just going to go back to back until they didn't. The Demons were got stage fright in their biggest game for a decade & the Crows were just an embarrassment in 2018 after playing of in the GF in 2017.
So we weren't so bad that I would have us being a failure next season.
The 'experts' in the media are at it again & have us falling away badly in 2019.
With a little more luck on the injury front I know what my club will do yet again. They'll be right back in the mix & that gives us every chance to do what West Coast did last year.Just my opinion of course.
TheMase
Brownlow Medallist
Based on what?
The King!
Chosen One
Youth
Skill
Not being injured all the time
Upside
Incumbent
Minimal difference in statistical output
Reid’s peaked
SSwans2011
Hall of Famer
Disagree. Reid played one game this year and was nearly BOG.
McCartin didn't get even close to Reid's output in the GWS game in any game he played this year. I love McCartin but still have Reid comfortably ahead right now.
The King!
Chosen One
McCartin played
Reid gave us 3 quarters and has given us 20 odd games in the last 70
Body doesn’t allow him to do anything so who cares what he did for a few minutes
I just think we have a gem here let’s play ho
For what it’s worth I’d pick both
I’m just not dropping McCartin for Reid based on 5 minutes of tease , can’t ignore how often he lets us down injured and also with poor peformance
Just my view
Grand Uncle Horace
Shake down the thunder
Agree. Is considerably quicker than Reid and Sinkers and is strong at the contest. I am not enthusiastic about playing Sinkers up forward.
sataris
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'being injured all the time'
2011-2017 (excluding the 2016 season where he got injured before it started)
He played in 81% of all the games the swans had , and most of the games he missed were in 2013.
TheMase
Brownlow Medallist
Youth?
Reid is 26 and isn’t exactly old
Skill / Minimum difference in statistical output?
Reid 2017 vs McCartin 2018
Disposals 13 @ 73% / 9 @ 62%
Marks 6 / 3
Contested Marks 2 / 1
Marks i50 2 / 1
Goals 1.36 / 0.53
Shots at goal 2.14 / 0.93
Score involvements 4 / 3
Tackles 1 / 2
Reid wasn’t injured as an 18/19yo either, and if Reid is fit that becomes irrelevant.
Reid having peaked is also irrelevant.
Incumbent is also irrelevant.
Look I am a huge fan of McCartin. I was one of the ones calling for him to play very early this year when he was in the NEAFL and was a minority early on.
But McCartin is not yet better than Reid. He may well end up being better than Reid, but right now he still has a way to go.
That doesn’t mean he doesn’t play alongside Reid, but I can’t see any reason why he should play in front of a fit Reid.
The King!
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Yeah, the first things you think of with older players are pace and kicking. Smith has never had either but has had no problem blanketing speedy smalls. Can't see why he wouldn't hold his place, barring some sudden dropoff in form. He's only just turned 30, so surely a couple of years left.
Grundy is a harder read. His 'mental health' issue which was really lack of sleep and stress over the new baby, so not clear how much he has declined. With Melican, Aliir, Rampe, McVeigh, SMith and now Thurlow the defence is still pretty solid, even without contributions from Mills and Jones who'll do more time in the middle.
I think where we've been really poor has been in our transitions - slow and with no one to take a mark, making it hard for our inexperienced forward line. With Naismith and Reid returning we should be winning more of the ball at the centre and have bigger marking power. That should make a big difference. Just to have a Reid or Sinclair in the forward line who can take attention away from Franklin would make a huge difference.
We'll really need those players like Heeney, Mills, Papley, Hayward to step up if we are going to be competitive.
Best 22 -- I decided Clarke would come in in place of Hannebery. But couldn't find room for Harry C, which is a bit unfair. I expect Jack will probably get a run which is why he's still on the list. Even though they're different types of players, it will probably be a contest between those three for the final spot.
B: Smith Grundy Rampe
HB: McVeigh Melican Aliir
C: Jones Mills Lloyd
HF: Papley Franklin Heeney
F: Florent Reid Ronke
Foll: Naismith Kennedy Parker
I/C: Sinclair, Clarke, Hewett, Hayward
EMER: Cunningham, Thurlow, McCartin, Dawson, Jack, Robinson
The King!
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The margin in those stats considering experience are minimal
Reid is 27 this year 28 next year
We have these kids let’s play them
But like I said pick both
Force me to choose I’ll take McCartin he’s got more skill
Will have the better career
Reid’s close to done
The King!
Chosen One
https://finalsiren.com/PlayerCompar...ame3=&PlayerName4=&SelectedPlayers=2057,2821,
All up Reid has never built on his promise
All up Reid has never built on his promise
TheMase
Brownlow Medallist
Considerably quicker?
At the 2009 draft combine Reid recorded 2.92 for the 20m sprint. 4th in his draft class.
McCartin last year did not make the top 10 (2.97 being 10th).
Not saying McCartin is slow, but “considerably” quicker than Reid? Not sure about that.....
swansfan51
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Jarrad Waite fulfilled his potential at 32, will his protégé Reid do the same?
The King!
Chosen One
Apparently
His age always gets a deduction too
He will spend most of the year in the stands , maybe telling everyone how consistent he was in 2011 or his 2012 goal
sataris
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He misses 3 games in 10, that's hardly spending the entire time in the stands.
TheMase
Brownlow Medallist
Whether he has built on his “promise” and expectation of supporters again is not relevant as to who is likely to make a bigger contribution in 2019 (IF FIT).
FWIW with your other post, there is nothing to suggest McCartin has more skill.
I do however believe he hits the contest harder than Reid, and it may make him a better footballer overall. I am choosing on right now though, and if I could only choose one to play right now, it would be Reid (and again I am a big McCartin fan...).
The King!
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TheMase
Brownlow Medallist
His potential has nothing to do with it. It is about who is likely to contribute more.
Supporters are disappointed in Reid (aside from injuries) because he hasn’t lived up to THEIR expectations of him.
The King!
Chosen One
Oh well we will see
Guys who miss 2 of their last 3 years often come back fully based on stats from years prior? The body gets more durable I guess.
What odds are being offered Reid plays 11 or more games in 2019?
The King!
Chosen One
He hasn’t performed at an afl forward level most of his career
Just v Brisbane or in moments
The King!
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Dean towers will contribute more than Blakey next year , better call him back 
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Reid is cooked
Body is not up to it
I bet he struggles to get to 10 games next year
Had a full pre season this year and the club were praising him because of it , then broke down
Body is not up to it
I bet he struggles to get to 10 games next year
Had a full pre season this year and the club were praising him because of it , then broke down
