Analysis 2019 List, Game Plan and Best 22?

[S120]

No, no he wasn’t!

The longer the year went on the more he got out-marked and out-bodied by all manner of opponents (Matt Buntine in the final against GWS beat him easily). We were completely unable to keep the ball locked inside 50 towards the end of the year because McCartin wasn't able to compete like we needed him to as a 2nd tall and our pressure being awful.

Again, McCartin shouldn't have been playing and he did the best he could as an 18 yo.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Sorry all the swannies are super we will win the flag in 19, longmire has no excuses

By your standards.......

Injury prone = spud.

I can accept the frustration at the amount of time Reid spends injured. Really I can. I do think it's disproportionate but I can understand it.

But calling Reid a spud is simply pure football ignorance. Any onballer who has put his head over the ball in a contested situation would be thrilled to have Reid on the end of whatever the quality of ball that is delivered in his direction.

Because not only is Sam Reid an excellent mark of a high ball, he gives a second, third and fourth effort. Often with little taps to advantage.

And if you're the little bloke up the field who has to keep putting his head over the ball in a contest, or the bloke who has to gut run over and over, the mental aspect of that is helped enormously by the knowledge that that bloke up the field isn't going to turn it up easily.

And that's worth ****ing stacks.

 

[Mick Oxlong]

The longer the year went on the more he got out-marked and out-bodied by all manner of opponents (Matt Buntine in the final against GWS beat him easily). We were completely unable to keep the ball locked inside 50 towards the end of the year because McCartin wasn't able to compete like we needed him to as a 2nd tall and our pressure being awful.

Again, McCartin shouldn't have been playing and he did the best he could as an 18 yo.

He should’ve been playing because he was picked to play (c’mon, who was going to play in his place) and to be called a liability? Who won the game against Collingwood at the death of the season?

 

[Punts]

Astbury said to Richo after the game that he was super impressed with mccartin

Reckon the kid will be a gun​

 

[TheMase]

Astbury said to Rich after the game that he was super impressed with mccartin

Reckon the kid will be a gun​

I think everyone agrees with that.

Kid is a competitive beast.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

So the frustration of the trade thread doesn't spill over into more bickering here, perhaps we can all agree that:

1. McCartin is a super talent who is not yet quite as good as Reid when Reid is playing.

2. We all wish Reid was playing more and injured less.

3. Towers must be hung like the proverbial Tibetan Yak and Horse couldn't cop the comparisons?

Fair?

 

[Kapanis]

How could he play 100% of games over the next 3 years if he was injured for the entire 2016 season?

And look at all the games he was injured for in 2014. He missed 6.

Why do you claim such rubbish stats? What’s the point?


View attachment 575927

Where does this analysis come from? Is it available for all players?

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

Where does this analysis come from? Is it available for all players?

http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/115786/Sam-REID

 

[Kapanis]

http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/115786/Sam-REID

Thanks

 

[connolly]

Yawn......

The great man. Thanks for that mate

 

[connolly]

I have faith.
We went into the season without our number one tap ruckman & lost our Rising Star winner for 80% of the season. Our superstar forward couldn't get on the training track we lost our best young big defender all year. We beat the premiers twice & the runner up in our 1 appearance. Our only interstate losses were to Richmond & Essendon & we dropped some games at home that we'll win in 2019. This was surprising to me as our draw had me fearing we would struggle to make the 8.

Now we have moved on Hanners & Rohan who played in many of those games but were well down on their best so they were basically just any old player filling in in hindsight. We have seen much of our opposition do a bit of window dressing with their lists in this draft period while we seem like we've done nothing.
If we had the results we had with an 18YO holding down CHF next to a fellow who couldn't run out a whole match, then it's fair to assume we are going to be in a better place next season both in attack & in defence once Mills & Melican get back. I haven't even allowed for a fit Reid because that won't be popular on here but should he come good he will be surplus. We were given two 6 day breaks interstate a number of times which is not something the Vic clubs have to endure often but yet we were only 1 game off 3rd position with a bit of percentage.
Now I'm not trying to talk our 2018 season up here but basically actually making sure are given the respect we deserve going into season 2019 because all the window dressing these other teams have dome may look fantastic on the outside but what we achieved in many games in 2018 needed some real character. So I ask the question of these other teams that were talked up this time last year as the trade "winners", Port, Essendon, Geelong, Freo, & the teams that were supposed to improve another step, Crows, Saints, Bulldogs.
What happened guys? I'll tell you what happened. They have no character or lack enough to tough out certain games.

Now we have the ability to tough our way out of tricky periods in games.

So that's why once again we'll be thereabouts, without any fanfare whatsoever & without the window dressing of the previous trade period.
Hell last year we had bitching about how we could let Sam Murray go without giving him a go. Well maybe we know our players very well & know what we are going to get or aren't going to get.
Every team other than West Coast had a bad year basically. Essendon & Port for all the huff & puff missed finals. Geelong with the Holy Trinity were no better than us in their final exit. The Hawks with the greatest coach & greatest ball winning midfielder of all time went out in straight sets on their home turf, the Magpies were blessed to be in a GF against a team that had to travel a few days earlier from the other side of the country & failed on GF day.
The Tigers were just going to go back to back until they didn't. The Demons were got stage fright in their biggest game for a decade & the Crows were just an embarrassment in 2018 after playing of in the GF in 2017.

So we weren't so bad that I would have us being a failure next season.
The 'experts' in the media are at it again & have us falling away badly in 2019.
With a little more luck on the injury front I know what my club will do yet again. They'll be right back in the mix & that gives us every chance to do what West Coast did last year.Just my opinion of course.

Good post. I plead guilty as charged your honour in regard to Murray. When i said he was good at breaking the lines i didnt realise how true that was.

 

[Number37]

Absolutely. What he did was amazing for an 18yo but when compared to the rest of the key forwards in the league, particularly as the year wore on, he was a liability. Which is fine, he should be at that age and with his body. But he was definitely being overvalued.

He'll play 200+ games but right now, Reid is without question a better player (and yes, I know Reid has to actually play).

Both Reid and McCartin have the same problem, even if they mark it there is no guarantee we will score as a result.

Everything else in his game is very good for this stage of his development but McCartin has a long long long way to go on his kicking. In 3 or 4 years time it needs to be at a level where he can be relied on to kick clutch goals.

 

[caesar88]

So the frustration of the trade thread doesn't spill over into more bickering here, perhaps we can all agree that:

1. McCartin is a super talent who is not yet quite as good as Reid when Reid is playing.

2. We all wish Reid was playing more and injured less.

3. Towers must be hung like the proverbial Tibetan Yak and Horse couldn't cop the comparisons?

Fair?

Number 3 made me lol!

I wish Reid was playing more but also better when he did play. I think I've gone head to head with you over this, or maybe it was someone else, but IMO we're taking the absolute piss if we think having Reid at CHF is the key to our problems. I know this year we lacked a forward structure because we didn't have that marking target at CHF, but Reid ain't our guy. Even with Reid playing, it too often feels like it's down to Bud or bust again.

See: 2017.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Number 3 made me lol!

I wish Reid was playing more but also better when he did play. I think I've gone head to head with you over this, or maybe it was someone else, but IMO we're taking the absolute piss if we think having Reid at CHF is the key to our problems. I know this year we lacked a forward structure because we didn't have that marking target at CHF, but Reid ain't our guy. Even with Reid playing, it too often feels like it's down to Bud or bust again.

See: 2017.

I think that's as much to do with Buddy as anything else. He's the greatest player of the era and it takes a lot of discipline not to kick the ball to the best! That's why I made the point about the onballers being disciplined enough to target McCartin and Reid rather than Buddy.

Make no mistake, good things happen when Reid is the primary target.

 

[S120]

He should’ve been playing because he was picked to play (c’mon, who was going to play in his place) and to be called a liability? Who won the game against Collingwood at the death of the season?

Shouldn't have been playing was the wrong phrasing by me, I don't think he was really ready to be playing as much senior footy as he did. You're right in that we had nobody else so he had to, but that doesn't mean he was adequately prepared to play the role asked of him imo.

Having one fantastic moment doesn't equate to being ready to contribute for 4 quarters. He had done nothing to that point. He certainly had his moments but it's like saying Rohan was a clutch player because he kicked a few game winning goals. That's fine to have some big moments but he also had far larger stretches of nothing to go with it.

I feel like I have to keep qualifying it with I know he's extremely young but that doesn't mean we have to ignore that he really tailed off as the year wore on. If you're just looking at each player as a player and what they contributed it, over the last 2 months of the year he was Rohan like in his contributions. It's just reality imo.

FWIW, I would absolutely pick him for round 1 with Reid and Franklin in the forward line rather than Naismith as first ruck and Sinclair as the 2nd ruck.

 

[RUNVS]

One problem I think we might have in 2019 is if all our talls are fit how are we going to play.

I mean Naismith will be our main ruckman, with Sinclair spending most of the time in the forward line while playing as a second ruck. Where does Reid play then, because having a forward line that includes both Reid and Sinclair would be too top heavy. Not to mention Blakey sometimes going down there, and McCartin pushing for games.

 

[S120]

One problem I think we might have in 2019 is if all our talls are fit how are we going to play.

I mean Naismith will be our main ruckman, with Sinclair spending most of the time in the forward line while playing as a second ruck. Where does Reid play then, because having a forward line that includes both Reid and Sinclair would be too top heavy. Not to mention Blakey sometimes going down there, and McCartin pushing for games.

Best for me would be:

F: Papley - Reid - McCartin
HF: Hayward - Franklin - Ronke/Dawson
R: Sinclair

Emer: Naismith

 

[Mick Oxlong]

Shouldn't have been playing was the wrong phrasing by me, I don't think he was really ready to be playing as much senior footy as he did. You're right in that we had nobody else so he had to, but that doesn't mean he was adequately prepared to play the role asked of him imo.

Having one fantastic moment doesn't equate to being ready to contribute for 4 quarters. He had done nothing to that point. He certainly had his moments but it's like saying Rohan was a clutch player because he kicked a few game winning goals. That's fine to have some big moments but he also had far larger stretches of nothing to go with it.

I feel like I have to keep qualifying it with I know he's extremely young but that doesn't mean we have to ignore that he really tailed off as the year wore on. If you're just looking at each player as a player and what they contributed it, over the last 2 months of the year he was Rohan like in his contributions. It's just reality imo.

FWIW, I would absolutely pick him for round 1 with Reid and Franklin in the forward line rather than Naismith as first ruck and Sinclair as the 2nd ruck.

I don’t disagree with all of that but I do in the fact that you think he tailed off. Just because he’s not kicking goals, doesn’t mean his form tailed off. Early in the season, there was a running joke that he brings the ball to ground but as the season wore on, he was taking very good clutch marks around the ground. He didn’t tail off, he wasn’t a liability, he was a young KPP learning AFL football and improving his enormous potential.

Yes, Naismith has to earn his spot following the season lay-off but everyone has to earn their spot come R1.

 

[Tedeski]

The last 3 years he has basically stolen a salary

IMO this is unfair.
Birchall has also stolen a salary from Hawks.
Reid from Collingwood.
Patton from GWS.
Menzel from Geelong.
Elliott from Collingwood.
Wells from Collingwood.
Daniher for Essendon.
Sandilands for Freo.
Nakia for Cats.


It's a nuisance, yes & I hear your frustration but just part of the game.

 

[connolly]

Best for me would be:

F: Papley - Reid - McCartin
HF: Hayward - Franklin - Ronke/Dawson
R: Sinclair

Emer: Naismith

Thats ok but who is the marking link between the fairly static defense and the forwards? It is usually the CHF which means we have the absurdityof Buddy playing up the wing and turning to pass the ball into the forward line. It seems to be a waste of the greatest forward of a generation to have hm playing this role, famed footskills notwithstanding. Wouldnt Reid with hs mobility and marking skill be the better option playing in front of Buddy? In your configeration Hayward doesnt have the contested marking strength to be a marking link. One other question why would you put McCartin in a forward pocket when we should have Sinclair available to play that role, who is bigger and stronger, better able to be a second ruck on the forward line with Naismith being the No. 1 ruckman. If McCartin is played further up the ground in front of Buddy as a linking mark his foot skills at the moment a really poor.

 

[connolly]

One problem I think we might have in 2019 is if all our talls are fit how are we going to play.

I mean Naismith will be our main ruckman, with Sinclair spending most of the time in the forward line while playing as a second ruck. Where does Reid play then, because having a forward line that includes both Reid and Sinclair would be too top heavy. Not to mention Blakey sometimes going down there, and McCartin pushing for games.

What used to be caled the wing. Hes mobile, strong mark and would be a hard match up

 

[The King!]

presuming fully fit why not something like

Ruck Naismith

HF Papley Sinclair Hayward
F Ronke Franklin Mccartin

Chb Reid - use his marking

 

[S120]

I don’t disagree with all of that but I do in the fact that you think he tailed off. Just because he’s not kicking goals, doesn’t mean his form tailed off. Early in the season, there was a running joke that he brings the ball to ground but as the season wore on, he was taking very good clutch marks around the ground. He didn’t tail off, he wasn’t a liability, he was a young KPP learning AFL football and improving his enormous potential.

Yes, Naismith has to earn his spot following the season lay-off but everyone has to earn their spot come R1.

We'll have to agree to disagree, because I saw McCartin get out-bodied and outmarked far more later in the season than he did earlier in the season.

McCartin's game nous is what really impresses me. His marking is good for someone so young too, but his final quarters against Hawthorn at the MCG and WCE at the SCG (IIRC) were exceptional for a forward of any age, let alone someone so young.

Thats ok but who is the marking link between the fairly static defense and the forwards? It is usually the CHF which means we have the absurdityof Buddy playing up the wing and turning to pass the ball into the forward line. It seems to be a waste of the greatest forward of a generation to have hm playing this role, famed footskills notwithstanding. Wouldnt Reid with hs mobility and marking skill be the better option playing in front of Buddy? In your configeration Hayward doesnt have the contested marking strength to be a marking link. One other question why would you put McCartin in a forward pocket when we should have Sinclair available to play that role, who is bigger and stronger, better able to be a second ruck on the forward line with Naismith being the No. 1 ruckman. If McCartin is played further up the ground in front of Buddy as a linking mark his foot skills at the moment a really poor.

My configuration is pretty rough, I wasn't thinking in terms of exact roles really in terms of where Bud, McCartin, Reid, Hayward would all line up.

In terms of the ruckmen/forwards however, I put McCartin up forward because I'd rather see Sinclair be our number 1 than Naismith. Sinclair has shown more consistently better play as the number one ruck than Naismith ever has in the position. So with that in mind, I'd bring McCartin in as our 3rd tall. There's obviously some logic in Naismith as our number 1 and Sinclair as primarily a forward so I wouldn't be upset if we went with that, particularly for the sake of getting Bud as much help as possible.

 

[TheMase]

One problem I think we might have in 2019 is if all our talls are fit how are we going to play.

I mean Naismith will be our main ruckman, with Sinclair spending most of the time in the forward line while playing as a second ruck. Where does Reid play then, because having a forward line that includes both Reid and Sinclair would be too top heavy. Not to mention Blakey sometimes going down there, and McCartin pushing for games.

I don’t think it’s too top heavy at all. Reid and Franklin are both very mobile forwards (when fit). As is McCartin who has a huge tank for a kid his age, especially a tall!

 

[Skhilton14]

I don’t think it’s too top heavy at all. Reid and Franklin are both very mobile forwards (when fit). As is McCartin who has a huge tank for a kid his age, especially a tall!

Also, look at West Coast's forward line. Kennedy, Darling, plus resting ruckman. Having a group of big men in the forward line gives us variety when it is dry and can always be changed when it is wet.