Analysis 2019 List, Game Plan and Best 22?

[RUNVS]

Same with Papley. He had some injury woes too but I'd love to see him play a lot more closer to goals. He's a classy finisher and I want him crumbing in front of the big sticks.

I suspect playing with a structured and functional forward line might be a bit too radical for Longmire. Much better to turn our small forwards into midfielders.

 

[scaryness]

Surely this is just off-season angst... He's a rookie, just 20 years old and in his first season... lets give him two or three more pre-seasons before we right him off as a flash in the pan.

He had at least 10 disposals in each game he played, a number of games where he laid six or more tackles and ran around in a team that had real consistency problems all year.

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I didn't actually write him off, I'm just throwing it out there that I hope it isn't the case.

 

[Troystenvic]

The club has requested more day games which is a good thing for crowds and also good for game style without all the slipping and dew that makes us almost impossible to watch. Good move if it happens

 

[caesar88]

We can use the day/night excuse all day and night (ba doom tssh) but three of our worst performances this year came during the day. The Port loss, the GC Suns loss, and the elimination final debacle. Let’s face it, we play the SCG like crap, to put it mildly.

 

[aussietomt]

Just away from the recent posts and back to the best 22, we now well realise the tremendous loss that Johnstone is, even though he has not been part of the the best 22 for 5 years.
We appear to have the key positions of full back and centre half back covered by Grundy, Melican, Aliir, Marsh and perhaps Reid but the beauty of Johno was his kit bag of versatility such as shutting down dangerous opponents like Gunston, who he monstered in the 2012 grand final, his run from half back and a complete understanding of never letting his opponent off the chain.
We now have Rampe playing a similar role but he has been asked too many times to line up on much bigger opponents.
My question out of all this build up, what is the current opinion of Maidment? is he a key, a runner or stopper and how does measure up as a future prospect at the top level. Living 500kms out of Sydney hasn't allowed me the opportunity to see him at NEAFL level.
His video at the time of his drafting was somewhat positive. any expectations that he is quietly building up to being very useful?

 

[aussietomt]

Hmmm... I had Cunningham have a go at the tagging role and freeing up Hewett to be the other inside mid in place of Titch. But I think using him in Lloyd's current role and moving Lloyd back to the wing would work really well. Then, as we have Naismith rucking, we can maybe have Jones tagging... he would definitely learn a lot tagging the greats.

What do you think?

Jones tagging.....now that is a frightening thought. Sure it would be for our coaches anyway. Positive he would be out more than he played....think Phil Carmen, Ronnie Andrews, Muir, Balme (I could go on) and the other serial pests.

 

[caesar88]

Just away from the recent posts and back to the best 22, we now well realise the tremendous loss that Johnstone is, even though he has not been part of the the best 22 for 5 years.
We appear to have the key positions of full back and centre half back covered by Grundy, Melican, Aliir, Marsh and perhaps Reid but the beauty of Johno was his kit bag of versatility such as shutting down dangerous opponents like Gunston, who he monstered in the 2012 grand final, his run from half back and a complete understanding of never letting his opponent off the chain.
We now have Rampe playing a similar role but he has been asked too many times to line up on much bigger opponents.
My question out of all this build up, what is the current opinion of Maidment? is he a key, a runner or stopper and how does measure up as a future prospect at the top level. Living 500kms out of Sydney hasn't allowed me the opportunity to see him at NEAFL level.
His video at the time of his drafting was somewhat positive. any expectations that he is quietly building up to being very useful?

I don’t rate Maibaum much based on what I’ve seen in the NEAFL. Then again I didn’t rate Aliir and Melican that highly before they got their senior call-ups.
As for Johnson’s replacement, while I love AJ I think we can all surely agree that Sir Dane has been a more than adequate replacement. For a few years he was able to take the Gunstons of the world while still playing with his signature flair. I think we make excuses for him because he’s really endeared himself to Swans fans and even opposition supporters alike. But I think he’s become dotty the last few years and plays the man too much. That’s not just when he plays on bigger blokes. Even Gunston gives him a bath now. Maybe with Thurlow coming in it might free up Sir Dane a bit more and help him rediscover his best form, but I personally don’t see a spot for Thurlow in the 22.

 

[Number37]

I don’t rate Maibaum much based on what I’ve seen in the NEAFL. Then again I didn’t rate Aliir and Melican that highly before they got their senior call-ups.
As for Johnson’s replacement, while I love AJ I think we can all surely agree that Sir Dane has been a more than adequate replacement. For a few years he was able to take the Gunstons of the world while still playing with his signature flair. I think we make excuses for him because he’s really endeared himself to Swans fans and even opposition supporters alike. But I think he’s become dotty the last few years and plays the man too much. That’s not just when he plays on bigger blokes. Even Gunston gives him a bath now. Maybe with Thurlow coming in it might free up Sir Dane a bit more and help him rediscover his best form, but I personally don’t see a spot for Thurlow in the 22.

Thurlow can easily slot into Lloyd's spot.
Lloyd can move to the wing.

 

[caesar88]

Thurlow can easily slot into Lloyd's spot.
Lloyd can move to the wing.

Assuming you want that move to have more drive off half back, I’m not sure a 190cm defender provides that. I’d rather just have Melican in the team with Aliir & Sir Dane, then a Stoddart/Ling/O’Riordan type rebounding off half back.

But I endorse Lloyd on the wing (won’t ever happen though)

 

[Number37]

Assuming you want that move to have more drive off half back, I’m not sure a 190cm defender provides that. I’d rather just have Melican in the team with Aliir & Sir Dane, then a Stoddart/Ling/O’Riordan type rebounding off half back.

But I endorse Lloyd on the wing (won’t ever happen though)

Lloyd isn't much of a defender, we just need someone that can kick.
By all reports Thurlow is/was a good kick.

 

[caesar88]

Looking at some of the ins the club have indicated, then looking at the 22 from that last final, there will be interesting battles for senior spots over the pre-season.

Hanners - Clarke.
Newman - Thurlow? Ling? O’Riordan?
Jack - Mills.
Robinson - Dawson.
McCartin - Reid.
Grundy - Melican.

But who makes way for Blakey, who has been talked up as a starter, and Naismith, who the club seem keen on? And what if Horse isn’t prepared to drop a veteran like Jack, even if he under performs? I suppose some will have to wait until injuries strike to get their chance.

 

[caesar88]

Lloyd isn't much of a defender, we just need someone that can kick.
By all reports Thurlow is/was a good kick.

What’s the point in having a good kick if we go wide every time anyway

 

[TheMase]

What’s the point in having a good kick if we go wide every time anyway

We go wide everytime because we don’t have good kicks that can take the risk of going into the corridor.

We get exposed...

Perhaps they want to change that...

 

[caesar88]

We go wide everytime because we don’t have good kicks that can take the risk of going into the corridor.

We get exposed...

Perhaps they want to change that...

Or maybe we could just do what we did in 2016. Go down the middle with Lloyd as the release player. He doesn't have to kick it 50m because he will help it travel that distance anyway with his run and carry out of the defensive 50. Feels like we haven't seen that in a long time, Lloyd actually using space to run and create. Because instead Lloyd's basically left on the last line of defence and the team sets up accordingly. That is clearly structural and instructional, which clearly makes it a coaching issue. Even when our long and penetrating kicks like Sir Dane get it, they go wide. It's very obvious it's drilled into this side.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

So the list has contracted by a further two today.

By my count eight of the main list have now departed with two gains plus the Ronke upgrade. Two rookies have gone. I wonder if Fox will be offered a one year upgrade. Rose may hang on

 

[The King!]

We go wide everytime because we don’t have good kicks that can take the risk of going into the corridor.

We get exposed...

Perhaps they want to change that...

They haven’t changed it since the mid 90s so would be surprised

 

[The King!]

We can use the day/night excuse all day and night (ba doom tssh) but three of our worst performances this year came during the day. The Port loss, the GC Suns loss, and the elimination final debacle. Let’s face it, we play the SCG like crap, to put it mildly.

Find a ground we can play 4 quarters at please

 

[caesar88]

Find a ground we can play 4 quarters at please

Anywhere but the SCG.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Once we were dominant at the SCG in forcing the Oppo wide and protecting the corridor. The situation is now reversed.

I think the chippetty chip inside D50 strategy lends itself to problems at the SCG.

 

[caesar88]

Once we were dominant at the SCG in forcing the Oppo wide and protecting the corridor. The situation is now reversed.

I think the chippetty chip inside D50 strategy lends itself to problems at the SCG.

I saw the worrying trend as far back as 2016 when we were still actually pretty formidable there. That tendency to stifle ourselves into a sideways, conservative game. It's absolutely baffling that we simply do not know how to play this ground where we play every second week. I gave H&C the benefit of the doubt that maybe they were just tinkering with the game plan and it was all part of some grand scheme to make us even better at the SCG than we already were. Well, after so many putrid losses this year at home, it's clear they really just don't know what they're doing.

It's a shorter ground. It should only take 2-3 kicks to get it into the forward line, and waiting there is the best forward of a generation. That should be a massive advantage for us. I get it, it's not that simple. Opposition teams will obviously try to nullify that advantage by protecting the corridor. So why then, are we the ones consistently being forced wide, given no space to move the ball, while our opponents have free reign over the corridor? Sick of seeing opposition teams who play at the SCG once in a blue moon come to our home ground and give us a lesson in how to play it. The worst part is that it's been a problem as I've said since even 2016, but it's gotten worse and worse and the coaching staff haven't been able to arrest it.

 

[replicant]

I saw the worrying trend as far back as 2016 when we were still actually pretty formidable there. That tendency to stifle ourselves into a sideways, conservative game. It's absolutely baffling that we simply do not know how to play this ground where we play every second week. I gave H&C the benefit of the doubt that maybe they were just tinkering with the game plan and it was all part of some grand scheme to make us even better at the SCG than we already were. Well, after so many putrid losses this year at home, it's clear they really just don't know what they're doing.

It's a shorter ground. It should only take 2-3 kicks to get it into the forward line, and waiting there is the best forward of a generation. That should be a massive advantage for us. I get it, it's not that simple. Opposition teams will obviously try to nullify that advantage by protecting the corridor. So why then, are we the ones consistently being forced wide, given no space to move the ball, while our opponents have free reign over the corridor? Sick of seeing opposition teams who play at the SCG once in a blue moon come to our home ground and give us a lesson in how to play it. The worst part is that it's been a problem as I've said since even 2016, but it's gotten worse and worse and the coaching staff haven't been able to arrest it.

I think it's simpler than that. We used to play a style where we would go to contests, even to the boundary to force stoppages. Since we used to win a lot of stoppages, we could play that grinding style, and the shorter SCG is suited to it.

But last year we had too many young kids playing. We actually changed our gameplan last season (despite the constant "we have played the same style, coaches blah blah" refrain on here). However the kids we have got out-positioned and out-bodied in a lot of their 1-on-1 contests. The new gameplan was actually quite good and attacking when it worked, but by the end of the season the kids were to tired or beaten up to execute it.

With another pre-season and and a bit more size and development of the younger guys, we'll see improvement this year, without any need for major revisions of how we play.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

One of the things that struck me during the season was the times we would start well and then go defensive.

Of course momentum shifts in games, but in 2018 it seemed endemic to our game style. Maybe we were simply not good enough to go on with it and record dominant wins. Alternatively the coaches lacked the confidence in the team's ability to go on with it.

Irrespective, Id like to see us have VB more convincing wins in 2019. Maybe maturity and more for personnel will help and/or a shift in game plan

 

[Deccas]

I rewatched probably our best win of the season the round 21 victory against Melbourne and had a few thoughts. I reckon our midfield is closer to very good than is widely considered. Mills and Heeney are going to be absolute weapons next year and I think we have the solid inside players in Kennedy Parker Hewett and a lot of good outside runners to cause problems. I expect Florent Cunningham and Jones to seriously contribute next season, and between Stoddart Ling McVeigh Lloyd aliir and Oriordan I don't think we will struggle to get it going our way.

I know people are sick of small forwards going to the mids but ronke could really be that explosiveness we have been missing.

Hitting the draft hard has been okay, the kids are alright.

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[RUNVS]

Here is what I think is a very important stat. Here is the kicking efficiency of the Swans players in 2018. For the purposes of this I did not include players like Cameron and Ried, who technically have stats but they both played too little for the stats to be relevant.

1. Grundy - 81.6%
2. Melican - 80.8%
3. Rampe - 77.1%
4. Lloyd - 75.7%
5. McVeigh - 75.7%
6. Fox - 74.1%
7. Marsh - 73.9%
8. Jones - 73.7%
9. Aliir - 73.6%
10. Cunningham - 72.9%
11. Mills - 72.3%
12. Newman - 70.1%
13. Dawson - 69.7%
14. Hewett - 69.4%
15. Robinson - 68.2%
16. Towers - 66.7%
17. Smith - 65.9%
18. Hayward - 64.7%
19. Papley - 63.9%
20. Rohan - 60.6%
21. McCartin - 59.4%
22. Sinclair - 59.3%
23. Johnson - 58.3%
24. Franklin - 57.3%
25. Heeney - 56.9%
26. Parker - 56.7%
27. Florent - 56.5%
28. Ronke - 53.3%
29. Hannebery - 50.4%
30. Rose - 50.0%
31. Stoddart - 50.0%
32. Kennedy - 48.0%
33. Jack - 47.0%
34. O'Riordan - 45.8%

What concerns me most on that list is look at our high disposal midfielders. Other than Lloyd they are all awful kicks with Heeney the best of the bunch at 56.9%.

 

[Deccas]

Here is what I think is a very important stat. Here is the kicking efficiency of the Swans players in 2018. For the purposes of this I did not include players like Cameron and Ried, who technically have stats but they both played too little for the stats to be relevant.

1. Grundy - 81.6%
2. Melican - 80.8%
3. Rampe - 77.1%
4. Lloyd - 75.7%
5. McVeigh - 75.7%
6. Fox - 74.1%
7. Marsh - 73.9%
8. Jones - 73.7%
9. Aliir - 73.6%
10. Cunningham - 72.9%
11. Mills - 72.3%
12. Newman - 70.1%
13. Dawson - 69.7%
14. Hewett - 69.4%
15. Robinson - 68.2%
16. Towers - 66.7%
17. Smith - 65.9%
18. Hayward - 64.7%
19. Papley - 63.9%
20. Rohan - 60.6%
21. McCartin - 59.4%
22. Sinclair - 59.3%
23. Johnson - 58.3%
24. Franklin - 57.3%
25. Heeney - 56.9%
26. Parker - 56.7%
27. Florent - 56.5%
28. Ronke - 53.3%
29. Hannebery - 50.4%
30. Rose - 50.0%
31. Stoddart - 50.0%
32. Kennedy - 48.0%
33. Jack - 47.0%
34. O'Riordan - 45.8%

What concerns me most on that list is look at our high disposal midfielders. Other than Lloyd they are all awful kicks with Heeney the best of the bunch at 56.9%.

I dunno, i reckon this says a lot more about the type of kicks that defenders take on than it does about how good everyone is at kicking the footy. Franklin is a much better kick than Grundy, he just takes his kicks in a different part of the ground.

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