Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread #2

[PurpleEyes]

Umm well sort of yes and sort of no.

If a bid comes after your last pick, you pay with future picks. But they’re is a caveat here, the AFL assumes you win next years final and you have the last pick in each round, so there is a cap on the future points you can use. The value of picks 18, 36, 54 and 72 added together. And seeing as GC has a mid first round PP next year, each of those picks has been pushed back one spot.

If a bid comes, and you still have picks in this years draft, you MUST use the next available pick to match. If more points are required then the next pick again is used, or future picks/points if you have no more picks in this years draft.

So prior to trading, Freo had 7, 26 & 83.
If Freo had have got #6 for BHill, and Henry had have been picked between #8 and #20 by another team, then we would have had to use #26 + future points to bid for him.
Whereas, with 12,18 & 26, Freo would be in a much better position to bid for Henry if any other team picks him at any time between #8-#17 & #20-25 without needing the use of future picks.

Anyways, it's all hypothetical until we get more details of the BHill trade and then what Henry's pick is.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Do you think the Bulldogs would give up 13?

Plus 18 is needed for Dougal Howard.

I could see a trade like:
12,18, 2020 4th> 10, Howard

If Tom Morris is correct I would have done the 6 and 2020 2nd myself but would have made getting Dougal Howard very difficult.

Paddy Ryder is off exploring alternative options because Saints bit off more than they can chew. Colin Young you better get to work son.

What about 10, an early second round pick & Acres > BHill??

The Bulldogs would need to get an early second to trade for Bruce for this to work.

I’m reasonably confident 10 will get in before Henry bid. The 10 will drop back to 11 (with Green bid) but we only really have two picks to worry about in 9 (North Melbourne) & 10 (Essendon or Sydney) as we will hold 8 and 11.

As I sit today it looks to me that the Saints have gone BHill won’t get done. Colin Young said there were a number of other Vic Clubs interested. Might be a slight pay cut but at this stage no deal looks like getting done with Saint Kilda.

I dont think the Dogs will have a choice, Saints like us, know how valuable the player they are after is to them

And he's contracted. Dogs will have to break up 13 to keep St Kilda happy.

They realistically were never going to keep 13 while brining in Bruce and Keath whithout going into next year.

They have up to 3 top 20 NGAs/FSs for next year so they cant dip into next year.

They want Bruce and he's contracted so they break up 13

 

[Taylor]

Would lol hard if Hill went to another club and they paid up. Example being melb.

This door is opening isn't it.

Pick #3 and #22 for Langdon and Hill.

GWS will be smashing the door down to get that #3 pick in exchange for pick #6. The interesting thing would be what we could shake look along with it.

 

[Sully90]

Why do people here see 12 and 13 for Hill as such a loss?

 

[Quokka]

This door is opening isn't it.

Pick #3 and #22 for Langdon and Hill.

GWS will be smashing the door down to get that #3 pick in exchange for pick #6. The interesting thing would be what we could shake look along with it.

3 + 22 for 6 + Hately

 

[Quokka]

Why do people here see 12 and 13 for Hill as such a loss?

I wouldn't as both are likely before Henry, but saints would have to get 13, 12 + 18 is the problem.

 

[Scythe94]

This door is opening isn't it.

Pick #3 and #22 for Langdon and Hill.

GWS will be smashing the door down to get that #3 pick in exchange for pick #6. The interesting thing would be what we could shake look along with it.

Would maybe ask for a late pick back, but this would be perfect for both parties.

Unfortunately Melb will likely split the pick and draft two more inside midfielders who can’t kick.

 

[elsleevador]

Only one Doig medal winner has been a top ten draft pick.

Hahaha. That bloke won nearly every Doig Medal ever!

 

[Ge3ks]

At least Belly doesn't sulk like this mob;


'Port Adelaide has been left so angry by Orazio Fantasia’s backflip that they’ve ruled out acquiring him in next year’s trade period.'

 

[Superkoops]

As much as I hate Colin Young. He always has plans A,B,C and D. He always does.


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Is Adelaide involved in this plan in some way?? They have pick 4 and happy to split.

A three way between Bulldogs (have picks 13, 32), Saints (Bruce, 12,18), Adelaide (4, 28, Keath) plus later picks for each.

Adelaide end up with 12 + 13 as well as decent change. So will need some other 3rd and 4th round pick swaps and some creativity. Bulldogs get 18 and Saints get 4 and 28. Adelaide would need third round pick to work for them.

 

[Cobbler]

At least Belly doesn't sulk like this mob;


'Port Adelaide has been left so angry by Orazio Fantasia’s backflip that they’ve ruled out acquiring him in next year’s trade period.'

Well imagine if Orazio has given them a verbal yes, so Port put up Dougal or others to accommodate and then he pulls out?

 

[Waterhouzin]

This door is opening isn't it.

Pick #3 and #22 for Langdon and Hill.

GWS will be smashing the door down to get that #3 pick in exchange for pick #6. The interesting thing would be what we could shake look along with it.

Now this would have me doing cartwheels !

Any Melbourne supporters on here like to give their thoughts?

 

[go_the_dockers]

Why do people here see 12 and 13 for Hill as such a loss?

We said no to 6 and 2020 2nd rounder.

 

[Taylor]

We fell to bits here two years ago when Gold Coast offered us three second round picks for Weller as well.

 

[eastfreo75]

Why do people here see 12 and 13 for Hill as such a loss?

do you think the trade will happen?

Saints will try to low ball us.

 

[Bender571]

Now this would have me doing cartwheels !

Any Melbourne supporters on here like to give their thoughts?

I doubt the Dees would pickup all of Hill, Langdon, AND Tomlinson

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

do you think the trade will happen?

Saints will try to low ball us.

They arent going to come back with a deal worse than 6 and a future 2nd

 

[ChimpaWompa]

wheres pick 13 coming from, they have picks 12 and 18

 

[Fireballs]

St.Failda doing what they do best

 

[ubiquitous226]

They arent going to come back with a deal worse than 6 and a future 2nd

Is the basis for this one Tom Morris article?

 

[wayToGo_]

Because one is a star player and one is a handy but not star player. The second half of the sentence was Hogan for two Josh Jenkins.

The point was clear.

I wouldn't swap Dustin Martin for two Kamdyn McIntoshs. Nor a Brad Shepherd for two Josh Rothams.

The point is that we can't play 44 players in a game so having twice as many top thirty picks is no good to us, we need our best 22 to be full of more elite players.

Yes but the debate is about whether you are better off with one pick below 10 or 2 picks above 10 (below 22). You seem to be equating elite talent means you have to use a sub 10 pick - which simply isn't true.

If you look at the Brownlow this year none of the top 5 were picked with sub 10 picks (Danger was a pick #10, Fyfe #20, Cripps #13, Neale #58, Kelly #24). I'm not going to claim that means you can't pick up elite talent with sub 10 picks (as Martin #3, Bont #4 etc) but there are also plenty more examples of players taken later in the first round or even second round that are elite (Grundy #18, Higgins #11, Merrett #26, Mitchell #21 etc).

Your table about earlier picks playing more AFL games doesn't consider the quality of the players and would likely be skewed by clubs being willing to give players taken with earlier picks given more time to prove themselves (because they cost more - it's easy to throw away a stereo you spent $50 on but not so much the $1000 one even if it's crap). Therefore I don't give it a lot of weight in this debate.

Like I said from the start, I wouldn't complain if we had of gotten 6 & 7 and used both in the draft but I also think people aren't being realistic if they don't think you can pick up two similar guns using picks in the teens and early 20s. Trade Radio has been going on about Geelong using their draft haul from Kelly (which is only teen and 20s & 30s picks) and yet we could go in with a far better hand if we want.

 

[Van_Dyke]

wheres pick 13 coming from, they have picks 12 and 18

In a hypothetical trade with the Bulldogs for Josh Bruce

 

[Taylor]

Yes but the debate is about whether you are better off with one pick below 10 or 2 picks above 10 (below 22). You seem to be equating elite talent means you have to use a sub 10 pick - which simply isn't true.

If you look at the Brownlow this year none of the top 5 were picked with sub 10 picks (Danger was a pick #10, Fyfe #20, Cripps #13, Neale #58, Kelly #24). I'm not going to claim that means you can't pick up elite talent with sub 10 picks (as Martin #3, Bont #4 etc) but there are also plenty more examples of players taken later in the first round or even second round that are elite (Grundy #18, Higgins #11, Merrett #26, Mitchell #21 etc).

Your table about earlier picks playing more AFL games doesn't consider the quality of the players and would likely be skewed by clubs being willing to give players taken with earlier picks given more time to prove themselves (because they cost more - it's easy to throw away a stereo you spent $50 on but not so much the $1000 one even if it's crap). Therefore I don't give it a lot of weight in this debate.

Like I said from the start, I wouldn't complain if we had of gotten 6 & 7 and used both in the draft but I also think people aren't being realistic if they don't think you can pick up two similar guns using picks in the teens and early 20s. Trade Radio has been going on about Geelong using their draft haul from Kelly (which is only teen and 20s & 30s picks) and yet we could go in with a far better hand if we want.

I'm very much on board with your position on this.

I just think that your odds of picking up the gun is much better when there aren't 10 players taken before them. There aren't five players in a draft that are quick, elite kicking all day runners. Every player taken off the table strips away the ability/ those left have a deficiency.

We have done very well out of our later picks and poorly from our early picks. I'd rather we had the choice of more remaining players than choosing from Sheridan/Tucker etc.

I'm comfortable taking a player ahead of where they are rated to ensure we get them but I hope that should we have later picks that Henry isn't bid on until pick 23 and I look like a overly worrying goose while we walk away with five players inside pick 25.

 

[Carnthedockers]

100% I want to see brad running around with freo next year.
He was friggin awesome watching his running efforts this year and I want to see that in freo colours for as long as possible.

Next years a whole new start for the club and a naturally attacking player like brad could thrive even more at Optus under our new game plan.
I want see Freo playing some exciting football next year and as a player they don’t come much more exciting and attacking as brad.

He may even increase his value again who knows

He loves playing with his bros shilly and sonny for freo .
He’s a knockabout lad.
It’s his gold digging missus and manageras as much as him that wanted this move.

He’s contracted STILL for another year after next .

We ll have just the same power at the trade table then as we do now.

Look forward to seeing you rip it up at Optus next year for freo brad

Well said. Love that honesty!

 

[se17enteen]

Think of this.

When two clubs are negotiating, the first one to leak to the media is always the one with the weak hand.

Who do you think leaked that story to Tom Morris?


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