List Mgmt. 2020 Draft Mega Thread - picks 35, 47, 57, 59, 73, 95

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RangaInTeal said:
So where is the sweet spot for a Jones bid holding the selections we currently have? Are we better off Adelaide bidding early or with pick 8 if Campbell and JUH are bid on in the first 4 selections?
Click to expand...
Around pick 10 is ok, pick 8 means we might have to go into small deficit if Schofield gets taken between 28-32.

If someone bids on UGH and Campbell before's Adelaide's current second pick at 8, then 8 becomes 10. They would bid on Jones with that IMO.

If Essendon get a first round compo pick for Daniher that pushes it to 11. If Adelaide get pick 2 for Crouch compo that pushes it to 12. If someone also bids on somebody else like Davies before Adelaide's pick 8 it pushes it to 13. All those scenarios leave Port off ok with the current picks they have. But if Adelaide get 1 and Crouch compo gives them 2 they might bid on Jones with that and that leaves us with a large deficit for next year.

If 8 becomes 13 then 26 becomes 31 but lets say 35 allowing for 4 more compo picks at end of Rd 1. Some picks before 26 could be eliminated depending on who uses them so 26 could become 25 or 27 not 35 but lets be conservative. Same with our other picks, let's be conservative with what picks are eliminated.

A bid at pick 8.. 1,551 pts - 20% discount = 1,241 pts
A bid at pick 10 1,395 pts - 20% discount = 1,116 pts
A bid at ick 13.. 1,212 pts - 20% discount = 970 pts

Pick 26 becomes 35...... 729 pts becomes 522 pts
Pick 31 becomes pick 40 606 pts becomes 429 pts
Pick 39 becomes pick 48 446 pts becomes 302 pts

In the above scenario we need 371 less pts moving from matching a bit at 13 compared to 8 but our picks being pushed back we have lost 528 pts for a net loss of 157 pts.

But it could be less than that depending on how many bids are made and how many picks are eliminated using those bids.

Where is the sweat spot?? Its hard to say when 15 matching player bids are likely to be made, 5 or 6 compo picks added and maybe 30 picks are eliminated in the process of making matching bids, given we will bid on Schofield and he seems to have a wide range of where he could go.

Having to match a bid between 2 and 5 involves pain carried forward to next year's first round pick. 6 and 7 less so, but still pain. Having to match a bid at 8 or later is fine.

If the crows bid on him at pick 1 its just being vindictive to Port. He isn't the best player in the draft. Logan McDonald is the best player I've seen and he's rated top 3 but I watched 3 games of him play for Perth.
 
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RussellEbertHandball said:
Around pick 10 is ok, pick 8 means we might have to go into small deficit if Schofield gets taken between 28-32.

If someone bids on UGH and Campbell before's Adelaide's current second pick at 8, then 8 becomes 10. They would bid on Jomas with that IMO.

If Essendon get a first round compo pick for Daniher that pushes it to 11. If Adelaide get pick 2 for Crouch compo that pushes it to 12. If someone also bids on somebody else like Davies before Adelaide's pick 8 it pushes it to 13. All those scenarios leave Port off ok with the current picks they have. But if Adelaide get 1 and Crouch compo gives them 2 they might bid on Jones with that and that leaves us with a large deficit for next year.

If 8 becomes 13 then 26 becomes 31 but lets say 35 allowing for 4 more compo picks at end of Rd 1. Some picks before 26 could be eliminated depending on who uses them so 26 could become 25 or 27 not 35 but lets be conservative. Same with our other picks, let's be conservative with what picks are eliminated.

A bid at pick 8.. 1,551 pts - 20% discount = 1,241 pts
A bid at pick 10 1,395 pts - 20% discount = 1,116 pts
A bid at ick 13.. 1,212 pts - 20% discount = 970 pts

Pick 26 becomes 35...... 729 pts becomes 522 pts
Pick 31 becomes pick 40 606 pts becomes 429 pts
Pick 39 becomes pick 48 446 pts becomes 302 pts

In the above scenario we need 371 less pts moving from matching a bit at 13 compared to 8 but our picks being pushed back we have lost 528 pts for a net loss of 157 pts.

But it could be less than that depending on how many bids are made and how many picks are eliminated using those bids.

Where is the sweat spot?? Its hard to say when 15 matching player bids are likely to be made, 5 or 6 compo picks added and maybe 30 picks are eliminated in the process of making matching bids.

Having to match a bid between 2 and 5 involves pain carried forward to next year's first round pick. 6 and 7 less so, but still pain. Having to match a bid at 8 or later is fine.

If the crows bid on him at pick 1 its just being vindictive to Port. He isn't the best player in the draft. Logan McDonald is the best player I've seen and he's rated top 3 but I watched 3 games of him play for Perth.
Click to expand...

id let him go at pick 1.
especially if crows dont have pick 2.
what a shit show that would become for them
 
RussellEbertHandball said:
Around pick 10 is ok, pick 8 means we might have to go into small deficit if Schofield gets taken between 28-32.

If someone bids on UGH and Campbell before's Adelaide's current second pick at 8, then 8 becomes 10. They would bid on Jones with that IMO.

If Essendon get a first round compo pick for Daniher that pushes it to 11. If Adelaide get pick 2 for Crouch compo that pushes it to 12. If someone also bids on somebody else like Davies before Adelaide's pick 8 it pushes it to 13. All those scenarios leave Port off ok with the current picks they have. But if Adelaide get 1 and Crouch compo gives them 2 they might bid on Jones with that and that leaves us with a large deficit for next year.

If 8 becomes 13 then 26 becomes 31 but lets say 35 allowing for 4 more compo picks at end of Rd 1. Some picks before 26 could be eliminated depending on who uses them so 26 could become 25 or 27 not 35 but lets be conservative. Same with our other picks, let's be conservative with what picks are eliminated.

A bid at pick 8.. 1,551 pts - 20% discount = 1,241 pts
A bid at pick 10 1,395 pts - 20% discount = 1,116 pts
A bid at ick 13.. 1,212 pts - 20% discount = 970 pts

Pick 26 becomes 35...... 729 pts becomes 522 pts
Pick 31 becomes pick 40 606 pts becomes 429 pts
Pick 39 becomes pick 48 446 pts becomes 302 pts

In the above scenario we need 371 less pts moving from matching a bit at 13 compared to 8 but our picks being pushed back we have lost 528 pts for a net loss of 157 pts.

But it could be less than that depending on how many bids are made and how many picks are eliminated using those bids.

Where is the sweat spot?? Its hard to say when 15 matching player bids are likely to be made, 5 or 6 compo picks added and maybe 30 picks are eliminated in the process of making matching bids, given we will bid on Schofield and he seems to have a wide range of where he could go.

Having to match a bid between 2 and 5 involves pain carried forward to next year's first round pick. 6 and 7 less so, but still pain. Having to match a bid at 8 or later is fine.

If the crows bid on him at pick 1 its just being vindictive to Port. He isn't the best player in the draft. Logan McDonald is the best player I've seen and he's rated top 3 but I watched 3 games of him play for Perth.
Click to expand...

Surely they Bid #1 for JUH then McDonald, Hollands at #3. They would likely bid early on Jones in spite of us. If I was the Crows recruiting team I would be sliding to the Doggies and offering them their two second rounders for #13 with an agreement they don’t bid the first few picks on JUH.

Surely for the first time in their existence they stop trying to screw the mob on the other side of the Cemetery and do what is best for themselves?
 

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Adz2332 said:
id let him go at pick 1.
especially if crows dont have pick 2.
what a sh*t show that would become for them
Click to expand...
*Could

Which career would you prefer, Marc Murphy, Dale Thomas or Shannon Hurn’s?
 
I
Adz2332 said:
id let him go at pick 1.
especially if crows dont have pick 2.
what a sh*t show that would become for them
Click to expand...
f they bid on him that high it is only to stuff us up and would be weird. I mean I know they envy us and all that...anyway pick 1 or 2 in a draft for us this year mighty good effort after our finish ranking 😂🤣😂
 
RangaInTeal said:
Surely they Bid #1 for JUH then McDonald, Hollands at #3. They would likely bid early on Jones in spite of us. If I was the Crows recruiting team I would be sliding to the Doggies and offering them their two second rounders for #13 with an agreement they don’t bid the first few picks on JUH.

Surely for the first time in their existence they stop trying to screw the mob on the other side of the Cemetery and do what is best for themselves?
Click to expand...

Unfortunately for us, to the crows do what is best for themselves = screw the mob on the other side of the Cemetery.

Even so I would be surprised if they bid on Jones with #1. Of course if it was any other club, I would be astonished.
 
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RangaInTeal said:
*Could

Which career would you prefer, Marc Murphy, Dale Thomas or Shannon Hurn’s?
Click to expand...

Hurn is an unrealistic comparison for jones. You might as well compare every midfielder to Judd. Jones is a thumping kick with average to below average touch. Hurn was the best kick in juniors I’ve ever seen.

I love jones but comparisons to Hurn are fairly misleading other than as remotely similar positions and both being stocky well built kids.
 
Ford Fairlane said:
Unfortunately for us, to the crows do what is best for themselves = screw the mob on the other side of the Cemetery.

Even so I would be surprised if they bid on Jones with #1. Of course if it was any other club, I would be astonished.
Click to expand...
Probably why they are after pick two as well.
Bid on Jones at 1.
If we don’t match and they get him they still have pick 2 to get who they are really after as well as stuffing us up for Jones.
 
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Alright alright alright.

The crows aren’t taking Jones or JUH with pick one - it would be mental. And if they did, the doggies or Port match and take the huge media boon it would be.

I also can’t see the Crows bidding with pick 8. There are better players and giving Port the kudos of saying we took the player they wanted, would be too much. After pick 12 that becomes a bit easier to see.

Jones has great exposed form, Perhaps only behind DGB, MacDonald and Thiltrophe in this regard. But he is a half back flanker tied to a club. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he slide out to 15-20. If you’re every other club why put much work into him? Why bother bidding? You know Port will match it and have geared up to do that. Same with JUH, wouldn’t surprise me if most clubs haven’t even interviewed him.

Who do people think we might target in that 30-50 range? Small forwards seem to be reliably found later in the draft, so maybe a quick, smaller type?
 

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Long live PAFC said:
Alright alright alright.

The crows aren’t taking Jones or JUH with pick one - it would be mental. And if they did, the doggies or Port match and take the huge media boon it would be.

I also can’t see the Crows bidding with pick 8. There are better players and giving Port the kudos of saying we took the player they wanted, would be too much. After pick 12 that becomes a bit easier to see.

Jones has great exposed form, Perhaps only behind DGB, MacDonald and Thiltrophe in this regard. But he is a half back flanker tied to a club. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he slide out to 15-20. If you’re every other club why put much work into him? Why bother bidding? You know Port will match it and have geared up to do that. Same with JUH, wouldn’t surprise me if most clubs haven’t even interviewed him.

Who do people think we might target in that 30-50 range? Small forwards seem to be reliably found later in the draft, so maybe a quick, smaller type?
Click to expand...

Someone like Pheonix Spicer would be ok. Maybe Corey Durdin. A sliding CHB would be nice.
 
Long live PAFC said:
But he is a half back flanker tied to a club. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he slide out to 15-20. If you’re every other club why put much work into him? Why bother bidding? You know Port will match it and have geared up to do that. Same with JUH, wouldn’t surprise me if most clubs haven’t even interviewed him.
Click to expand...
Clubs bid because they think the player is worth the pick they are bidding with. The other club pays the cost. If we had pick #1 and thought JUH was the best prospect I'd want us to bid. Clubs shouldn't be getting linked players on the cheap.

It only becomes annoying when clubs bid early to be dicks and try and force the other clubs hand. Sure you may 'win' there and force them, but you either have that other club waiting to get to do the same to you, or your bid doesn't get matched and you over pay for a player. No surprises, if you were a betting person, that Adelaide would lead the market for a club likely to bid early to be a dick. Or worse, do like they did previously and arrange for another club to bid as a quid pro quo, just to undercut us.
 
Start your recalculations ladies and gentleman - the Atkins end or Rd 2 compo pick for the crows just handed down means our picks 39, 51 and 53 become 40, 52 and 54. Our potential later picks after 73 ie no pts, also gets pushed back.
 
I'm gonna try and track how compo picks change Port's picks. 2 compo picks awarded today, Ratkins end of 2nd round and Isaac Smith 3rd round have changed Port's picks as follows and points lost.


1604035412451.png
 
Andre said:
Clubs bid because they think the player is worth the pick they are bidding with. The other club pays the cost. If we had pick #1 and thought JUH was the best prospect I'd want us to bid. Clubs shouldn't be getting linked players on the cheap.

It only becomes annoying when clubs bid early to be dicks and try and force the other clubs hand. Sure you may 'win' there and force them, but you either have that other club waiting to get to do the same to you, or your bid doesn't get matched and you over pay for a player. No surprises, if you were a betting person, that Adelaide would lead the market for a club likely to bid early to be a dick. Or worse, do like they did previously and arrange for another club to bid as a quid pro quo, just to undercut us.
Click to expand...

The history of the draft doesn’t support this. Clubs should pick players were they are worth but the reality of these academy and F/S players is that they go later than they should/expected. A part of this is that clubs don’t put the effort in, because the player is linked to another club so why bother.

If you’re another club, would you be putting lots of time into assessing Lachie Jones? Your resources are limited, he is a HBF, he has had a cracker season and Port have traded into a position to be able to take him regardless of where a bid comes.
So when they make their list of players, where does Lachie fall? As a top 10-12 pick as he is worth or later because you haven’t put the time and effort into him? Now it may be different this year as he has a lot of exposed form compared to others, but take a look at past academy and F/S’s, they regularly go later than they should.

I don’t think clubs try and be dicks either, it’s not a smart policy and one that would come back to bite you.
The crows would have great intel on Jones but know they won’t get him. So is the small hit on making Port pay more points worth it compared with the one up port gets in taking a player that the crows want?
 

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List Mgmt. 2020 Draft Mega Thread - picks 35, 47, 57, 59, 73, 95

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