List Mgmt. 2020 Draft Mega Thread - picks 35, 47, 57, 59, 73, 95

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rumoursofwinter said:
I hope we draft some vic kids late in the draft and rookie draft. Its a great chance to draft with your instinct and homework without exposed form. I'd love for port to jag a hidden gem late in the draft. It would make a good story.
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Depending on the list sizes, which are to be finalised this draft should be more focused on rookie picks. Opportunity to see how those players develop and if they do not look promising we can cut them after a year. Nect years draft looks far stronger. Jones and perhaps Taj should be picked up in the ND and all other selections we make should be rookie selections IMO.
 
gbear said:
Depending on the list sizes, which are to be finalised this draft should be more focused on rookie picks. Opportunity to see how those players develop and if they do not look promising we can cut them after a year. Nect years draft looks far stronger. Jones and perhaps Taj should be picked up in the ND and all other selections we make should be rookie selections IMO.
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I agree unless its a case of "We could believe a top 30 pick was there at pick 67" etc.
 
Ford Fairlane said:
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So if Rendell is right, pick 26 could effectively be pick 40 after matching bids are made, if we trade it out.

Let's say Essendon accept 26 and something minor for Fantasia which looks like we are going to go after and Aliir is probably too hard to get this year.

If Jones is taken at pick 10, there might be 2 or 3 matching bids before him so pick 26 would effectively be 28 or 29 if we hang on to it.

It begs the question, trade out 26 for Fantasia, then what players have to be traded out or picks swapped to get back the effective points to replace pick 26?? Do we trade out 2021 picks for a draft that is rated stronger than this year to get picks and therefore points this year?

Pick 31 and 39 if we hold on to them, become picks 33/34 and 41/42 if we have to bid on Jones at 10 and only 2 or 3 matching bids have happened at this stage (ie Ugle-Hagen, Campbell, Davies). So lets say its pick 34+42 = 542+395pts = 937pts. Pick 10 is 1395 pts less 20% discount = 1,116 pts. That's a deficit of 179 pts.

Our pick 51 becomes 53/54 in this scenario. Lets say its 54, then we have to use that on Jones, its 220 pts so a surplus of 41 pts which generates pick 70.

Pick 53 becomes pick 55/56 in this scenario so pick 56 is worth 194 pts. That's 41+194 pts = 235 pts

Schofield might not actually be bid on until pick 40-45-50 range allowing for prior matching bids. We could be able to cover that with what we have.

If Schofield is bid at pick 40 then 429 pts - 197 pt discount = 232 pts which means we just have enough points to cover it and not have a carry forward deficit. However who knows how many bids are made by pick 40 and how far back pick 53 which becomes 56 after the Jones bid really becomes. Does it become pick 70??

So unless we traded out next years pick(s) and player(s) we will probably only draft Jones and Schofield.
 
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RussellEbertHandball said:
So if Rendell is right, pick 26 could effectively be pick 40 after matching bids are made, if we trade it out.

Let's say Essendon accept 26 and something minor for Fantasia which looks like we are going to go after and Aliir is probably too hard to get this year.

If Jones is taken at pick 10, there might be 2 or 3 matching bids before him so pick 26 would effectively be 28 or 29 if we hang on to it.

It begs the question, trade out 26 for Fantasia, then what players have to be traded out or picks swapped to get back the effective points to replace pick 26?? Do we trade out 2021 picks for a draft that is rated stronger than this year to get picks and therefore points this year?

Pick 31 and 39 if we hold on to them, become picks 33/34 and 41/42 if we have to bid on Jones at 10 and only 2 or 3 matching bids have happened at this stage (ie Ugle-Hagen, Campbell, Davies). So lets say its pick 34+42 = 542+395pts = 937pts. Pick 10 is 1395 pts less 20% discount = 1,116 pts. That's a deficit of 179 pts.

Our pick 51 becomes 53/54 in this scenario. Lets say its 54, then we have to use that on Jones, its 220 pts so a surplus of 41 pts which generates pick 70.

Pick 53 becomes pick 55/56 in this scenario so pick 56 is worth 194 pts. That's 41+194 pts = 235 pts

Schofield might not actually be bid on until pick 40-45-50 range allowing for prior matching bids. We could be able to cover that with what we have.

If Schofield is bid at pick 40 then 429 pts - 197 pt discount = 232 pts which means we just have enough points to cover it and not have a carry forward deficit. However who knows how many bids are made by pick 40 and how far back pick 53 which becomes 56 after the Jones bid really becomes. Does it become pick 70??

So unless we traded out next years pick(s) and player(s) we will probably only draft Jones and Schofield.
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still think we have to take 3.. so yes jones schofield and a roughy at 70s. plus then we can go to the rookie draft to not have to pay 2 years on there contract.

so with 26 going out, we still have enough to match for those 2.
26 is a free swing. its why im not to concerned if it goes for fantasia.

if we bring in fantasia, jones, schofield and a roughy who cares what we spend n where in this years picks for them?
although bonner out and aliir in would be a bonus
 
Adz2332 said:
still think we have to take 3.. so yes jones schofield and a roughy at 70s. plus then we can go to the rookie draft to not have to pay 2 years on there contract.

so with 26 going out, we still have enough to match for those 2.
26 is a free swing. its why im not to concerned if it goes for fantasia.

if we bring in fantasia, jones, schofield and a roughy who cares what we spend n where in this years picks for them?
although bonner out and aliir in would be a bonus
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Do you mean 3 by AFL rules or 3 is your preference? If Woodcock was upgraded to the main list then the rules say we only have to select 2 - unless the rules have changed again the last couple of years since I last read them.
 
RussellEbertHandball said:
So if Rendell is right, pick 26 could effectively be pick 40 after matching bids are made, if we trade it out.

Let's say Essendon accept 26 and something minor for Fantasia which looks like we are going to go after and Aliir is probably too hard to get this year.

If Jones is taken at pick 10, there might be 2 or 3 matching bids before him so pick 26 would effectively be 28 or 29 if we hang on to it.

It begs the question, trade out 26 for Fantasia, then what players have to be traded out or picks swapped to get back the effective points to replace pick 26?? Do we trade out 2021 picks for a draft that is rated stronger than this year to get picks and therefore points this year?

Pick 31 and 39 if we hold on to them, become picks 33/34 and 41/42 if we have to bid on Jones at 10 and only 2 or 3 matching bids have happened at this stage (ie Ugle-Hagen, Campbell, Davies). So lets say its pick 34+42 = 542+395pts = 937pts. Pick 10 is 1395 pts less 20% discount = 1,116 pts. That's a deficit of 179 pts.

Our pick 51 becomes 53/54 in this scenario. Lets say its 54, then we have to use that on Jones, its 220 pts so a surplus of 41 pts which generates pick 70.

Pick 53 becomes pick 55/56 in this scenario so pick 56 is worth 194 pts. That's 41+194 pts = 235 pts

Schofield might not actually be bid on until pick 40-45-50 range allowing for prior matching bids. We could be able to cover that with what we have.

If Schofield is bid at pick 40 then 429 pts - 197 pt discount = 232 pts which means we just have enough points to cover it and not have a carry forward deficit. However who knows how many bids are made by pick 40 and how far back pick 53 which becomes 56 after the Jones bid really becomes. Does it become pick 70??

So unless we traded out next years pick(s) and player(s) we will probably only draft Jones and Schofield.
Click to expand...
If as expected Ugle-Hagen and Campbell receive bids before Jones some of those later picks will move forward not backwards as the Dogs and Swans pay with multiple picks in an similar range to ours.

The kicker will be the free agency compensation picks for Cameron, Williams, Crouch, Corr and Daniher.
 
The calculations on this make my head spin.

So pick 26 is likely to slide back making it worth less (and each place it slides is worth more than later picks)

But if we trade it for later picks or a player and a later pick, then that pick is likely to slide even more (though each place it slides is of less value).

So are we better off looking for later picks with more points or trying to keep our earlier picks this year?
 
It Just Is said:
If as expected Ugle-Hagen and Campbell receive bids before Jones some of those later picks will move forward not backwards as the Dogs and Swans pay with multiple picks in an similar range to ours.

The kicker will be the free agency compensation picks for Cameron, Williams, Crouch, Corr and Daniher.
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Yeah I tried to keep it as simple as possible and look at worst case scenario rather than all scenarios.

Bottom line is there is enough incentive to trade 26 or 31 out, but not both, and still have enough pts to go after Jones and Schofield and if need be, carry forward a smallish deficit to 2021.

The interesting thing is if clubs want to trade for our pick 26 and think it could turn into 40, and still want to do a trade.
 
RussellEbertHandball said:
Yeah I tried to keep it as simple as possible and look at worst case scenario rather than all scenarios.

Bottom line is there is enough incentive to trade 26 or 31 out, but not both, and still have enough pts to go after Jones and Schofield and if need be, carry forward a smallish deficit to 2021.

The interesting thing is if clubs want to trade for our pick 26 and think it could turn into 40, and still want to do a trade.
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And it would be worth more tome someone like the Bulldogs or Sydney who want to use it to match a high bid (where it may be still around 26) rather than a team who actually wants to use it (by which time it may have slid to 40).
 
Enviable Tradition said:
And it would be worth more tome someone like the Bulldogs or Sydney who want to use it to match a high bid (where it may be still around 26) rather than a team who actually wants to use it (by which time it may have slid to 40).
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Last year trying to explain draft pick trades with Freo and Brisbane to GremioPower, I did a calculation which showed clubs are prepared to do pick swaps and give up a difference in pts equal to the discount they will receive to for an NGA or F-S pick. See link below.

This year all 3 clubs want use picks for bids so it becomes even more complicated than last year,because Freo trade was about making their 2019 position better and Port were looking to make their 2020 draft position better.

Game Day - 2019 National Draft

However, it was the SECOND trade. This was the first one: TRADE ALERT Port Adelaide receive pick No.66 and Fremantle's second-round selection next year while Fremantle has received picks No.52 and 55. Can someone explain me the reason behind it? I am really struggling to understand. This trade...
www.bigfooty.com www.bigfooty.com
 
Enviable Tradition said:
The calculations on this make my head spin.

So pick 26 is likely to slide back making it worth less (and each place it slides is worth more than later picks)
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Yes. If Ugle-Hagen and Campbell are bid on by the Bulldogs and Sydney you have to add in a slot for those 2 unless they use a pick they have before 26. As It Just Is wrote there will probably be 5 free agency compo picks slotted in before pick 26 ie likely to be 1st round or end of 1st round compo for Cameron, Williams, Crouch, Corr and Daniher

But if we trade it for later picks or a player and a later pick, then that pick is likely to slide even more (though each place it slides is of less value).
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Yes but it also depends how many picks are eliminated when bids are made and where those eliminated picks are relative to Port's picks.

So are we better off looking for later picks with more points or trying to keep our earlier picks this year?
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Depends how much we want to do a trade and if are prepared to match a bid for Jones if it was say 3-5 range rather than 8-12 range and/or if Schofield we had to match a bid at 25 rather than 40.
 
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It Just Is said:
The kicker will be the free agency compensation picks for Cameron, Williams, Crouch, Corr and Daniher.
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This is always the odd thing. The AFL invents compensation picks out of thin air for established players yet clubs have to point match to take father/son or academy selections.

I guess the obvious difference is that the kids are bid on by rival clubs so a value is established ..... but if the afl used the same player valuation method - applied a discount and then forced clubs to use points to offset what the club losing the player was compensated with - you wouldn’t see all these picks created out of free air.
 

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Janus said:
I’m going to say this again - Port Adelaide is not going to use late picks on a poor draft. You are locking yourself into keeping kids on your list for two years due to the standard two year contract while you are forced to get rid of players you might actually rate.

It’s why we only gave Lienert and Woodcock one year deals. You need the flexibility with contracts.

Start thinking less about us being a basket case, where we were drafting five players at the back end of the draft because we were delisting so many players, and start thinking like a premiership contender where our list is actually around the mark to win a flag.
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Not necessarily disagreeing with you but that's what we thought in 2017 and we ended up pulling Kane Farrell, Joel Garner, Jake Patmore and Dom Barry from picks 50 - 61
 
RussellEbertHandball said:
The interesting thing is if clubs want to trade for our pick 26 and think it could turn into 40, and still want to do a trade.
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I’ll be really interested to see how many free agency compensation picks are awarded inside 26 because that’s the quickest way for our 26 to drop out.

The tricky think to calculate is the impact of bid matching as clubs often need to use multiple picks to match bids on better quality players.
 
Malibu#27 said:
I’ll be really interested to see how many free agency compensation picks are awarded inside 26 because that’s the quickest way for our 26 to drop out.

The tricky think to calculate is the impact of bid matching as clubs often need to use multiple picks to match bids on better quality players.
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It also depends on how many of the picks used to match are inside 26 and whether the clubs with those picks trade them out for multiple picks after 26.

It's a minefield to keep on top of

On SM-G960F using
BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Enviable Tradition said:
It also depends on how many of the picks used to match are inside 26 and whether the clubs with those picks trade them out for multiple picks after 26.

It's a minefield to keep on top of

On SM-G960F using
BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...


Absolutely it is ....... and its hard tomodel because every pick trade prior to and on draft night has flow on effects, as do all of the free agency compo picks.
 
I’d like to do a pick swap once we have to match a bid for jones. If there’s still a kpd still on the board we like, see if whoever the next picks are would do a pick swap for our future 1st rounder
That pick would prob be used up for Burgoyne anyway and we might get a kpd jones and Schofield that’s be a big win and would give us 8 1st rounders in 3 years
 
TheFVK said:
Not necessarily disagreeing with you but that's what we thought in 2017 and we ended up pulling Kane Farrell, Joel Garner, Jake Patmore and Dom Barry from picks 50 - 61
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That’s because we traded Impey, Ah Chee, Young, Lobbe and Austin and delisted Krakouer, White, Palmer and Eddy. And we needed to trade those players to get some of the collateral that was used in the 2018 trade period.

We’re not allowed to stockpile picks beyond our list vacancies, and we are required to make three list changes every year. We’ll do something funky with the rookie list to open up some spots but at the end of the day we’d be cutting into players we actually want to keep.

I’m saying we will trade for players this year and will be looking to take only two live picks into the draft, using them to match a bid for Jones and then hoping that Schofield isn’t bid on before 56 (the AFL creates a pick at the end of the draft if we have a spot on our list that needs to be filled).

It’s why I don’t care what we give up for Fantasia or Aliir - as long as we end up with two picks that we can use on Jones, we’re sweet.
 
Janus said:
That’s because we traded Impey, Ah Chee, Young, Lobbe and Austin and delisted Krakouer, White, Palmer and Eddy. And we needed to trade those players to get some of the collateral that was used in the 2018 trade period.

We’re not allowed to stockpile picks beyond our list vacancies, and we are required to make three list changes every year. We’ll do something funky with the rookie list to open up some spots but at the end of the day we’d be cutting into players we actually want to keep.

I’m saying we will trade for players this year and will be looking to take only two live picks into the draft, using them to match a bid for Jones and then hoping that Schofield isn’t bid on before 56 (the AFL creates a pick at the end of the draft if we have a spot on our list that needs to be filled).

It’s why I don’t care what we give up for Fantasia or Aliir - as long as we end up with two picks that we can use on Jones, we’re sweet.
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Yes, but we're still a week out from trade week and we don't know what CD (or our players) have planned; just look at the curve balls we've been thrown the last few years. We can guess but we don't know what our list vacancies will be yet.

I'm intrigued to know what picks 30+ look like, it's going to be a real crapshoot with the underexposed Victorians. Irrespective of the strength of the draft there's arguments to both stay away (lack of information) or go hard (more diamonds in the rough).

We do seem to like identifying players a few seasons out so perhaps this year's hiatus isn't necessarily going to impact our selections..
 
TheFVK said:
Yes, but we're still a week out from trade week and we don't know what CD (or our players) have planned; just look at the curve balls we've been thrown the last few years. We can guess but we don't know what our list vacancies will be yet.

I'm intrigued to know what picks 30+ look like, it's going to be a real crapshoot with the underexposed Victorians. Irrespective of the strength of the draft there's arguments to both stay away (lack of information) or go hard (more diamonds in the rough).

We do seem to like identifying players a few seasons out so perhaps this year's hiatus isn't necessarily going to impact our selections..
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The positive we seem to have about drafting is we like the look of kids in the under agers. we seem to do a lot of homework on the younger ones, like MG. so hopefully not having a vic comp this year we already had done plenty of scouting on a few. and a few may slide
 
THIRTY Victorian prospects will test at their state NAB AFL Draft Combine this Saturday in a fillip for the draft hopefuls after having their under-18 season wiped out.

The Vic Metro Combine will take place at the Holden Centre on Saturday with the players split into four groups across the day.

www.afl.com.au

Potential No.1 pick, famous name set to test in Vic Metro Draft Combine

There will be 30 draft hopefuls testing at the Holden Centre on Saturday
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au
 
RussellEbertHandball said:
Yes. If Ugle-Hagen and Campbell are bid on by the Bulldogs and Sydney you have to add in a slot for those 2 unless they use a pick they have before 26. As It Just Is wrote there will probably be 5 free agency compo picks slotted in before pick 26 ie likely to be 1st round or end of 1st round compo for Cameron, Williams, Crouch, Corr and Daniher


Yes but it also depends how many picks are eliminated when bids are made and where those eliminated picks are relative to Port's picks.


Depends how much we want to do a trade and if are prepared to match a bid for Jones if it was say 3-5 range rather than 8-12 range and/or if Schofield we had to match a bid at 25 rather than 40.
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So where is the sweet spot for a Jones bid holding the selections we currently have? Are we better off Adelaide bidding early or with pick 8 if Campbell and JUH are bid on in the first 4 selections?
 
RangaInTeal said:
So where is the sweet spot for a Jones bid holding the selections we currently have? Are we better off Adelaide bidding early or with pick 8 if Campbell and JUH are bid on in the first 4 selections?
Click to expand...

The more compo picks and bids that come in before Adelaide's pick 8 the better as far as we are concerned.

The later that pick gets the less we have to pay for Jones if we match.
 

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List Mgmt. 2020 Draft Mega Thread - picks 35, 47, 57, 59, 73, 95

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