Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

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KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​


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Personally, I think we should trade 1 AND 9 down.

Trade 9 and 22 to GWS for 13, 15 and 29

Then trade 1, 29 and 40 for 3, 60 and Sydney's 2021 1st.

Pick at 3, 13, 15 and 23 this year, and have two top tens and two 2nds next year.

That's four or five good young players each year, added to the youth we have and the experience we're keeping.

Then, after 2021, we'd have recently removed the salary all of Jenkins, Betts, Gibbs, Walker, Brad Crouch, Lynch, Talia (perhaps re-signed for less) and Seedsman. There could be $4.5m plus there.

That should mean at least two to three players via free agency and trading, even accounting for signing extensions on younger players.
 
Mego Red said:
Agreed.

Bigfooty has become this echo chamber on Thilthorpe.

He was comfortably top three coming into this year, and had shown more over a longer period that McDonald. Presumably the recruiters are considering more than McDonald's five good games this year.

I'm not going to say I know who the ideal person to select is, but it would be crazy to dismiss Thilthorpe, based on assuming he would do more as a tall in a terrible sebior side this year.
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I think the reason behind it is that McDonald’s improvement was massive this year, while Tillthorpe plateaued a bit. To be fair that was probably largely to do with groin problems, but that opens up another issue. Also everything I read last year had Thillthorpe projected at about 5-8 behind these Vic midfield types anyway, so I think the talk around him at our pick has come because he is South Australian in a year that we hold pick 1, not because he is genuinely rated there. Hearing David King saying that The Bulldogs should trade Dunkley, then trade up to 2 where they can get the “generational” forward in McDonald, simply because he assumes we will take the safe option of selecting the local boy, really grinds my gears.

personally, despite a nagging gut feel that maybe he dominated at junior levels because of amazing physical gifts at 15 and 16, I don’t want us to draft him at pick 1 purely because he projects so similarly to Himmelberg, who impressed me hugely this year. I am totally sold on Hollands, unless the recruiting guys are Convinced that McDonald is Riewoldt waiting to happen, where I think we would be crazy not to take him, so I think it has to be one of those two.
 

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Mego Red said:
Personally, I think we should trade 1 AND 9 down.

Trade 9 and 22 to GWS for 13, 15 and 29

Then trade 1, 29 and 40 for 3, 60 and Sydney's 2021 1st.

Pick at 3, 13, 15 and 23 this year, and have two top tens and two 2nds next year.

That's four or five good young players each year, added to the youth we have and the experience we're keeping.

Then, after 2021, we'd have recently removed the salary all of Jenkins, Betts, Gibbs, Walker, Brad Crouch, Lynch, Talia (perhaps re-signed for less) and Seedsman. There could be $4.5m plus there.

That should mean at least two to three players via free agency and trading, even accounting for signing extensions on younger players.
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Hard to argue with anything there, could probably do those trades (except GWS don’t love us at the moment😂). the only problem with any of these proposals though is that it depends on our talent evaluation, which we are all basing on our personal views. If the club sees McDonald and Hollands as the caliber of Judd and Franklin, then we would be crazy to drop below 2, no matter what we got. I think the next 2 weeks will be interesting as the true rankings will start to solidify more, as media concentrates more on the kids than on the trading.
 
Mutineer said:
What the hell are you on about Shorty?

Hollands is universally considered in the top 3 in this draft and most would probably have him as the stand out No.1 if it wasn't for the ACL and the fact is his rehab has gone without so much as a hitch and he's already back running. That's not bias he is pure and simple a class prospect and I've been fortunate enough to see it in the flesh several times.
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Ok mate.

Not gonna argue with you, you'll get too defensive
 
Hodgy said:
I think the reason behind it is that McDonald’s improvement was massive this year, while Tillthorpe plateaued a bit. To be fair that was probably largely to do with groin problems, but that opens up another issue. Also everything I read last year had Thillthorpe projected at about 5-8 behind these Vic midfield types anyway, so I think the talk around him at our pick has come because he is South Australian in a year that we hold pick 1, not because he is genuinely rated there. Hearing David King saying that The Bulldogs should trade Dunkley, then trade up to 2 where they can get the “generational” forward in McDonald, simply because he assumes we will take the safe option of selecting the local boy, really grinds my gears.

personally, despite a nagging gut feel that maybe he dominated at junior levels because of amazing physical gifts at 15 and 16, I don’t want us to draft him at pick 1 purely because he projects so similarly to Himmelberg, who impressed me hugely this year. I am totally sold on Hollands, unless the recruiting guys are Convinced that McDonald is Riewoldt waiting to happen, where I think we would be crazy not to take him, so I think it has to be one of those two.
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Also have to be careful with McDonald, he played 3 or 4 great games in a half-assed WAFL league this year. Not saying he's not good, but I think the term "generational forward" is used way too liberally.

Kinda like the buzzword that is..... Elite.
 
Mego Red said:
Personally, I think we should trade 1 AND 9 down.

Trade 9 and 22 to GWS for 13, 15 and 29

Then trade 1, 29 and 40 for 3, 60 and Sydney's 2021 1st.

Pick at 3, 13, 15 and 23 this year, and have two top tens and two 2nds next year.

That's four or five good young players each year, added to the youth we have and the experience we're keeping.

Then, after 2021, we'd have recently removed the salary all of Jenkins, Betts, Gibbs, Walker, Brad Crouch, Lynch, Talia (perhaps re-signed for less) and Seedsman. There could be $4.5m plus there.

That should mean at least two to three players via free agency and trading, even accounting for signing extensions on younger players.
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Agreed. Unfortunately the club won’t have the stones to trade Pick 1.
 
Hodgy said:
I think the reason behind it is that McDonald’s improvement was massive this year, while Tillthorpe plateaued a bit. To be fair that was probably largely to do with groin problems, but that opens up another issue. Also everything I read last year had Thillthorpe projected at about 5-8 behind these Vic midfield types anyway, so I think the talk around him at our pick has come because he is South Australian in a year that we hold pick 1, not because he is genuinely rated there. Hearing David King saying that The Bulldogs should trade Dunkley, then trade up to 2 where they can get the “generational” forward in McDonald, simply because he assumes we will take the safe option of selecting the local boy, really grinds my gears.

personally, despite a nagging gut feel that maybe he dominated at junior levels because of amazing physical gifts at 15 and 16, I don’t want us to draft him at pick 1 purely because he projects so similarly to Himmelberg, who impressed me hugely this year. I am totally sold on Hollands, unless the recruiting guys are Convinced that McDonald is Riewoldt waiting to happen, where I think we would be crazy not to take him, so I think it has to be one of those two.
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Yeah, I don't hate any of this.

I'd be happy if we took McDonald. The going home thing worries me but we can't live with that fear.

The other option?

Get Sydney's pick 3 and future 1st for 1 and later picks. Then move that Sydney pick to GCS for 5.

Take 3 and 5 to the draft, which could genuinely be Thilthorpe and Hollands.
 
CROUCH #2 said:
What will the cascade effect be if we bid on Ugle Hagan then Campbell?
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Everyone else says, “boo that’s against the spirit of the game” or some such nonsense

We say, “EAD”

Remove every WB pick and most / all of the Sydney picks from the draft.
 
Fivel_79 said:
This is why is a no brainer for me to bid on JUH with Pick 1. He’s widely tipped as the best player in the draft and the AFL media types who whack the Crows at every opportunity (which lets be honest, seems like most of them) will be in a race to declare our number 1 selection as a flop. “I can’t believe the Crows selected “player” when they could have blah, blah, blah”. You could set your watch to it.

Logic suggests that McDonald is best placed to make an immediate impact but being from WA with West Coast’s track record of getting top WA talent home you’d want to be confident he’s not a flight risk.

Hollands (ACL) and Tilthorpe (developing tall) will probably take more time to make an impact at senior level... but would a hungry media/desperate fan base give them that time before they’re declared a miss?

I think for a number of reasons being a Pick 1 comes with pressure at the best of times but even with that, being selected as Crows number one pick will take it up a notch.

Interesting choice and interesting times ahead.
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Agreed. People are already lamenting the choice of McAsey. Can’t imagine what being a Pick 1 AND a developing KPP is going to do to a young players confidence, with the levels of patience we regularly see from the man-childs of this board


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
Hodgy said:
Hard to argue with anything there, could probably do those trades (except GWS don’t love us at the moment). the only problem with any of these proposals though is that it depends on our talent evaluation, which we are all basing on our personal views. If the club sees McDonald and Hollands as the caliber of Judd and Franklin, then we would be crazy to drop below 2, no matter what we got. I think the next 2 weeks will be interesting as the true rankings will start to solidify more, as media concentrates more on the kids than on the trading.
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If GWS didn't want to, Collingwood probably would. Their firsts are in an annoying spot, because you'd think there's a really good chance McInnes goes around 10 to 12.
 

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Mego Red said:
Yeah, I don't hate any of this.

I'd be happy if we took McDonald. The going home thing worries me but we can't live with that fear.

The other option?

Get Sydney's pick 3 and future 1st for 1 and later picks. Then move that Sydney pick to GCS for 5.

Take 3 and 5 to the draft, which could genuinely be Thilthorpe and Hollands.
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This is exactly what I think we should do. Turn 1 into 3 and 5 and then get either Holland’s and Tillthorpe or Holland’s and DGB (and move McAsey forward), then Macrae or Bruhn at 9 to address the pure mid need.
 
Johnny Rutten said:
In my mind, to pull off a huge draft win this year, we need to get another pick in the top-5. I don't think it's the be-all and end-all - 1,9,22,23 - is a very nice draft hand, but it would be nice.

I can't see Sydney or North budging on their picks, but is there any possibility these could happen...?

We give 9, 22, & 23 to Hawks (3,099 points) for 4 & 24 (2,819 points)

Or

We give 9, 22 & our 2021 R3 pick (approx 2,700 points) to Suns for 5 & 37 (2,361 points)

Something along these lines. More 2021 picks could be factored in.

We need to give overs, to either of these clubs, to have any chance. That's what Port did to move up (to get Rozee).

Note: Not interested in any of Essendon's picks, as the players we should be aiming for, will likely be gone by then.
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Suns already have too many players so don't need picks.

If I'm the Hawks, I wouldn't do that trade.

Suns "might" do 5, 2021/1 for 9, 2021/1, depending if they think they will jump up the ladder.
 
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Mego Red said:
Agreed.

Bigfooty has become this echo chamber on Thilthorpe.

He was comfortably top three coming into this year, and had shown more over a longer period that McDonald. Presumably the recruiters are considering more than McDonald's five good games this year.

I'm not going to say I know who the ideal person to select is, but it would be crazy to dismiss Thilthorpe, based on assuming he would do more as a tall in a terrible sebior side this year.
Click to expand...

I think the way people are associating any love for Thilthorpe purely because he is from SA is ridiculous. There's plenty to like. Thilthorpe was rated amongst the top few players in this draft last year, McDonald not in the top 20.

Hypothetically swap the players around. Say it was the SA kid who came from outside the predicted top 20 and played some good SANFL games and the WA kid always rated in the top few of this draft had Thilthorpe's year. Would people be feeling the same?
 
Mego Red said:
If GWS didn't want to, Collingwood probably would. Their firsts are in an annoying spot, because you'd think there's a really good chance McInnes goes around 10 to 12.
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Yeah, their trade period was astonishingly bad wasn’t it. To end up with 2 picks that are vulnerable to an NGA bid is worst case. Have to trade both back if a bid comes in, which loses them even more leverage.
 
Not that I expect you guys will know anymore than I know what the Swans plans are but who do you all think Adelaide will pick with pick 1?

I mean it is honestly quite confusing as I have heard different people all confidently say you are going to take Holland's with pick 1, take McDonald with pick 1 and taking Thilthorpe with pick 1.

I mean I personally don't think Thilthorpe is worth pick 1, and that you guys would be insane not to is pick 1 on Hollands or McDonald but then again several people who follow the draft closer than I do insist that Thilthorpe is a real chance at going pick 1.
 
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Who I think is the top ten best draftees.

NOTE = clubs listed next to the player is who I feel will get them & is not reflective to the draft order or pick trades that will happen.

1) Jamarra Ugle-Hagan – Western bulldogs

2) Braeden Campbell - Sydney

3) Elijah Hollands - Hawthorn

4) Logan McDonald - North Melbourne

5) Will Phillips – Essendon

6) Denver Grainger-Barras – Essendon

7) Riley Thilthope –Adelaide

8) Nathan O’Driscoll –Adelaide

9) Lachlan Jones – Port Adelaide

10) Finley Macrae –Fremantle

Top 5 Draft Smokey’s for us to get late

1) Zane Trew (underestimated inside bull of a mid)

2) Nik Cox (tall at either end)

3) Baily Laurie (x-factor - quick)

4) Jackson Callow (strong key forward, aggressive contested mark)

My honest prediction is if we decide to go for a McDonald or Thilthope & miss Hollands we will dry move up the draft to get Will Phillips. And I honestly believe Braeden Campbell is a number 1 candidate by quality & upside, even more than Hollands.
 
Peter Doherty said:
I think the way people are associating any love for Thilthorpe purely because he is from SA is ridiculous. There's plenty to like. Thilthorpe was rated amongst the top few players in this draft last year, McDonald not in the top 20.

Hypothetically swap the players around. Say it was the SA kid who came from outside the predicted top 20 and played some good SANFL games and the WA kid always rated in the top few of this draft had Thilthorpe's year. Would people be feeling the same?
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People look at trajectories, and McDonald has improved so much between 17 and 18 that his potential at 20 looks amazing, while Thilthorpe, as you say, was rated highly very early but hasn’t had anywhere near the same level of development this year, so people worry that what you see is what you are going to get. If you are talking about the 2 prospects based on their output right now, then they are very close, if you look at 3 years time then McDonald looks much higher.

BTW there is a difference between saying “playing some good SANFL games” and getting named as the key forward in the WAFL team of the year at 18.
 
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