Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

which mythological creature you think would win in a fight, Bigfoot or Santa?


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Nov 24, 2007
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KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​


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Who I think is the top ten best draftees.

NOTE = clubs listed next to the player is who I feel will get them & is not reflective to the draft order or pick trades that will happen.

1) Jamarra Ugle-Hagan – Western bulldogs

2) Braeden Campbell - Sydney

3) Elijah Hollands - Hawthorn

4) Logan McDonald - North Melbourne

5) Will Phillips – Essendon

6) Denver Grainger-Barras – Essendon

7) Riley Thilthope –Adelaide

8) Nathan O’Driscoll –Adelaide

9) Lachlan Jones – Port Adelaide

10) Finley Macrae –Fremantle

Top 5 Draft Smokey’s for us to get late

1) Zane Trew (underestimated inside bull of a mid)

2) Nik Cox (tall at either end)

3) Baily Laurie (x-factor - quick)

4) Jackson Callow (strong key forward, aggressive contested mark)

My honest prediction is if we decide to go for a McDonald or Thilthope & miss Hollands we will dry move up the draft to get Will Phillips. And I honestly believe Braeden Campbell is a number 1 candidate by quality & upside, even more than Hollands.
Braeden Campbell is interesting as you could be right about him. Regardless it is in Adelaides interest to have Sydney believe that we rate him that highly.
 
I wouldn't mind trading pick 1 and somehow trading up to 2 picks in the top 6-7. Not sure if that's a stretch.
 
Not that I expect you guys will know anymore than I know what the Swans plans are but who do you all think Adelaide will pick with pick 1?

I mean it is honestly quite confusing as I have heard different people all confidently say you are going to take Holland's with pick 1, take McDonald with pick 1 and taking Thilthorpe with pick 1.

I mean I personally don't think Thilthorpe is worth pick 1, and that you guys would be insane not to is pick 1 on Hollands or McDonald but then again several people who follow the draft closer than I do insist that Thilthorpe is a real chance at going pick 1.
I haven’t seen anything from our recruiting staff in the last few years that would suggest that we would take Tillthorpe purely because he is local, so I think we will take who we genuinely think is the best player. My guess is that would be Hollands or McDonald but there is no clear consensus.

Question in return, would you as a Sydney supporter be happy with trading 3 and future 1st for pick 1? Especially if you felt a bid for Campbell could come before 3.
 

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Confirmed by the Crows, we aren't trading pick 1, unless it's massive godfather deal which benefits the Crows greatly. Extremely unlikely, so no point looking at these options

You see it every year when clubs have the 1st round pick. There’s always wild trade scenarios that get suggested by the all clubs supporters, but they never get traded.

I just don’t see us trading it out unless a club really sees something ‘once in a generation’ from one of the players.

I look at all the clubs below us in the top 5 and all of them are going to get a quality player, I just don’t see the point in any of them trading them out, or up. I also don’t see a trade coming in early for any players, including Campbell


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I haven’t seen anything from our recruiting staff in the last few years that would suggest that we would take Tillthorpe purely because he is local, so I think we will take who we genuinely think is the best player. My guess is that would be Hollands or McDonald but there is no clear consensus.

Question in return, would you as a Sydney supporter be happy with trading 3 and future 1st for pick 1? Especially if you felt a bid for Campbell could come before 3.

I personally would not but then again Sydney love key forwards. We usually trade for them but if Sydney's recruiting staff rated McDonald high enough then it would not entirely surprise me if we made the play.
 
I haven’t seen anything from our recruiting staff in the last few years that would suggest that we would take Tillthorpe purely because he is local, so I think we will take who we genuinely think is the best player. My guess is that would be Hollands or McDonald but there is no clear consensus.

Question in return, would you as a Sydney supporter be happy with trading 3 and future 1st for pick 1? Especially if you felt a bid for Campbell could come before 3.


Personally, think that would be a bad move for swans.

Doubt a bid would come prior to our pick. If it did would mean McDonald and Hollands would be available. Would not mind if we passed in that situation
 
You see it every year when clubs have the 1st round pick. There’s always wild trade scenarios that get suggested by the all clubs supporters, but they never get traded.

I just don’t see us trading it out unless a club really sees something ‘once in a generation’ from one of the players.

I look at all the clubs below us in the top 5 and all of them are going to get a quality player, I just don’t see the point in any of them trading them out, or up. I also don’t see a trade coming in early for any players, including Campbell


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If Carlton had traded pick 1 in 2018 for say 3 and 6 from Gold Coast, which I believe GC tried to achieve, then they would have had Ben King and Isaac Rankine /Connor Rose instead of Walsh. Which would you prefer as a Carlton supporter?
 
Personally, think that would be a bad move for swans.

Doubt a bid would come prior to our pick. If it did would mean McDonald and Hollands would be available. Would not mind if we passed in that situation
Yeah, I suppose it would come down to McDonald and Campbell or McDonald and next years first. Tough call IMO.
 
Who I think is the top ten best draftees.

NOTE = clubs listed next to the player is who I feel will get them & is not reflective to the draft order or pick trades that will happen.

1) Jamarra Ugle-Hagan – Western bulldogs

2) Braeden Campbell - Sydney

3) Elijah Hollands - Hawthorn

4) Logan McDonald - North Melbourne

5) Will Phillips – Essendon

6) Denver Grainger-Barras – Essendon

7) Riley Thilthope –Adelaide

8) Nathan O’Driscoll –Adelaide

9) Lachlan Jones – Port Adelaide

10) Finley Macrae –Fremantle

Top 5 Draft Smokey’s for us to get late

1) Zane Trew (underestimated inside bull of a mid)

2) Nik Cox (tall at either end)

3) Baily Laurie (x-factor - quick)

4) Jackson Callow (strong key forward, aggressive contested mark)

My honest prediction is if we decide to go for a McDonald or Thilthope & miss Hollands we will dry move up the draft to get Will Phillips. And I honestly believe Braeden Campbell is a number 1 candidate by quality & upside, even more than Hollands.

I'd be interested to know if Sydney agreed with that. If they didn't, and we did, then he is 100% gettable. If Sydney agreed with that, and they were going to match no matter what, then either Sydney's pick 3 or their 2021 first are 100% gettable.

Any other combination of scenario and it doesn't really matter. I want us to bid on JUH, just out of spite. But wouldn't do that with Campbell unless we wanted him at 1, or wanted to force Sydney into a trade.
 
In my mind, to pull off a huge draft win this year, we need to get another pick in the top-5. I don't think it's the be-all and end-all - 1,9,22,23 - is a very nice draft hand, but it would be nice.

I can't see Sydney or North budging on their picks, but is there any possibility these could happen...?

We give 9, 22, & 23 to Hawks (3,099 points) for 4 & 24 (2,819 points)

Or

We give 9, 22 & our 2021 R3 pick (approx 2,700 points) to Suns for 5 & 37 (2,361 points)

Something along these lines. More 2021 picks could be factored in.

We need to give overs, to either of these clubs, to have any chance. That's what Port did to move up (to get Rozee).

Note: Not interested in any of Essendon's picks, as the players we should be aiming for, will likely be gone by then.
I don't think that's nearly enough for the Hawks trade. I've been looking at pick only trades over recent trade periods and in the 2018 Port/Freo trade, Port paid nearly 50% more in points as a premium to get Freo's 6, which was a measure of how desperate Port were.

port 11, 23, 30, 49 = 3060
for freo 6, 2019r3 (#45?) = 2098

I set Freo's 2019r3 at around pick 45 as what they might have thought it could be at the time of the trade.

We don't have any leverage over the Hawks and being a higher pick, we'd have to pay a whole lot more for pick 4 this year I reckon.


As Macca said, the GC trade is probably unlikely also. GC having loaded up with top end youth in recent years and having prelisting rights on Northern Oz kids, would only be interested in the best pick they can get, I would think so wouldn't be interested in downgrading unless they get ridiculous overs.
 
Braeden Campbell is interesting as you could be right about him. Regardless it is in Adelaides interest to have Sydney believe that we rate him that highly.

There is no way he is better than Holland's....

Same with Thilthorpe and McDonald. Why would we pick him I've McDonald.
 

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Personally, think that would be a bad move for swans.

Doubt a bid would come prior to our pick. If it did would mean McDonald and Hollands would be available. Would not mind if we passed in that situation
But Swans trading trading 3 and 2021 r1 for Crows 1 would allow you to get MacDonald and Campbell (though risks Gulden admittedly) at the cost of a pick in 2021 r1.
 
But Swans trading trading 3 and 2021 r1 for Crows 1 would allow you to get MacDonald and Campbell (though risks Gulden admittedly) at the cost of a pick in 2021 r1.

Have to remember though that it is very likely the Swans will finish bottom 4 next year too, which means McDonald would cost us pick 3 and pick 4. That is a steep price to pay for an unproven player, especially a player who plays in a position that is well known for it being difficult to get the pick right (been a lot of KPF failures drafted in the top 5)
 
Have to remember though that it is very likely the Swans will finish bottom 4 next year too, which means McDonald would cost us pick 3 and pick 4. That is a steep price to pay for an unproven player, especially a player who plays in a position that is well known for it being difficult to get the pick right (been a lot of KPF failures drafted in the top 5)
Agree it wouldn't be a smart move on the Swans part. Crows won't give up pick 1 unless Essendon come to us with pick 6,7, 8 for instance which they won't. The top 5 picks are all good this year. You guys will take DGB imo. Rampe needs help down back.
 
There is no way he is better than Holland's....

Same with Thilthorpe and McDonald. Why would we pick him I've McDonald.
I wouldn’t. However it’s just about leverage. If there is a way for Sydney to end up with McDonald and Campbell and we end up with Hollands and Sydney 2021 1st, then that could be a win for both clubs, and if Sydney believe we are considering Campbell then it is more likely to happen.

the massive problem with this is that we have recently seen how well Kelly bluffs.😂
 
Have to remember though that it is very likely the Swans will finish bottom 4 next year too, which means McDonald would cost us pick 3 and pick 4. That is a steep price to pay for an unproven player, especially a player who plays in a position that is well known for it being difficult to get the pick right (been a lot of KPF failures drafted in the top 5)
True ... but there are no known (at this stage) tall forwards looking like being elite next year so depends on how much Swans want one.
 
Have to remember though that it is very likely the Swans will finish bottom 4 next year too, which means McDonald would cost us pick 3 and pick 4. That is a steep price to pay for an unproven player, especially a player who plays in a position that is well known for it being difficult to get the pick right (been a lot of KPF failures drafted in the top 5)
In that scenario you are correct. If someone bids on Campbell early then it changes quite a bit.
 
I wouldn’t. However it’s just about leverage. If there is a way for Sydney to end up with McDonald and Campbell and we end up with Hollands and Sydney 2021 1st, then that could be a win for both clubs, and if Sydney believe we are considering Campbell then it is more likely to happen.

the massive problem with this is that we have recently seen how well Kelly bluffs.
Wow the Kelly Bluff narrative is getting some ridiculous mayo

Show me a club that hasn't been caught bluffing in recent years during trade period, its part of the trade period fabric and DNA

Every club does it, every club gets tripped up on it from time to time



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But Swans trading trading 3 and 2021 r1 for Crows 1 would allow you to get MacDonald and Campbell (though risks Gulden admittedly) at the cost of a pick in 2021 r1.

It guarantees that that would happen.

Is a small chance that could happen regardless. Is all fun and games. Would equally be happy with any top 5 prospect, Campbell and keep our first round 2021 pick.

Only really force our hand if we think that a bid will occur prior to our pick. 95% sure that it won't happen
 
In that scenario you are correct. If someone bids on Campbell early then it changes quite a bit.

It does. It is interesting as well.

If lets say Adelaide bid on Campbell with pick 2 (as you have already bid on JUH) then the Swans have a choice.

1. Trade pick 3 away, and match the bid. We lose pick 3 but we could gain a 2021 first rounder from someone. Though not sure if trading picks can happen after a bid has been put in place.
2. Match the bid, Swans lose pick 4, but we get an upgrade on pick 31. This is not an ideal situation for Swans fans
3. Adelaide bid on Campbell and we do not match. Swans now have pick 4, and guaranteed access to one of McDonald or Hollands depending on who North pick.
 
It guarantees that that would happen.

Is a small chance that could happen regardless. Is all fun and games. Would equally be happy with any top 5 prospect, Campbell and keep our first round 2021 pick.

Only really force our hand if we think that a bid will occur prior to our pick. 95% sure that it won't happen
How strongly go you think Swans are wanting Campbell? Any chance they might let him go if a bid came in at pick 1 for him?
 
If Carlton had traded pick 1 in 2018 for say 3 and 6 from Gold Coast, which I believe GC tried to achieve, then they would have had Ben King and Isaac Rankine /Connor Rose instead of Walsh. Which would you prefer as a Carlton supporter?
It's a very interesting theory.

I guess it comes down to whether we are 100% on pick 1. If it's Thilthorpe I'll concede he's probably not in other clubs thinking so we could afford to move back.

If it's Hollands we COULD get away with a shift but it's risky. If we trade it with Sydney say.... Do they take McDonald and North take DGB ??

If we want McDonald we aren't shifting from Pick 1 because he ain't gonna be there.
 
How strongly go you think Swans are wanting Campbell? Any chance they might let him go if a bid came in at pick 1 for him?

No idea to be fair.

I would pass, rate him in to 6-10 range. There are the intangibles to consider such as long term academy retention, etc which may weigh on the decision
 
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