AFL 2021 AFL Grand Final (Macrae is a spud thread)

[Prochard123]

You're getting even money for a midfielder to outpoll a Ruck, Boyd is the only Ruckman to even poll in the last 10 Grand Finals.

I don't disagree on that, but Bevo = good coach is just ???

If I were coaching Bont, Macrae, Libba, Smith, Dunkley, Naughton, Daniel, Hunter, WBD would've had a monopoly on the premiership since 2017

 

[jefffff34]

I've done a bit of study in regards to the Norm Smith Medal (and I have also looked into other media based decisions for medals in recent times - Anzac/Derby/Showdown) and there is a strong correlation at the moment to winning the medal if you get 20+ possessions, and 2 goals.

Norm Smith Since 2017
2017 GF - Martin (29&2) - only other player to reach the barrier was Sloane (21&2 - and in a losing team)
2018 GF - Shuey (34&1) - no one reached it.
2019 GF - Martin (22&4) - no one else reached it.
2020 GF - Martin (21&4) - no one else reached it.

I know I have thrown up a small sample size, but I have gone through some of the other medals, and it's a decent barrier to look for. I also lost all of my spreadsheet when my computer crashed...

Anyway, with this in mind, the following players have reached this mark the following amount of times...

8 - Bontempelli (22.35% of his games since 2018), Petracca (17.24%)
4 - Smith, Dale
3 - Liberatore
2 - Treloar, Oliver
1 - Dunkley, Macrae. McDonald, Gawn, Neal-Bullen, Langdon, Jackson

I have then used my equations of my saved spreadsheet to work out the chances of each player getting 20 possessions, and 2 goals.
31% - Bontempelli
28% - Petracca
20% - Smith
16% - McDonald
14% - Liberatore, Treloar
13% - Dunkley, Gawn
12% - Oliver
11% - Dale, Neal-Bullen
10% - Langdon
6% - Macrae, Jackson

Then, my going through the odds and looking for value, I have worked out the 3 from each team that provide me with the most value...them being...

Treloar, Dunkley, Dale, McDonald, Langdon & Neal-Bullen.

Betfair is offering some juicy odds FYI.

 

[Robo87]

Neal-Bullen.

well you can cross out NB, he didnt get a single brownlow vote all year, & hasnt played well enough imo, also lacking in the goals area.

personally i still like one of the top 7 favs for the medal to win it, i dont think a roughie like JJ wins it this year.

 

[ShaunWDT]

well you can cross out NB, he didnt get a single brownlow vote all year, & hasnt played well enough imo, also lacking in the goals area.

personally i still like one of the top 7 favs for the medal to win it, i dont think a roughie like JJ wins it this year.

The top players just feel too good in this game and theres too many different combinations for them all to get shut down, if you went through every win for both sides you'd give best on to that top group just about every match.

 

[yamborghinidream]

I've done a bit of study in regards to the Norm Smith Medal (and I have also looked into other media based decisions for medals in recent times - Anzac/Derby/Showdown) and there is a strong correlation at the moment to winning the medal if you get 20+ possessions, and 2 goals.

Norm Smith Since 2017
2017 GF - Martin (29&2) - only other player to reach the barrier was Sloane (21&2 - and in a losing team)
2018 GF - Shuey (34&1) - no one reached it.
2019 GF - Martin (22&4) - no one else reached it.
2020 GF - Martin (21&4) - no one else reached it.

I know I have thrown up a small sample size, but I have gone through some of the other medals, and it's a decent barrier to look for. I also lost all of my spreadsheet when my computer crashed...

Anyway, with this in mind, the following players have reached this mark the following amount of times...

8 - Bontempelli (22.35% of his games since 2018), Petracca (17.24%)
4 - Smith, Dale
3 - Liberatore
2 - Treloar, Oliver
1 - Dunkley, Macrae. McDonald, Gawn, Neal-Bullen, Langdon, Jackson

I have then used my equations of my saved spreadsheet to work out the chances of each player getting 20 possessions, and 2 goals.
31% - Bontempelli
28% - Petracca
20% - Smith
16% - McDonald
14% - Liberatore, Treloar
13% - Dunkley, Gawn
12% - Oliver
11% - Dale, Neal-Bullen
10% - Langdon
6% - Macrae, Jackson

Then, my going through the odds and looking for value, I have worked out the 3 from each team that provide me with the most value...them being...

Treloar, Dunkley, Dale, McDonald, Langdon & Neal-Bullen.

Betfair is offering some juicy odds FYI.

I'm not going to pot you for thinking creatively because it's interesting stuff but the truth is you're almost never* going to find "value" in a medal market.

Your analysis is pretty flawed because none of the guys you list "only" hit 20/2, they exceeded the disposals or goals cutoffs by an absolute mile; i.e. do you think Dale has 4 goals in him, or Dunkley 30 disposals? You would be better off just looking at what % of games they are best on ground in (CV/Blow as proxy) and you'll get a more accurate read on their chances.

Medal markets are 150-180%, priced so that popular runners are well unders and to be honest a complete lottery.

There isn't much point overthinking it, just back a couple of runners you like and enjoy the game

*I say almost never because in consecutive years Brodie Grundy was like 11-13s for the Rose-Sutton Medal which genuinely was value going up against Tim English in the ruck who was a total spud at the time.

 

[Jugada]

I'm not going to pot you for thinking creatively because it's interesting stuff but the truth is you're almost never* going to find "value" in a medal market.

Your analysis is pretty flawed because none of the guys you list "only" hit 20/2, they exceeded the disposals or goals cutoffs by an absolute mile; i.e. do you think Dale has 4 goals in him, or Dunkley 30 disposals? You would be better off just looking at what % of games they are best on ground in (CV/Blow as proxy) and you'll get a more accurate read on their chances.

Medal markets are 150-180%, priced so that popular runners are well unders and to be honest a complete lottery.

There isn't much point overthinking it, just back a couple of runners you like and enjoy the game

*I say almost never because in consecutive years Brodie Grundy was like 11-13s for the Rose-Sutton Medal which genuinely was value going up against Tim English in the ruck who was a total spud at the time.

Hence why you place your bets at Betfair which is currently sitting at 111%

 

[iluvparis]

Hence why you place your bets at Betfair which is currently sitting at 111%

Also if your backing a moral longie like Ed Hutchings Langdon on the fair the market goes in play once the game starts. Worth leaving up a lay bet for your stake at like $5 or something if you are taking a mega longie

 

[NonPhixion]

Petracca

 

[FrankGrimes]

From memory the Norm Smith betting has cash out during the game also, back a long shot, hope they start well and cash out..

 

[The_Steadier]

NO WAY IN HELL MELBOURNE LOSES THIS BOYS THEY SHOULD BE 1.0001

In b4 maxxx acl at opening bounce and oliver retires at halftime to become a fulltime kmart catalogue model.

Medal markets are 150-180%, priced so that popular runners are well unders and to be honest a complete lottery.

There isn't much point overthinking it, just back a couple of runners you like and enjoy the game

Popular NS runners aren't unders before the prelim #justsayin

 

[Ohh Ok]

As alluded to, there ain’t massive value in the norm Smith, but it’s the GF so why not go all out. Has been won predominantly by midfielders so backing in these lads.


2u - Oliver top 3 Norm Smith - $2.50 - Ladbrokes
2u - Petracca top 3 Norm Smith - $2.50 - 365
0.5u - Oliver Norm Smith - $7 - TopSport
0.5u - Petracca Norm Smith - $7 - SB
These two are my picks for the Norm Smith, taking a risk by leaving Gawn out, but unfortunately don’t think he can back last match up, that was a career best game and this is a medal historically won by midfielders. Petracca and Oliver will be around the ball all day and are the two most influential players for the Demons. These two will have to be at their best to go toe-to-toe with the impressive Dogs midfield. At worst I see one of these two polling enough in the top 3 to ensure stakes back on these bets (small lost on Petracca, odds came in). 4 of the last 10 Norm Smith medal counts have had a player from the losing team poll in the top 3, all in closer matches, if the Dees go down I do expect it to be a close loss and of course am counting from a heroic effort from one of these two. Going all out as we generally see a Norm Smith medalist from the winning side, so really backing in the Dees here by siding with these two.

$50 - Bont or Bull - $5 - TopSport
Decent special on offer to get at Bontempelli and Petracca who both will be right in the hunt for the Norm Smith, not only as midfielders, but goal kicking midfielders who will be around the ball all day. You’d get less than $4 odds if you were to split your stakes and take both players in singles making this a good value play.

 

[3rd Grade Maggy]

Nuffy question - but looking round last night I couldn't find the option on the apps I have - if I wanted to multi up first goal, last goal, NS and pick your own line, will any agencies take that? Or am I pretty much restricted to the limited options they have for SGM?

 

[Zevon]

Nuffy question - but looking round last night I couldn't find the option on the apps I have - if I wanted to multi up first goal, last goal, NS and pick your own line, will any agencies take that? Or am I pretty much restricted to the limited options they have for SGM?

Can do it on Bet365 using ‘bet builder’. Just threw this together to demonstrate:

 

[Nuggetz]

Realised you can do norm smith & h2h sgm on b365. Only found norm smith and margins markets on other sites. I don't think the normsmith winner will come from a losing side, too many big guns in both teams.

 

[demon_fanatic]

I'm sticking with the over 155.5, first game was a total shutout by Dees and still went 146, second game was wet and got to 140, fast track and the wind factor now seems to be gone by morning early arvo, both teams have such attacking weapons to counter the defence... can really see a couple of 45-50 pt qtrs to get this nicely clear. Also the potential of lots of goals late if one team is on top and it becomes party time, Cue's were in rack by 3qtr time of prelim as they went into injury prevention mode or their prelim scores could of been 180-190s.

 

[Nuggetz]

Really liking Macrae NS & dogs h2h win @19 on 365 via betbuilder.

 

[Nuggetz]

From memory the Norm Smith betting has cash out during the game also, back a long shot, hope they start well and cash out..

Will be too drunk to realise but good spot haha

 

[C_Turn]

Really liking Macrae NS & dogs h2h win @19 on 365 via betbuilder.

Agreed if you're having a nibble on NS worth pairing with a H2H win too.

Lachie Hunter & dogs @ $51 feels overs too - 0.25u

 

[Nuggetz]

Thoughts on Oliver/Bontempelli 60+ Dsps @ 4.50 on tab todays offers?

 

[Derby_77]

Thoughts on Oliver/Bontempelli 60+ Dsps @ 4.50 on tab todays offers?

Seems ok value but both don’t usually have big 30+ games (especially Bont) and a Harmes/Dunkley run with may hurt one of them.

 

[yamborghinidream]

Popular NS runners aren't unders before the prelim #justsayin

They're worse, because you're multiplying the margin in the medal bet with the margin in the make grand final price. But keep going with your nonsense fiction.

 

[The_Steadier]

They're worse, because you're multiplying the margin in the medal bet with the margin in the make grand final price. But keep going with your nonsense fiction.

Irrelevant to a punter who wants to bet on the flag prior to a prelim.

Such a punter has already decided to eat the margin in the make the grand final price.

 

[NonPhixion]

Agreed if you're having a nibble on NS worth pairing with a H2H win too.

Lachie Hunter & dogs @ $51 feels overs too - 0.25u

Hunter is $65 on Betfair

 

[burge13]

Hunter is $65 on Betfair

He also didn't poll a vote all season and has had 1 BoG since 2019.

Did have 2x 3 vote games in 2018 but that is ages ago now...

 

[NYRB]

I did a quick calculation of the PointsBet Spreads for the Stat Multiplier (Kicks x Goals x Handballs). The output also shows the average handballs, average kicks, average goals and average disposals for the selected 24 players:




Stats wise , surprising to see Petracca average more disposal than the Bont. Goals wise they are about on a level keel. (And yes I admit I did have Petracca winning in the Brownlow on Sunday, as I felt like his season was on par with his, if not better).

Reckon 25+ Disposals and 2+ Goals should go close to taking Norm Smith on Saturday.

$5.10 for Bont 2+ Goals and 25+ Disposals
or $3.75 for Petracca 2+ Goals and 25+ Disposals


or if your feeling brave Bont and Petracca 2+ goals each, 25+ Disposals each @ 19.25.

Agree its probably better to back 1 of those 2 outright, if you think they will win Norm at a slightly better price of around 6-7's. Might have a go on a couple of players I like to cover the 'Overs' on the multiplier come closer to game time.

Think if you have the bankroll, you have to take 'UNDER' on Petracca for the multiplier, and you may look to hedge your bets on him winning Norm. 207 is a massive line in a Grand Final to cover.