AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[SM]

Anyone like any of the BYO markets on SB? I hit one last year so trying to have a look but nothing jumps out.

 

[dontlimitme]

Anyone like any of the BYO markets on SB? I hit one last year so trying to have a look but nothing jumps out.

i'm on these


Oliver and Bont top 3, Parker most votes Syd and De Goey most votes Pies, Boak and Merrett 20+ votes, Steele 25+ votes @ 13.00

Steele Top 3, Mitchell to outpoll Parish, De Goey most votes Collingwood, Bailey Smith most votes Bulldogs exc. Bont @ 15.00

Wines Winner, Bont Most 3 Vote Games, Oliver Lead After Round 10, Steele Most Votes Last 8 rounds @ 17.00

Bontempelli most 3 vote games, Wines to poll in the most games, Oliver to lead at round 10, Petracca to poll 25+ votes @ 18.00

 

[SM]

i'm on these


Oliver and Bont top 3, Parker most votes Syd and De Goey most votes Pies, Boak and Merrett 20+ votes, Steele 25+ votes @ 13.00

Steele Top 3, Mitchell to outpoll Parish, De Goey most votes Collingwood, Bailey Smith most votes Bulldogs exc. Bont @ 15.00

Wines Winner, Bont Most 3 Vote Games, Oliver Lead After Round 10, Steele Most Votes Last 8 rounds @ 17.00

Bontempelli most 3 vote games, Wines to poll in the most games, Oliver to lead at round 10, Petracca to poll 25+ votes @ 18.00

Cheers, just seen this one I don't mind:

 

[DCasey91]

To Poll a Vote:

Sloane, Koschitzke, Thomas, Prestia, Houli, Goldstein, Finalyson, Tippa, Daniher, Short, Swallow, Cumming, Hurn and Heppell.

@21.05 (Powered SB). Chucked a pineapple on it.

One and only bet for tonight (bit of fun).

GL everyone!

 

[Crownlow]

Here is my current roll over plan using topsport

 

[botswana42]

Here is my current roll over plan using topsport

View attachment 1239880

That looks a beauty, i'll be following you in, maybe with some small adjustments. Great idea, let's go!

 

[kicksome]

Bontempelli most 3 vote games, Wines to poll in the most games, Oliver to lead at round 10, Petracca to poll 25+ votes @ 18.00

i like this one

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Hello Kent’s, long time no see. Looks a bit of a chook raffle this year. If you haven’t bet early I think the overall tie will give a good sight at $4 BF. Give it strength…

 

[The_Steadier]

3 Vote Multi on Topsport - Rd1 Steven May/Rd2 Andrew Brayshaw/Rd3 Grundy/Rd6 Keays/Rd 10 Grundy @ 41.77

Nice I added these + the rounds steele is value (8, 11, 12, 21) @ $289

I call it the- "you're right and steele wins (or goes bloody close to winning)"

 

[mac23]

Comparing the odds of SB/LB/B365/PB for 3 vote games to the players given the clear 3 by Betfair

Round	Player	SB	Ladbrokes	Bet365	PB
1​	D.Martin	$1.03​	$1.05​	$1.04​	$1.04​
1​	B.Smith	$1.07​	$1.16​	$1.12​	$1.15​
1​	T.Walker	$1.10​	$1.20​	$1.16​	$1.15​
1​	C.Mills	$1.05​	$1.07​	$1.05​	$1.07​
1​	T.Boak	$1.07​	$1.08​	$1.07​	$1.08​
2​	Z.Butters	$1.30​	$1.25​	$1.20​	$1.11​
2​	N.Anderson	$1.45​	$1.50​	$1.45​	$1.40​
2​	M.Bontempelli	$1.10​	$1.20​	$1.20​	$1.30​
2​	A.Brayshaw	$1.87​	$1.95​	$1.95​	$1.80​

From the looks of that, Ladbrokes probably the place to go for rollovers. If anyone has a bot that could enter the data though for 23 rounds that'd be even better!

$500 max win on these markets Lads/Neds just FYI

 

[Geeves Train]

ive got a multi with tab that i can cash out with tex as adelaide winner w/o laird. do i cash it out at say round 20 before keays polls in the last round? ive got dusty guthrie kelly parker lyons bont oliver boak as the other legs

Hey mate, if you want to cash out you’ll need to do it before the count starts at 7:30pm. No way will they keep the teams markets open!

 

[mac23]

i'm on these


Oliver and Bont top 3, Parker most votes Syd and De Goey most votes Pies, Boak and Merrett 20+ votes, Steele 25+ votes @ 13.00

Steele Top 3, Mitchell to outpoll Parish, De Goey most votes Collingwood, Bailey Smith most votes Bulldogs exc. Bont @ 15.00

Wines Winner, Bont Most 3 Vote Games, Oliver Lead After Round 10, Steele Most Votes Last 8 rounds @ 17.00

Bontempelli most 3 vote games, Wines to poll in the most games, Oliver to lead at round 10, Petracca to poll 25+ votes @ 18.00

Book? Can’t seem to multi these anywhere

 

[dontlimitme]

Book? Can’t seem to multi these anywhere

sportsbet BYOB

 

[The_Steadier]

I call this one:
"Ollie & Jack's Big Night"

 

[NYRB]

Round 2 v Saints
Watching live I thought Gawn had to get the 1. Saints had no Marshall or Ryder and Gawn took advantage. Highest ranked player on the ground despite Olivers 37 and Steele's 24 and 3 goals.

Round 3 v GWS
Majority give him 3 here. 24 disposals 2 goals. Crazy good game

Round 4 v Geelong
Don't discount Max here. 23 disposals 1 goal and 41 hitouts. Go back and look at how often he polls when he gets 20+ disposals and 40+ hitouts. It's staggering

Round 5 v Hawks
Best on on most predictors you'll see. 26 disposals and a long range goal.

Rounds 8 and 9 vs Sydney and Carlton
No real standout performances in these games. Oliver tipped to get the 3 in both of them purely because no one else really put their hand up. Gawn should sneak 1 vote across these 2 matches. 40+ hitouts in both and was particularly good in that Carlton match.

Rounds 11 and 12 vs Bulldogs and Lions
These are the rounds most have underpolled him. Been questioning myself for giving him 2 in both these games until I saw the Sportsbet odds in them.
View attachment 1235715View attachment 1235716

Max is a perennial 2 vote master. He is currently the most efficient in the comp at pulling a 2 vote game.
Round 11 vs dogs he should get it behind Oliver. Round 12 vs Lions he should get it behind Petracca

Rounds 13-19
0.5-1 vote can be sneaked. 56 hitout game vs Dogs in the wet where he was smashing some of them 30 metres forward, as good as a kick.

Round 20 v Suns
Had him getting the 2 here behind Oliver. 2 unbelievable goals. This one is quite a raffle I admit.

Round 22 v Adelaide
The forgotten man here in this game. Dal Santo as the boundary rider admitted he was about to look for Gawn to interview after the match until Fritsch kicked 4 late ones. Max was best on all day until that happened. 10 clearances. Was taking it out from the centre and kicking long quite a bit. Should get another 2.

Round 23 v Cats
He'll finish with another 2. Personally wouldn't be surprised to see him pip Oliver in this game. Oliver played one of the best games a midfielder can play. Gawn played one of the best games a ruckman can play + won them the match.


I got him getting around the 17-18 mark. Really could be on anything but having gone through Melbourne's last 150 matches (stats wise only), 2 things are clear:
1 - Oliver should've won 2 Brownlows
2 - Gawn gets his fair share

A couple things I note about your analysis:

One thing I have common with yours, is Gawn has his quite patch during the middle of the season. Gawn has quite periods from Round 13-19.

Second thing is, I don't rate him a chance to poll in Round 12 . I have behind 8 other players. I might need a quick review and will bring it to share on here as soon as possible.

Think this will be one of my last reviews before the count, if not the last. Upon the 2nd review, Petracca deserves to start the favourite but I created a market for W/O Petracca or the favourite and my model came up with Zac Bailey as the likely to poll highest W/O Petracca. I don't think Gawn is in calculations for the 3 or 2 here.


Here is my analysis of the Rd 12 Melbourne v Brisbane match




Sportsbet have priced the market with Gawn as 3rd favourite..............and who knows Im actually leaning towards Oliver polling 1 vote max in this match.

 

[Hawklover08]

Here is my current roll over plan using topsport

View attachment 1239880

Have you used topsport for this before? Are they usually quick to pay out round by round multis?

 

[Crownlow]

Have you used topsport for this before? Are they usually quick to pay out round by round multis?

I have not, im hoping it's quick payment.
might have to skip a few legs if they dont.

 

[FootyStar#1]

I have not, im hoping it's quick payment.
might have to skip a few legs if they dont.

that’s what I’m worried about, I have a feeing they’ll be slow so I’ll be trusting SB for rollovers.

 

[StringyDog]

Good luck everyone, this is how my top30 ended up, my model gives a bigger edge to inside players related stats and bigger penalty to losing sides depending on margin which is why the likes of Walsh, Mundy, Laird are a bit lower than most have them, still work in progress so see how it goes this year.

Think Laird, Mundy, Mills and McCluggage are risks for multi legs, some will get to top20, but don't think all will, Laird is one I want as got him top20 at 4.5 in multis, others I only have smaller stakes in, better result if others on bubble at odds get in.

1 Oliver 35
2 Bontempelli 33
2 Wines 33
4 Steele 32
5 Petracca 28
5 Parish 28
7 Miller 27
7 Macrae 27
9 Boak 24
9 Parker 24
9 Lyons 24
12 Merrett 22
13 Walsh 21
13 Mitchell 21
15 Guthrie 19
15 J.Kelly 19
17 Zorko 16
17 Gawn 16
19 Sheed 15
20 Laird 14
21 Mills 13
21 McCluggage 13
21 Mundy 13
21 Martin 13
25 Amon 12
25 Cunnington 12
25 Adams 12
25 DeGoey 12
29 Liberatore 11
29 Selwood 11
29 Dangerfield 11
29 Stringer 11
29 T.Kelly 11
29 Keays 11

 

[demon_fanatic]

Good luck everyone, this is how my top30 ended up, my model gives a bigger edge to inside players related stats and bigger penalty to losing sides depending on margin which is why the likes of Walsh, Mundy, Laird are a bit lower than most have them, still work in progress so see how it goes this year.

Think Laird, Mundy, Mills and McCluggage are risks for multi legs, some will get to top20, but don't think all will, Laird is one I want as got him top20 at 4.5 in multis, others I only have smaller stakes in, better result if others on bubble at odds get in.

1 Oliver 35
2 Bontempelli 33
2 Wines 33
4 Steele 32
5 Petracca 28
5 Parish 28
7 Miller 27
7 Macrae 27
9 Boak 24
9 Parker 24
9 Lyons 24
12 Merrett 22
13 Walsh 21
13 Mitchell 21
15 Guthrie 19
15 J.Kelly 19
17 Zorko 16
17 Gawn 16
19 Sheed 15
20 Laird 14
21 Mills 13
21 McCluggage 13
21 Mundy 13
21 Martin 13
25 Amon 12
25 Cunnington 12
25 Adams 12
25 DeGoey 12
29 Liberatore 11
29 Selwood 11
29 Dangerfield 11
29 Stringer 11
29 T.Kelly 11
29 Keays 11

im not really worried about Mundy flopping and not winning freo or top 20, he stands out, is fair, kicks goals and has a good voting record, if you only have Mundy 13 I would of expected you to have Brayshaw on at least 11 to make up for it?? where did you Have Brayshaw and fyfe... Mundy definately is on the dirft though out to 1.15 freo top votes from 1.08 at tab

 

[10571z]

Where is round betting on Sportsbet?

 

[dontlimitme]

Where is round betting on Sportsbet?

Join Australia's Favourite Online Betting Website | Sportsbet

Bet on horse racing, AFL, rugby and other events with Sportsbet. Join Australia's Favourite Online Betting and Entertainment Website.

www.sportsbet.com.au

 

[kaiserchief13]

Think this will be one of my last reviews before the count, if not the last. Upon the 2nd review, Petracca deserves to start the favourite but I created a market for W/O Petracca or the favourite and my model came up with Zac Bailey as the likely to poll highest W/O Petracca. I don't think Gawn is in calculations for the 3 or 2 here.


Here is my analysis of the Rd 12 Melbourne v Brisbane match

View attachment 1239921


Sportsbet have priced the market with Gawn as 3rd favourite..............and who knows Im actually leaning towards Oliver polling 1 vote max in this match.

What R library you using for this ?

 

[Hava Alle]

Gawn 15+ @ $2.59 (SB) is overs imo. Should be closer to $1.80.

 

[X_box_X]

Gawn 15+ @ $2.59 (SB) is overs imo. Should be closer to $1.80.

Considering only one count has him clearing this out of 14, no thanks.