Strategy 2021 Draft and Hypothetical pick trade proposals

[Strapping Young Lad]

Lol seriously can we just have a ban on posting things ol clickbait Kornes says…

none of it is interesting and it’s all designed to just stir people up.

Hodgey wants a new rule! Hodgey gets a new rule.

No more clickbait shit from Cornes in here.


Also:

Can we also threadban Rendell quotes. The bloke is senile.

Done

 

[Braidz]

Re Cerra
Don’t get what the fascination is with Carlton. Surely can see they are an absolute shambles. Did he support them growing up or something?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Re Cerra
Don’t get what the fascination is with Carlton. Surely can see they are an absolute shambles. Did he support them growing up or something?

He hasn't actually fromalised a request to join them.
Media have said though that Carlton are the expected club, as they have a pick they're willing to part with, unlike other Vic clubs.

There's apparently been little interest in paying both the contract and trade fee.

 

[Braidz]

He hasn't actually fromalised a request to join them.
Media have said though that Carlton are the expected club, as they have a pick they're willing to part with, unlike other Vic clubs.

There's apparently been little interest in paying both the contract and trade fee.

Ok. So media doing their speculating. Walk to the PSD and we will grab him there

 

[jenniferHAWKinS]

Possible Trade 1: Howe for Sydney’s 2nd rounder currently pick 32 (sweetener if necessary)
-Exchange pick 24 and pick 32 for Bulldogs 1st rounder currently pick 14 (Dogs nett profit off 208 points to match Darcy bid)
National Draft Picks 5, 14*, 21, 56, 65

Possible Trade 2: O’Brien for one of Richmond’s 3rd rounders either 40 or 44 Or Giant’s 3rd rounder pick 49 (sweetener if necessary) - both teams looking for a tall defender. Keep Howe and use the pick received for Timmy plus pick 24 and 56 to get Bulldogs 1st rounder.
National Draft Picks 5, 14*, 21, 65

Getting Bulldogs 1st gives us a great chance of getting 2 kids we rate in the top 10 in this draft.

 

[Braidz]

Possible Trade 1: Howe for Sydney’s 2nd rounder currently pick 32 (sweetener if necessary)
-Exchange pick 24 and pick 32 for Bulldogs 1st rounder currently pick 14 (Dogs nett profit off 208 points to match Darcy bid)
National Draft Picks 5, 14*, 21, 56, 65

Possible Trade 2: O’Brien for one of Richmond’s 3rd rounders either 40 or 44 Or Giant’s 3rd rounder pick 49 (sweetener if necessary) - both teams looking for a tall defender. Keep Howe and use the pick received for Timmy plus pick 24 and 56 to get Bulldogs 1st rounder.
National Draft Picks 5, 14*, 21, 65

Getting Bulldogs 1st gives us a great chance of getting 2 kids we rate in the top 10 in this draft.

Isn’t O’Brien a free agent?

 

[jenniferHAWKinS]

Isn’t O’Brien a free agent?

Yes he is. Hopefully if another club is keen we would get a 3rd rounder as compensation. Quite happy to keep him as a key defender/ back up.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

If Blues can't get the Cerra deal done for whatever reason (unlikley but hear me out) wonder if we can get involved with offering a senior player + later pick e.g. JOM + our 2nd.

Could work if Freo have that or letting him walk to the PSD.

Or a future first and a 2nd (one of 2 this year).

 

[CHUBBSS]

Just a feeling but I reckon Sammy will get cerra for some weird deal

 

[chopflop]

Don't knnow if this belongs here or draft thread. Credit to Lore who created this table in the draft thread.

Trade idea 1
Hawthorn give WB's Pick 21 and 24
WB Give hawthorn 14 and Future 2nd (likely late 2nd).

Trade idea 2
Hawthorn give Richmond 21, 24 and 56
Richmond give the Hawthorn 16 and 26
Richmond give WB's 24, 40 and 56 for 14

Hawthorn receive 16 and 26 - Hawthorn Lose 21, 24 and 56

Richmond Receive 14 and 21 -Richmond lose 16, 26, 40

WB's Receive 24, 40 and 56 - WB's Lose 14 (+300 draft points)

Means we only take 3 in the draft and use pick 56 to move up the board.
Richmond move both their picks forward only giving up 40
Bulldogs get an extra 300 points

We finish with a nice draft hand of 5, 16, 26
Richmond end up with a better top end also - 7, 14, 21 and 28

 

[Iceman!]

I think Cerra is benefiting big time from this years trade period looking very underwhelming. Some of the 'offers' i have seen are legit insane unless i have been watching a different Adam Cerra that plays for Freo.

6 plus a future first (lets be honest another top 10 pick).... Even with something going back that is insane.

Cerra is a nice player, he has neat foot skills and has improved each year in the AFL. I like him but **** me people are talking about him like he is a star.

I am glad we are seemingly not in the market for him

 

[Braidz]

I think Cerra is benefiting big time from this years trade period looking very underwhelming. Some of the 'offers' i have seen are legit insane unless i have been watching a different Adam Cerra that plays for Freo.

6 plus a future first (lets be honest another top 10 pick).... Even with something going back that is insane.

Cerra is a nice player, he has neat foot skills and has improved each year in the AFL. I like him but fu** me people are talking about him like he is a star.

I am glad we are seemingly not in the market for him

Carlton will pay massive overs for him

 

[HODGEYROAD]

He hasn't actually fromalised a request to join them.
Media have said though that Carlton are the expected club, as they have a pick they're willing to part with, unlike other Vic clubs.

There's apparently been little interest in paying both the contract and trade fee.

You don't think we'd be willing to part with Pick 7 if Cerra wanted us ?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

You don't think we'd be willing to part with Pick 7 if Cerra wanted us ?

We have Pick 5, and I would hope not.

 

[dcutter]

You don't think we'd be willing to part with Pick 7 if Cerra wanted us ?

Sincerely hope not. As a previous poster suggested, he's not that good. The hype around him appears to be more because he's a former pick 5 and gettable and less about what he has produced already.

The vibe around hawthorn over the last while has been around going to the draft so you'd think we'd keep our pick 5. In saying that, Hawthorn make me nervous at this time of year, you never quite know what we're going to do.

 

[daniel23]

I'm surprised by the lack of love cerra is getting , he is going to be a gun and exactly the player we all hope we draft being that inside outside mid. I guess it's exciting getting something new and shiny but with another compromised under 18s year I'd now be more then willing to move our pick for him. He seems set on carlton for some reason.

 

[Bardo State]

Just a feeling but I reckon Sammy will get cerra for some weird deal

Very slim chance now but the only way I see this happening is if the trade talks with Carlton break down. Like if they try to dig their heels in and not give up pick 6. If they're the only suitor, they could try to offer a pick 18-25 and 1-2 of SPS/Fisher/Silvagni/Dow.

Then last minute the Dockers tell Cerra "we really can't get an adequate deal done with Carlton. If you really want to go back to Victoria, we need you to accept a trade with Hawthorn who are willing to give up their pick 5, at a reduced salary."

 

[Brant]

I'm surprised by the lack of love cerra is getting , he is going to be a gun and exactly the player we all hope we draft being that inside outside mid. I guess it's exciting getting something new and shiny but with another compromised under 18s year I'd now be more then willing to move our pick for him. He seems set on carlton for some reason.

No need to try to insult people who see Cerra differently to you. For the life of me, I can't see how you & others would consider trading a Pick 5 (7) for him - but that's cool, I don't have to agree.

Personally, I'd much rather use the Pick on Callaghan but given he'll not likely be available, I'd rather we use it on Erasmus than Cerra.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Mitchell + second round pick to Carlton for pick 6
Pick 6 to freo for cerra

Ceglar to dogs for a late first/early second (pending trades) - inclusive of us picking up some of his wage
Third rounder to pies for cox (covers gap left with ceglar)

 

[Howe Amazing]

Just a feeling but I reckon Sammy will get cerra for some weird deal

I think in our favour is Freo want Erasmus and we have pick below Blues. If we are keen on him we could use this as leverage with a pick swap plus extra picks

 

[TylerDurden]

I think in our favour is Freo want Erasmus and we have pick below Blues. If we are keen on him we could use this as leverage with a pick swap plus extra picks

They want Erasmus.

 

[Hawk the Talk]

We could give Freo pick 5,21,24

We get Cerra and pick 8.

We’d still jag someone like Goater, Rachele or Sinn with that pick. I don’t know if Freo would love that but if it falls through with Carlton they may not have as much bargaining power.

 

[Noel Gallagher]

We could give Freo pick 5,21,24

We get Cerra and pick 8.

We’d still jag someone like Goater, Rachele or Sinn with that pick. I don’t know if Freo would love that but if it falls through with Carlton they may not have as much bargaining power.

This is an excellent deal for Freo - not too bad for us. If we did this I would like to bring in another second rounder as well if possible

 

[Brant]

We could give Freo pick 5,21,24

We get Cerra and pick 8.

We probably could do that. But I really don't think we should.

 

[Bardo State]

No need to try to insult people who see Cerra differently to you. For the life of me, I can't see how you & others would consider trading a Pick 5 (7) for him - but that's cool, I don't have to agree.

Personally, I'd much rather use the Pick on Callaghan but given he'll not likely be available, I'd rather we use it on Erasmus than Cerra.

Looking at picks taken 6-8 from the 2010 to 2016 drafts, I get a breakdown of:

Players Cerra will likely be better than: 14
Players who will likely be close to as good as Cerra or it's unclear to me: 4 (Heppel, Haynes, Hopper, Scrimshaw)
Players who are likely better than what Cerra will be: 3 (Wingard, Macrae, Wines)

Just on a historical numbers basis, 5 for Cerra looks easily worth it to me. You can quibble around the edges of those judgements (Hopper maybe better, Scrimshaw maybe worse) but I don't think you can argue that in a typical draft year, you'll likely get a player better than Cerra at the 7th pick.

 

[Brant]

Looking at picks taken 6-8 from the 2010 to 2016 drafts, I get a breakdown of:

Players Cerra will likely be better than: 14
Players who will likely be close to as good as Cerra or it's unclear to me: 4 (Heppel, Haynes, Hopper, Scrimshaw)
Players who are likely better than what Cerra will be: 3 (Wingard, Macrae, Wines)

Just on a historical numbers basis, 5 for Cerra looks easily worth it to me. You can quibble around the edges of those judgements (Hopper maybe better, Scrimshaw maybe worse) but I don't think you can argue that in a typical draft year, you'll likely get a player better than Cerra at the 7th pick.

I love that there's some reasoning to your wanting Cerra at 5 (7). I just don't rate the guy nearly as highly as others seem to so I don't see the same level of value & think we'll be better served by those available around Pick 5 (7).