List Mgmt. 2021 Draft Picks part deux: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[Mego Red]

I take a lot from eDPS' draft ratings, and i'm worried that come Pick 6 no one comes for our selection for us to split, and we'll end up taking either someone who's not rated at that pick (Rachele/Ward), or someone who's 'best available' but doesn't fill a need (Hobbs/Gibcus/Erasmus)

If we manage to avoid that scenario either through a trade down, or IF someone like Callaghan falls to our pick then i think it'll be an overall success, but i'm definitely seeing some red flags already.

The problem with this time of year is how much weight people put into ratings, as if they're a fixed and defined amount. "This player is worth pick 7 but not pick 4".

I believe players are in bands or tiers, which we're seeing a LOT more this year. How teams choose in those bands is probably dependant on what their list requirements are.

ModernArtillery did a good one, but there's a few going around on the draft board and elsewhere:

Tier 1
Top tier talent. Minimal flaws, if any. Hard to envision these guys not playing 150+ games if they stay healthy.
1. Jason Horne-Francis
2. Nick Daicos

Tier 2
Top tier talent with minor flaws. High level of natural football ability with the physical tools necessary to have success at AFL level. Hard to envision these guys not playing 100+ games if healthy.
3. Neil Erasmus
4. Tyler Sonsie
5. Josh Ward
6. Finn Callaghan
7. Ben Hobbs
8. Sam Darcy
9. Josh Rachele

Tier 3A
Easily talented enough to make it at AFL level but possess a flaw that raises just a minor concern. High floor prospects.
10. Matthew Johnson
11. Josh Gibcus
12. Zac Taylor
13. Josh Goater
14. Connor MacDonald
15. Darcy Wilmot
16. Mitch Owens
17. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
18. Tom Brown

Tier 3B
Easily talented enough to make it at AFL level but possess a flaw/s that raises a minor concern/s. Similar ceiling to 'Tier 3A' but a lower floor.
19. Kai Lohmann
20. Josh Sinn
21. Sam Butler
22. Campbell Chesser
23. Rhett Bazzo
24. Arlo Draper
25. Mac Andrew
26. Jye Amiss

Tier 4
AFL standard traits and obvious role at the next level. Don't quite have the ceiling of the prospects in higher tiers but have a typically well-rounded skill set. Project as serviceable role players at AFL level.
27. Paul Curtis
28. Marcus Windhager
29. Brady Hough
30. Jacob Van Rooyen
31. James Willis
32. Judson Clarke

Tier 5A
Enough talent to find a role at AFL level and a best 22 ceiling, but still a fair bit of development required to get there.
33. Mitch Knevitt
34. Leek Alleer
35. Miller Bergman
36. Blake Howes
37. Cooper Murley
38. Jamieson Ballantyne
39. Josh Fahey
40. Matthew Roberts
41. Sam Banks

Tier 5B
Enough talent to find a role at AFL level but relatively low ceiling, probably fringe best 22.
42. Lachlan Rankin
43. Charlie Molan
44. Angus Sheldrick
45. Ethan Regan
46. Taj Woewodin
47. Jesse Motlop
48. Kaden Harbour
49. Toby Conway
50. Eric Benning

 

[Mego Red]

Absolutely, and your opinion won't be amongst them either, but the general consensus from people that watch a lot more junior footy than you, or that are close enough to selectors to get a better idea than most, is that Pick 6 is a bit too high for Rachele as 'best available' (Twomey 8, eDPS 14)

My preference is to obviously try and get a 'best available' selection that also fits a need, as much as every other club is looking to do the same, i'm just worried that our chances to do so are a bit more limited than others.

This is a bit of a dick comment.

Ed is good, but his opinion doesn't have any particularly higher value than Mutineer.

 

[Mego Red]

you are going to pillar me for saying this, and I will qualify it by saying I have never seen Rachele play live, but the highlights package looks errily like a Jimmy Rowe style player. He spots up well, gets to the right spots at the level he is playing at, knows where the goals are - all things Jimmy did well at the Eagles

To be fair, every decent small forward should be getting to the right spots and know where the goals are - Jimmy Rowe doesn't own those traits.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

This is a bit of a dick comment.

Ed is good, but his opinion doesn't have any particularly higher value than Mutineer.

I think you need to scroll back a bit further, mate.

My response was after giving some general thoughts on the draft and having our cheerful friend Mutineer infer that no ones opinion on Big Footy matters because Hamish Ogilvie doesn't read Big Footy.

But that's your opinion, and you're entitled to it. So is mine.

 

[Mutineer]

I think you need to scroll back a bit further, mate.

My response was after giving some general thoughts on the draft and having our cheerful friend Mutineer infer that no ones opinion on Big Footy matters because Hamish Ogilvie doesn't read Big Footy.

But that's your opinion, and you're entitled to it. So is mine.

I'm asking nicely will you please stop tagging me because I believe that comes under the trolling rules on Big Footy.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

The problem with this time of year is how much weight people put into ratings, as if they're a fixed and defined amount. "This player is worth pick 7 but not pick 4".

I believe players are in bands or tiers, which we're seeing a LOT more this year. How teams choose in those bands is probably dependant on what their list requirements are.

ModernArtillery did a good one, but there's a few going around on the draft board and elsewhere:

Nothing in Rachele's highlights scream Pick 6 at me, and this opinion is shared by others who don't believe he has a high ceiling either.

But again, it's just an opinion, and you know what they say.......

 

[CROW in BALI]

Don't make this too easy for me Shorty ......I follow all the teams very closely for SC and Fantasy .....watch every game & keep my own stats

You need to watch more North games to aappreciate LDU's improvement in the last 8 games

Hows 52% CBA attendance for Thomas

View attachment 1280217

When you have added Thor to that SuperCoach spread you can send it on if you like , Shinboner1 and crew will be doing cartwheels on the SC board

 

[Thetrader15]

Nothing in Rachele's highlights scream Pick 6 at me, and this opinion is shared by others who don't believe he has a high ceiling either.

But again, it's just an opinion, and you know what they say.......

I agree that his highlights aren't the spectacular ones we would have expected from someone who is one of the best for his age and has x-factor. We can put too much emphasis on highlights, and need to consider the whole package.

Not all players have great highlights either, they just do the basics really well all the time - kick goals whenever you have the chance, don't drop marks, etc.

He's often free on the lead, so clearly isn't slow and can read the play really well.

Toby Greene and Sam Walsh don't have the highlights packages of Shane McAdam or Isaac Rankine, but I know which two I would pick first.

 

[Peter Doherty]

With the Greenwood situation, as Vadar pointed out, they will now need to live select with their pick 97.

If they decide to try and get another earlier pick in, they can use their 3 x 2nd rounders they have next year. They could possibly now split pick 3.

Whatever trade they do, it's hard seeing them getting a good deal, there's blood in the water.

 

[Chase13]

well I didn't see the edited part of your post..yep it was a dig as I only got the first sentence and replied to that

Anyway, opinions be like...lets wait till draft night to see how the cards fall and if we take Rachelle, it will be because those in charge have seen thousands of minutes of him more than i have

we all get so emotionally invested in who we should take. Last year it was RT and most said a reach and by end of this season we know he will be a gun

trust those that see a lot more than us

they are in their job for a reason

if rachelle a reach u need wonder why he has been interviewed twice from the clubs with top 5 picks

he may be off board by our pick

entirely possible rachelle and Callaghan may not be available by our pic

if so maybe next best is Hobbs ward and again the melts

we need trust Hamish and crew

we see now McHenry Jones starting flourish

kids when drafted but Hamish saw when body develops they can be just as good as a draftee does well in year one ie rozzie

some just take a bit of time

 

[Drewie11]

Hawthorn instantly on the phone to Gold Coast. If GWS go for Andrew there will be a swap between Gold Coast and Hawthorn

 

[beagle2]

With the Greenwood situation, as Vadar pointed out, they will now need to live select with their pick 97.

If they decide to try and get another earlier pick in, they can use their 3 x 2nd rounders they have next year. They could possibly now split pick 3.

Whatever trade they do, it's hard seeing them getting a good deal, there's blood in the water.

no they don’t they can upgrade a rookie or take one of their academy players

 

[Peter Doherty]

no they don’t they can upgrade a rookie or take one of their academy players

I think they'll look to do something with those 3 future 2nd rounders.

 

[Mutineer]

2021 AFL Draft Preview: Adelaide

Adelaide comes into the 2021 AFL Draft with another high pick and plenty of local talent to consider down the line.

central.rookieme.com

 

[Crows I Am]

Neither have I but some of the Rachele potting on this board is next level, across the entirety of his junior career he clearly projects as the superior player prospect of his type in this draft and if Hamish thinks he's the best available talent when our pick comes around so be it.

On performance to this point the players that project as elite talents look almost certain to be off the board at our pick (2 not even available) after that it will likely get down to head recruiters preferences for next 5 or 6 picks and there's still going to be a raft of decent prospects after that in the 1st and 2nd rounds.

I remember quite a few posters were very critical of us taking of Thilthorpe with pick 1 before we drafted him last year. Didn't hear too much from them after he played his first game for us. If our recruiting team decide that Rachele is the best available at our pick, then I am happy to trust their decision.

 

[Crow till I die]

I remember quite a few posters were very critical of us taking of Thilthorpe with pick 1 before we drafted him last year. Didn't hear too much from them after he played his first game for us. If our recruiting team decide that Rachele is the best available at our pick, then I am happy to trust their decision.

in fact we never saw FAITH in that form again after draft night ...but if we do,I am waiting for my penfolds RWT

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Greenwood to the Roo’s , there goes Callaghan , GC can’t pass on him now.

View attachment 1280527

Sounds like Gold Coast aren't too upset at Norths move .....one could say, encouraging of the move

 

[Mutineer]

Courtesy of eDPS

 

[George Kramer]

So now down to live trading, reckon we will use pick 4

 

[WaynesWorld19]

When you have added Thor to that SuperCoach spread you can send it on if you like , Shinboner1 and crew will be doing cartwheels on the SC board

My, haven't NORTH really focused on their midfield ......last year they overlooked Logaan McDonald in a strange move to add Phillips ....they'll add JHF and now Greenwood

Their midfield is now batting big quality 9 deep

Might be too many sharing points for Greenwood to be considered IMO

Now look at Gold Coast .....Touk Miller, Anderson, Rowell, Hollands, and now in all probability Callaghan .....that's a power packed midfield with height, speed, and class

 

[Mutineer]

 

[Mutineer]

 

[rePeet]

LUKE NANKERVIS

Luke Nankervis: Apprentice jedi

www.sandringhamdragons.com.au

Anyone know much about this young fella? Ive got very good word that hes been interviewed multiple times by Adelaide, and has just had a sit down interview with them.

Smells like a Hamish special, maybe he will be our pick 75.

 

[Carmo]

For the draft watchers, how does Matt Roberts compare to Tom Powell? At a guess I'd say the similarities are that they weren't / aren't particularly athletic but very competent skill and footy iq wise. Main difference Roberts a bit taller but less solid and not quite as good at racking up disposals as Powell?

 

[GrommoT]

in fact we never saw FAITH in that form again after draft night ...but if we do,I am waiting for my penfolds RWT

Looks like you might be in luck