List Mgmt. 2021 Draft Picks part deux: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[CROUCH #2]

What do we do if,
Gws take Callaghan
Gold Coast take Rachele

Gibcus come the next best option in my opinion, but not a need

 

[Bearded Clam]

What do we do if,
Gws take Callaghan
Gold Coast take Rachele

Gibcus come the next best option in my opinion, but not a need

Gotta draft on talent though.. so we have to take him!.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Pick 1 - Jason Horne-Francis - North
Pick 2 - Nick Daicos - GWS bid
Pick 3 - Sam Sarcy - GWS bid
(Pick swap between GWS & Hawks - not sure what that looks like but i don't think GWS can do the deal with anyone else) *
Pick 4 - Hawthorn -Finn Callaghan
Pick 5 - Mac Andrew/Gibcus- Gold Coast
Pick 6 - Rachele/Ward/Hobbs/Erasmus - Adelaide **
Pick 7 - Mac Andrew/Gibcus - GWS

A couple of points to this:

* Not entirely sure Hawks would do this deal to begin with as they will need to cough up a fair bit. If GWS don't do it there's always the prospect of Hawks moving up to the Crows Pick 6 (with their 1st and a second) and taking whoever they want with who's remaining, my personal guess is Ward or Erasmus.
That being said, a fair few other clubs might look to do the same, particularly Richmond and Fremantle. Richmond if they want to guarantee Rachele/Ward/Hobbs/Erasmus, and Freo if they get spooked Erasmus will go a little earlier.

** On the flip side to that, clubs may be thinking that players like Hobbs/Erasmus aren't on our radar because they don't fill a need. They might simply sit back, see who we take and get whoever's left. My personal preference is for an outside midfielder with some bursting speed, or a small forward (this has been mentioned several times by our recruiters). Neither of those players fit that bill.

I take a lot from eDPS' draft ratings, and i'm worried that come Pick 6 no one comes for our selection for us to split, and we'll end up taking either someone who's not rated at that pick (Rachele/Ward), or someone who's 'best available' but doesn't fill a need (Hobbs/Gibcus/Erasmus)

If we manage to avoid that scenario either through a trade down, or IF someone like Callaghan falls to our pick then i think it'll be an overall success, but i'm definitely seeing some red flags already.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Gotta draft on talent though.. so we have to take him!.

I think the idea of drafting on pure talent is a little outdated. Clubs ARE to some degree drafting for needs these days.

There's drafting on best available, and there's drafting a KPD when we currently have a development logjam in that position. We won't be taking a KPD, even if they're best available at that pick.

 

[Mutineer]

I take a lot from eDPS' draft ratings, and i'm worried that come Pick 6 no one comes for our selection for us to split, and we'll end up taking either someone who's not rated at that pick (Rachele/Ward), or someone who's 'best available' but doesn't fill a need (Hobbs/Gibcus/Erasmus)

If we manage to avoid that scenario either through a trade down, or IF someone like Callaghan falls to our pick then i think it'll be an overall success, but i'm definitely seeing some red flags already.

Not rated by who exactly?

Hamish will have his draft board talent rankings set probably close to the final document today with only minor adjustments contingent on late interviews with players, their families and coaches.....guarantee he won't be looking at Big Footy or media rankings,

 

[Bearded Clam]

I think the idea of drafting on pure talent is a little outdated. Clubs ARE to some degree drafting for needs these days.

There's drafting on best available, and there's drafting a KPD when we currently have a development logjam in that position. We won't be taking a KPD, even if they're best available at that pick.

I just think we have been undertaking our rebuild the right way so far.. by getting our KPD and KPF stocks sorted first so we now have Butts, Mcasey and guys like murray down back to build around and we have TT and Fog up forward to build around.. KPP take longer to develop so its good we’ve started the rebuild by aquiring them..

We have some great options on wing/half back

Now its time to get the midfield sorted.

all the smaller pieces like the small forwards /small defenders are Icing on the cake.. none of it works without that elite engine room.

our midfield is garbage. We need to invest in it immediately.

if we werent rebuilding and were instead a finals contender.. sure, you can be a little but extravagant with your first eg. dees with Pickett because your midfield is set.

 

[DJ75]

Not rated by who exactly?

Hamish will have his draft board talent rankings set probably close to the final document today with only minor adjustments contingent on late interviews with players, their families and coaches.....guarantee he won't be looking at Big Footy or media rankings,

One thing we know about Hamish is that he definitely doesn't settle for group think. He has his own talent list and he will pick the next player on his list regardless of where others seem to think the player rates.

 

[Danger in Texas]

all the smaller pieces like the small forwards /small defenders are Icing on the cake.. none of it works without that elite engine room.

I agree that an elite engine room is needed. All the best teams have one. We have a bit of a start in that regard, but we need more midfield talent

I’m not sure small forwards are icing on the cake, though. Once again, most great teams have at least one high scoring small forward as an important part of their forward line, whether they be a crumbing or a marking type. The only instances where this isn’t really the case is if your team has two absolutely top tier KPFs, like Hawkins/Cameron and Lynch/Riewoldt, and considering it doesn’t look like Fogarty is going to be THAT good, a dynamic small forward is integral for us to have. What better way than to grab the best one in the draft pool?

Midfield-wise, I’d look to trade in our 2022 2nd to this year’s early 2nd round and grab a Knevitt type, as well as use next year’s first on a midfielder. That should hopefully give us a good enough midfield base to work with. If we’re zoned in on Rachele with 6, I don’t see it as a bad thing at all

 

[Thetrader15]

I agree that an elite engine room is needed. All the best teams have one. We have a bit of a start in that regard, but we need more midfield talent

I’m not sure small forwards are icing on the cake, though. Once again, most great teams have at least one high scoring small forward as an important part of their forward line, whether they be a crumbing or a marking type. The only instances where this isn’t really the case is if your team has two absolutely top tier KPFs, like Hawkins/Cameron and Lynch/Riewoldt, and considering it doesn’t look like Fogarty is going to be THAT good, a dynamic small forward is integral for us to have. What better way than to grab the best one in the draft pool?

Midfield-wise, I’d look to trade in our 2022 2nd to this year’s early 2nd round and grab a Knevitt type, as well as use next year’s first on a midfielder. That should hopefully give us a good enough midfield base to work with. If we’re zoned in on Rachele with 6, I don’t see it as a bad thing at all

Only issue is that if we are always going with our talent list, what if the talent order says we should take a KPP at our first pick next year...similar to what may happen this year.

I think you 90% of the time take the next best talent, but if the talk of picks 4-10 are quite even this year, then it's the year to increase the rating of need above talent on your Kepner-Tregoe model.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Not rated by who exactly?

Hamish will have his draft board talent rankings set probably close to the final document today with only minor adjustments contingent on late interviews with players, their families and coaches.....guarantee he won't be looking at Big Footy or media rankings,

Absolutely, and your opinion won't be amongst them either, but the general consensus from people that watch a lot more junior footy than you, or that are close enough to selectors to get a better idea than most, is that Pick 6 is a bit too high for Rachele as 'best available' (Twomey 8, eDPS 14)

My preference is to obviously try and get a 'best available' selection that also fits a need, as much as every other club is looking to do the same, i'm just worried that our chances to do so are a bit more limited than others.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Your correct with your comment regarding comparisons are always far off however I think there is a good purpose & reason for player comparisons in player pre-draft assessments.

I would welcome more comparisons & feel we should be more created and assess more hybrid comparisons or best case/worst case such as:

Neil Erasmus is hybrid comparison:
Matthew Priddis through the Midfield with the leading patterns and contested marking skills of Jack Gunston

BEST CASE: Matthew Priddis (Taller)
WORST CASE: Hugh Greenwood (at his best)

The comparisons though have to be realistic ...otherwise you think you're getting a Mercedes and a Holden rolls

Erasmus is so far removed from a Priddis comparison .....think a better or same Kyle Langford

 

[Mutineer]

Absolutely, and your opinion won't be amongst them either, but the general consensus from people that watch a lot more junior footy than you, or that are close enough to selectors to get a better idea than most, is that Pick 6 is a bit too high for Rachele as 'best available' (Twomey 8, eDPS 14)

My preference is to obviously try and get a 'best available' selection that also fits a need, as much as every other club is looking to do the same, i'm just worried that our chances to do so are a bit more limited than others.

Like I said whilst the guys you mention follow the draft closely they are not Hamish Ogilvie or any of his scouts so in the grand scale of where Hamish rates the players their ratings mean nought and that's not a slight on either guy by the way.. I'm sure eDPS watches more junior footy than me, Knighta I'm not so sure that's the case these days.

One things almost for certain I watch a shedload more than you and most on this board with some exceptions possibly.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Not rated by who exactly?

Hamish will have his draft board talent rankings set probably close to the final document today with only minor adjustments contingent on late interviews with players, their families and coaches.....guarantee he won't be looking at Big Footy or media rankings,

Hamish has said he finalises his Draft Board towards the end of the week, for presentation and ratification with the Coaches over the weekend .....that was his schedule last year anyway

 

[Mego Red]

He does and there's at least a 50/50 chance he'll be there at #33, his name is Ned Long.

There's also Kade Dittmar late/rookie that is already 186cm 86kg

If he WAS the player that Bearded Clam was describing, he wouldn't be there at 33, would he?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I’m not sure small forwards are icing on the cake, though. Once again, most great teams have at least one high scoring small forward as an important part of their forward line, whether they be a crumbing or a marking type.

Yes they are .....who was the champion small fwd for RICH's 3 flags ?

Luke Bruest absolutely a key cog at Hawks .....and Akermanis was a key to BRIS's flags ......but you'd still have to admit it was the Hawks and Brisbanes midfield stars of Hodge, Rioli, Mitchell, Lewis, Burgoyne, Black, Voss, Power, and Lappin were the prime movers

 

[Mutineer]

If he WAS the player that Bearded Clam was describing, he wouldn't be there at 33, would he?

I give little credence to posters that continually ascribe to our players or any player for that matter as being garbage.

One only has to look at his monotonous potting of Ben Keays.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Like I said whilst the guys you mention follow the draft closely they are not Hamish Ogilvie or any of his scouts so in the grand scale of where Hamish rates the players their ratings mean nought and that's not a slight on either guy by the way.. I'm sure eDPS watches more junior footy than me, Knighta I'm not so sure that's the case these days.

One things almost for certain I watch a shedload more than you and most on this board with some exceptions possibly.

I didn't mean to hurt your feelings, Mutineer

I didn't quote Knightmare for that specific reason, and I never made out to presume what Hamish Ogilvie will do, or will not do on draft day, or what his talent order is.

The general consensus from those ITK that I respect and follow on these boards points to Rachele being early at Pick 6.

You could literally respond to anyone having an opinion on this draft thread with 'you're not Hamish Ogilvie, you don't know what's going to happen draft day...'

I swear your epitaph is going to read '....i've seen more of these kids than anyone else on these draft boards!'

Anyone for a Mutineer drinking game/bingo before/on draft night for all the usual draft high-horse comments from him?

 

[Mutineer]

I didn't mean to hurt your feelings, Mutineer

I didn't quote Knightmare for that specific reason, and I never made out to presume what Hamish Ogilvie will do, or will not do on draft day, or what his talent order is.

The general consensus from those ITK that I respect and follow on these boards points to Rachele being early at Pick 6.

You could literally respond to anyone having an opinion on this draft thread with 'you're not Hamish Ogilvie, you don't know what's going to happen draft day...'

I swear your epitaph is going to read '....i've seen more of these kids than anyone else on these draft boards!'

Anyone for a Mutineer drinking game/bingo before/on draft night for all the usual draft high-horse comments from him?

No way your insignificant ramblings on this board would hurt my feeling coming from a lightweight like you so don't be taking any personal credit for something you'll never achieve.

 

[Mutineer]

I wonder if the AFL will provide some video footage of today's big training session at Trevor Barker Oval at 2 PM with 52 Vic Metro/Vic Country draftees taking part?

UPDATE: Vic draft guns strut their stuff on training track

Recruiters to take one last look at the state's talented youngsters ahead of next week's NAB AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

TRAINING DAY: Vic draft guns to hit Trevor Barker Oval for one last skills session
Recruiters to take one last look at the state's talented youngsters ahead of next week's NAB AFL Draft
By Riley Beveridge - 1 hr

A COLLECTION of Victoria's best draft prospects will gather at Sandringham's Trevor Barker Oval today, with club recruiters set to get one last look at the state's talented youngsters ahead of next week's NAB AFL Draft.

There are 52 players set to take part in the session, made up of prospects from both Vic Metro and Vic Country, with the group headlined by top-five hopefuls like Nick Daicos, Sam Darcy, Josh Rachele and Ben Hobbs.

The training session has been organised by the AFL to give clubs one final opportunity to put the state's best draft prospects through their paces, following another season that has been heavily interrupted by Victoria's COVID-19 situation.

 

[Trigger13]

Worst midfield in the comp by a country mile ?? Well no, I agree it's not great but it's not the worst. You do have an irrational hatred of Ben Keays.

You've also got to stop looking at who's in there now and look toward the names of who are going to be in there in years to come.

If Rachele is the best player available then you draft him, if he's not then you don't.

All the mids around that pick have queries on their games or don't fit this "big bodied" portion of our equation.

I’m sorry, but we def do have the worst midfield in the comp.

 

[UcantCme]

AFL obviously loves the click bait however it seems a long road to draft day

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[TheVelourFog]

I didn't mean to hurt your feelings, Mutineer

I didn't quote Knightmare for that specific reason, and I never made out to presume what Hamish Ogilvie will do, or will not do on draft day, or what his talent order is.

The general consensus from those ITK that I respect and follow on these boards points to Rachele being early at Pick 6.

You could literally respond to anyone having an opinion on this draft thread with 'you're not Hamish Ogilvie, you don't know what's going to happen draft day...'

I swear your epitaph is going to read '....i've seen more of these kids than anyone else on these draft boards!'

Anyone for a Mutineer drinking game/bingo before/on draft night for all the usual draft high-horse comments from him?

Does it really matter though if some people online think that Rachele is a slight reach at that stage of the draft? If that's who we want that's who we should get.

Doedee was considered a massive reach at his spot and people on this board were furious we didn't select Burton instead. I know who I would rather have now.
From memory I think the Bulldogs took Bont earlier than people predicted but I'm sure they're happy with that. In terms of small forwards Pickett was seen as a bit of a reach by those online a couple of years ago. I'm sure Melbourne are happy with him.

And by the sounds of things in terms of interviews from multiple clubs with picks around ours it seems that is the range clubs rate Rachele in.

 

[DJ75]

I wonder if the AFL will provide some video footage of today's big training session at Trevor Barker Oval at 2 PM with 52 Vic Metro/Vic Country draftees taking part?

UPDATE: Vic draft guns strut their stuff on training track

Recruiters to take one last look at the state's talented youngsters ahead of next week's NAB AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

TRAINING DAY: Vic draft guns to hit Trevor Barker Oval for one last skills session
Recruiters to take one last look at the state's talented youngsters ahead of next week's NAB AFL Draft
By Riley Beveridge - 1 hr

A COLLECTION of Victoria's best draft prospects will gather at Sandringham's Trevor Barker Oval today, with club recruiters set to get one last look at the state's talented youngsters ahead of next week's NAB AFL Draft.

There are 52 players set to take part in the session, made up of prospects from both Vic Metro and Vic Country, with the group headlined by top-five hopefuls like Nick Daicos, Sam Darcy, Josh Rachele and Ben Hobbs.

The training session has been organised by the AFL to give clubs one final opportunity to put the state's best draft prospects through their paces, following another season that has been heavily interrupted by Victoria's COVID-19 situation.

I genuinely wonder what the point of it is? Is a training session going to swing anyones mind on a draft pick? Surely not??

 

[Mutineer]

I genuinely wonder what the point of it is? Is a training sessions going to swing anyones mind on a draft pick? Surely not??

Fitness and skills might especially now they can't test the draftees skin folds and the limited data that's been available in that regard this season, likely there will also be interviews face to face which haven't been possible for interstate head recruiters or their teams a whole lot?

 

[Thetrader15]

Fitness and skills might especially now they can't test the draftees skin folds and the limited data that's been available in that regard this season, likely there will also be interviews face to face which haven't been possible for interstate head recruiters or their teams a whole lot?

when are they doing the vic combine?