Analysis 2021 draft thread

[briztoon]

Who gets in to the top 15?

Also I don't really care if draft watchers don't rate Van Rooyen. I do.

He didn’t mention names, but at a guess the first 15 names of his phantom form guide.

 

[pulpdriver]

He didn’t mention names, but at a guess the first 15 names of his phantom form guide.

No doubt anyone outside that will struggle at AFL level.

 

[briztoon]

Who gets in to the top 15?

Also I don't really care if draft watchers don't rate Van Rooyen. I do.

And btw I’d have either Van Rooyen or Wilmot at our second selection.

I probably rate others a little higher, but our second pick is a heavily needs influenced selection.

 

[briztoon]

No doubt anyone outside that will struggle at AFL level.

Now that’s just snarky.

 

[pulpdriver]

Now that’s just snarky.

I thought so but how else would you have replied to your response?

And btw I’d have either Van Rooyen or Wilmot at our second selection.

I probably rate others a little higher, but our second pick is a heavily needs influenced selection.

Basing off very limited vision and discussion but Wilmot seems to be rated very low for what he proposes to bring at AFL level. What's the deal there?

 

[mattsmob]

Goater or Sinn at our first pick. I believe neither make it to our first pick though.


The only thing with Johnson is that he’s not fast. But he’d combine very well with Robertson and Ashcroft as a future midfield combination. He’s sort of like a slower Bontempeli type of tall mid.

Not that quick but I think he moves better than he's given credit for, not explosive but is a very smooth mover and seems to cover the ground well including getting back into defence. I re-watched the Academy vs Geelong VFL game which was rough but he didn't look out of place in terms of athleticism. The other thing that has really impressed me is his contested marking which for a midfielder is very good, I don't think he'd have any problems starting his career on a flank. Of the likely options at our first pick I think he's the best.

 

[briztoon]

I thought so but how else would you have replied to your response?

You asked who the 15 were, I gave the only response I could, seeing as Twomey didn’t list them.

You could have talked about some the other prospects in the mix around our second pick and why you’d select Van Rooyen ahead of them.

There’s a couple I wouldn’t touch that get mentioned, like Arlo Draper or Matthew Roberts.

As for Wilmot, I believe it’s because he’s likely only a hbf’er at AFL level, while all the others have potential to play in the midfield. He’s on the smaller size (he’s also the youngest kid in the draft), and while he has good speed, decent ball use and defence, he’s not elite in any one category (well he might be elite in tenacity and defence).

 

[mattsmob]

As for Wilmot, I believe it’s because he’s likely only a hbf’er at AFL level, while all the others have potential to play in the midfield. He’s on the smaller size (he’s also the youngest kid in the draft), and while he has good speed, decent ball use and defence, he’s not elite in any one category (well he might be elite in tenacity and defence).

Agree on Wilmot, seems to have a lot of intangibles that'll make him a long time AFL player. He does a lot of the smart, safe, team-oriented things that doesn't necessarily make an individual stand out which could be why he's picked later in the first round. Feels inevitable that in 10 years time people will be asking why he wasn't taken earlier after a few guys above him don't turn out.

 

[pulpdriver]

You asked who the 15 were, I gave the only response I could, seeing as Twomey didn’t list them.

If I was snarky I apologise.

You could have talked about some the other prospects in the mix around our second pick and why you’d select Van Rooyen ahead of them.

How could I do that? I admitted I have seen very little of these kids but I do feel that the strongest gauge of developing KPs boils down to moments. KPs that stand up in big games as kids almost always develop into solid AFL players and Van Rooyen looked fantastic the whole game. Yeah, he quited down after Bazzo was moved to him but I went nuts, as a neutral when he took that mark being double teamed then kicked the goal. Massive foundation to build on.

There’s a couple I wouldn’t touch that get mentioned, like Arlo Draper or Matthew Roberts.

What's wrong with Draper?

As for Wilmot, I believe it’s because he’s likely only a hbf’er at AFL level, while all the others have potential to play in the midfield. He’s on the smaller size (he’s also the youngest kid in the draft), and while he has good speed, decent ball use and defence, he’s not elite in any one category (well he might be elite in tenacity and defence).

None of that even remotely diminishes my rating of him or clarifies why he is not more highly rated.

 

[briztoon]

What's wrong with Draper?

Nothing if you want a HFF. I question his ability to play through the midfield at AFL level.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I think it's important to consider how many midfielders we'll have going forward and not draft too many. There's no point in ending up like GWS who kept drafting midfielders in the first round year after year and then saw many of them walk away for peanuts because they got no playing time (eg Caldwell, Hately, Bonar). After Robbo, Neale and Lyons are gone, what will the midfield look like? McCluggage, Berry, Sharp, Robertson, Bailey, Ashcroft, maybe Fletcher? Rayner will rotate in there too. Do we really need more?

 

[briztoon]

I think it's important to consider how many midfielders we'll have going forward and not draft too many. There's no point in ending up like GWS who kept drafting midfielders in the first round year after year and then saw many of them walk away for peanuts because they got no playing time (eg Caldwell, Hately, Bonar). After Robbo, Neale and Lyons are gone, what will the midfield look like? McCluggage, Berry, Sharp, Robertson, Bailey, Ashcroft, maybe Fletcher? Rayner will rotate in there too. Do we really need more?

Yes.

 

[mpal6]

I think it's important to consider how many midfielders we'll have going forward and not draft too many. There's no point in ending up like GWS who kept drafting midfielders in the first round year after year and then saw many of them walk away for peanuts because they got no playing time (eg Caldwell, Hately, Bonar). After Robbo, Neale and Lyons are gone, what will the midfield look like? McCluggage, Berry, Sharp, Robertson, Bailey, Ashcroft, maybe Fletcher? Rayner will rotate in there too. Do we really need more?

Yep, Rich came in as a mid but ended up being our distributor. We need to continue getting midfielders but the ones who are good kicks with vision and who can go to the middle or the backline potentially. Contested ball goes without saying as that's pretty much the baseline non-negotiable we have been using lately.

 

[Quigley]

I will be very surprised if JVR does not go in the top 20. I see him as a back and he does not have too many weaknesses apart from not having played there a great deal. When he did he dominated a more fancied SA line up.

Most of the draft watchers I speak with seem to think there is a lot of evenness from 5 to 20. I would agree and think there will be some nice talent where we are picking.

 

[Quigley]

I think it's important to consider how many midfielders we'll have going forward and not draft too many. There's no point in ending up like GWS who kept drafting midfielders in the first round year after year and then saw many of them walk away for peanuts because they got no playing time (eg Caldwell, Hately, Bonar). After Robbo, Neale and Lyons are gone, what will the midfield look like? McCluggage, Berry, Sharp, Robertson, Bailey, Ashcroft, maybe Fletcher? Rayner will rotate in there too. Do we really need more?

We do need to continue to add although to the depth and quality of the unit especially if some do not come on as we hope. We are well placed though and have the luxury of not needing to rush. If we add prospects we like who add to the mix we should do it without neglecting other areas.

One thing I think of this group is it might be the most skilled group in the 10-20 area that I have ever seen. There is just a lot of guys whose skills look to be right up there. That can only be good for us as that is an area where we still need to build through the middle of the ground.

 

[BangyBangy]

I will be very surprised if JVR does not go in the top 20. I see him as a back and he does not have too many weaknesses apart from not having played there a great deal. When he did he dominated a more fancied SA line up.

Most of the draft watchers I speak with seem to think there is a lot of evenness from 5 to 20. I would agree and think there will be some nice talent where we are picking.

Is there anyone rated in the top 20 that you wouldn't want Quigley ?

 

[RoyBoy17]

I like the look of Tom Brown from Murray Bushrangers. Would be a good get at pick 18. 186cm, good speed and has shown he can play half back and mid. Fits our needs for some speed and providing some run off half back. I think he could play next year. He was injured a little this year so he may not be as high on draft boards as she should be due to limited exposure compared to others. I have him ahead of Wilmot, Sinn and Chesser. Has accumulated more of the ball, tested well and shown ability through the mids compared with the others.

 

[mattsmob]

I think it's important to consider how many midfielders we'll have going forward and not draft too many. There's no point in ending up like GWS who kept drafting midfielders in the first round year after year and then saw many of them walk away for peanuts because they got no playing time (eg Caldwell, Hately, Bonar). After Robbo, Neale and Lyons are gone, what will the midfield look like? McCluggage, Berry, Sharp, Robertson, Bailey, Ashcroft, maybe Fletcher? Rayner will rotate in there too. Do we really need more?

As long as the mids we’re drafting can do multiple things on the field I don’t believe it’ll be an issue and as others have mentioned the mids in this draft are pretty versatile. The problem with GWS was they had too many pure mid only players. It’s the main issue with Ely and Matho for us, they can’t do much else and we already have Neale and Lyons in the team.

 

[Quigley]

Is there anyone rated in the top 20 that you wouldn't want Quigley ?

I have not seen enough to really be too negative but personally I have concerns about Roberts, Rachele and Hobbs. Wanganeen-Milera looks great but I wonder about how he would fit into our side and whether he will get enough ball.

 

[briztoon]

I will be very surprised if JVR does not go in the top 20. I see him as a back and he does not have too many weaknesses apart from not having played there a great deal. When he did he dominated a more fancied SA line up.

Most of the draft watchers I speak with seem to think there is a lot of evenness from 5 to 20. I would agree and think there will be some nice talent where we are picking.

SA weren’t the more fancied team. They have next to no KPP’s in their top age group. Horne-Francis is the only SA kid rated ahead of 3 or 4 of WA’s top prospects.

Most draft watchers expected WA to win comfortably because of the number and depth of good KPP’s they have this year.

 

[jjami15]

As long as the mids we’re drafting can do multiple things on the field I don’t believe it’ll be an issue and as others have mentioned the mids in this draft are pretty versatile. The problem with GWS was they had too many pure mid only players. It’s the main issue with Ely and Matho for us, they can’t do much else and we already have Neale and Lyons in the team.

There is a differentiation between the term mid that needs to be made. You are correct in that there should be a versatility to their game that is required. Clubs have identified that you can only carry two pure inside types and then the rest need to be a bit more dimensional. Club earlier stated that they were look for run and carry types. There wasn’t exact clarification around player position and majority of us here possibly thought running hbf. It might be this type of player however I think it is more of a wing type player. Now using the term wing one should take into account wether they can win their own ball. There is enough data to show those in their draft year who can rack up big numbers but win their own ball in contest struggle at AFL level.

 

[Quigley]

SA weren’t the more fancied team. They have next to no KPP’s in their top age group. Horne-Francis is the only SA kid rated ahead of 3 or 4 of WA’s top prospects.

Most draft watchers expected WA to win comfortably because of the number and depth of good KPP’s they have this year.

Going into the game SA did not have much in the way of KP but were expected to dominate through the middle of the ground and had had Horne-Francis, Draper and Roberts all being talked as top 10 picks. There were also a good number of smalls who people were thinking could move up the draft. WA also had Erasmus out which teams thought would hurt them a lot. From what I saw I think most expected SA to get the win including from memory the commentary team for the first game.

 

[briztoon]

Going into the game SA did not have much in the way of KP but were expected to dominate through the middle of the ground and had had Horne-Francis, Draper and Roberts all being talked as top 10 picks. There were also a good number of smalls who people were thinking could move up the draft. WA also had Erasmus out which teams thought would hurt them a lot. From what I saw I think most expected SA to get the win including from memory the commentary team for the first game.

OK. That was very different from the general discussion on the draft board. I checked the game thread on the draft board, and all the forum draft watchers picked WA to win, just a few randoms picked SA.

I know Roberts was talked about as a possible top 10 pick early in the year, but he had been sliding on quite a few draft watchers boards before the first WA v SA game.

 

[Quigley]

OK. That was very different from the general discussion on the draft board. I checked the game thread on the draft board, and all the forum draft watchers picked WA to win, just a few randoms picked SA.

I know Roberts was talked about as a possible top 10 pick early in the year, but he had been sliding on quite a few draft watchers boards before the first WA v SA game.

Some SA guys are still very keen on Roberts based on his early season midfield form and think that the move into a forward role in the SANFL disrupted his season and if he is plugged full time back into the midfield role he will end up one of the better mids in the draft. A bit of wishful thinking I reckon but there you go.

 

[briztoon]

Some SA guys are still very keen on Roberts based on his early season midfield form and think that the move into a forward role in the SANFL disrupted his season and if he is plugged full time back into the midfield role he will end up one of the better mids in the draft. A bit of wishful thinking I reckon but there you go.

I have read some similar comments from SA posters, and have just put it down to SA bias.