Analysis 2021 draft thread

[blueiris]

What kind of player is Triffett?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I see your point but I'd still be pretty keen to get a kpp this year. Particularly if he comes on well I don't think it'd be that hard for him to find gametime, if we look at this season just gone he'd probably play ahead of Fullarton for most the season and also ahead of Payne in the finals.

So in essence they'd be depth players relying on injuries for game time, as Fullarton isn't a regular starter. But you can't assure players of game time if they're depth. We could easily have a CCJ situation where the veterans ahead of them stay fit for years.

I'm not saying never draft a KPP, I'm saying wait a couple of years so the timing will be right for them to take over from Daniher and Adams. Or trade one in the same way North just did.

Apart from the midfield I think it's our main area that needs topping up on our list.

Half-back? Wing?

 

[Dalions]

I'm not saying never draft a KPP, I'm saying wait a couple of years so the timing will be right for them to take over from Daniher and Adams. Or trade one in the same way North just did.

History will tell you that trading in KPP talent is easier said than done.
Teams do not let them go, especially the ones they want to keep.

 

[mattsmob]

So in essence they'd be depth players relying on injuries for game time, as Fullarton isn't a regular starter. But you can't assure players of game time if they're depth. We could easily have a CCJ situation where the veterans ahead of them stay fit for years.

I'm not saying never draft a KPP, I'm saying wait a couple of years so the timing will be right for them to take over from Daniher and Adams. Or trade one in the same way North just did.


Half-back? Wing?

I agree they wouldn't be a regular starter unless we get a Bazzo/key defender who in a year or two I could see being our 3rd tall defender if he comes on but I think they'll get enough gametime throughout a season to develop and give them a taste of senior footy.

I believe half-backs/wings are easier to find and probably less important than getting really high-quality young mids on the list. Ideally the young mids are versatile to start on a flank or wing as well, having said that I do really like Wilmot but depending on who's available probably wouldn't be my first choice at 18.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

But in relation to the rest of your post, if you get good enough kids on your list the Coaching staff will find a way to get them games.

For a smaller player, I would agree, because they're generally more versatile. But there are few talls with the skills and agility to move into completely different positions. I could see McStay moving to the wing perhaps, but outside of that I wouldn't be playing any of our talls anywhere outside key positions and the ruck. And instead of doing that to accommodate another KPF, we could just draft a proper wing player.

Melbourne could fit Luke Jackson into their side alongside Gawn because they didn't have the same key forward talent that we do. While I can't say I'm a draft expert or anything, from the footage I have watched of the late first-round KPPs, none of them are a Luke Jackson-level talent. Of course, if the club draft one of them, I'll back them to the hilt, but it doesn't seem like the best idea in terms of list profile and age.

Personally I don’t honk the hype over CCJ is warranted. There were opportunities over the last couple of years where they could have given him games and chose not to. So either they think he is not good enough or he was not ready.

They did offer him a two year contract, and this is after he'd cost them $100 000 and public embarrassment for the kebab shop brawl in 2020. I'm not saying he's a world-beater off the back of 9 games, I'm saying Richmond invested a lot into him (first-round pick, four years on the list) for little return and didn't get the chance to see the best of him. KPPs usually only come into their own in their mid-20s.

AFL news: Richmond Tigers, Callum Coleman-Jones contract, Caroline Wilson, Covid breach

 

[Johnny Bananas]

History will tell you that trading in KPP talent is easier said than done.
Teams do not let them go, especially the ones they want to keep.

Plenty of them move around by trade or free agency. Joe Daniher, Ben Brown, Rory Lobb, possibly Rory Lobb again, CCJ, Chol, Wright, Lynch and plenty more I've forgotten.

 

[mattsmob]

Plenty of them move around by trade or free agency. Joe Daniher, Ben Brown, Rory Lobb, possibly Rory Lobb again, CCJ, Chol, Wright, Lynch and plenty more I've forgotten.

Ideally we're in the same position we are now with a top 4 team and because of that a tight salary cap, how many of those guys could we afford? I think our best bet is to try and bring one through the draft and develop them for a couple years.

 

[Dalions]

Plenty of them move around by trade or free agency. Joe Daniher, Ben Brown, Rory Lobb, possibly Rory Lobb again, CCJ, Chol, Wright, Lynch and plenty more I've forgotten.

Yep, as I said the ‘good ones’ are very rare.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Ideally we're in the same position we are now with a top 4 team and because of that a tight salary cap, how many of those guys could we afford?

With Daniher retiring? We could afford anyone on that level. Before that point we'd only need depth, and depth doesn't cost as much.

I think our best bet is to try and bring one through the draft and develop them for a couple years.

I didn't suggest any different, I just believe it may be a bit too early to draft them right now. Five years is not a couple of years.

 

[mattsmob]

With Daniher retiring? We could afford anyone on that level. Before that point we'd only need depth, and depth doesn't cost as much.


I didn't suggest any different, I just believe it may be a bit too early to draft them right now. Five years is not a couple of years.

With Daniher retiring I'd suggest his money is going to guys already on our list that will need upgrades, I agree we need depth before that point and I'd rather a first round KPP talent as depth over a fringe 28 year old, especially if list sizes don't increase.

I think the main thing we disagree on is how big a need is a young KPP, I don't feel too strongly either way but I'd rather get one in now with the hope they can be our first player in if one of our key talls go down, on top of that if they're good enough I could see a spot for them in our defence.

 

[Nunez]

I trust our list managers to make the right call. IMO now feels like a good time to invest in a young tall, but equally one that we deem worth while needs to be available.

 

[briztoon]

I’m another who agrees 2023 makes more sense to me to look for KPP talent via the draft.

Of course it depends who is available at our picks this year, but I haven’t been overly impressed with this years KPP prospects. Particularly looking at a lot of the WA kids height. I really want 200cm+ KPP’s if they’re going to be a first or second defender or forward.

There’s more and more of the mobile, athletic 200cm kids coming in who are going to be difficult matchups in the near future.

Sam Darcy who’s going father son to the Bulldogs is reportedly 204cm with close to the athleticism and leap of the King twins. Even Harris is going to struggle with a player that size.

I can make a case for Mac Andrew as a future ruck forward, who might possibly contribute around the ground as well.

But 195cm, not very athletic kids look like a reach in the first round of the draft.

 

[jackess]

How many KPPs have we taken in the first 2 rounds since the 2013 draft? 1, Hipwood in 7 drafts

 

[bungalow_bill]

Schache

 

[blueiris]

Schache

Don’t mention the War

 

[Johnny Bananas]

With Daniher retiring I'd suggest his money is going to guys already on our list that will need upgrades, I agree we need depth before that point and I'd rather a first round KPP talent as depth over a fringe 28 year old, especially if list sizes don't increase.

Would you rather a first round KPP talent if they leave after four years due to a lack of opportunity?

 

[Nunez]

Would you rather a first round Midfield talent if they leave after four years due to a lack of opportunity?

Edited to show there is literally no difference between the two. Players who don't get opportunities will always be tempted to leave. It's up to the club to develop them and show them a future that they want to stay to be a part of.

 

[mattsmob]

Would you rather a first round KPP talent if they leave after four years due to a lack of opportunity?

My view is if they're good enough they'll get games. Worse case scenario is even if they do want to leave after 4 years they'll still be worth more than a 28 year old that can't regularly lock down a spot.

 

[RoyBoy17]

Hi all, I don't mean to take this thread in a different direction, and first just want to say thanks again to all the draft watchers for their thoughts on good picks for us this year.

I really like the look of Wilmot. He gives me Ridley vibes in his ability to intercept but also use the ball. He could even grow a bit more. Really hope we get him at 20 to help Kiddy with offensive transition.

For 16, it looks like we'll have a bunch of good mid/flanker types to choose from. They all seem to have decent disposal and, avoiding Roberts, have good speed. So my question is, what traits do we most need other than those two, in the player we pick?
Is it elite speed like Chesser, ball winning like Johnson, or skill and dual sided skills like Sonsie?

I feel like Goater and Sinn will be gone, but any of the players around our pick could be great for us if they develop well. So my other question is, who would be available at our later picks that would pair well with our 1st round options to hopefully help them settle and flourish in the vein of Dev and Prior?

Thanks again, love all your work

Would be after a mix of height, speed and good ability to play behind the ball. So maybe Tom Brown as I think he will be available at 18. I would double down on this type of player. Not a fan of players that don’t accumulate the ball at junior level so I have question marks on Sinn and Chessar given that they have played mid time as well. We have a lot of guys that already drift in and out of games. So ball winning players like Johnson would be handy to ease the load on Neale and Lyons going forward. Those two I mentioned could probably get a game next year too. As for the last pick I’m hoping we pick up a mature age player. Maybe an intercept defender. Gardiner, Payne, Andrews and Adams have all had injury issues the last couple of years so I think bolstering this area is important

 

[briztoon]

Would be after a mix of height, speed and good ability to play behind the ball. So maybe Tom Brown as I think he will be available at 18. I would double down on this type of player. Not a fan of players that don’t accumulate the ball at junior level so I have question marks on Sinn and Chessar given that they have played mid time as well. We have a lot of guys that already drift in and out of games. So ball winning players like Johnson would be handy to ease the load on Neale and Lyons going forward. Those two I mentioned could probably get a game next year too. As for the last pick I’m hoping we pick up a mature age player. Maybe an intercept defender. Gardiner, Payne, Andrews and Adams have all had injury issues the last couple of years so I think bolstering this area is important

Ssshhh don’t mention my smokey for the BigFooty Phantom Draft.

If what’ve a knock on Sinn or Chesser for lack of accumulation, you’d have the same concern with Brown.

A lot of the Vic boys had injury interrupted seasons, including Brown, Chesser and Sinn. If you want to see how they went, check out their U16 National carnival. That’s the best guide we have on a lot of the Vic kids.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Edited to show there is literally no difference between the two. Players who don't get opportunities will always be tempted to leave. It's up to the club to develop them and show them a future that they want to stay to be a part of.

There is a difference between the two, actually. Talls in general are a lot less versatile. Some with good endurance can move to the wing, but they largely stay in tall positions. Sure, there are some players like Lyons or Ely Smith who are pure midfielders and not useful elsewhere, but many midfielders can play half-forward, wing or half-back. There is generally more opportunity for them to crack the 22 due to the multiple positions available.

Also, you're neglecting to consider the state of our roster. We're fully stocked for starting talls for the next four seasons, whereas we aren't necessarily in other parts of the ground, most notably half-back and wing.

 

[briztoon]

There is a difference between the two, actually. Talls in general are a lot less versatile. Some with good endurance can move to the wing, but they largely stay in tall positions. Sure, there are some players like Lyons or Ely Smith who are pure midfielders and not useful elsewhere, but many midfielders can play half-forward, wing or half-back. There is generally more opportunity for them to crack the 22 due to the multiple positions available.

Also, you're neglecting to consider the state of our roster. We're fully stocked for starting talls for the next four seasons, whereas we aren't necessarily in other parts of the ground, most notably half-back and wing.

We’re not that stocked for KPP’s. We could use at least another tall forward or tall defender in our reserves.

But there might not be much opportunity for them, unless we have a long injury list to our best 22 KPP’s.

 

[Nunez]

There is a difference between the two, actually. Talls in general are a lot less versatile. Some with good endurance can move to the wing, but they largely stay in tall positions. Sure, there are some players like Lyons or Ely Smith who are pure midfielders and not useful elsewhere, but many midfielders can play half-forward, wing or half-back. There is generally more opportunity for them to crack the 22 due to the multiple positions available.

Also, you're neglecting to consider the state of our roster. We're fully stocked for starting talls for the next four seasons, whereas we aren't necessarily in other parts of the ground, most notably half-back and wing.

Of course there is a difference between the two types of players - I'm not denying that. The point was: players who are devoid of opportunity will more often than not look at their opinions.

In the last final of the year, we played a key position defender as our key forward. I'm neglecting absolutely nothing.

 

[mattsmob]

We’re not that stocked for KPP’s. We could use at least another tall forward or tall defender in our reserves.

But there might not be much opportunity for them, unless we have a long injury list to our best 22 KPP’s.

Let's say JVR, Bazzo and Wilmot (or someone I haven't mentioned that could be there) are available at our second pick, who are you taking? Obviously who we take with our first pick impacts this but let's ignore that for now.

 

[Dalions]

Not sure we will have the room for him this year but he has probably been the best of the Academy boys this year.