Analysis 2021 draft thread

[scoman]

On the talls in the VFL subject, it is still important to have some balance there to ensure players get a chance to develop. At the moment there is likely to be a bit of a shortage of available ruck time for Fullerton, Lane and Smith if everyone is fit and healthy and also a bit of a shortage of key backs. Now as some have mentioned we may be able to counter that with a KPD or two signed to the VFL team and still every chance we grab a tall with one of.our picks.

But if we don't we end up in a situation where guys like Michaels, Answerth, Prior etc have to play tall and match up on other teams key forwards. This might sound like a good challenge on the odd occasion, but eventually it harms those players development, especially if like last year we struggle against more mature VFL sides. On the flip side with so many ruck/ forwards on the list it's difficult to develop as a ruckman if you are only getting 30-40 minutes a game in your natural position.

I'm sure the club has a plan and they normally do. Think Walker, Eagles and Ballenden moving into defence and the likes of young Smith playing almost permanently forward.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

If anyone is following the BigFooty phantom draft, all the top tier mids and flankers went by pick 12 (pick 14 after matched bids).

The only KPP to go at a live selection before pick 12 was Josh Gibcus to GWS at 4, with Mac Andrew then going at 13 to GWS.

The Lions drafter took Amiss at 14 (16) as his best available talent still on board.

Van Rooyen, Wilmot and Chesser went in the 3 picks between our selections.

At 18 (20) the Lions took Mitch Owens, out of St Kilda’s NGA academy.

And for anyone interested, the BF member selecting for the Lions used to work in the SA U18 State & National talent pathways, and now writes for AFL Draft Central. He knows his stuff.

I can genuinely see something similar happening at the draft.

Clubs routinely have very different ratings of prospects to what BF and AFLDC experts have. Did a single person from either of those sites have Ryan Angwin as a first round pick last year?

I also don't think Freo are really going to pass on Amiss, Andrew and JVR twice. KPF is their biggest need.

 

[briztoon]

Clubs routinely have very different ratings of prospects to what BF and AFLDC experts have. Did a single person from either of those sites have Ryan Angwin as a first round pick last year?

I also don't think Freo are really going to pass on Amiss, Andrew and JVR twice. KPF is their biggest need.

Angwin was very much a needs based selection. It will be interesting to follow his career.

I agree 100% that the draft doesn’t play out as it has in the BF draft.

Still, it does somewhat align with what I’ve been saying for quite some time. In that the players I personally rate in the top 12, all went before our first selection.

It’s just something I’ve been hoping, that one of the players I personally have in my second tier slips to our first pick.

 

[briztoon]

Yep, those are all fair points. I still feel we are light for talls, outside of rucks. Who do we play in key positions in the VFL? Payne is really the only key defender now and there's no full time key forward, unless you consider Fullarton that. The rest of the tall forward spots will be occupied by ruckman. The balance just seems a little off.

Also, if a player is good enough they will force their way into the seniors. I love Joe, McStay and Hippy, but I think it's fair to say none of them are currently a top 10 key forward in the comp. JVR could come in and dominate and get to that level, who knows. In defence, I'm not ruling out Payne pushing someone like Gardiner or Adams out of the seniors as soon as next season. Probably won't happen, but it could. The competition for spots puts pressure on those in the seniors to maintain strong form. It's healthy. At the moment, there's no one in the reserves putting pressure on our forwards.

In regards to replacements for Zorko, we'd be hoping that's Ashcroft. Replacing Rich should be a priority though, I agree.

I don’t believe JVR will be a starting quality key forward at AFL level. He could make it as a second or third tall defender though.

I believe it gets lost a little, just how shallow this draft is for KPP’s, and in a more balanced draft, JVR would normally be an early to mid 20’s selection, and Bazzo a late 20’s selection.

If we we’re rating prospects purely on talent, with no regards to team needs, and potential long term impact at afl level, players like Tom Brown, Zac Taylor, Sam Butler, would round out the top 20, behind Wilmot and Chesser.

Mac Andrew and Jye Amiss just crack the top 15 as long term projects who have a high ceiling, but low floor.

 

[POBT]

Still, it does somewhat align with what I’ve been saying for quite some time. In that the players I personally rate in the top 12, all went before our first selection.

That's probably to be expected though. You engage with the people on the draft board a lot. It stands to reason that your opinion is going to be swayed by theirs (and vice versa). That there's a convergence of views is no great surprise. I think it's highly likely that the clubs will have differing views, to some extent anyway.

The other thing I've noticed is that, while everyone agrees there are "tiers" this year, there isn't necessarily consistency on who is in each tier. I therefore think the top end talent (other than the first few) runs a bit deeper than people think.

 

[mattsmob]

Still, it does somewhat align with what I’ve been saying for quite some time. In that the players I personally rate in the top 12, all went before our first selection.

I have a rough idea of who those 12 players are and I think it’s more than likely at least 1 will be there at our pick, with all the footy that’s been missed I could see a team or two taking someone expected to go a bit later.

 

[Dalions]

Herald Sun are doing a Mock Draft at around 1pm this afternoon.

 

[Section 5]

Draft combine results taken from below link to foxsports
Seeing it was a state based combine looks like the results have been thrown into the one pool ranking
So anything out in the open would have had different weather conditions

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/dr...e/news-story/b3fe5bf62cbce5dcebd7e414f3e97850


2km Time-Trial

1. Cooper Hamilton (Bendigo Pioneers/Vic Country) – 5:48

2. Hamish Sinnott (GWV Rebels/Vic Country) – 5:58

3. Mitchell Knevitt (Geelong Falcons/Vic Country) – 6:18

=4. Jamieson Ballantyne (GWV Rebels/Vic Country), Kai Lohmann (GWV Rebels/Vic Country) – 6:19

6. Corey Warner (East Fremantle) – 6:20

7. Shay Linke (Central District/SA) – 6:22

8. Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

(GWV Rebels) – 6:23

9. Jai Serong (Gippsland Power/Vic Country) – 6:24

10. Luca Whitelum (Central District/SA) – 6:26

2km Time-Trial (Vic Metro and NSW/ACT only – run tracked via Strava app)

1. Josh Ward (Northern Knights/Vic Metro) – 5:57

2. Josh Fahey (GWS Giants Academy) – 5:59

3. Ned Long (Northern Knights/Vic Metro) – 6:05

4. Karl Worner (Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro) – 6:07

=5. Blake Howes (Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro), Connor MacDonald (Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Metro) – 6:08

7. Finn Callaghan (Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro) – 6:10

8. Charlie Dean (Williamstown VFL) – 6:11

9. Jed Rule (Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro) – 6:13

10. Angus Anderson (Sydney Swans Academy) – 6:14

Agility

1. Alastair Lord (Norwood/SA) – 7.940 seconds

2. Bryce Watson (Swan Districts/WA) – 8.006 seconds

3. Matt Johnson (West Perth/WA) – 8.061 seconds

4. Jesse Motlop (South Fremantle/WA) – 8.063 seconds

5. Cooper Beecken (Glenelg/SA) – 8.070 seconds

6. Ronald Fejo Jnr (West Adelaide/NT) – 8.080 seconds

7. Arthur Jones (Claremont/WA) – 8.189 seconds

8. Cooper Murley (Norwood/SA) – 8.200 seconds

9. Toby Triffett (Brisbane Lions Academy/QLD) – 8.226 seconds

10. Judd Mcvee (East Fremantle/WA) – 8.238 seconds

20m Sprint

1. Harvey Harrison (North Adelaide/SA) – 2.845 seconds

2. Taj Woewodin (East Fremantle/WA) – 2.898 seconds

3. Luke Polson (Peel Thunder/WA) – 2.900 seconds

4. Hugh Stagg (Glenelg/SA) – 2.910 seconds

5. Noah Pegoraro (West Perth/WA) – 2.926 seconds

6. Bryce Watson (Swan Districts/WA) – 2.951 seconds

7. Brad Hough (Peel Thunder/WA) – 2.960 seconds

8. Corey Warner (East Fremantle/WA) – 2.969 seconds

9. Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

(GWV Rebels/Vic Country) – 2.974 seconds

10. Mitchell Knevitt (Geelong Falcons/Vic Country) – 2.976 seconds

Standing Vertical Jump

1. Corey Warner (East Fremantle/WA) – 76cm

=2. William Bella (Gold Coast Academy/QLD), Leek Alleer (Central District/SA), Noah Pegoraro (West Perth/WA) – 75cm

5. Lochlan Paton (West Pert//WA) – 73cm

=6. Tom Brown (West Perth/WA), Matt Johnson (West Perth/WA), Luke Polson (Peel Thunder/WA) – 72cm

=9. Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

(GWV Rebels/Vic Country), Richard Farmer (Subiaco/WA), Brady Hough (Peel Thunder/WA) – 71cm

Running Vertical Jump
1. Leek Alleer (Central District/SA) – 107cm
2. Corey Warner (East Fremantle/WA) – 100cm
3. Josh Gibcus (GWV Rebels/Vic Country) – 95cm
4. Jahmal Stretch (Claremont/WA) – 93cm
5. Noah Pegoraro (West Perth/WA) – 92cm
6. Tyler McGinniss (North Hobart/TAS) – 91cm
7. Matt Johnson (West Perth/WA) – 89cm
=8. Kai Lohmann (GWV Rebels/Vic Country), Luke Polson (Peel Thunder/WA) – 88cm
10. Sam Butler

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

(GWV Rebels/Vic Country) – 87cm

 

[briztoon]

Draft combine results taken from below link to foxsports
Seeing it was a state based combine looks like the results have been thrown into the one pool ranking
So anything out in the open would have had different weather conditions

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/dr...e/news-story/b3fe5bf62cbce5dcebd7e414f3e97850


2km Time-Trial

1. Cooper Hamilton (Bendigo Pioneers/Vic Country) – 5:48

2. Hamish Sinnott (GWV Rebels/Vic Country) – 5:58

3. Mitchell Knevitt (Geelong Falcons/Vic Country) – 6:18

=4. Jamieson Ballantyne (GWV Rebels/Vic Country), Kai Lohmann (GWV Rebels/Vic Country) – 6:19

6. Corey Warner (East Fremantle) – 6:20

7. Shay Linke (Central District/SA) – 6:22

8. Sam Butler (GWV Rebels) – 6:23

9. Jai Serong (Gippsland Power/Vic Country) – 6:24

10. Luca Whitelum (Central District/SA) – 6:26

2km Time-Trial (Vic Metro and NSW/ACT only – run tracked via Strava app)

1. Josh Ward (Northern Knights/Vic Metro) – 5:57

2. Josh Fahey (GWS Giants Academy) – 5:59

3. Ned Long (Northern Knights/Vic Metro) – 6:05

4. Karl Worner (Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro) – 6:07

=5. Blake Howes (Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro), Connor MacDonald (Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Metro) – 6:08

7. Finn Callaghan (Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro) – 6:10

8. Charlie Dean (Williamstown VFL) – 6:11

9. Jed Rule (Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro) – 6:13

10. Angus Anderson (Sydney Swans Academy) – 6:14

Agility

1. Alastair Lord (Norwood/SA) – 7.940 seconds

2. Bryce Watson (Swan Districts/WA) – 8.006 seconds

3. Matt Johnson (West Perth/WA) – 8.061 seconds

4. Jesse Motlop (South Fremantle/WA) – 8.063 seconds

5. Cooper Beecken (Glenelg/SA) – 8.070 seconds

6. Ronald Fejo Jnr (West Adelaide/NT) – 8.080 seconds

7. Arthur Jones (Claremont/WA) – 8.189 seconds

8. Cooper Murley (Norwood/SA) – 8.200 seconds

9. Toby Triffett (Brisbane Lions Academy/QLD) – 8.226 seconds

10. Judd Mcvee (East Fremantle/WA) – 8.238 seconds

20m Sprint

1. Harvey Harrison (North Adelaide/SA) – 2.845 seconds

2. Taj Woewodin (East Fremantle/WA) – 2.898 seconds

3. Luke Polson (Peel Thunder/WA) – 2.900 seconds

4. Hugh Stagg (Glenelg/SA) – 2.910 seconds

5. Noah Pegoraro (West Perth/WA) – 2.926 seconds

6. Bryce Watson (Swan Districts/WA) – 2.951 seconds

7. Brad Hough (Peel Thunder/WA) – 2.960 seconds

8. Corey Warner (East Fremantle/WA) – 2.969 seconds

9. Sam Butler (GWV Rebels/Vic Country) – 2.974 seconds

10. Mitchell Knevitt (Geelong Falcons/Vic Country) – 2.976 seconds

Standing Vertical Jump

1. Corey Warner (East Fremantle/WA) – 76cm

=2. William Bella (Gold Coast Academy/QLD), Leek Alleer (Central District/SA), Noah Pegoraro (West Perth/WA) – 75cm

5. Lochlan Paton (West Pert//WA) – 73cm

=6. Tom Brown (West Perth/WA), Matt Johnson (West Perth/WA), Luke Polson (Peel Thunder/WA) – 72cm

=9. Sam Butler (GWV Rebels/Vic Country), Richard Farmer (Subiaco/WA), Brady Hough (Peel Thunder/WA) – 71cm

Running Vertical Jump
1. Leek Alleer (Central District/SA) – 107cm
2. Corey Warner (East Fremantle/WA) – 100cm
3. Josh Gibcus (GWV Rebels/Vic Country) – 95cm
4. Jahmal Stretch (Claremont/WA) – 93cm
5. Noah Pegoraro (West Perth/WA) – 92cm
6. Tyler McGinniss (North Hobart/TAS) – 91cm
7. Matt Johnson (West Perth/WA) – 89cm
=8. Kai Lohmann (GWV Rebels/Vic Country), Luke Polson (Peel Thunder/WA) – 88cm
10. Sam Butler (GWV Rebels/Vic Country) – 87cm

No comment on the testing results, but Alistair Lord is another good half back who was looking good early in the season, before going down with injury.

The more I think about the draft, the more I would prioritise the midfield and a KPP with our first two picks, and pick the best HBF at our third pick.

 

[jackess]

No comment on the testing results, but Alistair Lord is another good half back who was looking good early in the season, before going down with injury.

The more I think about the draft, the more I would prioritise the midfield and a KPP with our first two picks, and pick the best HBF at our third pick.

Have we had an Alastair on our list since the great one?

 

[On the quiet]

While not impossible, I guess the reason I think it's unlikely that we go after KPPs too much (if at all) in this draft is that the age demographic of our tall forwards & defenders suggests we probably won't really have a vacancy there for 4+ years.

Obviously it generally takes many KPPs 4+ years to develop, so it makes sense on that front - but will a highly rated KPP stick around for 4 years without much/any game time?

It's possible that we may struggle to hold onto Payne in future years for this same reason. He seems clearly the 4th best defender behind Harris, Marcus & Dizzy, but you can't easily play all 4 at once - so does Payne just wait for injury in the short term and retirement in the long term?

Ultimately I think this is why clubs often go through gaps without strong KPP talent. Because unlike midfield talent, there isn't really somewhere else on the ground you can easily play them to at least give them time in the seniors. It's in a key post or not at all. CCJ has probably been the perfect case of what I'm talking about - if Richmond had drafted him two years later, he'd be a very good chance of playing a 10 year career with them. But the timing was off and he wanted to play senior footy.

Payne is trying to get in the team at 22 years old. Harris & Hippy are both 24 and could have close to a decade left in them. McStay & Dizzy feel like they've been around forever, but are both only 26. Joe is 27. Marcus is our oldest KPP at 28. Not many top-level KPPs retire younger than 32. A number make it to 33/34, so as I said, it isn't an urgent need.

Obviously depth matters and you do need to prepare to cover injuries, but we do have levers we can pull in that scenario. Up forward, we've got Fullarton & Smith, McFadyen who often plays as a 3rd tall, and arguably now Lane & Fort who could also play as a key forward in a pinch (or take the rucking responsibilities to allow Oscar to move forward). We could also revert to a 2 tall forward setup if need be. As for down back, I know Lester isn't a true KPP, but he can play well there - giving us 5 key defender options on the list. There's also the option of the mid-season draft if injury did hit in any really significant way.

It's also worth noting that the only real chance a KPP happily sticks around for 3/4/5 years in the reserves is if they aren't very good and don't have too many other options, which isn't what we'd hope to draft at any rate. Let's say we took JVR, and in 2 years he is looking like a young star. Why wouldn't he request a trade back to Freo or West Coast, who will likely both need a key forward in their senior team by then, rather than wait another few years for Joe or Dan to retire?

I just think it would be potentially dangerous to invest too much in young KPPs over the next two years, because they'll likely get very little or no senior time for 3 or 4 years and understandably be unlikely to stick around long term as a result of that. In Rich and Zorko though, we do have players who will need replacing in the years ahead and no real obvious choice for those spots just yet, with these being our first high picks since 2017 to have a crack at replacing them. Surely that is our main goal for this draft & next.

Some very valid points. I was surprised Payne resigned for a further 3 years, I think he signed before Adams or at least that is how the club made the announcements, Adams a few months after Payne, so perhaps Payne's management did not think Adams would resign with Lions. I think Payne will end up like Chol or CJ from Richmond stays 5 or so years, realise he can't get into the backline and with no pending retirements seeks a trade for an opportunity, or club might trade him like they did with Witho. Therefore I think we should look at another KPP from this years draft and a mid and or winger. Think we are fine for HBF's

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

No comment on the testing results, but Alistair Lord is another good half back who was looking good early in the season, before going down with injury.

The more I think about the draft, the more I would prioritise the midfield and a KPP with our first two picks, and pick the best HBF at our third pick.

He won a Brownlow a long time ago. Would be funny if he was drafted by Geelong.

 

[spotthedog1]

St Kilda don’t have any picks between 9 and 62.

Future picks can be used. Either with us to bank points we can move next year, or in a three-team trade. In the circumstance, pick 20 is worth twice as much to the Saints than any other team.

Of course, it still looks like Owens would go outside the 20, so it's all academic.

 

[jackess]

For a HBFer I'd prioritise kicking over speed and agility. We have Madden and Kiddy who can play aggressively and run and overlap but Madden is a poor kick and Kiddy is a neat kick but not penetrating.

Probably depends on how we rate Carter Michael as a long term prospect who definitely has the kicking penetration to take over from Rich.

 

[Quigley]

Just for reference.

Using the time Rich ran as a junior, he would have placed 6th this year overall in the 20m sprint.

All up a pretty slow year.

 

[Quigley]

For a HBFer I'd prioritise kicking over speed and agility. We have Madden and Kiddy who can play aggressively and run and overlap but Madden is a poor kick and Kiddy is a neat kick but not penetrating.

Probably depends on how we rate Carter Michael as a long term prospect who definitely has the kicking penetration to take over from Rich.

I don't think Madden is a poor kick. I do think that his tendency to dwell over the ball when kicking does cause him on occasion to miss a target. A lot of the time though he has very nice touch and is very creative with his kicks.

 

[blueiris]

I don't think Madden is a poor kick. I do think that his tendency to dwell over the ball when kicking does cause him on occasion to miss a target. A lot of the time though he has very nice touch and is very creative with his kicks.

I remember when Hanley first started he’s kicking wasn’t the greatest he began working on it and became one of the best kicks in the AFL I feel the Irish players take time but once they get it are fantastic kicks

 

[blueiris]

Dan Battan of the Hun drafted Arlo Draper and Wilmot at 16 and 20 respectively in the Hun mock draft don’t know that much about Draper

 

[jackess]

I don't think Madden is a poor kick. I do think that his tendency to dwell over the ball when kicking does cause him on occasion to miss a target. A lot of the time though he has very nice touch and is very creative with his kicks.

Possibly but we haven't seen it at AFL level yet

 

[T Rick]

For a HBFer I'd prioritise kicking over speed and agility. We have Madden and Kiddy who can play aggressively and run and overlap but Madden is a poor kick and Kiddy is a neat kick but not penetrating.

Probably depends on how we rate Carter Michael as a long term prospect who definitely has the kicking penetration to take over from Rich.

I think you are a bit harsh in your assessment of Kiddy's kicking - he has a beautiful long kick and seems to get distance effortlessly. Madden has an awkward ball drop but is developing nicely. His goal on the run from the pocket at the Gabba whilst being chased down was exceptional.

 

[jackess]

I think you are a bit harsh in your assessment of Kiddy's kicking - he has a beautiful long kick and seems to get distance effortlessly. Madden has an awkward ball drop but is developing nicely. His goal on the run from the pocket at the Gabba whilst being chased down was exceptional.

Perhaps both have just lacked confidence then to take the tough kicks because we didn't see them at AFL level this year

 

[briztoon]

And… the BigFooty Lions drafter went and selected Alistair Lord at our third pick.

Pick 40 - Brisbane - Alastair Lord
180cm/76kg
Norwood/South Australia

After missing out on Chesser and Wilmot early I was keen to add some speed across half back with this selection. There's actually a few options I liked here but I think Lord has the most upside. He is a line-breaker with top level speed and agility, whose run and carry is probably his best feature. His use by foot is solid enough and his decision-making is typically sound. What I like best about Lord is his appetite for turning defence into attack. He'll overlap run all day and accumulate a fair bit of the footy. He's primarily an outside ball winner at the moment which probably limits his ability to transition into the midfield and whilst he's a capable tackler and defender 1 on 1, he'll need to improve in those areas as he rises to AFL level.

giantroo

 

[blueiris]

Having now watched highlights of Draper he seems like a slower version of Rayner not really sure he’s a need based pick

 

[mattsmob]

Having now watched highlights of Draper he seems like a slower version of Rayner not really sure he’s a need based pick

Draper is more elusive and agile than Rayner, probably has more finesse with his ball use as well. I wouldn't be disappointed with Draper, would be a bit of a project in the midfield but I really like him off either flank and you can never have too many guys with Rayner's skillset or just general versatility to play around the ground.

 

[mattsmob]

If we're able to get our 3rd pick into the late 20's I'm all for taking a KPP at 20 and mid at 14. Almost certain one of Wilmott, T. Brown, Banks or even Roberts who could be an interesting pick as a flanker will be available in the late 20's.
There's been a lot of talk about Roberts but with his pedigree and the fact he's been playing SANFL footy most of the season I think at the very least he'll be a solid pick in the second round. He's played the graveyard shift for South Adelaide where it's very hard to get involved in the play yet he hasn't looked out of place and has hit the scoreboard consistently. Was one of SA's best in the first champs game across half-back as well.