Analysis 2021 draft thread

[morsie]

we have Fort, Fullarton, Lane and H Smith.
If you look at it Lane and Fort took Archie/Ballendens spots
If Hippy was not injured we have the same amount of talls we started 2020 with.

Not sure with smaller lists you can carry too many young developing talls/rucks.
Be interesting if lists keep small if they let them develop to around 22-23 and take from VFL/SANFL WAFL etc
Although I assume other clubs be thinking the same

Problem is injuries to talls.. I think Fullarton and Joe our only talls last year not to miss a week injured?
Not sure we had many weeks with defensive talls Andrews, Adams, Gardiner, Payne and Lester all available.
Oscar, McStay and Hippy missed games
Even VFL pretty sure Ballenden, Archie and H Smith missed some of the limited games we had
Last year was not kind injury wise to us at all.

Ballenden played mainly KPD , that is where we might be short.

 

[Section 5]

I think that we have enough talls on our list depending on what people consider tall
Last year we had the most players over 200 cm in the AFL. Could very well end up the same in 2022

Lions 2022 players over 200 cm before draft:-
Oscar 205 cm, Fort 204 cm, Hippy 204 cm, Lane 204 cm, H Smith 204 cm, Andrews 201 cm, Daniher 200 cm with Fullarton just short on 199 cm

If you are taking 193 cm - 196 cm maybe an extra one if they are a mobile type player
Not sure the club would target a tall in the first two picks just take the best available. If it is a tall so be it

 

[briztoon]

I think that we have enough talls on our list depending on what people consider tall
Last year we had the most players over 200 cm in the AFL. Could very well end up the same in 2022

Lions 2022 players over 200 cm before draft:-
Oscar 205 cm, Fort 204 cm, Hippy 204 cm, Lane 204 cm, H Smith 204 cm, Andrews 201 cm, Daniher 200 cm with Fullarton just short on 199 cm

If you are taking 193 cm - 196 cm maybe an extra one if they are a mobile type player
Not sure the club would target a tall in the first two picks just take the best available. If it is a tall so be it

We are legitimately short on KPD, with only the one reserve.

I don’t view Lester as a true KPD.

 

[blueiris]

We are legitimately short on KPD, with only the one reserve.

I don’t view Lester as a true KPD.

This draft isn’t known for it’s KPP though next year draft is much better it seems unlikely to be quality KPP availability the 3 considered the highest are all in the top 10 range

 

[KissKiss]

We are legitimately short on KPD, with only the one reserve.

I don’t view Lester as a true KPD.

In terms of list balance it would be great if one of Lane or HSmith were key backs. Just would feel more balanced

 

[spotthedog1]

If we rate Owens as best available at 20:

To us, pick 20 would be worth 1 player - Owens.
To StK, pick 20 would be worth 2 players - their next best available at 20, and Owens later on as a matched bid.

List manager would call up St Kilda and tell them Owens is next on our list... Offer them the pick in exchange for more than pick 20, but less than 2x pick 20s.

Unless they try call our bluff in which case, draft him (if we have him next best available).

 

[briztoon]

If we rate Owens as best available at 20:

To us, pick 20 would be worth 1 player - Owens.
To StK, pick 20 would be worth 2 players - their next best available at 20, and Owens later on as a matched bid.

List manager would call up St Kilda and tell them Owens is next on our list... Offer them the pick in exchange for more than pick 20, but less than 2x pick 20s.

Unless they try call our bluff in which case, draft him (if we have him next best available).

St Kilda don’t have any picks between 9 and 62.

 

[davemc_lions]

Ballenden played mainly KPD , that is where we might be short.

I did not feel Ballenden was playing a true KPD role most weeks.
he was more floating around playing the spare and being the play maker from defence
Sort of what Rich/Birchall doing in the firsts.
Actually thought he might be good to take over Birchall role when he retired.
Not a bad intercept mark on top of good disposal.

Why we got smash a few games as the academy kids doing KPD roles.

 

[ManeMan]

I wouldn't be surprised, or upset, if we did end up taking two key position players this draft. JVR can play at either end, which is handy. Perhaps we take someone like Sinn, Chesser or Goater with our first pick. JVR at pick 20 and Jack Williams at 40.

I know we want some pace in our backline, but I think we are going to have it anyway if Coleman is left there and Answerth makes his way back into the side.

 

[Section 5]

We are legitimately short on KPD, with only the one reserve.

I don’t view Lester as a true KPD.

I think if we are short on KPP it is most likely in the forward area
KPF:- Hippy (back after Bye), Daniher, McStay
KPD:- Andrews, Adams, Payne, Gardiner & not Lester if considered a utility

Because clubs fill their list with an excess of midfield type players you are always short of depth KPP
Nearly half your list will either play in the VFL or be injured each week

Every club needs 2 KPP's at each end
It's that 3rd player at each end that dictates in part what sort of game plan you implement

I think the club will trial a few players to take or be ready to step into that 3rd forward tall role until Hippy comes back
Could be from Payne the most likely, Lester, J Berry and everyone's favorite whipping boy CEY. If it's the latter 2 no midfield time
Fort may/could rest forward but he is really a ruck that can play a little forward. Assuming he makes the side and is not just a backup ruck

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I wouldn't be surprised, or upset, if we did end up taking two key position players this draft. JVR can play at either end, which is handy. Perhaps we take someone like Sinn, Chesser or Goater with our first pick. JVR at pick 20 and Jack Williams at 40.

I know we want some pace in our backline, but I think we are going to have it anyway if Coleman is left there and Answerth makes his way back into the side.

While not impossible, I guess the reason I think it's unlikely that we go after KPPs too much (if at all) in this draft is that the age demographic of our tall forwards & defenders suggests we probably won't really have a vacancy there for 4+ years.

Obviously it generally takes many KPPs 4+ years to develop, so it makes sense on that front - but will a highly rated KPP stick around for 4 years without much/any game time?

It's possible that we may struggle to hold onto Payne in future years for this same reason. He seems clearly the 4th best defender behind Harris, Marcus & Dizzy, but you can't easily play all 4 at once - so does Payne just wait for injury in the short term and retirement in the long term?

Ultimately I think this is why clubs often go through gaps without strong KPP talent. Because unlike midfield talent, there isn't really somewhere else on the ground you can easily play them to at least give them time in the seniors. It's in a key post or not at all. CCJ has probably been the perfect case of what I'm talking about - if Richmond had drafted him two years later, he'd be a very good chance of playing a 10 year career with them. But the timing was off and he wanted to play senior footy.

Payne is trying to get in the team at 22 years old. Harris & Hippy are both 24 and could have close to a decade left in them. McStay & Dizzy feel like they've been around forever, but are both only 26. Joe is 27. Marcus is our oldest KPP at 28. Not many top-level KPPs retire younger than 32. A number make it to 33/34, so as I said, it isn't an urgent need.

Obviously depth matters and you do need to prepare to cover injuries, but we do have levers we can pull in that scenario. Up forward, we've got Fullarton & Smith, McFadyen who often plays as a 3rd tall, and arguably now Lane & Fort who could also play as a key forward in a pinch (or take the rucking responsibilities to allow Oscar to move forward). We could also revert to a 2 tall forward setup if need be. As for down back, I know Lester isn't a true KPP, but he can play well there - giving us 5 key defender options on the list. There's also the option of the mid-season draft if injury did hit in any really significant way.

It's also worth noting that the only real chance a KPP happily sticks around for 3/4/5 years in the reserves is if they aren't very good and don't have too many other options, which isn't what we'd hope to draft at any rate. Let's say we took JVR, and in 2 years he is looking like a young star. Why wouldn't he request a trade back to Freo or West Coast, who will likely both need a key forward in their senior team by then, rather than wait another few years for Joe or Dan to retire?

I just think it would be potentially dangerous to invest too much in young KPPs over the next two years, because they'll likely get very little or no senior time for 3 or 4 years and understandably be unlikely to stick around long term as a result of that. In Rich and Zorko though, we do have players who will need replacing in the years ahead and no real obvious choice for those spots just yet, with these being our first high picks since 2017 to have a crack at replacing them. Surely that is our main goal for this draft & next.

 

[ManeMan]

While not impossible, I guess the reason I think it's unlikely that we go after KPPs too much (if at all) in this draft is that the age demographic of our tall forwards & defenders suggests we probably won't really have a vacancy there for 4+ years.

Obviously it generally takes many KPPs 4+ years to develop, so it makes sense on that front - but will a highly rated KPP stick around for 4 years without much/any game time?

It's possible that we may struggle to hold onto Payne in future years for this same reason. He seems clearly the 4th best defender behind Harris, Marcus & Dizzy, but you can't easily play all 4 at once - so does Payne just wait for injury in the short term and retirement in the long term?

Ultimately I think this is why clubs often go through gaps without strong KPP talent. Because unlike midfield talent, there isn't really somewhere else on the ground you can easily play them to at least give them time in the seniors. It's in a key post or not at all. CCJ has probably been the perfect case of what I'm talking about - if Richmond had drafted him two years later, he'd be a very good chance of playing a 10 year career with them. But the timing was off and he wanted to play senior footy.

Payne is trying to get in the team at 22 years old. Harris & Hippy are both 24 and could have close to a decade left in them. McStay & Dizzy feel like they've been around forever, but are both only 26. Joe is 27. Marcus is our oldest KPP at 28. Not many top-level KPPs retire younger than 32. A number make it to 33/34, so as I said, it isn't an urgent need.

Obviously depth matters and you do need to prepare to cover injuries, but we do have levers we can pull in that scenario. Up forward, we've got Fullarton & Smith, McFadyen who often plays as a 3rd tall, and arguably now Lane & Fort who could also play as a key forward in a pinch (or take the rucking responsibilities to allow Oscar to move forward). We could also revert to a 2 tall forward setup if need be. As for down back, I know Lester isn't a true KPP, but he can play well there - giving us 5 key defender options on the list. There's also the option of the mid-season draft if injury did hit in any really significant way.

It's also worth noting that the only real chance a KPP happily sticks around for 3/4/5 years in the reserves is if they aren't very good and don't have too many other options, which isn't what we'd hope to draft at any rate. Let's say we took JVR, and in 2 years he is looking like a young star. Why wouldn't he request a trade back to Freo or West Coast, who will likely both need a key forward in their senior team by then, rather than wait another few years for Joe or Dan to retire?

I just think it would be potentially dangerous to invest too much in young KPPs over the next two years, because they'll likely get very little or no senior time for 3 or 4 years and understandably be unlikely to stick around long term as a result of that. In Rich and Zorko though, we do have players who will need replacing in the years ahead and no real obvious choice for those spots just yet, with these being our first high picks since 2017 to have a crack at replacing them. Surely that is our main goal for this draft & next.

Yep, those are all fair points. I still feel we are light for talls, outside of rucks. Who do we play in key positions in the VFL? Payne is really the only key defender now and there's no full time key forward, unless you consider Fullarton that. The rest of the tall forward spots will be occupied by ruckman. The balance just seems a little off.

Also, if a player is good enough they will force their way into the seniors. I love Joe, McStay and Hippy, but I think it's fair to say none of them are currently a top 10 key forward in the comp. JVR could come in and dominate and get to that level, who knows. In defence, I'm not ruling out Payne pushing someone like Gardiner or Adams out of the seniors as soon as next season. Probably won't happen, but it could. The competition for spots puts pressure on those in the seniors to maintain strong form. It's healthy. At the moment, there's no one in the reserves putting pressure on our forwards.

In regards to replacements for Zorko, we'd be hoping that's Ashcroft. Replacing Rich should be a priority though, I agree.

 

[twhowler]

I've been pretty vocal about how I view Bazzo and wouldn't have a problem taking him at 18, personally I'd be taking best available mid at 14, Bazzo at 18 and then there should be a couple good value outside mid/flanker at 41.
With Gibcus I don't think there's too big a difference between he and Bazzo, Gibcus is a much better athlete however Bazzo isn't a bad athlete and I think Bazzo's ball use and rebounding potential makes up for that.

Cheers. Team Bazzi then!

 

[POBT]

Purely on list profile, I think two 18yo talls would be fine, one at either end of the ground. The benefit of drafting them now is that they'd get to play their preferred position in the reserves, but alongside older teammates. It is a good environment to develop.

 

[blueiris]

I think if we are short on KPP it is most likely in the forward area
KPF:- Hippy (back after Bye), Daniher, McStay
KPD:- Andrews, Adams, Payne, Gardiner & not Lester if considered a utility

Because clubs fill their list with an excess of midfield type players you are always short of depth KPP
Nearly half your list will either play in the VFL or be injured each week

Every club needs 2 KPP's at each end
It's that 3rd player at each end that dictates in part what sort of game plan you implement

I think the club will trial a few players to take or be ready to step into that 3rd forward tall role until Hippy comes back
Could be from Payne the most likely, Lester, J Berry and everyone's favorite whipping boy CEY. If it's the latter 2 no midfield time
Fort may/could rest forward but he is really a ruck that can play a little forward. Assuming he makes the side and is not just a backup ruck

Oscar is a very capable forward with Fort as a natural ruck I feel we’re fine until Hipwood returns it would be good if the knee injury scared teams off Amiss our medical team would back themselves in either Bazzo or Williams late I feel would be a great draft outcome with one of Sinn or Chesser as that speedy wingman/hbf

 

[Dalions]

Yep, those are all fair points. I still feel we are light for talls, outside of rucks. Who do we play in key positions in the VFL? Payne is really the only key defender now and there's no full time key forward, unless you consider Fullarton that. The rest of the tall forward spots will be occupied by ruckman. The balance just seems a little off.

Also, if a player is good enough they will force their way into the seniors. I love Joe, McStay and Hippy, but I think it's fair to say none of them are currently a top 10 key forward in the comp. JVR could come in and dominate and get to that level, who knows. In defence, I'm not ruling out Payne pushing someone like Gardiner or Adams out of the seniors as soon as next season. Probably won't happen, but it could. The competition for spots puts pressure on those in the seniors to maintain strong form. It's healthy. At the moment, there's no one in the reserves putting pressure on our forwards.

In regards to replacements for Zorko, we'd be hoping that's Ashcroft. Replacing Rich should be a priority though, I agree.

We will still have Payne/Adams, Lester and more than likely Ballenden as a top up playing in the VFL.
Forward there will be likely Fullarton, Smith, Lane and possibly even Fort come the back end of the year to play up forward. As long as there is no major injuries that will be a decent line up.
Plus there may be atleast one tall that we add to the mix via the draft.

 

[ManeMan]

Those guys you have in the forward line are all ruckman, that's what I was getting at. Would be the tallest, slowest forward line getting around.

Would only be one of Payne or Adams playing reserves. Lester can play taller but you he will be getting asked to play on guys 200cm+ regularly. Then who have we got back there to cover a third tall? Madden? Obviously, if we redraft Ballenden it's a different story. But again, the balance just seems a little off.

I don't want to get bogged down in discussion about having a perfectly balanced side in the reserves, it's not crucial. But we don't want to be getting smashed every week either.

It's never much fun drafting players you know are highly unlikely to be playing senior footy for a few years, but talls can take a while. Our list is in pretty great shape in all other areas (especially with Ashcroft and Fletcher coming in next year), so now seems like a good time to bite the bullet.

That being said, if we end up with two of Sinn, Chesser, Johnson, Goater, Wilmot with our first two picks and someone like banks at 40, you won't hear me complaining.

 

[mattsmob]

I think if we are short on KPP it is most likely in the forward area
KPF:- Hippy (back after Bye), Daniher, McStay
KPD:- Andrews, Adams, Payne, Gardiner & not Lester if considered a utility

There will also be the resting rucks that will be playing time forward, Fullarton/H. Smith/Lane and then Fort once Hippy is back, that'll be one ruck and 3 tall forwards in the reserves which is our preferred set-up in the AFL so I don't see why we wouldn't try to replicate it in the VFL.
In the backlines it'll be one of Payne/Gardiner and Lester, I definitely think if we bring in a kpp they'll be playing as a tall defender.

 

[Dalions]

Those guys you have in the forward line are all ruckman, that's what I was getting at. Would be the tallest, slowest forward line getting around.

Would only be one of Payne or Adams playing reserves. Lester can play taller but you he will be getting asked to play on guys 200cm+ regularly. Then who have we got back there to cover a third tall? Madden? Obviously, if we redraft Ballenden it's a different story. But again, the balance just seems a little off.

I don't want to get bogged down in discussion about having a perfectly balanced side in the reserves, it's not crucial. But we don't want to be getting smashed every week either.

It's never much fun drafting players you know are highly unlikely to be playing senior footy for a few years, but talls can take a while. Our list is in pretty great shape in all other areas (especially with Ashcroft and Fletcher coming in next year), so now seems like a good time to bite the bullet.

That being said, if we end up with two of Sinn, Chesser, Johnson, Goater, Wilmot with our first two picks and someone like banks at 40, you won't hear me complaining.

Fullarton is a forward who can ruck a bit. The info we get from the club is that Henry Smith is a forward who can ruck a bit and without looking at the numbers he seemed to be bobbing up and kicking 3 or so goals this year in the VFL quite often with limited opportunities with our Midfiled being soundly beaten due to injuries in there.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Fullarton is a forward who can ruck a bit. The info we get from the club is that Henry Smith is a forward who can ruck a bit and without looking at the numbers he seemed to be bobbing up and kicking 3 or so goals this year in the VFL quite often with limited opportunities with our Midfiled being soundly beaten due to injuries in there.

That's a really important point I think - we drafted Smith as a key forward, not as a ruckman. So we have him & Fullarton as our reserves key forward options.

I'm not inherently against the idea, I just feel like the plan only works if the player we draft is brilliant to the point they're pushing one of our top key position players out of the team in the next 2-3 years. If they can't do that, they almost certainly won't get senior footy for a long time and I don't know why they'd stick around.

Looking at his year this year, perhaps we should have held onto Sam Skinner. 24 years old, capable at both ends, can play in an emergency and could still have a good senior career, but won't be in high demand elsewhere so will be more likely to stick around playing at reserves level for the medium term. I'm not sure a highly rated interstate young player will do the same.

 

[mpal6]

That's a really important point I think - we drafted Smith as a key forward, not as a ruckman. So we have him & Fullarton as our reserves key forward options.

I'm not inherently against the idea, I just feel like the plan only works if the player we draft is brilliant to the point they're pushing one of our top key position players out of the team in the next 2-3 years. If they can't do that, they almost certainly won't get senior footy for a long time and I don't know why they'd stick around.

Looking at his year this year, perhaps we should have held onto Sam Skinner. 24 years old, capable at both ends, can play in an emergency and could still have a good senior career, but won't be in high demand elsewhere so will be more likely to stick around playing at reserves level for the medium term. I'm not sure a highly rated interstate young player will do the same.

The bolded bit is why I was thinking about our academy prospects like Briskey. He seems to have a pretty good base - 2.94 sec 20m sprint, won the vertical leap+standing vertical leap again, comes off our academy training program so we'll know everything about him. I would love for us to build this depth from Lions Academy players if they are good enough. Briskey appeared to be pretty close to winning mid-season spot with Pies, so other clubs are also seeing something in him. He'll be 20 next January so we must have a pretty good idea of his baseline abilities by now.

 

[mattsmob]

That's a really important point I think - we drafted Smith as a key forward, not as a ruckman. So we have him & Fullarton as our reserves key forward options.

I'm not inherently against the idea, I just feel like the plan only works if the player we draft is brilliant to the point they're pushing one of our top key position players out of the team in the next 2-3 years. If they can't do that, they almost certainly won't get senior footy for a long time and I don't know why they'd stick around.

Looking at his year this year, perhaps we should have held onto Sam Skinner. 24 years old, capable at both ends, can play in an emergency and could still have a good senior career, but won't be in high demand elsewhere so will be more likely to stick around playing at reserves level for the medium term. I'm not sure a highly rated interstate young player will do the same.

I agree key forward isn't much of a need however after de-listing 2 guys that were playing key defence for us I think we pick up a kpd and rightly so, if they can play both ends then great.

 

[briztoon]

I wouldn’t get to hung up on the composition of our reserves.

The draft isn’t the only mechanism we have for balancing out our reserve team.

It looks like we’re targeting a few more mature age recruits to play as VFL top ups next year, so we could sign a couple of KPP’s out of the QAFL as top ups.

 

[Dalions]

I wouldn’t get to hung up on the composition of our reserves.

The draft isn’t the only mechanism we have for balancing out our reserve team.

It looks like we’re targeting a few more mature age recruits to play as VFL top ups next year, so we we could sign a couple of KPP’s out of the QAFL as top ups.

With Ballenden possibly being one of them.

 

[Section 5]

I am not sure why people are worried about who plays as a KPP in the VFL
Sure it is nice to have our team completive at that level
An inexperienced VFL team was the main reason we got thrashed in games this year.
More than the usual numbers of academy and top up kids played along with the new draftees
However it did expose them to better opposition and game plan structure.

The club obviously decided to go this way or were forced to because of some money constraints in the new VFL cap space

The Lions seniors still finished 4th in the H & A season so a poor performing VFL side did not have a drastic affect in the end

Of the players delisted or retired this year only Ballenden could be considered as a possible KPP. He may also come back to our VFL side anyhow