Prediction 2021 Pass Mark For Each Team

[terrybull]

Port Adelaide – top 4
Brisbane – Grand Final
Richmond – top 3
Geelong – flag
West Coast – finals
St.Kilda - finals
Western – finals
Collingwood – finals or at least 9-11th
Melbourne – finals
GWS – finals or at least 9-10th
Carlton – finals or 9th
Fremantle – finals or 9th
Essendon – best of bottom 4
Gold Coast – at least 10th
Hawthorn – avoid spoon
Sydney – best of bottom 4
North Melbourne – avoid spoon
Adelaide – avoid spoon
Fitzroy - 2nd VAFA premiership

 

[Papa G]

Of course. Especially since they've got what Champion Data rated the easiest draw in the comp (which is mind-boggling, for a team who won the minor premiership last year and who also got to play so many games at home!), and who have added to their best 22.

It defies all logic and common sense to suggest that they could be significantly worse this year and it be a "pass".

Especially when he has top 4 as a pass mark for the team who finished 8th, and had by far the worst record against the other teams who made the finals (1 win, 7 losses and a % of about 70%).

Mate as a Port supporter the only pass mark for me is a premiership. Whilst we don't have an absolute superstar like Martin, we have depth in all positions. There are no excuses.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Mate as a Port supporter the only pass mark for me is a premiership. Whilst we don't have an absolute superstar like Martin, we have depth in all positions. There are no excuses.

Aliir squared seems a very sound investment for Port, that was an area of great weakness last season that was always going to leave you vulnerable to strong teams with big tall forwards. The fact you were mixing it seriously with both Grand Finalists shows you have to be taken seriously. But the age of your older contingent worried me last season, and they are all a year older this season. Including your key defence relief recruit Goldsack, who was born prior to the introduction of decimal currency.

Gray will be 33 around the start of the season, Boak 33 during the season. These guys are playing key roles. Rockliff, Hartlett, Dixon and Jonas are all above 30 now, and Motlop will be around the start of the season. There are some very key players there over 30. Then at the other amongst your deckhands you have a lot of you talent that will still be very young and as we saw with Duursma’s conduct in the PF, they aren’t quite hardened focussed footballers at that age. You will likely be fielding Butters, Duursma, Rozee, Georgiades and at age 21 and under and Marshall and Ladhams still not fully matured. That is a hell of a lot of your top end talent either past their prime or not fully matured yet, and especially over the course of a longer season I think this will count against Port.

I see Port as more a team of the future in terms of flags, most likely when these gun youngsters are entering their prime and capable of leading the team. Top four would be a very good effort this season in my eyes.

 

[Papa G]

Aliir squared seems a very sound investment for Port, that was an area of great weakness last season that was always going to leave you vulnerable to strong teams with big tall forwards. The fact you were mixing it seriously with both Grand Finalists shows you have to be taken seriously. But the age of your older contingent worried me last season, and they are all a year older this season. Including your key defence relief recruit Goldsack, who was born prior to the introduction of decimal currency.

Gray will be 33 around the start of the season, Boak 33 during the season. These guys are playing key roles. Rockliff, Hartlett, Dixon and Jonas are all above 30 now, and Motlop will be around the start of the season. There are some very key players there over 30. Then at the other amongst your deckhands you have a lot of you talent that will still be very young and as we saw with Duursma’s conduct in the PF, they aren’t quite hardened focussed footballers at that age. You will likely be fielding Butters, Duursma, Rozee, Georgiades and at age 21 and under and Marshall and Ladhams still not fully matured. That is a hell of a lot of your top end talent either past their prime or not fully matured yet, and especially over the course of a longer season I think this will count against Port.

I see Port as more a team of the future in terms of flags, most likely when these gun youngsters are entering their prime and capable of leading the team. Top four would be a very good effort this season in my eyes.

Westhoff and Ebert are gone. Neither had huge impact last year. I think this will be Gray's last year., he's not the player he was, but he's still a pretty decent footballer. Boak came second in the Brownlow and is fit as he's ever been. I don't have Rockliff or Motlop in my best 22. Good depth though. Hartlett, Dixon and Jonas aren't done yet. Hartlett, with our plethora of half back flankers is very replaceable, Jonas and Dixon less so. Duursma, Rozee, Butters, Marshall should all pass 50 games experience this year. Starting to become seasoned.

I just think we have the ingredients. My expectation is a Premiership. Will be bitterly disappointed if we don't achieve it. People say this what happened post 2014. I don't. The bottom 6 of that 2014 team were spuds and we had no depth. I can't say that of this current Port team. The Hinkley factor is my greatest concern.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Westhoff and Ebert are gone. Neither had huge impact last year. I think this will be Gray's last year., he's not the player he was, but he's still a pretty decent footballer. Boak came second in the Brownlow and is fit as he's ever been. I don't have Rockliff or Motlop in my best 22. Good depth though. Hartlett, Dixon and Jonas aren't done yet. Hartlett, with our plethora of half back flankers is very replaceable, Jonas and Dixon less so. Duursma, Rozee, Butters, Marshall should all pass 50 games experience this year. Starting to become seasoned.

I just think we have the ingredients. My expectation is a Premiership. Will be bitterly disappointed if we don't achieve it. People say this what happened post 2014. I don't. The bottom 6 of that 2014 team were spuds and we had no depth. I can't say that of this current Port team. The Hinkley factor is my greatest concern.

You definitely have a good team sheet. Those older guys if all fit and at their best it is not too big a worry, perhaps until they have to keep up with a team full of racehorses late in a final. But the real worry is they tend to become more injury prone, or just more likely to lose their zip during a season, as we saw last year with Westhoff.

I do think Port has a pretty unusual age profile in terms of their most talented players, most being in the 30 and older or 23 and under categories and fewer in the prime 24-29 region.

 

[damicky]

Port Adelaide – top 4
Brisbane – Grand Final
Richmond – top 3
Geelong – flag
West Coast – finals
St.Kilda - finals
Western – finals
Collingwood – finals or at least 9-11th
Melbourne – finals
GWS – finals or at least 9-10th
Carlton – finals or 9th
Fremantle – finals or 9th
Essendon – best of bottom 4
Gold Coast – at least 10th
Hawthorn – avoid spoon
Sydney – best of bottom 4
North Melbourne – avoid spoon
Adelaide – avoid spoon
Fitzroy - 2nd VAFA premiership

What about University?

 

[Halloween Jack]

Nothing less then win another trade week for us.

 

[Ceehook]

Interested to discuss what supporters think that the pass mark for each team would be for the coming season. Going off their 2020 ladder position, here are my minimum expectations;

Port – flag
Brisbane – flag
Richmond – flag
Geelong – flag
West Coast – flag
Saints – top 4. Was going to say grand final but a rise of a couple of places will be a good effort
Bulldogs – top 4. Same thoughts as the Saints
Collingwood – finals. Chance to drop out so to stay in the finals after their post-season would be a fair effort
Melbourne – finals
GWS – not to drop back any further than they are now. A freefall would be terrible but it's on the cards after losing some decent players
Carlton – finals
Fremantle – finals
Essendon – not worse than 14th. Expecting them to fall so if they can stay out of the bottom 4 then a good result for me
Gold Coast – up four places and into the top 10. Needs to keep improving with the talent they have
Hawthorn – any rise on last year
Swans – any rise on last year
Kangaroos – not last
Adelaide – not last

you need a lot to go right for a flag

I would say for
Port
Brisbane
Richmond
Geelong &
West Coast

making a prelim is a pass mark
making the GF is a very good season
and a flag is the ultimate success


now not all five can make a prelim so at least one will see their season as a fail

 

[Off Tap]

you need a lot to go right for a flag

I would say for
Port
Brisbane
Richmond
Geelong &
West Coast

making a prelim is a pass mark
making the GF is a very good season
and a flag is the ultimate success


now not all five can make a prelim so at least one will see their season as a fail

I'd be extremely disappointed if we didn't win this year with the list we have and it's current demographic. Anything less than that is a fail in my eyes.

Teams only have a small window of opportunity to win flags when they have their squads in place and we're in that spot right now.

This year might be the last in a while where we have a team that's good enough to win.

 

[craffles]

So many pass marks built off season 2020 peeformance which was incredibly unusual given the hubs and shorter games. Given there was so much football played in QLD and SA and both there lists are still young I can very easily see a world where Brisbane and Port (especially Port) drop off quite a bit.

I really think we will see some strange results pop up this year so the concept of a pass mark should have a lens focused more on what the club would expect / want as opposed to a dodgy salesman budget setting of last year +5%

 

[Catsnlakers]

Completely agree. The only reason I say Geelong must win the flag this year for a pass mark, is because they've thrown so much draft and future capital at it, and their core is getting so old, that it's a boom or bust situation.

That's not a criticism cats fans, it's worth the shot given you've been close. 1 flag is worth 10 years of future pain, given that's still ahead of the average in an 18 team comp.

As stark as the age demographic looks, it was very similar 10 years ago & we never dropped.... I would be surprised ( and disappointed) if we were to drop out for a few years, as the clubs mandate is to stay in finals calculations every year......On the flag or bust, we have this year & next as our ‘best’ chance, but lots of other teams would feel that way too.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Im a bit more realistic/conservative than most - so i think there isa bit of pressure on qu

you need a lot to go right for a flag

I would say for
Port
Brisbane
Richmond
Geelong &
West Coast

making a prelim is a pass mark
making the GF is a very good season
and a flag is the ultimate success


now not all five can make a prelim so at least one will see their season as a fail

Very good post

And i think there is some pressure on other teams down the ladder

Im bullish on Freos chances - with their new coach - but they cant afford to go backwards this year

Carlton - who had some good away wins - Freo/Geel - and got beaten in last kick against Port - they have to keep improving and really finish 7th or 8th - just cant have another year of nothing

Ithink with StK/Foot - finish in the top 6 and win 1 final - thats their pass mark

I think of the teams who finished right down the bottom last year - i think Ade have got a little bit of pressure on them - simply because they were playing easily the best football of those teams at the end of last year - thus can they keep going with that trend and jump say 5 or 6 spots

 

[Schauermann]

Interested to discuss what supporters think that the pass mark for each team would be for the coming season. Going off their 2020 ladder position, here are my minimum expectations;

Port – flag
Brisbane – flag
Richmond – flag
Geelong – flag
West Coast – flag
Saints – top 4. Was going to say grand final but a rise of a couple of places will be a good effort
Bulldogs – top 4. Same thoughts as the Saints
Collingwood – finals. Chance to drop out so to stay in the finals after their post-season would be a fair effort
Melbourne – finals
GWS – not to drop back any further than they are now. A freefall would be terrible but it's on the cards after losing some decent players
Carlton – finals
Fremantle – finals
Essendon – not worse than 14th. Expecting them to fall so if they can stay out of the bottom 4 then a good result for me
Gold Coast – up four places and into the top 10. Needs to keep improving with the talent they have
Hawthorn – any rise on last year
Swans – any rise on last year
Kangaroos – not last
Adelaide – not last

Pretty good list. But I agree with some others that it is finals for GWS.

 

[mad-saint-guy]

Make a prelim for St Kilda. There will be natural improvement from our young team and have added 2 new best 22 players without losing any. We made a semi final last year so the next step is a prelim this year. The players will also have had another year to train and learn Ratten's game plan.

 

[The Dougster]

I'll be disappointed if we don't win 8 or 9 games

 

[StillAtLarge]

Gold Coast need to (and will) play finals. I think it's the most balanced & talented young list I've seen in the afl era.
They may find the winter grind a bit tough but they'll start the season really strongly on hard, fast surfaces and bank a lot of wins.

 

[damicky]

I'll be disappointed if we don't win 8 or 9 games

Really?!?

I think that North will be lucky to win more than 3-4

 

[FRUMPY]

I don't necessarily think a pass mark for us is related to our ladder position. It's more about development and improvement in our young core, ensuring they're better players and more experienced at the end of the year than they are now.

Yeah the bottom 4 or so clubs who are rebuilding, the ladder position is irrelevant. Its about getting games into the kids and seeing development in said kids/team.

 

[FRUMPY]

Gold Coast need to (and will) play finals. I think it's the most balanced & talented young list I've seen in the afl era.
They may find the winter grind a bit tough but they'll start the season really strongly on hard, fast surfaces and bank a lot of wins.

So same as the last few years. Bank early wins and then not much after that. This year you would expect them to garner more wins in the 2nd half than they have in the past - and that would be a pass mark - so 8-10 wins for me is a pass mark for them - not finals

 

[X AE A12]

So many pass marks built off season 2020 peeformance which was incredibly unusual given the hubs and shorter games. Given there was so much football played in QLD and SA and both there lists are still young I can very easily see a world where Brisbane and Port (especially Port) drop off quite a bit.

I really think we will see some strange results pop up this year so the concept of a pass mark should have a lens focused more on what the club would expect / want as opposed to a dodgy salesman budget setting of last year +5%

Brisbane finished second the year before without covid with a younger list and no Daniher, cockatoo, ah Chee who are all best 22. Number of 1st round draft picks with 50 plus games this year. Criminally underrated, pass is to make GF

 

[Tasmanian saint]

you need a lot to go right for a flag

I would say for
Port
Brisbane
Richmond
Geelong &
West Coast

making a prelim is a pass mark
making the GF is a very good season
and a flag is the ultimate success


now not all five can make a prelim so at least one will see their season as a fail

I don’t recon west coast are contenders they will make the 8 due to there home record but when you look at there team a lot of there better players are getting on a bit we will start to see them drop of a bit

 

[Ceehook]

Really?!?

I think that North will be lucky to win more than 3-4

he meant in the VFL

 

[Tasmanian saint]

I'd be extremely disappointed if we didn't win this year with the list we have and it's current demographic. Anything less than that is a fail in my eyes.

Teams only have a small window of opportunity to win flags when they have their squads in place and we're in that spot right now.

This year might be the last in a while where we have a team that's good enough to win.

I think that’s very ambitious you’re a top 8 team but a long way of Richmond that’s foreshore

 

[The Dougster]

he meant in the VFL

No he didn't

 

[damicky]

he meant in the VFL

Oh ok ... that makes more sense