Prediction 2021 Pass Mark For Each Team

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Brisbane finished second the year before without covid with a younger list and no Daniher, cockatoo, ah Chee who are all best 22. Number of 1st round draft picks with 50 plus games this year. Criminally underrated, pass is to make GF

Big IF just to get on the park.

 

[Milanista28]

I'd like to debut a few kids this year, Jones, Perkins, Cox, Reid, Bryan and Lachie Johnson the chances, I'd love to see Caldwell show he's going to be a good footballer for the next 200 games, I'd like to see McGrath, Langford, Parish, Ridley, Draper and Redman take further steps in their development.

But above all I'd like to see an identity/game plan and consistency.

Probably adds up to 6-8 wins but that doesn't worry me too much.

 

[THE_GUN]

West Coast & Geelong specially would be looking at winning a flag with their recent investments and age demographic
Richmond top 4 is a pass after being up for 4 years and slight reset after 2021 with picks and couple of players coming to an end
Port /Brisbane - GF
StKilda & Doggies - Prelim
GWS / Melb / Carlton / Pies - Finals

Bombers / Freo / Swans / Suns / North / Hawks / Crows - developing players

 

[terrybull]

What about University?

University Blacks - 21st VAFA Premiership
University Blues - 9th VAFA Premiership

 

[nineteen eighty]

I think only Geelong needs a flag for a pass mark, because of how much they traded in. It's win or bust pretty quickly.

Port and Brisbane are up and coming so have time. A flag win is not necessarily expected of them, and it's not likely the last chance.

Richmond, we have 3 in 4 years and while we are the best team, teams don't stay up forever. We have cashed in well from our dominance and while not winning would of course be disappointing, flags from here are a bonus. Even the great Brisbane team was only a serious threat for 4 years.

West coast weren't close last year, way too harsh to say winning it all is the minimum expectation.

Pretty much agree with all of your points. Not one Tigers supporter saw '17 coming and 3 from 4 has been an unbelievable achievement. Anything from here on in is a bonus for the Tiges.

Geelong has gone all in like no other and whilst in theory all clubs (well most) are playing for a flag, for the Cats it's flag or bust. Will be interesting to read on and see what the Cats supporters have to say. Port are also playing for a flag...with similar pressure (maybe on the rung below) to the Cats.

The Bulldogs won 10 last year...I would expect they would be expecting another 4'ish wins this year.

 

[X AE A12]

Big IF just to get on the park.

Why, have they had injuries or something, pull the other one nuff nuff

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Why, have they had injuries or something, pull the other one nuff nuff

Have a look at their history twit

 

[X AE A12]

Have a look at their history twit

Did you think I was born yesterday, why don't you plug in your charger nuff nuff

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Did you think I was born yesterday,

Pity for us on here your ol man didn't pull out quick enough.

 

[JPetro83]

Pass mark for the crows is anything more than 6 wins

 

[damicky]

Pass mark for the crows is anything more than 6 wins

Is that including the AFLW team?

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

I don't necessarily think a pass mark for us is related to our ladder position. It's more about development and improvement in our young core, ensuring they're better players and more experienced at the end of the year than they are now.

Largely I agree, experience of the younger brigade is key. But percentage, wins, and some statistical measures all come into it. Getting smashed doesn't help anyone learn, unless its part of instilling a future winning system. But even then, will they develop faith in that system. There needs to be some tangible result for the learning to stick.

There's no point playing 22 young guys every week if all they learn is how to lose. If they lose in a system set up to win later, that's one thing. So long as they get some faith in that system. So many things are hard to measure, particularly at the probable lower end of the table.

 

[BigBreakfast]

Carlton = finals. No more excuses, just get it done.

 

[PzBlinky]

Pretty much agree with all of your points. Not one Tigers supporter saw '17 coming and 3 from 4 has been an unbelievable achievement. Anything from here on in is a bonus for the Tiges.

Geelong has gone all in like no other and whilst in theory all clubs (well most) are playing for a flag, for the Cats it's flag or bust. Will be interesting to read on and see what the Cats supporters have to say. Port are also playing for a flag...with similar pressure (maybe on the rung below) to the Cats.

The Bulldogs won 10 last year...I would expect they would be expecting another 4'ish wins this year.

As a Cats fan, I'm almost as interested in 2023 and beyond as the next two seasons. If Scott keeps the team competitive beyond 2022 (i.e. top 6), he's a freaking genius, flag or not.

At the time, I thought blowing the 2019 PF was our last serious shot so 2020 was an almost-very-pleasant surprise. Considering they've covered the retirements with experienced talent, I'd expect them to be there again at the pointy end (barring injuries or weirdness).

That said, the reality is probably we drop off in the next few seasons. If they snag a flag before then, it's worth it... but we've been saying that for the past 3-4 years.

 

[Whiskers]

Of course anything less than a flag is not a pass mark for us. However every year I feel we are a massive chance yet so much needs to go right still. I find it ridiculous people have only just started rating us again. Last year people didn’t think we would even make the 8 lol and definitely not top 5.

I don’t even think we are necessarily better now, we have lost Ablett and Taylor who still played very good football last year.
Smith + Higgins over those two isn’t better and the expectations on Cameron is ridiculously high, he wasn’t that great last year. Sure he could go well but there are no guarantees whatsoever, his pre season has been compromised as has Dangerfield’s.

We still have no real ruckmen. I think we can win it but it’s not like we are suddenly massively improved on other seasons.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Given that we finished 5th last year, and there were only three of our 19 games that we weren't in to the death (with two of those being against the eventual grand finals, when we were much further from full strength than them), and we've since made significant additions to not only our best 22, but also depth, and have another pre-season into the team that was on average the third youngest fielded each week last year, it's pretty safe to say that our internal expectations and aims would very much be to finish top four. Then contend for the flag.

We've pretty much pushed all our chips into the middle of the table (with the way we've recruited, etc) and even have the oldest list in the comp now (by R13 we could have 19 on our list who have played 100 or more games).

So anything less than winning at least one final again would be considered a fail. All things being equal (eg. no catastrophic injuries).

 

[Laphroaig]

However, to say we're just top 8 is just untrue.

As I said in earlier posts, if you have a squad that's competitive enough to win (we won the flag 2 seasons prior to last year)

Which of these teams is West Coast so obviously better than that top 4 is a walk up?

Port
Brisbane
Richmond
Geelong

Not to mention
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Both widely believed to be big improvers, especially the Bullies

and
The surprise packet who everybody uses hindsight to say "of course they're good, they had all the pieces in place and now they've fired".

As I said in earlier posts, if you have a squad that's competitive enough to win (we won the flag 2 seasons prior to last year)

Or to put it another way, this list is three years past its peak and on the downslide. Most of their most important players are well the wrong side of 30 and time is catching up with them.

I suggest that 7th or 8th would be par for the eagles, and if some of the old brigade turns up to season start cooked (and that line can be crossed in one off season), throw in a run of ageing body injuries as well and outside the 8 is not a fanciful notion at all.

Some people set a very low mark for their teams and are happy with mediocracy. However, the successful teams set high goals to strive to and the Eagles fall into this category.

Having around double the population support base of any other Club doesn't hurt either. And the WAFC being hard to distinguish from the Eagles' cheer squad.

I remember when everyone on Bigfooty laughed at the Tigers when they set their high goals back when Gale and co came on board.

If you set average goals then you're happy with average results.

Let us not forget that Richmond had not yet reached the dizzy height of mediocrity when it announced those goals.

 

[Off Tap]

Which of these teams is West Coast so obviously better than that top 4 is a walk up?

Port
Brisbane
Richmond
Geelong

I haven't suggested anywhere in any of my posts that WCE are "walk ups". Far from it as I fully understand how difficult it is to stay in the top 4 as it's near on impossible for WCE to win the flag from outside of it.

Our squad is obviously nearing the hill and with what we've invested in to get Kelly (who many thought might be the piece to winning another flag), we need to win a flag this year as it might be the last opportunity we get without having a reboot.

Not real rocket science to see that, hence why I had WCE down as having a high pass mark of winning the flag.

Or to put it another way, this list is three years past its peak and on the downslide. Most of their most important players are well the wrong side of 30 and time is catching up with them.

I suggest that 7th or 8th would be par for the eagles, and if some of the old brigade turns up to season start cooked (and that line can be crossed in one off season), throw in a run of ageing body injuries as well and outside the 8 is not a fanciful notion at all.

I agree that many can see our squad in this regard, however, if you asked any of the WCE hierarchy if 7th or 8th would be a pass mark, I highly doubt any of them would agree with you.

Last year was a fail and we finished the H&A in 5th spot to be bundled out by the Pies. That would be a failure for 99% of anyone on the WCE payroll.

As for the rest of your post, I totally agree with you 100%.

 

[juss]

Interested to discuss what supporters think that the pass mark for each team would be for the coming season. Going off their 2020 ladder position, here are my minimum expectations;

Port – flag
Brisbane – flag
Richmond – flag
Geelong – flag
West Coast – flag
Saints – top 4. Was going to say grand final but a rise of a couple of places will be a good effort
Bulldogs – top 4. Same thoughts as the Saints
Collingwood – finals. Chance to drop out so to stay in the finals after their post-season would be a fair effort
Melbourne – finals
GWS – not to drop back any further than they are now. A freefall would be terrible but it's on the cards after losing some decent players
Carlton – finals
Fremantle – finals
Essendon – not worse than 14th. Expecting them to fall so if they can stay out of the bottom 4 then a good result for me
Gold Coast – up four places and into the top 10. Needs to keep improving with the talent they have
Hawthorn – any rise on last year
Swans – any rise on last year
Kangaroos – not last
Adelaide – not last

As a minimum expectation, you've put 5 sides as needing to win the flag?

I've got to disagree with that. A flag is an exceptional result at any time, there's no way a flag is just a "pass" or a minimum expectation. Any of those teams would be ****ing thrilled and several will have performed above expectations if they win the flag in 2021. I know technically speaking any club that doesn't ultimately win it was just playing for second, but if Port Adelaide for example made top 4 and a Grand Final but lost, you'd hardly call it a fail.

Personally I think the below are a little more realistic as a starting pass mark, with not achieving it being considered a fail.

Port – Top 4 / Prelim Finals - They'll have a tougher time in a normal season and potentially harder draw

Brisbane – Top 4 / Prelim Finals - Exactly the same as Port Adelaide, 2020 was a huge chance for them and it gets harder for them now

Richmond – Grand Final - If we are back in Victoria then you'd expect the aim is another flag but probably disappointed if we don't at least play off for the GF

Geelong – Grand Final - Similar to Richmond back in VIC, but also they've certainly gone the "win now" strategy with their recruitment and anything less than the GF would be disappointing

West Coast – Top 4 / Semi finals or better - always strong in Perth, they've been a bit disappointing in finals recently so you'd want them either back in the 4 or at least winning a final or two

Saints – Top 8 / win another final - They just need to continue to be making and challenging in finals and it will come, winning a final again this year would be a good result

Bulldogs – Top 8 / win another final - Great midfield on paper and have improved the list, they need to atleast win a final or two

Collingwood – Top 8 - Chaos off season, they simply need to shut everyone up by making finals. Buckley in huge trouble if they slide.

Melbourne – Top 8 - They are just regular disappointments unfortunately, another mediocre miss wouldn't surprise.

GWS – Top 8 - Despite a drop down a little bit, they've still got a heap of talent above a lot of sides and that list really should be making finals

Carlton – Top 8 - Enough talk and waiting. They've been coming for years, it's time to perform.

Fremantle – Compete/challenge for finals but not a total failure if they just miss - they just need to compete around the mark

Essendon – Avoid the bottom 4 - Nothing to be excited about, they just need to not completely bomb as no one really expects finals

Gold Coast – Compete/challenge for finals but not a total failure if they just miss - Young and talented, they just need to compete around the mark and not bomb

Hawthorn – Avoid bottom 2
Swans – Avoid bottom 2
Kangaroos – Avoid bottom 2
Adelaide – Avoid bottom 2
- These bottom 4 clubs will probably still finish bottom, they'd all just want to avoid the spoon and ultimately the bottom 2, but bottom 4 is probably likely.

 

[Off Tap]

As a minimum expectation, you've put 5 sides as needing to win the flag?

Absolutely.

If you asked any of the players who play for Tigers, Cats, Port, Lion and WCE that don't win the flag in 2021 and I'd dare say that they would class it as a failure.

The 5 sides, with a bit of luck, all have squads that can win it.

 

[juss]

Absolutely.

If you asked any of the players who play for Tigers, Cats, Port, Lion and WCE that don't win the flag in 2021 and I'd dare say that they would class it as a failure.

The 5 sides, with a bit of luck, all have squads that can win it.

I mean, any side that doesn't win the flag would class it as a failure at the end of the day.

I'm not sure I agree with actually being that when you consider expectations. A lot of those sides can still have great years that improve on the previous and not necessarily call it a failure without winning a flag.

 

[Wallaby]

Absolutely.

If you asked any of the players who play for Tigers, Cats, Port, Lion and WCE that don't win the flag in 2021 and I'd dare say that they would class it as a failure.

The 5 sides, with a bit of luck, all have squads that can win it.

Richmond were proably the best side in the H&A 2018, finished 2 games and percentage clear on top and fell over in the 2nd last week. It was still a good year for the club and its supporters - it was a bad preliminary final. Not a failure by any means.

 

[Chaisa]

Adelaide - no spoon, kids to kick on
Brisbane - Grand Final
Carlton - Top 8
Collingwood - Top 8 + no major controversies
Essendon - avoid Bottom 2, younger players to show improvement
Fremantle - remain in finals contention for the whole season
Geelong - flag or bust
Gold Coast - maintain consistency throughout the year, remain in finals contention for most of the season
GWS - no significant implosion, remain in finals contention for the whole season, keep as many players as possible
Hawthorn - see Essendon
Melbourne - Top 8, arguably win a final
North Melbourne - see Adelaide
Port Adelaide - no major regression
Richmond - if they won in 2018 I'd argue "nothing to prove so can do whatever". As it is, would want to win a flag
St Kilda - Top 8
Sydney - show improvement and aim for a finish outside the Bottom 6
West Coast - significant finals run (rather than merely making it and being also rans)
Western Bulldogs - win a final

Looking at it now:

Adelaide - TICK
Brisbane Lions - CROSS
Carlton - CROSS
Collingwood - HUGE CROSS
Essendon - HUGE TICK
Fremantle - TICK
Geelong - CROSS
Gold Coast - CROSS
GWS - TICK
Hawthorn - TICK
Melbourne - HUGE TICK
North Melbourne - CROSS on Part 1, TICK on Part 2
Port Adelaide - TICK
Richmond - HUGE CROSS
St Kilda - CROSS
Sydney - HUGE TICK
West Coast - HUGE CROSS
Western Bulldogs - TICK

 

[lumpinee]

Looking at it now:

Adelaide - TICK
Brisbane Lions - CROSS
Carlton - CROSS
Collingwood - HUGE CROSS
Essendon - HUGE TICK
Fremantle - TICK
Geelong - CROSS
Gold Coast - CROSS
GWS - TICK
Hawthorn - TICK
Melbourne - HUGE TICK
North Melbourne - CROSS on Part 1, TICK on Part 2
Port Adelaide - TICK
Richmond - HUGE CROSS
St Kilda - CROSS
Sydney - HUGE TICK
West Coast - HUGE CROSS
Western Bulldogs - TICK

Lol,Richmond HUGE X
3 outta the last 5 flags

Not at all concerned,i like this pattern from our club

1967 Premiers,'68 miss finals
Premiers in '69 miss finals '70,Grand Finalists '72'73'74
Premiers 1980 missed finals '81 Grand Finalist '82( & odds on Faves)
Premiers 2017,'18 red hot faves to make it BTB,lose Prelim
Premiers 2020,'21 miss finals

Vfl & Afl is littered with the Premiers who failed to play finals the following season
Hawks '71 premiers missed finals '72 then went on to claim 2 more of the next 7

its far from disastrous when a team misses the finals the year after winning the flag as history show
especially Richmond history

 

[Milanista28]

I'd like to debut a few kids this year, Jones, Perkins, Cox, Reid, Bryan and Lachie Johnson the chances, I'd love to see Caldwell show he's going to be a good footballer for the next 200 games, I'd like to see McGrath, Langford, Parish, Ridley, Draper and Redman take further steps in their development.

But above all I'd like to see an identity/game plan and consistency.

Probably adds up to 6-8 wins but that doesn't worry me too much.

Ticked plenty of boxes for me from what I wanted pre season.