Analysis 2021 trade thread

[pulpdriver]

WOW! Times have changed, my first job I was on $60 a week and I thought I was doing well, pots were 60 cents at the Railway Hotel in Brisbane City though and a few years later first home cost $42,000.

Median wage is $72k. Please don't talk about the cost of owning a home.

 

[Nuggo]

I wonder what it means our cap is tight. Ie Collingwood tight or tight but still allowance for current player growth.

 

[T Rick]

I want a side with an even better crack at a flag in 2022 than we had this year, a fit Casboult is miles in front of Fullarton for that role.

I don't watch Carlton matches unless it is against us so am in no position to comment on Casboult much. All I recall is a guy that can bust packs and mark like a bull and then kick for goal horribly. I feel like we already have a lot of flaky goalkickers that we can't trust. McStay has been a revelation this year in terms of reliability but Joe, Charlie, Clugga, Berry and Zorko are really hot & cold types. I have no recollection of Levi rucking so have little idea on that aspect of his game. Happy for others to critique his strengths and fill in the gaps.

 

[pulpdriver]

I wonder what it means our cap is tight. Ie Collingwood tight or tight but still allowance for current player growth.

Maybe I'm misremembering but weren't we one of the only teams to not ask/demand our players take a pay reduction after the Covid impact? It's only logical we're feeling the squeeze.

 

[briztoon]

Median wage is $72k. Please don't talk about the cost of owning a home.

That has to be taking in to account part time workers, etc.

But your owning a home point is valid. It’s ridiculous how much the price of homes has increased in the past 20 years.

 

[M Malice]

I don't watch Carlton matches unless it is against us so am in no position to comment on Casboult much. All I recall is a guy that can bust packs and mark like a bull and then kick for goal horribly. I feel like we already have a lot of flaky goalkickers that we can't trust. McStay has been a revelation this year in terms of reliability but Joe, Charlie, Clugga, Berry and Zorko are really hot & cold types. I have no recollection of Levi rucking so have little idea on that aspect of his game. Happy for others to critique his strengths and fill in the gaps.

His set shot conversion improved over the last couple of years IIRC, his rucking is ok and at least can provide a contest with his big body.

 

[pulpdriver]

That has to be taking in to account part time workers, etc.

But your owning a home point is valid. It’s ridiculous how much the price of homes has increased in the past 20 years.

It's the median. Yeah, what's happened with housing in this country is a travesty. What happens when you don't invest in actually producing anything of value outside a few mineral exports and turn your real estate market into a major commodity. Every citizen deserves the right to own a home for a reasonable rate.

 

[Section 5]

He'd honestly be a worthwhile acquisition and is definitely an upgrade on Archie in the emergency ruck category, however I'm not sure he's a list fit. Would he be willing to come to Queensland to be a back for the same money as Casboult? No. He'll be looking for a spot where he can take the next step. We don't have that. We have developing rucks which is essentially what he'd be. We need a buster who's willing to be back up and take up no 1 role in an emergency and our cap means they need to do it for minimal rates. Levi can do that and with his skill set he can potentially be a part of the 22 until Hipwood is ready, potentially beyond, until 2023 anyway.

More than likely we don't get either Casboult or Lynch
Personally i think they would cost about the same $ wise but that is just a guess on my part
The issue for me is teams can always cover a R/F at a pinch but if Oscar goes down that is a different case altogether

 

[pulpdriver]

More than likely we don't get either Casboult or Lynch
Personally i think they would cost about the same $ wise but that is just a guess on my part
The issue for me is teams can always cover a R/F at a pinch but if Oscar goes down that is a different case altogether

I think Casboult would be a possibility, especially with this news dropping so soon after our list management meeting. Lynch would be less than 2% chance.

 

[BangyBangy]

His set shot conversion improved over the last couple of years IIRC, his rucking is ok and at least can provide a contest with his big 32 year old body.

FTFY

Levi is going to be 32 when the next season commences. Are we going to trade in some break glass in case of emergency player for the break glass in case of emergency player when he is injured more than Big O is?

 

[Section 5]

That has to be taking in to account part time workers, etc.

But your owning a home point is valid. It’s ridiculous how much the price of homes has increased in the past 20 years.

From the ABS site
Australia

Average weekly earnings, seasonally adjusted

	May 2021	% Change May 2020 to May 2021
	$
Males Full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings (a)	1,837.00	1.4
Full-time adult average weekly total earnings	1,921.10	1.6
All employees average weekly total earnings (a)	1,555.30	1.1
Females Full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings (a)	1,575.50	1.1
Full-time adult average weekly total earnings	1,597.80	1.3
All employees average weekly total earnings	1,069.10	-1.3
Persons Full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings (a)	1,737.10	1.4
Full-time adult average weekly total earnings	1,798.00	1.6
All employees average weekly total earnings (a)	1,305.80	0.1

(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

 

[Dalions]

That has to be taking in to account part time workers, etc.

But your owning a home point is valid. It’s ridiculous how much the price of homes has increased in the past 20 years.

We bought our house in 98’ for 130k
Have since put about 300-350k into it but still…

 

[pulpdriver]

We bought our house in 98’ for 130k
Have since put about 309-350k into it but still…

And what is your asset now worth relative to your investment?

 

[Dalions]

And what is your asset now worth relative to your investment?

Would think around 1.5

 

[pulpdriver]

Would think around 1.5

seems conservative based on current trends and appraisals.

 

[Dalions]

seems conservative based on current trends and appraisals.

You may be right, haven’t been keeping a close eye on the market.
Only about 3.5k from the City as the crow flies.

 

[Nuggo]

Maybe I'm misremembering but weren't we one of the only teams to not ask/demand our players take a pay reduction after the Covid impact? It's only logical we're feeling the squeeze.

Has been noted on this forum as the case but I am not 100% sure. Very hard to get accurate information on this kind of stuff.

 

[pulpdriver]

Has been noted on this forum as the case but I am not 100% sure. Very hard to get accurate information on this kind of stuff.

It's been mentioned a lot and referenced quite often in articles but like you said nothing concrete. I tend to think based on what we've heard and us suddenly being in a tight cap might be somewhat connected.

 

[M Malice]

FTFY

Levi is going to be 32 when the next season commences. Are we going to trade in some break glass in case of emergency player for the break glass in case of emergency player when he is injured more than Big O is?

You can't cover all contingencies BB.

 

[pulpdriver]

You can't cover all contingencies BB.

View attachment 1239101

(pictured Collingwood Football Club list 2022)

 

[POBT]

I wonder what it means our cap is tight. Ie Collingwood tight or tight but still allowance for current player growth.

I don't think we're in trouble with the cap. It is putting a limit on our ability to be active in trades though.

 

[briztoon]

From the ABS site
Australia

Average weekly earnings, seasonally adjusted

	$
	May 2021	% Change May 2020 to May 2021
Males Full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings (a)	1,837.00	1.4
Full-time adult average weekly total earnings	1,921.10	1.6
All employees average weekly total earnings (a)	1,555.30	1.1
Females Full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings (a)	1,575.50	1.1
Full-time adult average weekly total earnings	1,597.80	1.3
All employees average weekly total earnings	1,069.10	-1.3
Persons Full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings (a)	1,737.10	1.4
Full-time adult average weekly total earnings	1,798.00	1.6
All employees average weekly total earnings (a)	1,305.80	0.1

(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

That’s great, but doesn’t take in to account part time or casual work force.

My current place of employment, employs ~5000 people. Fully half are on permanent part time, with a fixed 30.4 hours a fortnight component and the rest rostered as needed.

My previous employer ALH, the largest pub and hotel company in Australia (170+ pubs in QLD alone), has a largely 80% casual work force. One of the smaller pubs I used to manage had 4 full time positions and 24 casuals.

 

[briztoon]

It's been mentioned a lot and referenced quite often in articles but like you said nothing concrete. I tend to think based on what we've heard and us suddenly being in a tight cap might be somewhat connected.

Anyone writing for AFL.com has access to the league’s figure, etc.

 

[pulpdriver]

Anyone writing for AFL.com has access to the league’s figure, etc.

And we should believe everything they say because there's zero chance they are influenced by their editors and beyond

 

[Section 5]

That’s great, but doesn’t take in to account part time or casual work force.

My current place of employment, employs ~5000 people. Fully half are on permanent part time, with a fixed 30.4 hours a fortnight component and the rest rostered as needed.

My previous employer ALH, the largest pub and hotel company in Australia (170+ pubs in QLD alone), has a largely 80% casual work force. One of the smaller pubs I used to manage had 4 full time positions and 24 casuals.

Most people are not on the average wage that is regularly quoted by the ABS and in turn the media
The ABS exclude certain employers.
Excluded are Defense forces, enterprises primarily engaged in agriculture, forestry and fishing, overseas embassies, employees based outside Australia + some others

I assume casuals are included in the three separate figures " All employees average weekly total earnings "
Male $1555 Female $1069 Persons (both) $1305
My reason for the "casuals" assumption is this paragraph

Also excluded are:

• casual employees who did not receive pay during the reference period;
• employees on leave without pay who did not receive pay during the reference period;
• employees on strike, or stood down, who did not receive pay during the reference period;
• directors who are not paid a salary;
• proprietors/partners of unincorporated businesses;
• self-employed persons such as subcontractors, owner/drivers, consultants;
• persons paid solely by commission without a retainer; and
• employees paid under the Australian Government's Paid Parental Leave Scheme.

Link if you want to delve further

Average Weekly Earnings, Australia, May 2024

Estimates of weekly earnings classified by industry, sector, state and territory

www.abs.gov.au