Player Watch 2022 AFL National Draft Discussion - read the pinned post

[Strapping Young Lad]

National AFL draft Monday November 28(first round only).
All other selections to be held on Tuesday November 29.
The pre-season and rookie drafts will then take place at 3pm (AEST) on Wednesday November 30.

 

[Dewnior]

My preference order for pick 7

Sheezel
Tsatas
Mackensie
Phillipou
Clark
Humphrey
Jefferson
Ginbey

This assumes Wardlaw gone right?

 

[Brishawk]

I can’t find the rule but there are several articles eluding to it talking about stopping clubs stockpiling late picks to match father son and academy bids so I’m not sure that’s right. I think once it starts everything is allowed and we could do those as live trades. Also I thought clubs couldn’t trade their next pick once a bid has been lodged which would scupper the 22 trade unless we did it prior. All of this should be freely available to us but I can’t find it

I’ve had a few goes at trying to find the rule. It definitely was the rule I just can’t find anything to suggest it has changed or not.

 

[Yardie]

I can’t find the rule but there are several articles eluding to it talking about stopping clubs stockpiling late picks to match father son and academy bids so I’m not sure that’s right. I think once it starts everything is allowed and we could do those as live trades. Also I thought clubs couldn’t trade their next pick once a bid has been lodged which would scupper the 22 trade unless we did it prior. All of this should be freely available to us but I can’t find it

This is such bullshit. The AFL is such an unprofessional organisation that we have no actual idea what the rules are around this. I also see that they are already looking at closing down the Bowes loophole.....

 

[HeHateMe]

The more I think about it the more i think brissy will trade 34 for 48 and our F3rd if Ashcroft doesn't get bid on at 1.

Then after the Ashcroft bid they will trade us back our F3rd and another F3rd for 50, 52, 65.

Overall they get an extra 369 points to use on Fletcher.

In: 34, F3rd
Out: 48, 50, 52, 65

Edit: might actually be more points then that since some of those picks might come in a few spots.

 

[HeHateMe]

To be extra greedy we could then on trade 41 and that F3rd to the dons if they get a bid for before 22.

41 + there other late picks would also come in a few spots and probably end up around 957 points, which could match a bid upto 14 with the discount.

Goto draft with 6, 22, 24, 34

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

The more I think about it the more i think brissy will trade 34 for 48 and our F3rd if Ashcroft doesn't get bid on at 1.

Then after the Ashcroft bid they will trade us back our F3rd and another F3rd for 50, 52, 65.

Overall they get an extra 369 points to use on Fletcher.

In: 34, F3rd
Out: 48, 50, 52, 65

Edit: might actually be more points then that since some of those picks might come in a few spots.

I would not be suprised at all if Brisbane and Hawthorn have an agreement about trading our later picks on draft night for one of their picks.

Given how cheaply we let Gunston go I'd suggest this is a fair chance.

 

[HeHateMe]

I would not be suprised at all if Brisbane and Hawthorn have an agreement about trading our later picks on draft night for one of their picks.

Given how cheaply we let Gunston go I'd suggest this is a fair chance.

Not even that, we would be helping them match the Fletcher bid without going into deficit. Same with dons they would get an extra F3rd instead of wiping out 22.

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

Not even that, we would be helping them match the Fletcher bid without going into deficit. Same with dons they would get an extra F3rd instead of wiping out 22.

Yeah for sure.

The problem is no one seems to know what the rules are and if they can actually do this on draft night.

Anyone have Twomey on any platforms to ask him?

 

[Hawks_Footy]

Yeah for sure.

The problem is no one seems to know what the rules are and if they can actually do this on draft night.

Anyone have Twomey on any platforms to ask him?

My understanding is the rules state you can’t swap picks back that you’ve previously traded with that side.. so for example we traded Dons our f2 they couldn’t just trade it back to us for 24.. but they could trade their own f2 for 24 and that still means the same net result…

 

[ML4Hodgy]

My understanding is the rules state you can’t swap picks back that you’ve previously traded with that side.. so for example we traded Dons our f2 they couldn’t just trade it back to us for 24.. but they could trade their own f2 for 24 and that still means the same net result…

That’s correct, but I wouldn’t be swapping F2s with the Dons for a 2 pick upgrade (although maybe the WB F2…).
F3 with extra picks/points for 22. Then 24 for their F2 would be a good outcome for us.

 

[Hawks_Footy]

That’s correct, but I wouldn’t be swapping F2s with the Dons for a 2 pick upgrade (although maybe the WB F2…).
F3 with extra picks/points for 22. Then 24 for their F2 would be a good outcome for us.

Agreed.. the only reason would be if they’d consider swapping pick 4 for pick 6 as part of the trade

 

[RoughandLove]

Quick question folks.

Do Brisbane list spots have to equal amount of picks they’ll need to match Father/Sons?

Been told this isn’t the case, if anyone can post an article it would be greatly appreciated.

‘A bit of noise around Humphrey.’


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[theiaofseed]

Quick question folks.

Do Brisbane list spots have to equal amount of picks they’ll need to match Father/Sons?

Been told this isn’t the case, if anyone can post an article it would be greatly appreciated.

‘A bit of noise around Humphrey.’


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Yes, the rule change was only activate for the 2020 season to accommodate covid and was changed back for the 2021 season.

 

[TDS7]

Quick question folks.

Do Brisbane list spots have to equal amount of picks they’ll need to match Father/Sons?

Been told this isn’t the case, if anyone can post an article it would be greatly appreciated.

‘A bit of noise around Humphrey.’


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

From swans page in 2020, it doesn't appear to be the case anymore.

Big ups on Humphrey though, if we like him I like him. His kicking worries a lot of guys (rightfully so), but his mechanics are a relatively easy fix and something we have worked on with CMac, Nash, CJ, and Butler over the past few years with very good success. Top-notch captain, leader, character, and a Petracca clone if there ever was one, but I assume he's going to Gold Coast or Essendon before he gets to us.

Edit: Apparently they've reverted back. It's an odd system, I'd rather just let clubs go in with all the picks they can get. It's not like anyone is sneaking around the very public and known list size rules.

 

[HeHateMe]

Would think after they used up the points value of their picks on Ashcroft and they are replaced by picks at the end of the draft they could trade in some more with value and wipe out those few picks.

This just makes logical sense to me, but I've been bamboozled by the AFLs whacky rules before.

 

[theiaofseed]

In order of preference.

Tsatas - If he somehow slips through Essendon
Clark - Safe bet for a solid footballer, I want a player with a bit more x factor but after ditching Mitchell and JOM that chance will still come.
Humphrey - Could be the best player in the draft if he could kick
Phillipou - Huge upset with his age and if he can gain consistency he will be a nice prospect.
Mackenzie - I've gone cold, has speed and elite skills but he struggles on the outside and I don't think his roving is good enough.
Keeler/Hayes - Love both these KP prospects but theyre more mid teens.
Hewett - I think the kid will be a star, feels like a Bailey or Butters.

 

[RoughysMullet]

To be extra greedy we could then on trade 41 and that F3rd to the dons if they get a bid for before 22.

41 + there other late picks would also come in a few spots and probably end up around 957 points, which could match a bid upto 14 with the discount.

Goto draft with 6, 22, 24, 34

Would be a great result - just not sure I’ve got the faith in McKenzie to get something like this done after the trade period… let’s hope I’m wrong…

 

[Mojo]

Would be a great result - just not sure I’ve got the faith in McKenzie to get something like this done after the trade period… let’s hope I’m wrong…

MM sort of needs to pick the eyes out of this draft to restore faith with supporters, doesn’t he?

I’ll back him in. It seems to be his forte; talent identification.

 

[burner1]

I think Brisbane have enough points for Ashcroft - so can wipe out their first 4-5 picks if bid comes pick 1 or 2. Then I think they have two future 3rd they can trade on night (might need a future 4th back) which might be enough for the points for fletcher depending where he is picked (given clubs seem to rate next years draft higher). Not sure that gives us much opportunity to be honest - as I don’t think brissie will want to open up heaps of list spots.

 

[FB19]

Am I wrong in understanding how this works? Hard as all the rules seem to be behind the wizard of Oz curtain. Is picking 36 same as 34 given lions have 34,35,36? Won’t 36 come into being 34 once Ashcroft bid on? May as well help lions with extra points to get deal done plus I thought first pick not tradeable once a bid lodged so if true could only get 35 anyway

 

[mknaven]

I suspect there is some good will between the hawks & Lions given the recent trade history, so if the rules allow I like to think the Lions would deal with us.

I'm not a draft specialist, but my observation is that the top kids tend to not have a critical flaw (B. Humphrey accuracy aside), whereas the kids taken later in the draft tend to be held back by something: Moore - size; Lewis - exposed form; Morrison - pace etc.

As we've shown, we can find good ones and they can have long & successful careers, just need to find a way around those 'shortcomings'.

I would be more than comfortable if we got someone who can have an impact up fwd w/ our 1st pick.

 

[moginie]

Have any of the SANFL watchers on here seen Casey Voss play, Sturt's B&F winner and the Fos Williams medal winner for the SANFL v WAFL game. At 21, is he worth a look at? His old man could certainly play!

I haven't seen that much of him, but he reminds me of a Clint Alleway/Andrew Moore type. Great leader at the lower level, but just not enough to make it at the elite level.

That's not that much of a criticism. The two players I've compared him to were absolute warriors at VFL/SANFL level.

 

[H00t]

Quick question folks.

Do Brisbane list spots have to equal amount of picks they’ll need to match Father/Sons?

Been told this isn’t the case, if anyone can post an article it would be greatly appreciated.

‘A bit of noise around Humphrey.’


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

As far as I’m aware you need the list spots. I don’t have an article for it but I believe, theoretically, if they had 6 list spots available, they would be able to use 11 picks to match bids for Ashcroft and Fletcher.

Their first 6 picks used to match Ashcroft, then they can use 5 picks with the remaining open list spots to match Fletcher.

I wonder if this is what we plan to take advantage of?

 

[bigmaxi]

Bailey MacDonald: 45+
A lot of dash, and decent disposal but I'm not a fan of his composure. When you step up to AFL level, the players get faster and the hits get harder, and I don't know if Bailey has the speed, awareness, or frame to take his game style up to the next level. I could see a team taking a punt on him, maybe a Swans, Saints, or Suns for a bit of speed of halfback in a project pick, but not one I'd be keen for us to grab.

Caleb Mitchell: 50+
A very solid wing at 18s level, but again not someone I think has the capacity to play AFL football. I'd compare him to Tom Phillips, decent size and tank but isn't a great kick over distance and doesn't bring any spark of speed or agility to let him play off a half-forward line. I like his hands in close and his composure in tight spaces, if he puts on a few kegs and moves into the guts I could see him getting a spot as a depth midfielder. North, Saints, and Dons would be relatively keen as a rookie option if I had to guess, but not confident in his draft chances.

Jakob Anderson: Rookie/VFL
Reality is tough, but Jakob's just not the build I'd want for an intercept defender. He isn't tall enough to play on even 3rd talls, and his strength will be tested in marking contests. I like his disposal, calm head, and competitiveness, but as an AFL footballer you need to have a weapon you can go to and I don't think he has that. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm just not keen on him.

Sorry for the rather dower post, but you just happened to mention three guys I'm just not a fan of. In fairness, I haven't focused on them or seen everything they do (I don't have a way to watch PSA footy), but all three strike me as good junior footy players, not AFL players. MacDonald and Mitchell have some scope to push the level, and I think it's likely they get picked up, but I wouldn't want them on my list. I know people say "shallow draft" and "Only 50 picks", but honestly there are a ton of guys I rate pretty well between 20-50 that I'd love on the list. When people say it's a shallow draft, just remember that often equates to a wide spread of talent from round two onwards. Players I'd like to take with our late picks if we kept them (and their standout traits):

Binns - Athletic and Smart
Long - Athletic and Crafty
Clarke - Crafty, Goal Kicker, Big game player
Drury - Tough leader, Hard nut, First possession winner, score involvements
Lemmey - Upside, marking, kicking
Munkara - Athleticism and goal sense
Magor - Strength and impact, goal kicking mid
Gallagher - Tank, penetrating kick
Teal - Athletic, kicking, calm head
Scully - Upside, frame
Kobe Ryan - Ball winning, attack on the footy
Billy Dowling - Accumulation, Impact per Kick (For an accumulator)
McCallum - Athletic, Marking, Tank

Thanks for this. Is there a list online of the top 50 draft kids?

 

[The hands of stone]

Sorry if this has been asked but what difference are we looking at between Mckenzie and Clarke , if it came to picking between the 2 ?