Player Watch 2022 AFL National Draft Discussion - read the pinned post

[Strapping Young Lad]

National AFL draft Monday November 28(first round only).
All other selections to be held on Tuesday November 29.
The pre-season and rookie drafts will then take place at 3pm (AEST) on Wednesday November 30.

 

[burner1]

Its not playing it safe. There is a list of players we have ranked in order once the draft starts. We will pick best available from that list for our first pick. We might pick some needs and wants after that pick once again ranked in order. So for instance with our second if we were picking a forward we would have ranked all forwards and pick the best availble. This is of course unless we ranked a player much higher and he slid we might be tempted to pick him instead. The list ranking is combination of our list management team and Sam.

How we rate or rank best available is obviously subjective. A conservative list team will likely rank the ‘safer’ talents higher. Eg how do you rank phillpou vs Clark - a lot depends on risk appetite and confidence of list team in backing their views on player development (vs proven performance). Not many list managers survive too many draft busts in a row so is obviously a bias to the safer picks.

 

[pushintheback]

If Dodo trades the pick hoping Phillipou slides, surely we take him at 7??

What a car crash that would be for him.

I cant see a club giving up a 2023 first or second round just to climb up a few spots in this years draft.

 

[TheFourPillars]

How we rate or rank best available is obviously subjective. A conservative list team will likely rank the ‘safer’ talents higher. Eg how do you rank phillpou vs Clark - a lot depends on risk appetite and confidence of list team in backing their views on player development (vs proven performance). Not many list managers survive too many draft busts in a row so is obviously a bias to the safer picks.

Actually i know there is a subjective component to it but its almost negligible and not as much as you think or as much as the average bigfooty poster picking their favourite player. The club has accumulated a mountain of data and have done heaps of interviews for the draft picks that we r interested in. To say that we are conservative or otherwise denies the mountain of work done watching videos going to games speaking to their coaches and speaking to the players. This work goes on throughout the year and obviously peaks near the draft when we are trying to short list and order the candidates. Each club has its own criteria and that is far from subjective. It shouldnt enter anyone's mind on here that we r being subjective or being conservative. We r guided by the data and our criteria and its a team effort and the coach is involved. To do anything else is unprofessional and doomed to failure

 

[theiaofseed]

Hollands

he was very good when he played

He's played 5 games and was decent, the hype around him and the forlorn out look on DBG is stunning to me.

 

[hawkheart]

Back in the day, before the Internet and Cal Twomey and microscopic analysis of potential draftees and their character + ability etc., I bet a young Dermott Brereton might have exuded the same level of confidence in his talent as young Philippou does today. We loved Derm for that belief in himself.

 

[hawkinoz]

He's played 5 games and was decent, the hype around him and the forlorn out look on DBG is stunning to me.

exactly.. DGB seems to be the better talent. Once he grows into his frame, he would be elite AF.
This yr and the next are his breakout years.

 

[Teamwork Talks]

if you pick again and both are available, who would you pick

I'd still pick Hollands

 

[Scrads]

If Giants want 4 picks + Rowston I'd offer them Dogs 2nd + 48 + 52 for 19 + 57

They have 1, 15, 18, 31 + Rowston (48 and 52) and go into next year with 2 firsts and 2 seconds

Then bundle 41, 50, 57 for 36.

Keep 63 for Vickery match.

We take 6, 19, 24, 36 + Vickery (63).

(I know this should have gone in the pick trade thread, just responding to the info in the article)

 

[hawkinoz]

If Giants want 4 picks + Rowston I'd offer them Dogs 2nd + 48 + 52 for 19 + 57

They have 1, 15, 18, 31 + Rowston (48 and 52) and go into next year with 2 firsts and 2 seconds

Then bundle 41, 50, 57 for 36.

Keep 63 for Vickery match.

We take 6, 19, 24, 36 + Vickery (63).

(I know this should have gone in the pick trade thread, just responding to the info in the article)

Dogs 2nd won't move the needle for 19.. Needs to be our F2 as Essendon etc are offering packaging their F2 & 22for 19 + F3 + late picks.

I would happily offer both our F2 & F2(WB) for 19 & 31, assuming we trade all our other picks except 65 for lions 35 & 36. This is if no other deals have eventuated to land F1's or get dons 22.

Will give us 6,19,24,31,35,36,63

We can then look to trade 2 of the 30's pick for F2's or F3's

 

[H00t]

Dogs 2nd won't move the needle for 19.. Needs to be our F2 as Essendon etc are offering packaging their F2 & 22for 19 + F3 + late picks.

I would happily offer both our F2 & F2(WB) for 19 & 31, assuming we trade all our other picks except 65 for lions 35 & 36. This is if no other deals have eventuated to land F1's or get dons 22.

Will give us 6,19,24,31,35,36,63

We can then look to trade 2 of the 30's pick for F2's or F3's

Problem is next years draft is seen as a lot more valuable than this years. Doubt we would get much at all for picks in the 30’s this year.

2 2nds next year are much more valuable than 19 and 31 this year.

 

[Since 2001]

I wouldnt be surprised to see gcs maybe take a key back, or a draft bolter, leaving us with humphrey

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

I wouldnt be surprised to see gcs maybe take a key back, or a draft bolter, leaving us with humphrey

 

[hawkinoz]

Problem is next years draft is seen as a lot more valuable than this years. Doubt we would get much at all for picks in the 30’s this year.

2 2nds next year are much more valuable than 19 and 31 this year.

it is only the top 10-15 that is strong. I would bet the next ones are no different to this yrs crop. Our F2 is the more valuable one the dogs F2 will get eaten up by McCabe and based on his ranking we are likely to move any F2's , F3's we have to 2025 & collect later picks or bundle them up to get a late F1( if some one is willing to trade).

if you look at cal's latest rankings. There are a heap of 20's pick that can develop at BH. If we have extra 20's pick we can get someone like Hustwaite or Gruzewski or Burgiel or charlie clarke or Darcy Jones with 24 or 31 or 35 and use 19 for someone like Brayden George or Ed Allan.

have posted on the Hypotheical draft thread the below

Going through the updated draft order, can see Crows, Cats,Dees, Port, Tigers, Eagles as most likely interested in the 30's picks if players they like are available and their F2 ior F3 may be up for grabs

Crows have F1, F2(NM), F3(pies)
Cats have only F1
Dees have only F1 & F2, both freos ( can trade F2)
Port have F2(pies), F3(NM) & f4 ( no F1, can't trade any)
Tigers have F2,F3,F4 ( no F1, can't trade any)
Eagles have F1, F2, F2(PA), F3, F3(PA), F4

 

[H00t]

it is only the top 10-15 that is strong. I would bet the next ones are no different to this yrs crop. Our F2 is the more valuable one the dogs F2 will get eaten up by McCabe and based on his ranking we are likely to move any F2's , F3's we have to 2025 & collect later picks or bundle them up to get a late F1( if some one is willing to trade).

if you look at cal's latest rankings. There are a heap of 20's pick that can develop at BH. If we have extra 20's pick we can get someone like Hustwaite or Gruzewski or Burgiel or charlie clarke or Darcy Jones with 24 or 31 or 35 and use 19 for someone like Brayden George or Ed Allan.

have posted on the Hypotheical draft thread the below

Going through the updated draft order, can see Crows, Cats,Dees, Port, Tigers, Eagles as most likely interested in the 30's picks if players they like are available and their F2 ior F3 may be up for grabs

Crows have F1, F2(NM), F3(pies)
Cats have only F1
Dees have only F1 & F2, both freos ( can trade F2)
Port have F2(pies), F3(NM) & f4 ( no F1, can't trade any)
Tigers have F2,F3,F4 ( no F1, can't trade any)
Eagles have F1, F2, F2(PA), F3, F3(PA), F4

I’ve read on here the top 12 or so of this draft are alright. Then throw a blanket over the next 18 and outside of that there’s nothing to get excited over.

Next years top end alone is head and shoulders above this year. Plus the depth is thought to be much higher. Hence North only getting a future 4th for 43.

If a bid for McCabe comes next year before our second that’s when we move it into 2024. We will see more value there than selling it cheaply now.

Especially when McCabe might not go that early.

 

[TylerDurden]

 

[BlackHawk72]

Feel like throwing up.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

He's played 5 games and was decent, the hype around him and the forlorn out look on DBG is stunning to me.

Yeah, and all the while DGB was playing really well over in WA, including a game where he toweled up McDonald.

 

[Jazzfan]

Not long now.

I suspect 95% of posters that wished a certain player or type will wax lyrical about whoever MM calls out.

Plenty of good options at our pick. I'll be happy with whoever as reality is like 99% of posters I have no ****ing idea and am only going off highlights or what I've read... It's been changing weekly who I want TBH.

We actually nailed the 2022 draft. Happy to back in the decision and tell my bombers mates they ****ed up passing on our guy.

 

[PAOKTSIS]

Seems like Tsatas is ours if Bombers pass on him.


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[HawthornHawk]

Didn't Clarko's son play for the Dragons this year? Guessing he knows most of the players pretty well already

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

What's everyone's thoughts on pick #24?

Obviously will depend on who is still available but interested what we do here.

Twomey mentioned Burgeil, Gruzewski, Jakob Ryan and bidding on Rowston in his phantom form guide today.

 

[Blackhawk42]

What's everyone's thoughts on pick #24?

Obviously will depend on who is still available but interested what we do here.

Twomey mentioned Burgeil, Gruzewski, Jakob Ryan and bidding on Rowston in his phantom form guide today.

Burgiel for mine.

Ryan would be a super addition for plenty of reasons even though he'll start his career as a half back flanker which isn't a need for us immediately.

 

[chopflop]

What's everyone's thoughts on pick #24?

Obviously will depend on who is still available but interested what we do here.

Twomey mentioned Burgeil, Gruzewski, Jakob Ryan and bidding on Rowston in his phantom form guide today.

I'd go Jones.

Also like the phantoms that have hotton and George getting to us but don't see it personally.

I think d'aloia will be a player but he is probably more a 30s + pick.

 

[Since 2001]

My preference for the draft

6. Bailey Humphrey then elijah tsatas then cam mackenzie.

24. Brayden george (unrealistic slide), ollie hotton, max gruezewski and henry hustwaite

 

[Rowie6]

I'd go Jones.

Also like the phantoms that have hotton and George getting to us but don't see it personally.

I think d'aloia will be a player but he is probably more a 30s + pick.

I like Darcy Jones speed but one skill that makes a huge difference with smaller players is if they play above there height eg Cyril, Crawford and Poppy!
How does he measure up in this side of his game ?


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