Player Watch 2022 AFL National Draft Discussion - read the pinned post

[Strapping Young Lad]

National AFL draft Monday November 28(first round only).
All other selections to be held on Tuesday November 29.
The pre-season and rookie drafts will then take place at 3pm (AEST) on Wednesday November 30.

 

[Billyc]

I think Cooper Stephens coming across may have influenced our draft plans . He’s a recent 1st round DP who did nothing wrong at sadly the best team in the comp when given an opportunity, I don’t think he is viewed as making up numbers rather being a piece of the puzzle with expectations of playing a vital role . From what I saw of the U18 cships a similar player would be McKenzie which is why we may have gone cold on him and looking for something different.

Confident Stephens will have zero influence on draft plans. He’s a speculative pick up from a rival club where he wasn’t getting games. That won’t inform what we do with our first pick, maybe a later pick (if anything).

 

[Billyc]

My belief is that Tsatas is still on top of our list.
I think we have Humphrey slightly ahead of Phillipou, but aware that he's most likely going to Gold Coast. But both offer something that we need in a match-winning fwd/mid.

My order:
Tsatas
Humphrey
Phillipou
Clark
McKenzie
Ginbey

I think McKenzie would be our choice if we decided to trade down.

Seems pretty clear we don’t know what Essendon will do and to a lesser degree Gold Coast. So putting plenty of time into multiple players. I’m confident if Tsatas is there we will take him, but also doubt he will. I think Essendon will take him

 

[TylerDurden]

Interest in Ginbey could be a beautiful smoke screen.

Get West Coast to trade 8 and 20 for 6 and 24.

The play here could be that we like somebody more specifically around pick 20 than we do between 6-8.

Clark, Mackenzie and one of Phillipou or Tsatas would be every chance of being available at 8 if Ginbey goes before us.

I'm not comfortable allowing the Cats to take Tsatas at 8, if he's our player.

I'm still holding that pick.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I'm not comfortable allowing the Cats to take Tsatas at 8, if he's our player.

I'm still holding that pick.

Would happen on the night after Essendon take Tsatas (in this scenario).

If we rate Mackenzie, Clark and Phillipou quite evenly we would only lose access to 1 by trading 6 to West Coast for them to acquire Ginbey.

 

[Brant]

Interviewing so many highly rated prospects allows us to plan for all scenarios, including any potential trade that shuffles us back a few spots to gain another notable selection. It tends to show us that it's a fairly even 5-10 range, with most being midfielders that can add something that we're currently lacking.
It also puts pressure on clubs below us to offer something decent for pick 6 if they believe their number 1 target won't get through to them.

If West Coast want Ginbey, and they know we are keen, they might offer us their pick 8 for our 6, whilst adding something of value in return. In a scenario like this we would still have access to one of Tsatas/Phillipou, Clark, McKenzie (If we rate them all fairly equal), whilst getting something extra.

I still think we will select best available between Tsatas & Phillipou at pick 6, but we must plan for all scenarios, including live trades.

Machiavellian, it might be, but I like that we start building relationships with Top 10 Players now, regardless whether or not we get to draft them. They'll be out of contract 2yrs later & it's almost certain that a couple will be homesick / lacking opportunity / disillusioned in that time. We'd be crazy not to use this opportunity for our best pitch, then keep in regular contact. If nothing else, it means we're extremely informed in making our selection.

 

[JaegarTime]

Crossing my fingers Humphrey makes it to us. I honestly think the kid will become a star.

Tsatas seems to me that he might be more a Josh Kelly lite.

 

[TDS7]

Alright, I've got a two-hour flight coming up in an hour (hopefully), so I've got some time to do a final little write-up for our first two picks. Now that the order seems to have settled, here are the options.

Needs:
Impactful Midfielder - We have a great core developing with any of Worpel, War, Stephens, CMac, and Jai providing a great base. Now what we need is the one that wins the game. The Petracca to our Vineys, the Dangerfield to our Selwoods, the Dusty to our Cotchins.

Key Forward - Kozi, Lewis, Jeka, Ramsden, and Serong are not enough to take our forwardline to the finals. Sure, a few could come out really crisp and build themselves into the star we need, but if there's a chance at a potential superstar forward we should not be looking to far away.

Forward 50 Goal Kicking - Losing Gunner, and with Bruest and Chad on the way up to our Brisbane-based retirement home in the next few seasons, we will be in desperate need of goals. Players who can spring up as medium forwards and get on the board will prove invaluable over the next few seasons.


Pick 6

Elijah Tsatas - 187cm 80kg - Balanced Midfielder
The kid with the most superstar potential in the draft, Elijah is truly one of a kind. He has the speed, agility, height, composure, and tank to become a force in the AFL. His midfield production is rivaled only by Will Ashcroft, averaging 33.8 disposals, 7 marks, and 8.16 inside 50s over his six NAB league games. He's a player Hawthorn haven't had in a while, he uses his height and length to get his hands to the footy first in stoppages and extracts well for a player of his slight build. When out in space he becomes a real threat, using his insane agility and great speed to get the ball into dangerous positions for his forwards. When his team needs him he lifts, single-handedly willing his team to victory over Sandringham in the final round with 38 disposals and 13 inside 50s. Starting as a wing and moving in the guts as the year went on, Elijah's relentless attack and determination will the ball forward more than they stop it going back, with his defensive efforts showing some disappointing clips this year. This is definitely an issue that will require a good club with strong team culture and competent leadership to correct, but if he was to build that defensive side of his game he'd be the standout player of the draft class. Evidently, Essendon are skeptical that they have what it takes and may pass on the guy who should be a top 3 talent. Tsatas also has strong ties to the Greek community around East Melbourne, making interstate clubs wary of his dedication. The most talked about flaw in Tsatas's game is his kicking, which I feel is slightly overblown as an issue. In space he can be a brilliant kick, occasionally biting off more than he can chew with difficult passes or simply just bad decision-making. When you get 20 kicks a game some are going to go awry, especially as he transitioned into stoppages while recovering from a broken foot. I'll put this simply guys, we need to take Elijah if he is here. His flaws are fixable, his talent is unteachable. He brings consistency, upside, a high floor and had an unlucky year and the lowest he might fall is us. I would even trade up using the WBF2 with Essendon if it meant securing him. He is a better talent than Cadman and Sheezel in my (and a few others') eyes and had the year gone differently could very well have been the clear number-one pick. I'd back our talent development team to mold his undoubted upside into a force that defines our next era. I know he has his detractors, but I have never been more confident that a player would work out in our system more in my life.

Bailey Humphrey - 185cm 86kg - Medium Forward/Inside Midfielder

Power personified, Bear is the ultimate game-winner. Leading his team to a minor premiership and Grand Final berth, Bailey is a courageous and fierce competitor with an unrivaled attack on the footy through both the air, the stoppage, and on the ground. A blitzing athlete with the strength to play as a bull and the marking to play as a deep forward, Humphrey is the answer to our "gamewinner" conundrum. Playing like Jai out of the midfield, he tackles relentlessly and is a booming kick around the ground, hitting more targets with good consistency around the ground. His goal-kicking is another story, with a 21 goal 19 behind final line doing him favours through some of his games. What he brings to the club is aggression, a constant sense of danger for the opposition, and brilliant character that could signal a future captain with his vocal on-field directional and tactical talk being heralded by his coaches as game-winning. He needs to work on his fitness to play as a full time midfield, liely follwing the Petracca route of playing as a power half-forward before working his way into some CBAs, and his goal kicking routine requires some work to get consistent and repeatable. But for his upside, character, and sheer agression he's right up there with Tsatas in "must take if there"-land. Tsatas gets the edge for his insane production as a midfielder (did I mention his 33.8 disposals and 8 inside 50s yet?), but there would be plenty of reasons a club might see Humphrey as a better prospect.

Mattaes Phillipou - 192cm 89kg - Medium Forward/Midfielder

I've made my wariness about Phillipou no secret, but there's a definite upside that the club would be frothing over. I'll start this off with the biggest talking point about Phillipou: I love the FIGJAM. The "****-off, I'm good enough to do this" attitude is what we need in crunch time, the guy that still thinks he's got a game-winner up his back pocket even when we're down two goals with thirty seconds on the clock. He's not as elegant as some of the other kids, but I really don't care. He's not a toxic guy, he seems like good fun to get around and he's just supremely confident he can get it done. I like it. What I'm not a massive fan of is his midfield game. I know he racks up the possies and hits the scoreboard, but going through his games it's clear how he gets the footy. He's the last receiver type, the in-and-under like D'Aloia and Ryan work the footy out to him and he gets it forward. In terms of winning his own footy, he scarcely takes the footy after taking contact and will hang outside packs to seagull a loose footy or outlet handball. From there he can use his blitzing speed and booming boot to hit the scoreboard and open up games, but without his teammates, he reminds me of a Jack Billing's type float-along half-forward looking for a cheap footy instead of going and getting it. If he develops an inside game, he becomes the ultimate Bont clone. His marking as a forward is technically brilliant without being super impressive in packs and under pressure, with his leap and speed lending themselves to a beautifully crafted ou-the-back tactic where he sits at the front of the pack and then loops around to lead perpendicular to the kick and get a clean run at the footy. He reminds me a little of Gunner with a less impressive one-on-one craft as a forward. If we take him we'll be confident we have the team to feed it to him, or that we have the staff to bulk up his core and thighs to take contact standing up better and use his height and frame to bust games open when we need him too. I'd also like to see him build his fitness, he really tends to drop off into ball-watching when he get tired and can slip defensively.

Other Options
Those are the three main options it looks like we're going with, but I'd be remiss if I didn't get around to the others who could pop up at our pick.

Cam Mackenzie - 188cm 81kg - Balanced Midfielder
A good, solid producer with great skills and stoppage work. HIs biggest knock is his lack of verticality, he performs really poorly overhead as a tall midfielder. A solid contributor, but without the dynamic upside of THP. Looking an outside chance at our pick for the moment. I would prefer him to Phillipou myself, but I doubt clubs would.

Jhye Clark - 181cm 77kg - Inside Midfielder
A solid contributor with great leadership potential and very good aerial ability, he falls behind some others due to his supposed lack of upside. He also doesn't get the same production as Ashcroft or Tsatas, and doesn't kick goals as well as Humphrey or Phillipou. Another I would prefer over Phillipou, but not a player I think we pick up.

I was going to do Pick 25 as well, but looking at the options it's impossible to know who will be there without doing a whole RMC worth of profiles. After the first round is done I'll try and get up a write-up for the talents still available. As always, I'm happy to answer any questions regarding players so long as they are directed in an inflammatory and rage-inducing manner. It's just more fun that way.

 

[TylerDurden]

Would happen on the night after Essendon take Tsatas (in this scenario).

If we rate Mackenzie, Clark and Phillipou quite evenly we would only lose access to 1 by trading 6 to West Coast for them to acquire Ginbey.

Then you're handing them Phillipou. No.

I'd suggest we have an order. And Geelong would most likely take our 2nd preference of that order.

Not for mine.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

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Some of your best work

 

[TylerDurden]

 

[Blackhawk42]

Then you're handing them Phillipou. No.

I'd suggest we have an order. And Geelong would most likely take our 2nd preference of that order.

Not for mine.

We won't care about what the opposition are doing depending on the order of our draft board.

The only way we'd be 'handing' Geelong anybody is if we rated Phillipou the next best available talent but did the pick swap anyway. If Clark was our next in line and he fell to us then we've won.

 

[TylerDurden]

 

[TylerDurden]

We won't care about what the opposition are doing depending on the order of our draft board.

The only way we'd be 'handing' Geelong anybody is if we rated Phillipou the next best available talent but did the pick swap anyway. If Clark was our next in line and he fell to us then we've won.

Won't matter. Phillipou already pumping up how he'd like to play at the Dons. Sounds done.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Im very critical of Knightmare

This is fairly spot on

 

[TDS7]

I don't mind this version of KM, at least he acknowledges his lists aren't other clubs and tries to predict the draft as much as he can.

Tsatas, Clarke, and Van Es is a good haul. Van Es especially could be anything, his athleticism could be retooled as a lead up forward where he straight line speed can be better utilised.

 

[TylerDurden]

Im very critical of Knightmare

This is fairly spot on

Yep I think he's nailed this one.

 

[RIOLINWITPUNCHS]

Won't matter. Phillipou already pumping up how he'd like to play at the Dons. Sounds done.

Tsatas said the same thing yesterday.

 

[KeeperLeaguer]

I can't access twitter on my work computer. What's his handle?

By the way, you know when you've had enough of the draft? When you're convinced that you're drafting Phillipou, just as convinced you're drafting Mackenzie, and Clark. And Humphrey.
And you're also convinced Tsatas is slipping to us.

I have a headache. My man at the club says that if Tsatas isn't available we're definitely drafting Phillipou. Now he tells me we're just as likely to draft Mackenzie. Not even they know!

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Take away the Essendon gushing I really enjoy this kid's brashness. We have enough hard working types - if this kid backs up his bumptious manner on the training track and on gameday then I would love him at the club.

 

[Blackhawk42]

First two picks are spot on.

However Van Es, Teal and Vickery are all defenders. Massive overkill from a list management perspective. He probably just selected 'best available' in his opinion at these selections.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

First two picks are spot on.

However Van Es, Teal and Vickery are all defenders. Massive overkill from a list management perspective. He probably just selected 'best available' in his opinion at these selections.

Thought the same - would much prefer some of the taller forward options being picked around that mark.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Tsatas's weaknesses, being a non-defensive (avg 1.6 tackles) midfielder and not a great kick may work in our favour with Essendon. They have a few unaccountable midfielders as it is, in particular Parish and Shiel. They also have Zerrett who is a great user and is more accountable.

All three are more balanced midfielders as opposed to a hard bodied clearance specialists, which is what they need. They do have Hobbs that will likely develop into that player, and they do have Stringer and Perkins who play as those mid/forwards. I'd say McGrath is their most accountable midfielder, but he's small, an average kick and is better in the backline or on the wing.

They could also be losing Parish and Shiel could be phased out.

It's hard to see what they will do. Both Tsatas and Phillipou are big talents, but neither address a huge need in their midfield.

 

[2008wasoverDEW!]

First two picks are spot on.

However Van Es, Teal and Vickery are all defenders. Massive overkill from a list management perspective. He probably just selected 'best available' in his opinion at these selections.

Completely agree. We need to get more Key Forwards/Medium Forwards. Our forward potency is almost equal to our midfield deficiency. The majority of the forwards on our list are unknown quantities.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Interesting that our second rounder gets pushed out to 28. Our picks from our trades may not come into the 30's after all - which was the biggest coping point on here after the trades were made.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Those with a better knowledge of Tastas and/or player development - with his lack of a defensive side what are the odds of him being able to develop this? Are we going to be banking on hoping that the one way he does run is so damaging that it makes up for not running the other way - or is this something he can develop?