List Mgmt. 2022 List Management: Draft, Trade and FA Pt2: Electric Boogaloo

[Lach72]

Don’t forget several of those early drafts were compromised. Especially 2011 and 2012. Players like o’meara, hogan, jezza cameron, Treloar, Jack Martin, Brad crouch, Dylan Shiel, Jamie Elliott and a few others should have been in the top 10 of those drafts but were made available to GWS and GC in various ways that diluted the pool for everyone else.
The same thing is actually going to happen when tas comes in so it would be a good time not to be at the bottom of the ladder.

Been thinking about this a bit and is one reason why I'm not unhappy about Jackson.

Think Tas is a 2026/7 proposition.
This young list is going to be prime by then, but in the next two or three years I'd like Pearce/Taberner replacements lined up plus some mids and forwards

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

Did you remove all the rookie upgrades and 2nd round on academy picks? If not it'll artificially make 3rd, 4th and later picks look more attractive.

i'm sure i missed a few.

 

[GingerDocker]

Been thinking about this a bit and is one reason why I'm not unhappy about Jackson.

Think Tas is a 2026/7 proposition.
This young list is going to be prime by then, but in the next two or three years I'd like Pearce/Taberner replacements lined up plus some mids and forwards

So, you'd like some backs, some mids and some forwards?

Greedy much?

 

[freo_leo29]

A bit of useless trivia, or not so, to pass the time. Looking at success and longevity of pick selection. There may be a few errors but pretty close.

I'm not so adverse to us using our picks on good prospects that may take a little longer to develop rather than trying to trade further up the order. Trading several picks to get to an earlier pick does'nt necessarily stack up given these stats (chances given up for a single greater chance).

What was it about the 2013 crop that have been so successful, 33 out of 80 have played over 110 games


150 games or more since selection in 2010 draft

1-10 =8 (2 at 148)

11-20=4

21-30=5

31-40=2

41-50=1

51-60=1

61-70 =2



2011 130 games +

1-10 =5

11-20=6

21-30=3

31-40=1

41-50=1 (L Neale)

51-60=1

61-70 =2



2012 120 games

1-10 =8

11-20=2

21-30=2

31-40=1

41-50=2

51-60=3

61-70



2013 110 games

1-10 =6

11-20=5

21-30=9

31-40=2

41-50=3

51-60=4

61-70 =2 (Karl Amon pick 68 Taberner pick 70)

71-80=2



2014 =100 games

1-10 =5

11-20=5

21-30=3

31-40=1

41-50=2

51-60=3

61-70=3



2015 85 games

1-10 =6

11-20=6

21-30=3

31-40=0

41-50=2

51-60=3

61-70 =2



2016 70 games

1-10 =6

11-20=7

21-30=7

31-40=4

41-50=2

51-60=3

61-70 =1

71-80=2

The fact that you have taberner listed has me worried that you've included all the other rookie upgrades


If that's the case then the bottom picks are all getting pumped up by that

Altho they were all rookies (lower than the ND) technically in the first place but still, the ranges can't really apply

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Team, vote for the best game preview of the year when you get a chance

Win Prizes - Season 2022 Game Previews

Welcome back everyone. So I finally found my To Do list from a while ago, and written in red between "Mow the back yard" and "Get your act together" is "Wrap up the Game Preview thread" which I must have overlooked. Boy is there egg on my face! We ended up having ten game previews this season...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Superkoops]

How

Upgrade Shultz??? Cant be done

Why not??

He and Banfield are on the rookie list. They can both stay there for another year or be upgraded to primary list. No decision by Freo list management as yet. They can confirm essentially at the back end of the draft or immediately following the completion (ie before the Rookie draft).

 

[more_of_bito]

How

Upgrade Shultz??? Cant be done

I don’t know enough about the complexity of the draft but I understood that we would likely upgrade rookie (Schulz ) with our last pick . Again I’m far from an expert so could be wrong.
I’m purely guessing, but strongly feel that we are setting up to move up the draft this year. Maybe F2(NM) and 40ish for a clubs F2nd and pick in the 20’s this year. Allows us to ensure we have rnd 2,3,4 in both 2022 and 2023.

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

The fact that you have taberner listed has me worried that you've included all the other rookie upgrades


If that's the case then the bottom picks are all getting pumped up by that

Altho they were all rookies (lower than the ND) technically in the first place but still, the ranges can't really apply

don't worry - be happy. As i said there are one or two only out of the seven years i have selected. The number of games played since each draft year sorts out most of the Rookie upgrades anyway- so they are not in the numbers.

you can check out for yourself on footywire year draft history...easy to find.

 

[Dockeroo]

We are in a position to take a higher risk higher celing type around pick 30 this year.
That’s the range players like Shai Bolton

29

Shai Bolton

Age

26

Ht

176cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

12.7

3star

K

9.2

4star

HB

3.5

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.0

1star

Bailey Fritsch and Chad Warner

1

Chad Warner

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

2star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

4star

CL

0.0

1star

have been selected in recent years.

 

[Superkoops]

I don’t know enough about the complexity of the draft but I understood that we would likely upgrade rookie (Schulz ) with our last pick . Again I’m far from an expert so could be wrong.
I’m purely guessing, but strongly feel that we are setting up to move up the draft this year. Maybe F2(NM) and 40ish for a clubs F2nd and pick in the 20’s this year. Allows us to ensure we have rnd 2,3,4 in both 2022 and 2023.

I’ve said this before we can’t trade F2. We can only trade one of the F3’s or our F4. We could offer up our F3 allocated to Carlton to move a few spots forward from our current pick 30. I reckon we’re holding 43,44 which will both move forward.

Our picks 65 and 70 (yes they have moved forward today from 67 and 76) could be swapped out for a F4 for one of the clubs down the back end wanting to push forward. Noting Brisbane will be slotted a heap of picks at the end of the draft, as will Adelaide.

For example after bids on Ashcroft, Fletcher and Michalanney (as well Davy who will likely absorb a pick in the top 30), we could do the following:

33 (Freo) & F3 (Carl) > 30 (Coll)
58 (Freo down from 65) > F4 (Ade)

Noting that Adelaide use up picks to select Michalanney.

 

[Dockeroo]

I’ve said this before we can’t trade F2. We can only trade one of the F3’s or our F4. We could offer up our F3 allocated to Carlton to move a few spots forward from our current pick 30. I reckon we’re holding 43,44 which will both move forward.

Our picks 65 and 70 (yes they have moved forward today from 67 and 76) could be swapped out for a F4 for one of the clubs down the back end wanting to push forward. Noting Brisbane will be slotted a heap of picks at the end of the draft, as will Adelaide.

For example after bids on Ashcroft, Fletcher and Michalanney (as well Davy who will likely absorb a pick in the top 30), we could do the following:

33 (Freo) & F3 (Carl) > 30 (Coll)
58 (Freo down from 65) > F4 (Ade)

Noting that Adelaide use up picks to select Michalanney.

Would we look to package up 43 and 44 for pick 34 from brisbane?
In saying that those picks will be 41 and 42 after Ashcroft is matched and pick 34 will be 35 so we would be in effect swapping 40 & 41 for 35..

 

[Superkoops]

Would we look to package up 43 and 44 for pick 34 from brisbane?
In saying that those picks will be 41 and 42 after Ashcroft is matched and pick 34 will be 35 so we would be in effect swapping 40 & 41 for 35..

Nope - going off previous history (Valente and NOD) where we have upgraded a second round pick around the position we will be (33) Walls may try to ship our F3 (Carlton) around to move up 3-4 positions if he is concerned a player we really want (say Jones for example) won’t be on the board at our pick first pick. I got the impression from Bell and Walls in interviews after the most recent pick swap that they like the idea of having two early 40’s in a row.

 

[Tony_Clifton]

We are in a position to take a higher risk higher celing type around pick 30 this year.
That’s the range players like Shai Bolton Bailey Fritsch and Chad Warner have been selected in recent years.

For the sake of fairness can you list three where they were a bust.

 

[freo_leo29]

For the sake of fairness can you list three where they were a bust.

Forster, Valente, Tom Lamb

off the top of my head lol

 

[Ysaye]

For the sake of fairness can you list three where they were a bust.

Pick 30 since 2016

2016 Sam McClarty
2017 Tom De Koning
2018 Will Hamill
2019 Harrison Jones
2020 Caleb Poulter
2021 Judson Clarke

Or specifically Pick 33 since 2016?

2016 Willem Drew
2017 Tom McCartin
2018 James Jordon
2019 Brock Smith
2020 Shannon Neale
2021 Mitchito Owens

 

[Tony_Clifton]

Pick 30 since 2016

2016 Sam McClarty
2017 Tom De Koning
2018 Will Hamill
2019 Harrison Jones
2020 Caleb Poulter
2021 Judson Clarke

Or specifically Pick 33 since 2016?

2016 Willem Drew
2017 Tom McCartin
2018 James Jordon
2019 Brock Smith
2020 Shannon Neale
2021 Mitchito Owens

Looking for examples of selecting the higher risk higher ceiling player and it being a bust.

 

[Dockeroo]

Looking for examples of selecting the higher risk higher ceiling player and it being a bust.

Elijah Taylor - pick 34 in 2019

 

[Dockeroo]

If 2 of the players we draft next week are still on the list in 2027 and playing regular footy it will be a big success.
3 would be exceptional.
4 - you would we looking at one of the all time great AFL draft hauls from any club with picks in a similar range. I’d say there’s a 1% chance that happens.

 

[Tony_Clifton]

Elijah Taylor - pick 34 in 2019

Just need two more

 

[Tony_Clifton]

If 2 of the players we draft next week are still on the list in 2027 and playing regular footy it will be a big success.
3 would be exceptional.
4 - you would we looking at one of the all time great AFL draft hauls from any club with picks in a similar range. I’d say there’s a 1% chance that happens.

Went very close in 2016. 38 Sean Darcy, 41 Brennan Cox, 66 Luke Ryan. Taylin Duman in the rookie draft but was delisted at end of 2021 so just missed your five year exceptional threshold.

 

[Dockeroo]

Just need two more

There is heaps. At that range there are far more busts than success stories. Every now and again there is an absolute gem selected in that range though.
Harley Balic (RIP) would have been another higher risk selection in that range that on talent alone was better than pick 37 but sadly he had other challenges.
Francis Evans at pick 42 by Geelong a couple years ago was an obscure riskier selection - everyone raved that Wells had grabbed another diamond from absolutely nowhere but he was delisted a few weeks ago.

 

[Tony_Clifton]

I was trying to think of a Harley Balics name but couldn't quite find it amongst the grey matter.

 

[Dockeroo]

Went very close in 2016. 38 Sean Darcy, 41 Brennan Cox, 66 Luke Ryan. Taylin Duman in the rookie draft but was delisted at end of 2021 so just missed your five year exceptional threshold.

In the 28 year history of the Fremantle football club you would probably put 2016s draft effort at number one. It kinda proves my point. You cant expect that every year but if we do it again it would be amazing.
Geelongs 2016 effort was also unbelievable. Stewart, Henry, o’connor Zac Guthrie, Ratugolea and narkle all with picks after 40. Crazy stuff.

 

[Tony_Clifton]

In the 28 year history of the Fremantle football club you would probably put 2016s draft effort at number one. It kinda proves my point. You cant expect that every year but if we do it again it would be amazing.
Geelongs 2016 effort was also unbelievable. Stewart, Henry, o’connor Zac Guthrie, Ratugolea and narkle all with picks after 40. Crazy stuff.

It's hard to get a read on it because it's rare that clubs take 4 players after pick ~40 in a draft year.

 

[more_of_bito]

I’ve said this before we can’t trade F2. We can only trade one of the F3’s or our F4. We could offer up our F3 allocated to Carlton to move a few spots forward from our current pick 30. I reckon we’re holding 43,44 which will both move forward.

Our picks 65 and 70 (yes they have moved forward today from 67 and 76) could be swapped out for a F4 for one of the clubs down the back end wanting to push forward. Noting Brisbane will be slotted a heap of picks at the end of the draft, as will Adelaide.

For example after bids on Ashcroft, Fletcher and Michalanney (as well Davy who will likely absorb a pick in the top 30), we could do the following:

33 (Freo) & F3 (Carl) > 30 (Coll)
58 (Freo down from 65) > F4 (Ade)

Noting that Adelaide use up picks to select Michalanney.

My suggestion was to trade a future 2nd for Essendons future 2nd. That is ok right?