Resource 2022 Stats thread

[RussellEbertHandball]

I know. And it is weird!

The sport doesn’t use point differential, but percentage. And yet for isolated games, percentages are disregarded.

Once, I’ve tried to check whether something like a “% differential” (just adding up game % for the season) would be a better measure than pure %, but I gave up. Too much work.

Points differential would have made sense when you had state leagues, but someone said lets use percentage,. Imo I think it is better in a national comp to have % where you have 20% of games played under a roof, a big chunk of games are played when its wet and raining in 1 or 2 cities and beautiful weather in 1 or 2 other cities, so pts differential is unfair.

Also its not fair to have pts differential when you have an uneven FIXture and not an equal draw.

The NBA is high scoring game like footy eg 95 v 82 is normal score, but because they play all their games in perfect indoor conditions they use points differential if they need to seperate teams for ranking purposes. The NBL in Oz go with pts but once upon a time went with %, before they realised this wasnt right.

Edit basketball the courts are a standard size, but footy grounds arent so that is also another reason for %. Also in the early days of state leagues they may not have been even draws. VFL became 12 teams in 1925 and werent a 22 game season until 1970.

 

[GremioPower]

Points differential would have made sense when you had state lagues, but someone said lets use percentage,. Imo I think is better in a national comp to have % where you have 20% of games played under a roof, a big chunk of games are played when its wet and raining in 1 or 2 cities and beautiful weather in 1 or 2 other cities, so pts differential is unfair.

Also its not fair to have pts differential when you have an uneven FIXture and not an equal draw.

The NBA is high scoring game like footy eg 95 v 82 is normal score, but because they play all their games in perfect indoor conditions they use points differential if they need to seperate teams for ranking purposes. The NBL in Oz go with pts but once upon a time went with %, before they realised this wasnt right.

Edit basketball the courts are a standard size, but footy grounds arent so that is all so another reason for %. Also in the early days of state leagues they may not have been even draws. VFL became 12 teams in 1925 and werent a 22 game season until 1970.

It's fine. I don't mind percentage at all. It totally makes sense. [I could even argue that it may make sense for basketball, if one wants to promote defense.]

I have just speculated whether it would be better using average match % instead of season %.

It would look something like this:



P.S.: I have changed the pic, because it seems that the average result is different when using Vic % or SA %.

 

[WheeloRatings]

Is there a stat on %? I mean, wouldn’t a 85-30 loss (35.29%) be way worse than a 125-80 loss (64.00%)?

SA %
85-30 (26.09%)
125-80 (39.02%)

They are both 50+, but they seem to be very different.

If so, a 40+pt loss could actually be worse than a 50+pt loss. Still, that wouldn’t be shown in the stat above.


WheeloRatings

West Coast make it onto the list of most consecutive matches with a % of less than 50 but that ended with their loss to GWS.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

West Coast make it onto the list of most consecutive matches with a % of less than 50 but that ended with their loss to GWS.

View attachment 1407788

Bloody well done, that was quick.

The early glory days of St Kilda dominate again. No surprise.

St Kilda were a poor team in the old VFA and the only reason they got invited by the other 7 clubs to set up the VFL is because their home ground was fenced off and they could collect enterance fees.

 

[WheeloRatings]

Bloody well done, that was quick.

The early glory days of St Kilda dominate again. No surprise.

St Kilda were a poor team in the old VFA and the only reason they got invited by the other 7 clubs to set up the VFL is because their home ground was fenced off and they could collect enterance fees.

I didn't know that history but yes, they certainly dominate a lot of the (negative) records in their first 6-7 years in the VFL.

The most recent teams to have a combined percentage of <35 over a five game stretch are:

2022 West Coast 34.7%
2012 GWS 27.1%
1930 North Melbourne 32.1%

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

In 2011 when Port were poor, at the end of Rd 10 when we had played all 10 games, 17 teams, had just won our 2nd game for the year and went to 2-8, moved up to 16th after being 17th the previous week, we had percentage of 70.6%

Over the first 2 games our percentage was 51.6% after Rd 1 thumping of 75pts by collingwood and after Rd 2 and lost by 18pts to WCE and it was 65.7%.

Over the next 8 weeks Port won 2 games and lost 6, 4 of them by 50pts or more and percentage floated between 56.2% after Rd 3 loss to Geelong by 79pts and then peaked at 74.6% after winning the Rd 4 showdown by 32pts and lost to GC in Rd 5 by 3pts.

Between Rd 11 and Rd 19 we played 7 games, lost them all, 2 by 50pts or more, had 2 byes, were 17th and percentage of 69.7%. Not a great position but not in the ball park of previous really poor cellar dwellers.

But Rd 20 loss to collingwood by 138pts, Rd 21 loss to hawks by 165pts and then Rd 22 loss to bulldogs, being 57pts down at 1/4 time and lost by 60pts, and our percentage dropped to 61.2%. This was approaching the bottom 25 percentages in V/AFL history if we got to under 60%.

After winning the final game at Adelaide Oval pre development, we finished with 64.2% and 3-19 for 16th.

Our 2011 as bad as it was, with people questioning our existence, was bad, but overall isn't as bad as North's WCE's season so far, it was just that it was supercharged over 2 games and 1 quarter.

After 20 games in 2011. (last 2 were a 7pt loss + 8pt win).
We lost 10 games by 50+pts, 8 by 10+ goals and 2 by 100+pts.

WCE are already at 7 games by 50+pts, 5 by 10+ goals and 1 by 100+pts are 1-9 with 51.5%.

NM are already at 6 games by 50+pts, 5 by 10+ goals and 1 by 100+pts are 1-9 with 53.6%.

 

[shewho]

Just noticed this surprising stat:

In games in 2022 where Rozee has attended more than 50% CBAs we are: 5-0

In games in 2022 where Rozee has attended less than 50% CBAs we are: 0-6*

* This includes 2 games he did not play.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Matter of Stats summary at end of Rd 11. Will put up next one after the byes rounds are completed.

We are so boring that the author didn't even bother making a comment about us.

We have the worst conversion rate in the league 115 goals 128 pts = 47.3% and
the oppo have the worst conversion in the league against our defence 110 goals 120 pts = 47.8%

Don't know if that's good defence, rushing a lot of behinds or maybe windy at AO + other grounds and the Cairns game has made the oppo conversion look bad.

MatterOfStats 2022 : Team Dashboard for Round 11 — Matter of Stats

The Ranking on Dashboard Metrics data appears below and shows that every team in the Top 8 on the ladder is in the bottom 8 on at least one metric, and in the bottom 6 on at least one metric for all but one of the teams. Ranking on Scoring Shot Conversion and Q2 performances are, relatively speakin

www.matterofstats.com

The Ranking on Dashboard Metrics data appears below and shows that every team in the Top 8 on the ladder is in the bottom 8 on at least one metric, and in the bottom 6 on at least one metric for all but one of the teams.

Ranking on Scoring Shot Conversion and Q2 performances are, relatively speaking, unimportant in terms of teams’ ordering on the ladder.

The full Team Dashboard appears below and shows that, amongst other things:

• Brisbane Lions has converted at 63% but allowed their opponents to convert at only 53%
• West Coast are still yet to win a Q2
• GWS have scored 63% and Carlton 59% of their points in the 1st half of games
• ................

and nothing about Port

We have the 13th most shots on goal and our oppo have had the 6th most shots on goal.

Inside 50's averages per game from WheeloRatings site AFL Team Statistics
Port 51.5 v Oppo 49.1

 

[GremioPower]

We are one of the defensively LUCKY teams (we may even be the luckiest!):



—

Offensively, we have been unlucky (or inaccurate):

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I was watching the game at the Gabba last night and as Brisbane were dominating at home again, I thought of tribey's post in here how we haven't made AO a fortress in general, but even when we have been a strong side apart from 2014. His last post re the night games at AO on page 1 was;

46. R02 2022: Hawthorn (?) L 64
47. R03 2022: Adelaide (?) L 4
48. R04 2022: Melbourne (?) L 32
since then
49 R07 2022: Western Bulldogs (?) W 17

We have played 3 twilight games since then and won them all WCE, Essendon and GC and have improved our record from 60-40 to 65-40.

When Brisbane Lions do well, ie make finals they dominate at the Gabba and that's why it was given the nickname Gabbattoir.

1999-2000 18-7 inc 3-0 in finals
2001-2004 48-6 inc 6-0 in finals - Port at Footy Park were 47-8 but inc 4-3 in finals
2009.......... 9-3 inc 1-0 in finals

2019-2021 29-6 inc 1-4 in finals ie only lost 2 home and away games in 3 seasons, covid is only part of the reason why.
2022 ........ 7-0 (after WB game)

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Our record against the other 11 sides pushing to make the 8.

Home ....................... Away
.................................Lose Rd 1 Brisbane
Lose Rd 4 Melbourne
................................Lose Rd 5 Carlton
................................Win Rd 7 St Kilda in Cairns
Win Rd 8 Western Bulldogs
................................Lose Rd 10 Geelong
................................Lose Rd 13 Richmond
Win Rd 14 Sydney
Win Rd 15 Gold Coast
...............................Lose Rd 16 Fremantle

At home 3-1, Away 1-5 ........ sides 13th-18th, At home 2-1, Away 1-1 includes away showdown

Top 11 sides games remaining
Away
Rd 18 Melbourne in Alice Springs
Rd 20 Collingwood at MCG

Home
Rd 19 Geelong
Rd 21 Richmond

Above history says we will lose 3 or all 4 of these games. Probably will beat Richmond if we have been knocked out of finals.

Bottom 6 sides
Rd 17 GWS and Rd 23 Adelaide + Rd 22 Essendon at Docklands.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Forgot about this great page on AFL Tables going back all the way to 1965.

Crows have won the free kick count for every game at home this year so far.

AFL Tables - Free Kicks

2022 Free Kick Tallies
	Home			Away			Finals			Totals
Team​	W-D-L	For-Agn	%	W-D-L	For-Agn	%	W-D-L	For-Agn	%	W-D-L	For-Agn	%
Adelaide	8-0-0​	219-141​	155.32​	3-0-4​	144-176​	81.82​				11-0-4​	363-317​	114.51​
Brisbane Lions	6-1-0​	154-138​	111.59​	2-0-6​	173-182​	95.05​				8-1-6​	327-320​	102.19​
Carlton	6-0-2​	198-155​	127.74​	4-1-2​	146-138​	105.80​				10-1-4​	344-293​	117.41​
Collingwood	4-0-4​	175-161​	108.70​	4-0-3​	145-137​	105.84​				8-0-7​	320-298​	107.38​
Essendon	2-0-5​	144-150​	96.00​	4-0-4​	160-163​	98.16​				6-0-9​	304-313​	97.12​
Fremantle	5-0-3​	184-158​	116.46​	3-0-4​	140-164​	85.37​				8-0-7​	324-322​	100.62​
Geelong	5-0-2​	162-133​	121.80​	2-1-5​	169-183​	92.35​				7-1-7​	331-316​	104.75​
Gold Coast	3-0-5​	178-173​	102.89​	2-0-5​	137-145​	94.48​				5-0-10​	315-318​	99.06​
Greater Western Sydney	8-0-0​	175-136​	128.68​	3-1-3​	136-162​	83.95​				11-1-3​	311-298​	104.36​
Hawthorn	3-1-3​	176-165​	106.67​	3-0-5​	138-173​	79.77​				6-1-8​	314-338​	92.90​
Melbourne	4-0-4​	156-153​	101.96​	5-0-2​	142-137​	103.65​				9-0-6​	298-290​	102.76​
North Melbourne	3-0-4​	158-156​	101.28​	1-1-6​	163-181​	90.06​				4-1-10​	321-337​	95.25​
Port Adelaide	2-2-3​	137-129​	106.20​	1-0-7​	167-191​	87.43​				3-2-10​	304-320​	95.00​
Richmond	4-0-4​	159-171​	92.98​	2-0-5​	132-187​	70.59​				6-0-9​	291-358​	81.28​
St Kilda	5-1-1​	154-136​	113.24​	1-0-7​	151-209​	72.25​				6-1-8​	305-345​	88.41​
Sydney	4-0-3​	174-167​	104.19​	4-1-3​	168-187​	89.84​				8-1-6​	342-354​	96.61​
West Coast	4-0-4​	167-165​	101.21​	0-1-6​	125-151​	82.78​				4-1-10​	292-316​	92.41​
Western Bulldogs	5-1-1​	161-120​	134.17​	4-1-3​	177-155​	114.19​				9-2-4​	338-275​	122.91​

As can be seen from prior years. WCE for first year at new Perth Stadium in 2018 and about 15 years at Subiaco dominated due to the noise of affirmation.

Its almost as if after years of pointing it out to people the umpires decided not to be so blatant the last few years.

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

Some interesting stats that give some insight into where things went right and wrong in 2022. Courtesy of WheeloRatings and some of my own stuff.

Rankings in the league by some key metrics:

Midfield

Contested Possession Differential: 11th
Ground Ball Gets Differential: 4th
Centre Clearances Differential: 12th
Stoppage Clearances Differential: 5th
Overall Clearances Differential : 5th

Turn Over Differential: 6th

Inside 50s Differential: 9th

Midfield stats looks really weird to me. Very strange to have such a difference in rakings for contested possession and ground ball gets. My hypothesis is that a lot of the contested possession negative actually comes from losing contestd around the ground (particularly in marking contets) and not in clearance. Ground ball suggests our midfield is doing ok.

Suck at centre clearances but ok in stoppage. I think this is where not playing a ruckman hurts.

Turnover differential is middling. This is mostly due to our turnovers, we have the 3rd most turnovers per game in the league.

Defence

Overall Defensive Efficiency (Goals Against / Inside 50's Against): 3rd
Defensive Efficiency Against Tall players: 8th
Defensive Efficiency Against Medium players: 2nd
Defensive Efficiency Against Small players: 7th

Overall defence is still pretty good. We are excellent against medium players (height between 183cm and 190cm) but less good against talls and smalls.

Offence

Overall Offensive Efficiency (Goals For / Inside 50's For): 10th
Offensive Efficiency For Tall players: 11th
Offensive Efficiency For Medium players: 4th
Offensive Efficiency For Small players: 17th

Overall offence stinks. Our medium players (which are mostly midfielders) do OK. Tall forwards are poor and we got nothing from smalls.

Summary

In summary, we do some stuff well. Our stoppage clearances are good and out ground ball holds up. Our defence is very strong, especially against medium height players. We get a reasonable amount of goals from our medium height players (AKA midfielders).

Areas for improvement:

1. Centre clearance. Need to win more centre clearances. We should play a (competent) ruckman, that will help.
2. Turnover.
3. Defence against talls. Don't see how this is going to get much better with the players we have on the list.
4. Basically our entire offensive set up. We need more goals from our talls and smalls. In terms of talls, Dixon being fit the entire year will help and Georgiades kicking straighter will also help. In terms of smalls, picking up Rioli and Fantasia being fit will be massive.

I think most of our issues are fixable with our current list, possibly except the tall defence issue. If we can get 2-3 of the points above right in 2023 whilst also maintaining the strengths we had in 2022 we should make top 4.

Top 4 is very attainable with a few improvements.

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I think most of our issues are fixable with our current list, possibly except the tall defence issue. If we can get 2-3 of the points above right in 2023 whilst also maintaining the strengths we had in 2022 we should make top 4.

Top 4 is very attainable with a few improvements.

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

4th is irrelevant. 4th is doable if we can win 60% of the close games, not lose 70% of them.

You want to win a flag you have to finish top 3 and be better than who you play in the GF.

22 of 23 flags since the current finals system came into force in 2000, have been won by teams from the top 3 slots, ie 1st 8x, 2nd 7x, or 3rd 7x. 4th has only made 3 GFs in 23 seasons..

 

[Janus]

Here's some stats for you.

• If a team wins or ties the kick count, it wins the game 77.9% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the inside 50 count, it wins the game 74.2% of the time
• If a team concedes less or ties turnovers, it wins the game 73.2% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the uncontested possession count, it wins the game 69.5% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the contested possession count, it wins the game 69.4% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the mark count, it wins the game 69.2% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the gather count, it wins the game 65.2% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the loose ball get count, it wins the game 63.3% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the contested mark from team count (i.e. a player takes a contested mark while the team has possession), it wins the game 62.4% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the clearance count, it wins the game 61% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the handball receive count, it wins the game 60.9% of the time
• If a team has less or ties rebound 50s, it wins the game 60.6% of the time
• For those who give a shit about hitouts and hitouts to advantage? Winning those stats wins games 51.4% and 54.2% respectively...in other words, it doesn't make much of a difference at all.

Against Brisbane, we had 10 more kicks (+), 3 more inside 50s (+), 2 more turnovers (-), 12 more uncontested possessions (+), 2 less contested possessions (-), 8 less marks (-), 2 less clearances (-) and 4 less rebound 50s (+). All in all, the result could have gone either way, but if Dixon and Fantasia were playing we probably would have won. Hell, if Aliir and Gray hadn't gone off the ground we would have won.

Against Hawthorn, we had 20 more kicks (+), 12 more inside 50s (+), 5 more turnovers (-), 68 more uncontested possessions (+), 7 more contested possessions (+), 2 more marks (+), 24 more clearances (+) and 24 less rebound 50s (+). By every known statistic, we should have won this game easily and would have if Dixon, Aliir, Gray and Fantasia had been playing.

Against Adelaide, the kick count was even (+), we had 5 more inside 50s (+), 2 less turnovers (+), 3 less uncontested possessions (-), 6 less contested possessions (-), marks were even (+), clearances were even (+) and 8 less rebound 50s (+). Because of the quality we had missing (Dixon, Aliir, Gray, Fantasia, Finlayson (who was out of form)) we literally were at the level of an Adelaide outfit minus Walker and Seedsman. This is why I maintain that it will take Adelaide three more years before they are competitive with a full strength Port Adelaide. The result at the end of the year showed that we would have flogged these losers with Dixon, Aliir, Gray and Finlayson playing.

Against Melbourne, we had 63 more kicks (+), 7 less inside 50s (-), 2 less turnovers (+), 74 more uncontested possessions (+), 24 less contested possessions (-), 59 more marks (+), 9 less clearances (-) and 4 more rebound 50s (-). This is one of those exceptions that proves the rule games, because all those possessions went nowhere - it was the football equivalent of parking the bus. Do I think we would have went for it more if Dixon, Gray, Aliir and Fantasia had been on the field? You bet I do. Still think we would have lost though.

Against Carlton (who I never rated to make finals), we had 37 more kicks (+), 3 less inside 50s (-), 7 less turnovers (+), 13 less uncontested possessions (-), 25 less contested possessions (-), 50 more marks (+), 5 less clearances (-) and 2 more rebound 50s (-). Personally, I'd like to know what the stats were between each half, because this was basically a continuation of the Melbourne game in the first half, where it was about retaining possession. Now, we are missing Dixon, Lycett and Fantasia.

Against Geelong - 5 more kicks (+), 14 less inside 50s (-), 6 more turnovers (-), 7 less uncontested possessions (-), 29 less contested possessions (-), 26 more marks (+), 11 less clearances (-) and 10 more rebound 50s (-). Completely dominated in almost every phase of the game. Having a full selection of players wouldn't have made a difference to this result.

Against Richmond - 9 more kicks (+), 16 less inside 50s (-), 31 more uncontested possessions (+), tied for contested possessions (+), 3 more marks (+), 7 more clearances (+) and 13 more rebound 50s (-). I firmly believe that Lycett and Fantasia would have helped us win this game, based on the way that it played out.

Against Fremantle, we had 28 less kicks (-), 1 more inside 50 (+), 7 less turnovers (+), 14 less uncontested possessions (-), 3 more contested possessions (+), 25 less marks (-), 17 less clearances (-) and 2 less rebound 50s (+). Does having Lycett and Fantasia tip the balance toward us? I think so.

Against Melbourne, we had 25 more kicks (+), 6 more inside 50s (+), had 9 more turnovers (-) 53 more uncontested possessions (+), 1 more contested possession (+), 21 more marks (+), 13 more clearances (+) and 8 less rebound 50s (+). What does this tell you? It tells me that in the modern game, turnovers kill you, especially when you're playing against a small forward like Pickett.

Against Geelong, we had 19 more kicks (+), 10 more inside 50s (+), broke even on turnovers (+), 54 more uncontested possessions (+), 11 more contested possessions (+), 21 more marks (+), 2 less clearances (-) and 13 less rebound 50s (+). The difference? Instead of keeping Dixon up forward, the lack of Lycett meant that we had to play him in the ruck to get any sort of ascendency. We should have won this game.

Against Collingwood, we had 5 more kicks (+), 3 less inside 50s (-), 6 more turnovers (-), 75 more uncontested possessions (+), 15 more contested possessions (+), 10 more marks (+), 8 more clearances (+) and 2 more rebound 50s (-). This was the third week in a row where we won most of the stats that matter when it comes to determining a win but still lost. Yes, Lycett and Fantasia would have made a difference.

Against Richmond, the dam broke - we had 35 less kicks (-), 18 less inside 50s (-), 8 more turnovers (-), 13 more uncontested possessions (+), 31 less contested possessions (-), 16 less marks (-), 6 less clearances (-) and 13 more rebound 50s (-). With finals nothing more than a pipe dream thanks to the previous three losses, the players couldn't match it with a finals bound team.

 

[longdonkey]

It's fine. I don't mind percentage at all. It totally makes sense. [I could even argue that it may make sense for basketball, if one wants to promote defense.]

I have just speculated whether it would be better using average match % instead of season %.

It would look something like this:

View attachment 1407655

P.S.: I have changed the pic, because it seems that the average result is different when using Vic % or SA %.

An average of an average doesn't mathematically work. A mathematician explained it to me once but I got lost half way through.

That's what they say and without any reason to doubt them I'll go along with it.

 

[longdonkey]

Some interesting stats that give some insight into where things went right and wrong in 2022. Courtesy of WheeloRatings and some of my own stuff.

Rankings in the league by some key metrics:

Midfield

Contested Possession Differential: 11th
Ground Ball Gets Differential: 4th
Centre Clearances Differential: 12th
Stoppage Clearances Differential: 5th
Overall Clearances Differential : 5th

Turn Over Differential: 6th

Inside 50s Differential: 9th

Midfield stats looks really weird to me. Very strange to have such a difference in rakings for contested possession and ground ball gets. My hypothesis is that a lot of the contested possession negative actually comes from losing contestd around the ground (particularly in marking contets) and not in clearance. Ground ball suggests our midfield is doing ok.

Suck at centre clearances but ok in stoppage. I think this is where not playing a ruckman hurts.

Turnover differential is middling. This is mostly due to our turnovers, we have the 3rd most turnovers per game in the league.

Defence

Overall Defensive Efficiency (Goals Against / Inside 50's Against): 3rd
Defensive Efficiency Against Tall players: 8th
Defensive Efficiency Against Medium players: 2nd
Defensive Efficiency Against Small players: 7th

Overall defence is still pretty good. We are excellent against medium players (height between 183cm and 190cm) but less good against talls and smalls.

Offence

Overall Offensive Efficiency (Goals For / Inside 50's For): 10th
Offensive Efficiency For Tall players: 11th
Offensive Efficiency For Medium players: 4th
Offensive Efficiency For Small players: 17th

Overall offence stinks. Our medium players (which are mostly midfielders) do OK. Tall forwards are poor and we got nothing from smalls.

Summary

In summary, we do some stuff well. Our stoppage clearances are good and out ground ball holds up. Our defence is very strong, especially against medium height players. We get a reasonable amount of goals from our medium height players (AKA midfielders).

Areas for improvement:

1. Centre clearance. Need to win more centre clearances. We should play a (competent) ruckman, that will help.
2. Turnover.
3. Defence against talls. Don't see how this is going to get much better with the players we have on the list.
4. Basically our entire offensive set up. We need more goals from our talls and smalls. In terms of talls, Dixon being fit the entire year will help and Georgiades kicking straighter will also help. In terms of smalls, picking up Rioli and Fantasia being fit will be massive.

I think most of our issues are fixable with our current list, possibly except the tall defence issue. If we can get 2-3 of the points above right in 2023 whilst also maintaining the strengths we had in 2022 we should make top 4.

Top 4 is very attainable with a few improvements.

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

My analysis of these contested possession stats is this:

• centre clearance stats are poor because we have no dominant ruckman
• our clearance stats get padded by winning a lot of ball at secondary ball-ups where we have +1 at the contest
• our ground ball gets are also padded by outnumbering the opposition at the contest.
• our turnover differential is high because we turnover going into 50 because we are -1
• our defensive efficiency is good because we are a good intercepting team which is due to pressure on the ball handler
• we defend with the ball in an effort to keep the oppositions opportunities to score at a minimum.
• all offensive metrics have to be viewed in light of playing 5 v 6 in most instances

This is Hinkleyball some of it works but the end game is that it doesn't stack up against all 17 other teams and certainly can be defeated by a good strategic coach.

 

[longdonkey]

Here's some stats for you.

• If a team wins or ties the kick count, it wins the game 77.9% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the inside 50 count, it wins the game 74.2% of the time
• If a team concedes less or ties turnovers, it wins the game 73.2% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the uncontested possession count, it wins the game 69.5% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the contested possession count, it wins the game 69.4% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the mark count, it wins the game 69.2% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the gather count, it wins the game 65.2% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the loose ball get count, it wins the game 63.3% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the contested mark from team count (i.e. a player takes a contested mark while the team has possession), it wins the game 62.4% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the clearance count, it wins the game 61% of the time
• If a team wins or ties the handball receive count, it wins the game 60.9% of the time
• If a team has less or ties rebound 50s, it wins the game 60.6% of the time
• For those who give a s**t about hitouts and hitouts to advantage? Winning those stats wins games 51.4% and 54.2% respectively...in other words, it doesn't make much of a difference at all.

• Against Hawthorn, we had 20 more kicks (+), 12 more inside 50s (+), 5 more turnovers (-), 68 more uncontested possessions (+), 7 more contested possessions (+), 2 more marks (+), 24 more clearances (+) and 24 less rebound 50s (+). By every known statistic, we should have won this game easily and would have if Dixon, Aliir, Gray and Fantasia had been playing.

Even for you that is an outrageously bad call.

This game is one of the more blatant examples of our flawed game plan being ruthlessly exposed.

We had control of the ball and can't score and get exposed on turnover all classic symptoms of Hinkleyball being defeated.

 

[Janus]

Even for you that is an outrageously bad call.

This game is one of the more blatant examples of our flawed game plan being ruthlessly exposed.

We had control of the ball and can't score and get exposed on turnover all classic symptoms of Hinkleyball being defeated.

Oh really?

I went back and watched this game. Please tell me which of these incidents has anything to do with the game plan.

18:58 - Lycett intercepts on the wing, then handballs to Darcy Byrne-Jones who runs past him boundary side with 11 Hawthorn players ahead of him, 9 of them inside attacking 50. Of course it's going to be a turnover. Ends up being a 50m penalty and a certain goal to Hawthorn after a crocked McKenzie lags behind his player getting back inside 50 and encroaches the protected area.

13:46 - Finlayson hits the post from a set shot. The resultant kick in turns into a goal to Wingard after Bruest squirts out a kick through traffic into space on the outside.

8:46 - Drew has a clear shot on goal from field play - misses.

6:03 - Georgiades has a set shot - misses.

4:47 - Boak has Sinn to his right in clear space going inside 50 but instead blasts away to Georgiades on a three on one. If Dixon was there, completely different story.

1:46 - for all the talk of Bonner being a wing, I've never seen it. Letting a ball out the front of a contested situation to an unguarded player is not good.

Quarter ends 3-20. Should have been 18-20 at the very least.

2nd quarter

19:16 - Amon has a shot on goal - misses. Rozee gets tackled below his waist, doesn't gain possession of the ball at any time - no free kick.

19:04 - Sam Skinner allows Mitch Lewis to mark uncontested because he's ****ing around doing I have no idea what, something Aliir would have never allowed, the subsequent switch of play leads to...

18:38 - Jack Gunston kicks a goal out of his ass after Lachie Jones fails to kill a ball properly in defense.

18:04 - Amon has another shot on goal - again he misses.

17:11 - Lycett finally kicks a goal.

15:01 - Gunston again turns Jones inside out - I'm sorry, he might have been a defender in his younger days, but he's not agile enough to play the role in the AFL. Results in a goal to Hawthorn.

14:10 - Houston kicks a goal from around 50 in a quick reply.

12:51 - Rozee converts after getting a free kick for being slung to the ground without the ball.

12:05 - Jones handballs into the corridor inside opposition 50 to space, and is lucky that the Hawthorn player who gathered the ball missed the goal. Like I said, he's not a defender at AFL level.

11:11 - Sinn gets the ball on the boundary and has a chance to deliver inside 50 but kicks the ball out of bounds instead.

10:55 - Skinner ****s up yet again by letting a ball bounce, which results in another Hawthorn inside 50. Luckily it didn't result in a goal.

9:00 - Sinn marks at 50m. Normally he would have the distance, but we now know he had groin issues this year. Doesn't even register a score.

7:33 - Boak has a set shot in the pocket - hits the wrong side of the football and fails to score.

6:53 - Jones kicks the ball out on the full coming out of defence in space.

5:54 - Wingard gets a free kick from a sloppy as **** Boak tackle and converts.

5:26 - Hawks score through Nash who roves a ball on the boundary because Duursma didn't push back hard enough and allowed Nash to get in front of him goal side.

5:16 - from a centre clearance, Hawthorn gets out the front again and luckily only scores a point. Montgomery was moved on from the midfield coaching role for a reason - you can be aggressive as you like, but you have to setup so that you win the ball first.

4:47 - Georgiades inexplicably does this shit little dinky kick which turns the ball over. Luckily it doesn't result in a goal.

2:35 - Georgiades has a set shot from 45 - misses.

1:15 - Bonner kicks inside 50 to a 3 on 2. Of course the 3 on 2 wins out, because the 2 doesn't include Dixon. The resultant counter runs the full length of the field...

0:43 - Because Jones has been well shit on Gunston, McKenzie goes to him - and Gunston skins him after a bad bounce and kicks another goal.

Score ends at 24-52. Should have been 49-52. I'm not even going to include the fact that Aliir and Dixon weren't playing, just Port missing easy shots at goal that have nothing to do with the game plan.

Third Quarter

19:47 - Finlayson drops an easy mark at 50m, which results in a turnover and...

18:54 - Another goal to Hawthorn through Mitch Lewis, who is now being defended by Ryan Burton because guess what, Sam Skinner is ****ing SHIT. We're now getting into the territory where players start ignoring tactics and start just chasing jumpers because they are trying too hard.

16:17 - Rozee takes a mark at around 40m - kicks a point from a set shot.

15:43 - Hawthorn bites off a switch inside defensive 50 that Butters and Powell-Pepper reach and Powell-Pepper scores a goal.

15:30 - Powell-Pepper wins a centre clearance only to drive the ball in too deep and turn it over.

13:22 - After Marshall marks in the pocket but fails to register a score, Burton marks the subsequent Hawthorn kick and from a set shot kicks...a point.

11:44 - Motlop scores a goal from congestion.

10:20 - Sinn gets caught ball watching at a stoppage, and his direct opponent delivers to Gunston in the goal square one on one with McKenzie. Gunston kicks a goal. I thought our problem was big forwards like Hawkins? Oh that's right...we didn't have ****ing ALIIR for this game.

9:44 - Boak gets a free kick. The player on the mark walks forward after the umpire says 'stand' - no 50 meter penalty.

9:34 - for some inexplicable reason, Bonner decides that kicking the ball in the direction that Amon is leading is a stupid idea and instead sends him back the other way, which results in a turnover.

9:09 - umpire pays deliberate when Marshall is 1 meter away from the boundary. Ridiculous call.

8:40 - Shit Sam Skinner literally goes to spoil a ball from in front of Mitch Lewis, who marks the ball and kicks the goal. Could have got his hands up to mark the ball but no, let's not even make it hard for the opposition forwards.

7:27 - Worpel marks in front of Byrne-Jones, and for some reason Motlop and Duursma decide that getting across to guard space is more important than actually picking up Ward who gets the ball after Worpel plays on and kicks a goal. Watching this it doesn't surprise me that Duursma was dropped the following week.

6:56 - Bruest delivers a pin point kick to Lewis with McKenzie lagging behind. Remember, McKenzie was only playing because we literally had no one else in this game since Aliir and Clurey were both injured and Pasini hadn't showed any run of form yet.

4:05 - Powell-Pepper scores a goal from a stoppage clearance.

2:48 - Boak has a running shot at goal but misses.

1:01 - Mitch Lewis kicks yet another goal - a precursor to what Lachie Gollant would do on Skinner the following week.

0:33 - Powell-Pepper kicks yet another goal from congestion.

Fourth Quarter

You know what? I can't be arsed watching the rest of this game. It had absolutely NOTHING to do with the gamestyle and everything to do with players once again failing to convert easy shots at goal and putting scoreboard pressure on their opponent, while making stupid decisions. I'm not even talking about the delivery inside 50 and the lack of movement - even if they had just played the same way but taking advantage of field position like a regular AFL player should we would have been much better off.

And yes, if Dixon, Gray, Aliir and Fantasia had played this game, we would have won. EASILY.

 

[longdonkey]

Oh really?

I went back and watched this game. Please tell me which of these incidents has anything to do with the game plan.

18:58 - Lycett intercepts on the wing, then handballs to Darcy Byrne-Jones who runs past him boundary side with 11 Hawthorn players ahead of him, 9 of them inside attacking 50. Of course it's going to be a turnover. Ends up being a 50m penalty and a certain goal to Hawthorn after a crocked McKenzie lags behind his player getting back inside 50 and encroaches the protected area.

13:46 - Finlayson hits the post from a set shot. The resultant kick in turns into a goal to Wingard after Bruest squirts out a kick through traffic into space on the outside.

8:46 - Drew has a clear shot on goal from field play - misses.

6:03 - Georgiades has a set shot - misses.

4:47 - Boak has Sinn to his right in clear space going inside 50 but instead blasts away to Georgiades on a three on one. If Dixon was there, completely different story.

1:46 - for all the talk of Bonner being a wing, I've never seen it. Letting a ball out the front of a contested situation to an unguarded player is not good.

Quarter ends 3-20. Should have been 18-20 at the very least.

2nd quarter

19:16 - Amon has a shot on goal - misses. Rozee gets tackled below his waist, doesn't gain possession of the ball at any time - no free kick.

19:04 - Sam Skinner allows Mitch Lewis to mark uncontested because he's ******* around doing I have no idea what, something Aliir would have never allowed, the subsequent switch of play leads to...

18:38 - Jack Gunston kicks a goal out of his ass after Lachie Jones fails to kill a ball properly in defense.

18:04 - Amon has another shot on goal - again he misses.

17:11 - Lycett finally kicks a goal.

15:01 - Gunston again turns Jones inside out - I'm sorry, he might have been a defender in his younger days, but he's not agile enough to play the role in the AFL. Results in a goal to Hawthorn.

14:10 - Houston kicks a goal from around 50 in a quick reply.

12:51 - Rozee converts after getting a free kick for being slung to the ground without the ball.

12:05 - Jones handballs into the corridor inside opposition 50 to space, and is lucky that the Hawthorn player who gathered the ball missed the goal. Like I said, he's not a defender at AFL level.

11:11 - Sinn gets the ball on the boundary and has a chance to deliver inside 50 but kicks the ball out of bounds instead.

10:55 - Skinner *s up yet again by letting a ball bounce, which results in another Hawthorn inside 50. Luckily it didn't result in a goal.

9:00 - Sinn marks at 50m. Normally he would have the distance, but we now know he had groin issues this year. Doesn't even register a score.

7:33 - Boak has a set shot in the pocket - hits the wrong side of the football and fails to score.

6:53 - Jones kicks the ball out on the full coming out of defence in space.

5:54 - Wingard gets a free kick from a sloppy as * Boak tackle and converts.

5:26 - Hawks score through Nash who roves a ball on the boundary because Duursma didn't push back hard enough and allowed Nash to get in front of him goal side.

5:16 - from a centre clearance, Hawthorn gets out the front again and luckily only scores a point. Montgomery was moved on from the midfield coaching role for a reason - you can be aggressive as you like, but you have to setup so that you win the ball first.

4:47 - Georgiades inexplicably does this s**t little dinky kick which turns the ball over. Luckily it doesn't result in a goal.

2:35 - Georgiades has a set shot from 45 - misses.

1:15 - Bonner kicks inside 50 to a 3 on 2. Of course the 3 on 2 wins out, because the 2 doesn't include Dixon. The resultant counter runs the full length of the field...

0:43 - Because Jones has been well s**t on Gunston, McKenzie goes to him - and Gunston skins him after a bad bounce and kicks another goal.

Score ends at 24-52. Should have been 49-52. I'm not even going to include the fact that Aliir and Dixon weren't playing, just Port missing easy shots at goal that have nothing to do with the game plan.

Third Quarter

19:47 - Finlayson drops an easy mark at 50m, which results in a turnover and...

18:54 - Another goal to Hawthorn through Mitch Lewis, who is now being defended by Ryan Burton because guess what, Sam Skinner is ******* s**t. We're now getting into the territory where players start ignoring tactics and start just chasing jumpers because they are trying too hard.

16:17 - Rozee takes a mark at around 40m - kicks a point from a set shot.

15:43 - Hawthorn bites off a switch inside defensive 50 that Butters and Powell-Pepper reach and Powell-Pepper scores a goal.

15:30 - Powell-Pepper wins a centre clearance only to drive the ball in too deep and turn it over.

13:22 - After Marshall marks in the pocket but fails to register a score, Burton marks the subsequent Hawthorn kick and from a set shot kicks...a point.

11:44 - Motlop scores a goal from congestion.

10:20 - Sinn gets caught ball watching at a stoppage, and his direct opponent delivers to Gunston in the goal square one on one with McKenzie. Gunston kicks a goal. I thought our problem was big forwards like Hawkins? Oh that's right...we didn't have ******* ALIIR for this game.

9:44 - Boak gets a free kick. The player on the mark walks forward after the umpire says 'stand' - no 50 meter penalty.

9:34 - for some inexplicable reason, Bonner decides that kicking the ball in the direction that Amon is leading is a stupid idea and instead sends him back the other way, which results in a turnover.

9:09 - umpire pays deliberate when Marshall is 1 meter away from the boundary. Ridiculous call.

8:40 - s**t Sam Skinner literally goes to spoil a ball from in front of Mitch Lewis, who marks the ball and kicks the goal. Could have got his hands up to mark the ball but no, let's not even make it hard for the opposition forwards.

7:27 - Worpel marks in front of Byrne-Jones, and for some reason Motlop and Duursma decide that getting across to guard space is more important than actually picking up Ward who gets the ball after Worpel plays on and kicks a goal. Watching this it doesn't surprise me that Duursma was dropped the following week.

6:56 - Bruest delivers a pin point kick to Lewis with McKenzie lagging behind. Remember, McKenzie was only playing because we literally had no one else in this game since Aliir and Clurey were both injured and Pasini hadn't showed any run of form yet.

4:05 - Powell-Pepper scores a goal from a stoppage clearance.

2:48 - Boak has a running shot at goal but misses.

1:01 - Mitch Lewis kicks yet another goal - a precursor to what Lachie Gollant would do on Skinner the following week.

0:33 - Powell-Pepper kicks yet another goal from congestion.

Fourth Quarter

You know what? I can't be arsed watching the rest of this game. It had absolutely NOTHING to do with the gamestyle and everything to do with players once again failing to convert easy shots at goal and putting scoreboard pressure on their opponent, while making stupid decisions. I'm not even talking about the delivery inside 50 and the lack of movement - even if they had just played the same way but taking advantage of field position like a regular AFL player should we would have been much better off.

And yes, if Dixon, Gray, Aliir and Fantasia had played this game, we would have won. EASILY.

Your ramble is all about effect I'm interested in cause, we speak 2 different languages.

Between the Prelim Final v Western Bulldogs and Round 1-2 Bris & Haw we conceded 202 points in 3 games from turnover. That is a little less than 11 goals per game.

All of those players played the Prelim final and we still managed to concede 87 points on turnover - Why? because its nothing to do with personnel.

My only caveat to that is having those 4 players in the team does make us better able to execute Hinkleyball.

We have a game plan that can be exploited by good teams. Some teams are not able to do it. But we will NEVER win a premiership with this coach and game plan.

 

[TeeKray]

I gave Janus a like just for going to the effort of actually watching three quarters of that game just to make a point on BigFooty.

 

[longdonkey]

I gave Janus a like just for going to the effort of actually watching three quarters of that game just to make a point on BigFooty.

I didn't make it past half time - but I had a sneaky look to see if we might make a comeback in hope more than expectation.

 

[Janus]

Your ramble is all about effect I'm interested in cause, we speak 2 different languages.

Between the Prelim Final v Western Bulldogs and Round 1-2 Bris & Haw we conceded 202 points in 3 games from turnover. That is a little less than 11 goals per game.

All of those players played the Prelim final and we still managed to concede 87 points on turnover - Why? because its nothing to do with personnel.

My only caveat to that is having those 4 players in the team does make us better able to execute Hinkleyball.

We have a game plan that can be exploited by good teams. Some teams are not able to do it. But we will NEVER win a premiership with this coach and game plan.

The majority of scoring in AFL is based on turnover. That's why limiting turnovers goes 70% of the way to a victory.

You bring up the Bulldogs game as though the Hawthorn game is a continuation of the same thing - it's not. Against the Bulldogs:

We lost the kick count by 25 (-)
We lost inside 50s by 12 (-)
We had 14 more turnovers (-)
We had 23 more uncontested possessions (+)
We had 30 less contested possessions (-)
We had 7 more marks (+)
We had 6 less clearances (-)
We had 1 more rebound 50 (-)

The Bulldogs smashed us in the midfield and went forward of center. They were just a better team, and should have been top four instead of Brisbane (who I still don't rate). Hawthorn stacked an extra players behind the ball at all times and spread the ball wide to guys that could run because they knew that Marshall, Finlayson and Georgiades would still be finding their feet as a forward combination and they could screen off all of them (which you can't do with Dixon). If Aliir and Clurey are playing instead of a crocked McKenzie and Skinner, Mitch Lewis doesn't kick 4 goals.

I give credit to Mitchell for coming up with a gameplan that exploited our situation, but make no mistake...it was a perfect storm of bullshit that conspired against us that night.

 

[longdonkey]

The majority of scoring in AFL is based on turnover. That's why limiting turnovers goes 70% of the way to a victory.

You bring up the Bulldogs game as though the Hawthorn game is a continuation of the same thing - it's not. Against the Bulldogs:

We lost the kick count by 25 (-)
We lost inside 50s by 12 (-)
We had 14 more turnovers (-)
We had 23 more uncontested possessions (+)
We had 30 less contested possessions (-)
We had 7 more marks (+)
We had 6 less clearances (-)
We had 1 more rebound 50 (-)

The Bulldogs smashed us in the midfield and went forward of center. They were just a better team, and should have been top four instead of Brisbane (who I still don't rate). Hawthorn stacked an extra players behind the ball at all times and spread the ball wide to guys that could run because they knew that Marshall, Finlayson and Georgiades would still be finding their feet as a forward combination and they could screen off all of them (which you can't do with Dixon). If Aliir and Clurey are playing instead of a crocked McKenzie and Skinner, Mitch Lewis doesn't kick 4 goals.

I give credit to Mitchell for coming up with a gameplan that exploited our situation, but make no mistake...it was a perfect storm of bullshit that conspired against us that night.

These statistics in isolation don't mean much but together show the different ways we are vulnerable with Hinkleyball.

We get more of the ball play chippy chip sideways denying the opposition the ball eventually go inside 50 where we turnover with the ball going past our defence that has push up too far, they get over the back and score on turnover. Hinkleyball being destroyed ala the way it happens most often .

Western Bulldogs destroyed us out of the middle which is the other way it can be done.

Here are 5 games where we lost because Hinkleyball was destroyed. All the games have this in common defenders are able to take marks because they are always plus one in defence so not only tall defenders take marks but small defenders too

Round 1 v Brisbane : Adams 11 marks, Andrews 5 marks, Gardiner 4 marks, Rich 5 marks, Starcevich 4 marks
Round 2 v Hawthorn : Sicily 7 marks ,Scrimshaw 6 marks, Grainger-Barras 3 marks, Frost 3 marks, Hardwick 3 marks
Round 4 v Melbourne: May 9, Gawn 12, Lever 2, Rivers 2 Tomlinson 3, Brayshaw 6
Round 10 v Geelong : De Konning 5, Duncan 7, Z Guthrie 3, O'Connor 6, Stewart 8
Round 13 v Richmond: Broad 5, Grimes 4, Ralphsmith 4, Rioli 5, Short 5, Tarrant 7, Vlastuin 9

compare this to a game we win well

Round 9 v North Melbourne Corr 2, McDonald 2, Walker 4, Young 4, Ziebell 3
Round 14 v Sydney Blakey 3, Cunningham 2, P McCartin 3, T Mc Cartin 2, Lloyd 2

This isn't the only thing but its a symptom because there are games where we win where the opposition defence take lots of marks but aren't good enough to rebound and score. West Coast and Essendon games are good examples.

The stat that shows we win the ball at contest needs to be shown with this stat where we lose the ball to show a better understanding of what happens and why Hinkleyball fails.