So you referred to last seasons performance and then criticised another doing the same. Or are you criticising the different conclusion?
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So you referred to last seasons performance and then criticised another doing the same. Or are you criticising the different conclusion?
One of the reasons we are often high on the injury tables is that we recruit injured players:
- in your list Bennell and Hogan were traded in despite known injury issues. Then there are other trades like Gumbleton
- Guys like Valente, Apeness, Balic, Switkowski and Langdon were all drafted despite either being injured or having extensive injury histories prior to the draft. Sometimes this approach works (Langdon). Mostly it doesn't. Perhaps it will with Switkowski
In other words, its not just about the fitness/medical team; its also about what those guys are given to work with.
Surely we would already have a contract offer in front of Meek? Especially as he is showing us everything we would want to see during the pre-season. Lose Meek and Lobb gets to write his own contract.
He's already signed until 2023
wakojako
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Just needs to spend time with the forward coaches now
Sturty2Hurty
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Did Sturt train yesterday?
Piggy Smalls
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Just back to the article briefly...
What does forecasting AFL teams’ progression actually have to do with determining the length of a hypotenuse using the length of the other two sides on a right angle triangle?
What does forecasting AFL teams’ progression actually have to do with determining the length of a hypotenuse using the length of the other two sides on a right angle triangle?
DRAGONS FFC - Moderator
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Absolutely nothing.
Pretty sure they’re just throwing around mathematical terms to make the article seem more impressive to the everypony than it actually is
SupermanCapes
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I think the article is a bad one, in part, because it focuses entirely on what happened last season as the way of predicting what will happen this season while blatantly ignoring a whole host of other factors that impact each footy club.
PurpleReign
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To be fair, I think that was the point of the article.
For a sixth consecutive year, it’s time to look back in order to look forward.
This is our annual Pythagorean wins prediction piece, which examines the teams who over- and underperformed in the previous season to predict who’ll bounce back or fall flat in the coming year.
I’m sure it is a whimsical piece. I suspect Max Laughton was just having a bit of a Max Laugh-ton.
I can't think of anybody we've drafted in recent memory that have me so excited to tune into Peel games, but hoo-boy am I excited to see what Amiss can do this year.
Not really even expecting any games in purple, although 2-4 games would be a pleasant surprise.
Not really even expecting any games in purple, although 2-4 games would be a pleasant surprise.
SupermanCapes
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Haha yeh agree, and that's why I don't like it. I think the absolute language it uses just rubs me up the wrong way, but maybe it's just because it attempts to rain on our pre-season parade.
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They were desperate to downplay their error last year, the point of the article was to show how right their system is, we were the biggest outlier as they only predicted we’d win 7.9 games and we actually won 10. That’s why we were top of the list. Instead of admitting they got it wrong, they doubled down on belittling our performance by using our % to say we were really only an 8 win team (as they predicted) fact is they got it wrong, and had Fyfe, Tabs, Lobb, Pearce and Hamling played most of the season they would have been even more inaccurate.
I swear we outperform these statistic based predictions every year. I remember being pissed off every year at Champion Data for ranking our list much worse than I thought we should be - every year we finished higher (closer to my expectations) than Champion Data predicted. After a while I decided not to care.
Overall I think these stats actually do alright but like anything it isn’t perfect. There’s outliers and for whatever reason Freo always seems to be it.
PurpleReign
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Fact says: fourth-last in the AFL for points scored
Freo fan says: not fair, that stat is skewed due to our inaccuracy in front of goal
Fact says:
, I give up
Freo fan says: not fair, that stat is skewed due to our inaccuracy in front of goal
Fact says:
, I give up
Pethagoras was a punishing defender for the Metapontum Village Gargoyles soccer team in 434 BC. On the side he was a data analyst and reporter for the local newspaper where he infamously developed this highly sophisticated algorithm to predict how well the local soccer teams were going to do in a season. This was lost after his death until some guy who worked for the Oakland A’s found it written on the back in an envelope in a book he bought while traveling in Rome.
Clearly, you need to read up on you history.
It’s just off season content filler. Lol. Let’s bookmark this and come back to it at the end of the season to see how well it worked. My own Dadooian calculations say: "just as good as flipping a coin".
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Bring back Drum
Mundy4Hundy
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We were crap in front of goals no doubt, but we also had a lot of poor & shallow inside 50 entries meaning below average connection with forwards.
Finally the penny dropped (or contracts were up) & Graham has been bought in to try to improve that area. Not expecting miracles early on, but continued improvement through the year will be nice.
Finally the penny dropped (or contracts were up) & Graham has been bought in to try to improve that area. Not expecting miracles early on, but continued improvement through the year will be nice.
I'll feel more confident when it is clear that our wings are settled and that the loss of Cerra is covered. At the moment it seems Tucker is the first option, but we need to see how it works in practice. Especially given that our actual
forwards haven't been prominent in the pre-season drills.
Treacy has to get back asap. Otherwise he’s not playing round 1. Lobb is interesting. Up and down pre season.
Thankfully Tabs is back to full fitness.
Be pumped to see Cox, Tabs, Lobb and Sturt in, if we’re lucky. Cox can have a great year, whether it’s down back or up forward.
By all reports, Will Brodie v Tucker for that open spot by Cerra. You’d imagine Tucker gets first preference due to being at the club longest.
We also have forwards who aren't reliable shots on goal and haven't been over their whole careers. Some of them may improve slightly due to the additional coaching resources allocated to that area which'll help as well.
Hopefully we can get Darcy more forward too?
20 goals a season from the big unit could be special.
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