Player Watch 2023 AFL Draft Pool Discussion Thread

[Strapping Young Lad]

Same rule applies to this thread as other years, keep it on topic about the kids.
Don’t get bogged down on what other teams might do or where they will finish.

Trade speculation belongs here.
That's also where you can discuss your mock drafts or pick trades.

Any McCabe, Dear or Maginness talk belongs here.

 

[FB19]

Every club is desperate to trade up in this draft. You don’t trade down from your highest pick in 18 years.

That is your view and seemingly the clubs view and to be clear if Duursma is there at 4(5) my view too. But if he isn’t I am open to moving down as I think there are potentially elite players in positions of need that I would prefer over Curtin or Watson alone.

 

[FB19]

Reading a little of north posters in recent weeks on here, there seems to be an air of believing they now have all the right people in place to be successful. There’s a part of me that wishes them well, the other voice is desperate to watch draft night with a beer and hear
Pick 2 “Colby McKercher”
Pick 3 “Ryley Sanders”

 

[The Chad and I]

1. Reid
2. Walter
3. Duursma
4. Curtin
5. McKercher
6. Watson

3-6 could go in any order.
After that it drops away.

Watson is the only one that could slide IMO.
For those who laugh, I think teams could prioritise other needs with players like Caddy, O'Sullivan, Windsor, Read, and Sanders.
I agree that Watson has performed better than all of them, but it's about projecting a player at full potential vs risk and weighing up list requirements.

Sorry to the short Kings who don't want to hear that, but height matters.

Does Melbourne's pick 6 become pick 7 bc of Walter?
If so, that could mean we take Caddy and Windsor - two players I like a lot - should we do that trade with them.
Caddy as the Gunston replacement.
Windsor as the HFF/Wing we're lacking atm.
Not a bad consolation prize if we miss out of Reid and Duursma.

 

[FB19]

1. Reid
2. Walter
3. Duursma
4. Curtin
5. McKercher
6. Watson

3-6 could go in any order.
After that it drops away.

Watson is the only one that could slide IMO.
For those who laugh, I think teams could prioritise other needs with players like Caddy, O'Sullivan, Windsor, Read, and Sanders.
I agree that Watson has performed better than all of them, but it's about projecting a player at full potential vs risk and weighing up list requirements.

Sorry to the short Kings who don't want to hear that, but height matters.

Does Melbourne's pick 6 become pick 7 bc of Walter?
If so, that could mean we take Caddy and Windsor - two players I like a lot - should we do that trade with them.
Caddy as the Gunston replacement.
Windsor as the HFF/Wing we're lacking atm.
Not a bad consolation prize if we miss out of Reid and Duursma.

It’s interesting Reid and Walter go 1,2 no chance anything else happens.
Duursma s range would be 3-5 doesn’t get past us.
McKercher 3-6 couldn’t see him getting past the dogs.
Curtin 4-10 (including Ethan Read bid). There’s a draft order I can see where he gets to the Cats - 4 of top 5, 2 bids, sanders caddy and osullivan before mean he’s the 8th live pick.
Watson 5-8 if we dont take him and dogs take sanders one of dees or gws take him as he will have instant impact.
So for me Curtin is the biggest potential slider and why I was keen to trade back with the dees. if he and Watson are on the board and they want the wizard, we guarantee Curtin plus another top pick. If Curtin got to the cats I would trade our f1 to get him if we’ve added Duursma.

 

[kirbatron]

The wiz with his evasiveness & zippy nature will be an absolute nightmare to tackle. he'll kick 20 just from frees

 

[lethalselbow]

AFL Draft Expert (youtube) thoughts on picks 4 & 8 for West Coast's pick 1. Just for some interesting thoughts.

"4+8 would be a no from me if I'm West Coast. It's a +3585 gain (before bidding), after bidding it would be down to close to equal depending on how early all the bids come. When you've got one of the potentially I'm speculating best pick 1s ever, roughly fair value on paper isn't enough. I considered pick 4 + Hawthorn's 2024 1st for pick 1. Pick 4 after bidding becomes at least pick 5 = 1878. Then it's guesswork where Hawthorn finish in 2024. I expect lower part of the ladder rather than higher as I'm not optimistic around Hawthorn's 2024 season. North Melbourne's pick 3+2024 1st would be more tempting and I'd agree to that conditional on not having to give up anything (as accepting that 2024 1st is less certain than pick 2 this year as there is still the plausible reality North Melbourne move up a few spots if things go right). The Hawthorn pick for me slightly on value (and speculation around the 2024 pick) falls short. If Hawthorn turned their 2024 1st into Melbourne's 6+11 and pick 4 was also part of that same offer, that's when I'd change my tune as the sheer number of early picks is too hard from a value perspective not to take. Hard to see Melbourne doing that though as they like picks now rather than future picks, even if they were happy with the valuation."

 

[lethalselbow]

The wiz with his evasiveness & zippy nature will be an absolute nightmare to tackle. he'll kick 20 just from frees

With him and Ginnivan, they probably won't be awarded a head high tackle all season! lol

 

[Since 2001]

If duursma isnt at our pick, wouls like to see us get creative and get 2 first round picks in this years draft.

Then add in mccabe and we technically get 3 first round picks in one year and should allow us to get creative to trade for some big names

 

[excitingnews]

The wiz with his evasiveness & zippy nature will be an absolute nightmare to tackle. he'll kick 20 just from frees

Between ginivan and the wiz we will make finals next year based on the sheer volume of high frees alone

 

[garyayresmullet]

Page 200 - how appropriate. This will be my last post for a while since I'm going on some leave. I'll leave you with the following information.
1. Our offer to Eagles is still there and hasn't officially been rejected (though not many doubt it will be).
2. We believe (good signs so far) we'll be able to do a pick swap on the night with another team which if it is accepted will mean we'll be going for one of Caddy, O'Sullivan, Leake or Wilson.

That's all. To those that have believed me I had done most of the trades paperwork and it's now up to other staff to do the drafts paperwork whilst I take a (hard earned) sabbatical. To those that haven't believed me, my mum has kicked me out of her basement made me put some clothes on and confiscated my computer

It's been fun. See you in a few weeks.

Signing off with a flourish…..thanks for all of your posts, theyve made this thread fun to read

 

[chopflop]

Similar to Weddle last year, I wouldn't pigeon-hole o'sullivan as a KPD. He is very very versatile. Elite tools. I see him potentially as a roaming CHF type or a swingman like himmelberg.

 

[Brishawk]

AFL Draft Expert (youtube) thoughts on picks 4 & 8 for West Coast's pick 1. Just for some interesting thoughts.

"4+8 would be a no from me if I'm West Coast. It's a +3585 gain (before bidding), after bidding it would be down to close to equal depending on how early all the bids come. When you've got one of the potentially I'm speculating best pick 1s ever, roughly fair value on paper isn't enough. I considered pick 4 + Hawthorn's 2024 1st for pick 1. Pick 4 after bidding becomes at least pick 5 = 1878. Then it's guesswork where Hawthorn finish in 2024. I expect lower part of the ladder rather than higher as I'm not optimistic around Hawthorn's 2024 season. North Melbourne's pick 3+2024 1st would be more tempting and I'd agree to that conditional on not having to give up anything (as accepting that 2024 1st is less certain than pick 2 this year as there is still the plausible reality North Melbourne move up a few spots if things go right). The Hawthorn pick for me slightly on value (and speculation around the 2024 pick) falls short. If Hawthorn turned their 2024 1st into Melbourne's 6+11 and pick 4 was also part of that same offer, that's when I'd change my tune as the sheer number of early picks is too hard from a value perspective not to take. Hard to see Melbourne doing that though as they like picks now rather than future picks, even if they were happy with the valuation."

The stupid thing about that is we are willing to give up 4 and F1 for reid (wr cant get 8 without giving up F1) but it seems wc want picks this year. The rest of it is craziness. No one is giving up 3 firsts lol

 

[Dewnior]

I think we have to take dear as last pick in national draft now that we have nominated him

I don't think so. If he doesn't get bid on in the ND then we can take him with our last rookie pick.

 

[GinniAndTonic]

I don't think so. If he doesn't get bid on in the ND then we can take him with our last rookie pick.

He’s correct Twomey tweeted out the other day if he isn’t bid on he will be taken with our last pick in the ND.

 

[LunchboxLegend]

Curtin, Watson, Kercher, Duursma……we win

“Can I get two, maybe even three of these…” AK, RHCP.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

The wiz with his evasiveness & zippy nature will be an absolute nightmare to tackle. he'll kick 20 just from frees

How many does Pickett kick from frees? Better athlete and a similar size.

 

[kenneje]

If Curtin is there at pick 4, I wonder if we'd entertain trading it for WCE future first.

 

[Platten44]

That is your view and seemingly the clubs view and to be clear if Duursma is there at 4(5) my view too. But if he isn’t I am open to moving down as I think there are potentially elite players in positions of need that I would prefer over Curtin or Watson alone.

It’s the view of all 18 clubs this year.

 

[TylerDurden]

If Curtin is there at pick 4, I wonder if we'd entertain trading it for WCE future first.

No chance. We need players now.

 

[Platten44]

If Curtin is there at pick 4, I wonder if we'd entertain trading it for WCE future first.

Why? Reid and Curtin and a good run with injury could easily see West Coast win the majority of their home games and jump up the ladder.

 

[anders]

Sicily will be 29 by the start of the season too. DGB is now trialling as a forward. Why people are against stocking up on talented tall defenders after watching our defensive performances the past half a decade really bewilders me.

Not against stocking up on talented tall defenders but I can understand peoples concerns with our forward half.
Talented talls would help win the contest in the air, this is an area that I believe we have regressed, but we also need more avenues to goal

 

[Brant]

If Curtin is there at pick 4, I wonder if we'd entertain trading it for WCE future first.

Greedy, maybe - but I want more than their F1 for 4.

 

[Platten44]

The general view amongst recruiters is that Reid, Walter, McKercher, Duursma, Watson and Curtin would be the top 6 if they were transported into last years draft based on their junior careers. Sanders splits recruiters and the likes of Caddy, O’Sullivan, Wilson, Leake would sit after Weddle at pick 18 and most likely in the early 20’s.

 

[H00t]

The general view amongst recruiters is that Reid, Walter, McKercher, Duursma, Watson and Curtin would be the top 6 if they were transported into last years draft based on their junior careers. Sanders splits recruiters and the likes of Caddy, O’Sullivan, Wilson, Leake would sit after Weddle at pick 18 and most likely in the early 20’s.

Would that group really all be ahead of Ashcroft, Sheezel and Wardlaw?

Reid, Water and McKercher I could see. The others no.

 

[VandoHawk]

The general view amongst recruiters is that Reid, Walter, McKercher, Duursma, Watson and Curtin would be the top 6 if they were transported into last years draft based on their junior careers. Sanders splits recruiters and the likes of Caddy, O’Sullivan, Wilson, Leake would sit after Weddle at pick 18 and most likely in the early 20’s.

Really? Seems a controversial take rather than a general view.

Reid vs Ashcroft
Walter vs Cadman
McKercher vs Wardlaw
Duursma vs Sheezel
Curtin vs Tsatas (not directly comparable)
Watson vs Humphrey (not directly comparable)
Sanders vs Mackenzie

I would think the top end of these two drafts are extremely comparable in talent and that any recruiter that claims you can just plop the top 6 from this year into last would be very bold. However, I definitely agree that the next tier of players in this draft are weaker than last year.