Opinion 2023 AFL Draft Prospects

[Doggies7]

Cal Twomey on Gettable has said regarding a Croft bid "Potentially a bit later than originally thought, wouldn't surprise me if it pushed back a little further than that first 10-15 like originally thought, and might come a bit later in the draft".

 

[Golden_6]

Cal Twomey on Gettable has said regarding a Croft bid "Potentially a bit later than originally thought, wouldn't surprise me if it pushed back a little further than that first 10-15 like originally thought, and might come a bit later in the draft".

I think that makes complete sense. He has some terrific attributes but I never felt like he was a top 10-15 talent and more in the 15-25 range. Maybe clubs were planting a bit of doubt on Power and forcing him to make the decision to move up the draft?

If we can somehow walk out of the draft with Watson, Croft, Lual and another top 45ish prospect, I'll be very pleased.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Cal Twomey on Gettable has said regarding a Croft bid "Potentially a bit later than originally thought, wouldn't surprise me if it pushed back a little further than that first 10-15 like originally thought, and might come a bit later in the draft".

Aligns with what I see in him. I'll be much happier taking him if we salvage some of those third rounders after a bid. Pick 5 + Croft + a couple mid-late picks is a much better outcome IMO than the former two + some picks in the 60s.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I think that makes complete sense. He has some terrific attributes but I never felt like he was a top 10-15 talent and more in the 15-25 range. Maybe clubs were planting a bit of doubt on Power and forcing him to make the decision to move up the draft?

If we can somehow walk out of the draft with Watson, Croft, Lual and another top 45ish prospect, I'll be very pleased.

Frankly, I think media overstate the quality of their inside word in the lead up to the draft. This often happens with KPPs who play a few strong games - their value gets WAY overestimated because the main criteria for journalists' rankings (goals and marks) differs from that of scouts (improvement, dominance by position, intangibles).

Only on limited footage, but he's always looked much more like a second round KPP than a first round one to me. I'll be much happier if that's where he goes as opposed to 10-15.

 

[BLACAE]

If we take Curtin, I hope they play him as a mid more than a defender. I figure if he starts in the Mid, he can always move back and support if needed. If we start him in Def, I feel we lose a bit of that ability to break a pack and put immediate pressure on the oppo defence. That being said, I think it's a moot point as I don't see him getting past Norf or WCE.

I feel, like others do, that we will have Watson or Sanders available to us.

On SM-G990E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Pugz89]

Aligns with what I see in him. I'll be much happier taking him if we salvage some of those third rounders after a bid. Pick 5 + Croft + a couple mid-late picks is a much better outcome IMO than the former two + some picks in the 60s.

Probably also justifies his comment a few days ago that we will likely use four picks if the third and fourth picks are a bit earlier, due to a later than initially thought bid on Croft.

 

[doggies ftw]

Will be years of crap on here comparing our original picks vs Pick 5 if he slides past them both… I’m pretty attached to the players at pick 5 now so I’m still happy tbh, but could also make us look a bit silly if we could have had for example Wilson/Windsor, Collard, F1 & Croft, and they end up better than pick 5 + Croft

 

[dergert]

Who is this top 10 bolter Twomey was talking about?

 

[Mojorisin]

Who is this top 10 bolter Twomey was talking about?

Leake.

 

[stefoid]

Will be years of crap on here comparing our original picks vs Pick 5 if he slides past them both… I’m pretty attached to the players at pick 5 now so I’m still happy tbh, but could also make us look a bit silly if we could have had for example Wilson/Windsor, Collard, F1 & Croft, and they end up better than pick 5 + Croft

happy with that - pretty much the reason the board exists

 

[Doggies7]

So if a Croft bid comes later, we could potentially then package a few of our picks in the 40s - 50s to move up into the 30s and grab Lual if we really want him, or a faller we have targeted. Will give us a few more options hopefully.

 

[Golden_6]

Leake.

It's Caleb Windsor who Twomey was referring to.

He seems pretty set that we'll be taking Watson or Sanders.

 

[Mojorisin]

It's Caleb Windsor who Twomey was referring to.

He seems pretty set that we'll be taking Watson or Sanders.

I obviously wasn't listening properly.

 

[Golden_6]

So if a Croft bid comes later, we could potentially then package a few of our picks in the 40s - 50s to move up into the 30s and grab Lual if we really want him, or a faller we have targeted. Will give us a few more options hopefully.

I doubt it unfortunately. No clubs aren't going to want multiple late picks for something in the 30's. The only clubs that do that are the clubs that have higher end bid prospects that want to trade down.

 

[doggies ftw]

Aligns with what I see in him. I'll be much happier taking him if we salvage some of those third rounders after a bid. Pick 5 + Croft + a couple mid-late picks is a much better outcome IMO than the former two + some picks in the 60s.

Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think it really even helps our hand too much does it? It just means we’ll use less of our late picks so we’ll probably be left with say 3x picks 40-50 instead of 2 (and we won’t use the 3rd anyway)

 

[flipper83]

Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think it really even helps our hand too much does it? It just means we’ll use less of our late picks so we’ll probably be left with say 3x picks 40-50 instead of 2 (and we won’t use the 3rd anyway)

As it stands gold coast probably don't have enough points to match the 3 early bids so maybe at some point we can trade some of our points for one of their future picks.

 

[doggies ftw]

So if a Croft bid comes later, we could potentially then package a few of our picks in the 40s - 50s to move up into the 30s and grab Lual if we really want him, or a faller we have targeted. Will give us a few more options hopefully.

Yeah good point we could package up, but the problem with that is the only teams those picks will interest are bid matching teams (ie GC/Hawks) and their work will be done by the time we can make that call so not sure anyone else would be trading down to picks in the 50s

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think it really even helps our hand too much does it? It just means we’ll use less of our late picks so we’ll probably be left with say 3x picks 40-50 instead of 2 (and we won’t use the 3rd anyway)

If we were to expect a bid around 12, it would cost us 1014 points - pick 48 (302) + pick 50 (273) + pick 52 (246) + pick 53 (233) = 1054. So we would get pick 70 back, and be left with 56, 69, and 70.

If we now see a bid coming at, say, 18, it would cost 788 points. Our first three picks = 821, so we'd get pick 84 back, and be left with picks 53, 56, 69, 72 etc.

So - it would have two consequences:

1. If we wanted to take two picks, we would take 53 + 56 rather than 56 + 69.
2. We wouldn't need to open up as many list positions to be able to use enough points, too, meaning we don't have to go too deep in the draft.

It's not a massive difference, no, but something.

It also depends how much later Twomey's "bit later" is. If that falls back to say, pick 25, suddenly we match with only 48 & 50 and are then left with 52, 53, 56 - a very nice hand to move up with or shift back into the 2024 draft.

 

[Pugz89]

Yeah good point we could package up, but the problem with that is the only teams those picks will interest are bid matching teams (ie GC/Hawks) and their work will be done by the time we can make that call so not sure anyone else would be trading down to picks in the 50s

Not really. I'd expect McCabe to be bid after Croft and Suns will have one after Croft as well i'd imagine. From all accounts, clubs communicate with each other regarding back end NGA talent, so whenever Lual's name comes up, I doubt it'll be a surprise to Power. If it is 35+, then perhaps the club may offer us a chance to trade for their pick by throwing in pick 50? which will slide up a couple, so is probably only a 10-12 pick drop, and a future third or something next year. Will be interesting to see though. Given round 1 is likely to be 26 or 27 picks, the first night could and most likely will be longer than night two.

 

[bobs head soup]

Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think it really even helps our hand too much does it? It just means we’ll use less of our late picks so we’ll probably be left with say 3x picks 40-50 instead of 2 (and we won’t use the 3rd anyway)

Might come in handy matching a bid on Lual at 40+?

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Also worth noting those 50 odd picks will move in a decent amount once GC and us match with a collective of 10ish picks. More picks go out than go in when matching, so an extra pick 53 could easily become 45ish - suddenly more appealing.

 

[Mojorisin]

Not really. I'd expect McCabe to be bid after Croft and Suns will have one after Croft as well i'd imagine. From all accounts, clubs communicate with each other regarding back end NGA talent, so whenever Lual's name comes up, I doubt it'll be a surprise to Power. If it is 35+, then perhaps the club may offer us a chance to trade for their pick by throwing in pick 50? which will slide up a couple, so is probably only a 10-12 pick drop, and a future third or something next year. Will be interesting to see though. Given round 1 is likely to be 26 or 27 picks, the first night could and most likely will be longer than night two.

Hawks also have Dear who will get a bid Mid draft.

 

[TiAn_]

Also worth noting those 50 odd picks will move in a decent amount once GC and us match with a collective of 10ish picks. More picks go out than go in when matching, so an extra pick 53 could easily become 45ish - suddenly more appealing.

Our pick 56 should end up in the late 40s.

Hopefully Read or Rogers are also bid on before Croft, as that could move our first 3 third rounders up enough to save us from using 53 when matching.

Two picks in the mid to late 40s would give us some decent options.

 

[doggies ftw]

If we were to expect a bid around 12, it would cost us 1014 points - pick 48 (302) + pick 50 (273) + pick 52 (246) + pick 53 (233) = 1054. So we would get pick 70 back, and be left with 56, 69, and 70.

If we now see a bid coming at, say, 18, it would cost 788 points. Our first three picks = 821, so we'd get pick 84 back, and be left with picks 53, 56, 69, 72 etc.

So - it would have two consequences:

1. If we wanted to take two picks, we would take 53 + 56 rather than 56 + 69.
2. We wouldn't need to open up as many list positions to be able to use enough points, too, meaning we don't have to go too deep in the draft.

It's not a massive difference, no, but something.

It also depends how much later Twomey's "bit later" is. If that falls back to say, pick 25, suddenly we match with only 48 & 50 and are then left with 52, 53, 56 - a very nice hand to move up with or shift back into the 2024 draft.

I wrote this a few weeks back when I tried to do the maths after the picks had already come in from GCs:

We’re well placed for Croft, let’s assume our late picks come in 3 by the time Croft is bid on (3 GC academy players and 6 picks to be wiped, could be more if they split during the draft)

Looking at the teams who hold picks 12-16 I think that’s where a bid comes in for him.

Worst case a bid comes at 12 we only use 45, 47, 49, & 50 to match leaving us with pick 53 & gaining an extra pick 55. We don’t need to have a list spot for 69 & 72 they’re useless.

Best case a bid at 16 we match with 45, 47 & 49. Leaving us with picks 50 & 53 to use at the draft.

Now when our picks are taken off the board and also Hawks picks in the 40s the picks we’re left with in the 50s will likely come in further to 2x mid 40s picks.

So I think I was already expecting higher picks than your maths even with a bid at 12, but definitely could be wrong it’s a ****ing ‘mare to work this shit out

Either way obviously the later he goes the better and an extra pick in the 50s or even 40s could be handy to shift into next year. Can’t see us having much luck packaging up though.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

I wrote this a few weeks back when I tried to do the maths after the picks had already come in from GCs:


So I think I was already expecting higher picks than your maths even with a bid at 12, but definitely could be wrong it’s a ******* ‘mare to work this s**t out

Either way obviously the later he goes the better and an extra pick in the 50s or even 40s could be handy to shift into next year. Can’t see us having much luck packaging up though.

I think your maths was done before our picks slid back two places due to compo picks (i.e., you say 45, 47, 49, but now I think they are 48, 50, and 52).

But yep it's all dumb and impossible to calculate due to too many moving parts.

I guess the key point is later bids = good.