AFL 2023 Brownlow,Battle of the Bulls

[balmainforever]

ANY BETS POSTED AFTER THE COUNT IS FINISHED WITHOUT PRIOR POSTING WHETHER WINNING OR LOSING WILL GET AN AUTOMATIC RED CARD

 

[Sausage Legs]

I’ve hammered LDU ($2) in the trio vs Parker and Dangerfield. Have him 3 votes clear on 12.5 so I rekon double your money is great shopping!!

Agree, Greene group B insane to me also.
And really like telly for Eags

 

[Geeves Train]

Agree, Greene group B insane to me also.
And really like telly for Eags

Do you mean Greene in the trio market? Betfair haven’t really rated his season but a lot of other external counts have be seen have him heaps clear of Sinclair and Cripps. Reckon he might be flying under the radar. He usually polls well when he plays well

 

[Johanpetro]

Do you mean Greene in the trio market? Betfair haven’t really rated his season but a lot of other external counts have be seen have him heaps clear of Sinclair and Cripps. Reckon he might be flying under the radar. He usually polls well when he plays well

Think I’ve mentioned it already but I’ve got Greene polling extremely well. 24 from memory

 

[Geeves Train]

Think I’ve mentioned it already but I’ve got Greene polling extremely well. 24 from memory

What do you have Sinclair and Cripps? Feel Betfair just about only one having those 3 close and people who have done their own have Greene bolting in that trio group.

 

[Johanpetro]

What do you have Sinclair and Cripps? Feel Betfair just about only one having those 3 close and people who have done their own have Greene bolting in that trio group.

Greene 24
Sinclair 21
Cripps 19

 

[SuperDroppedBaggers]

Afl- Brownlow team votes- you'll see there's multiple markets now

Thanks mate, I played singles of Sheezel, Redman, Docherty and Pendles and a Multi of all 4 paying $455. Odds are crazy still compared to that guys model

 

[sohohoho]

What do you have Sinclair and Cripps? Feel Betfair just about only one having those 3 close and people who have done their own have Greene bolting in that trio group.

seems a new BF guy doing it this year, gone are the days of them being a good guide imo.
Greene from Sinclair here, $2.20 not that great though

 

[Geeves Train]

seems a new BF guy doing it this year, gone are the days of them being a good guide imo.
Greene from Sinclair here, $2.20 not that great though

Feel like he defaults a bit more to higher stats/AFL fantasy numbers which would explain why he may have missed Greene a few times. TBH I think it’s too much for one person, unless you are thinking brownlow, brownlow, brownlow for every minute and are watching every game you are going to miss stuff.

Value of things (such as Greene) as solely going to depend upon your own count and how much you trust it. I’ve got Greene 5 clear of Sinclair and 5.5 clear of Cripps. It’s a load for me but if those numbers were 2.5 and 3 then I’m only betting it small. That is where any edge comes from though, books so heavily influenced by BF count these days it seems like if you are sharper than BF then you have edge over books.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Far out it looks like TAB just got some of these team handicaps completely wrong - some great options available according to the model simulations. I'll attach the model output here for each team, which basically shows on average how many votes I expect they'll end up on after the handicap is applied, percentage of simulations where they win, and then the implied fair odds that they should be priced at - anything over this price is a bet. Unfortunately the prices have moved a bit but since you can multi I've still found a few bets.

If you're willing to do the work and sift through the screenshots you'll find some others - but Gawn/English are as close at sure things over $2 i've seen, and Redman / Pendlebury / Finlayson / Wood are still decent value despite moving in.

High quality post!
Quote Tab “oh yeah we forgot about the team handicaps this year” when I called them on Thursday

Least they’ve given some good value on it, agree with English and Gawn, they always give a little too much to certain ruckman each year coz predictors underpoll them a tad.

Laird seems overs given they think Dawson is rated to get 20-21 on their over/under.
Dunkley and Rowell definitely chances both have probably been underpolled on average predictors due to being lower touch higher impact players.
I think Saints is an absolute minefield but Wood is reasonably safe if it’s a lower Saints count at the top end.

 

[sohohoho]

Value of things (such as Greene) as solely going to depend upon your own count and how much you trust it. I’ve got Greene 5 clear of Sinclair and 5.5 clear of Cripps. It’s a load for me but if those numbers were 2.5 and 3 then I’m only betting it small. That is where any edge comes from though, books so heavily influenced by BF count these days it seems like if you are sharper than BF then you have edge over books.

Not sure books are influenced at all by BF.

 

[Geeves Train]

Not sure books are influenced at all by BF.

Should clarify I mean Betfair here and not Bigfooty. Tab handicaps last year heavily influenced by Betfair. Betfair made admin error and allocated votes to a Saints player who wasn’t Max King (their round by round summary detailed they allocated King the 2 but summary went elsewhere) and King came into $2 for Saints handicap off the back off that error.

 

[sohohoho]

Should clarify I mean Betfair here and not Bigfooty. Tab handicaps last year heavily influenced by Betfair. Betfair made admin error and allocated votes to a Saints player who wasn’t Max King (their round by round summary detailed they allocated King the 2 but summary went elsewhere) and King came into $2 for Saints handicap off the back off that error.

I know what you mean.
I would just be surprised if books aren't doing their own counts plus so many public ones now, just no need to refer to the Betfair and base prices/markets on that

 

[NYRB]

Went through an earlier week review of Round 7 Adelaide v Collingwood.


Coaches Votes went something along the lines of:

Adelaide v Collingwood​

9 Darcy Moore

30

Darcy Moore

Age

28

Ht

203cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.1

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

169.1

3star

D

13.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

0.7

1star

MG

182.0

3star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.2

2star

HB

2.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

87.4

2star

(COLL)
5 Jordan Dawson

12

Jordan Dawson

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

D

15.7

4star

K

10.9

4star

HB

4.9

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

D

11.8

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.6

3star

(ADEL)
4 Tom Doedee

12

Tom Doedee

Age

27

Ht

190cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.1

4star

K

8.5

3star

HB

8.6

5star

M

5.6

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

228.8

4star

D

15.3

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

5.8

3star

M

6.3

5star

T

1.3

2star

MG

228.8

3star

D

19.8

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

9.4

5star

M

6.6

5star

T

1.4

4star

(ADEL)
3 Chayce Jones

1

Chayce Jones

Age

24

Ht

182cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.6

3star

M

1.7

2star

T

1.9

4star

MG

178.6

3star

D

8.9

2star

K

4.9

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

1.6

3star

MG

143.3

3star

D

9.4

3star

K

4.4

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

175.0

3star

(ADEL)
3 Reilly O'Brien

43

Reilly O'brien

Age

28

Ht

202cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.4

4star

K

5.9

2star

HB

8.5

5star

CL

1.6

4star

HO

23.8

5star

D

14.4

3star

K

5.9

2star

HB

8.5

4star

CL

1.6

4star

HO

23.8

5star

D

12.6

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

7.8

5star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

24.8

5star

(ADEL)
2 Jordan De Goey

2

Jordan De Goey

Age

28

Ht

188cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.7

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

3.1

5star

CL

2.3

4star

D

15.8

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.2

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

1.7

3star

CL

2.3

4star

D

11.6

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

4.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

(COLL)
2 Josh Daicos

7

Josh Daicos

Age

25

Ht

178cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.3

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.3

3star

D

16.2

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.5

4star

CL

1.5

4star

D

13.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.2

4star

(COLL)
1 John Noble

9

John Noble

Age

27

Ht

180cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.3

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.1

4star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

186.1

3star

D

14.2

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

6.5

4star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.8

3star

MG

149.7

3star

D

18.8

5star

K

11.0

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

229.8

4star

(COLL)
1 Rory Laird

29

Rory Laird

Age

30

Ht

177cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.4

5star

K

12.9

5star

HB

12.5

5star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.3

4star

CL

1.0

3star

D

19.6

5star

K

10.9

4star

HB

8.7

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.4

3star

CL

1.1

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.4

3star

(ADEL)

Surprised to see J Daicos equal favourite here at Dabble. Genuine game where 3,2,1 could go in any order. Bet365 have an 'Other' option- players outside of: Moore, N Daicos, J Daicos, Dawson and Mitchell, which is paying $7.00 - which is well worth a look at.

 

[Geeves Train]

I know what you mean.
I would just be surprised if books aren't doing their own counts plus so many public ones now, just no need to refer to the Betfair and base prices/markets on that

I think Sportsbet do their own count. I very much doubt that Tab do because they didn’t realise anything original until yesterday and I feel by then they can formulate a count based on Betfair, odds on things like player over/under votes and then they just adjust incorrect prices as soon as people start launching bombs.

 

[getaroundit]

That Brownlow King guy still around?

 

[NYRB]

TAB allow parlaying up to 5 Team Handicap votes




Highlighted in yellow are the ones in yellow I like and odds.





Done a treble, four-fold and five-fold for : Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, GWS. Five fold pays for those 5 pays 3253.25


Done a treble, four-fold, and five-fold for: Gold Coast , Melbourne, Richmond, St.Kilda, West Coast. Five fold for those 5 pays 6142.50

 

[Suncraze]

Team Votes Multi-
Dawson, Merett Serong Anderson Greene LDU Butters Sinc Gulden Libba (without Bont) $5.38

Can anyone see this losing?

 

[Gift]

Can anyone see this losing?

Amon won Port votes last year so anything is possible with the umps voting

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Team Votes Multi-
Dawson, Merett Serong Anderson Greene LDU Butters Sinc Gulden Libba (without Bont) $5.38

Can anyone see this losing?

I can see a world where Marshall rolls Sinc and English rolls Libba

 

[AusMC]

I can see a world where Marshall rolls Sinc and English rolls Libba

Crouch and Treloar for me, but same principle.

 

[Suncraze]

I can see a world where Marshall rolls Sinc and English rolls Libba

Personally can't see it happening, Rucks generally don't poll well

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Personally can't see it happening, Rucks generally don't poll well

I reckon both Marshall and English had pretty dominant seasons so theyre a chance to poll in quite a few games. Not only that but there's a few swing games where Sinc/Marshall are fighting for the 3/2 which will also play a big factor.

Here are my team votes for St Kilda and WB:

STK
Jack Sinclair 16
Rowan Marshall 15
Brad Crouch 9.5
Jack Steele 8
Mitch Owens, Mason Wood 5.5
Callum Wilkie 4.5
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 3.5
Max King 2.5
Jack Higgins 2
Bradley Hill 1.5

WB
Marcus Bontempelli 29
Tom Liberatore 13
Tim English 7
Adam Treloar, Bailey Smith 6
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan 5.5
Caleb Daniel 3.5
Cody Weightman 3
Bailey Dale 2.5
Jack Macrae 1.5
Aaron Naughton 1
Bailey Williams, Rory Lobb, Ed Richards 0.5

 

[Gift]

I just ignore rucks since none have done well in the last 15+ years. Remember years when Goldy and Gawn were contenders and they couldnt even win their own club votes.

 

[Gift]

I cant even recall a time a ruck even made their expected votes.

 

[Spooka]

Out of curiosity am I the only one that has rozze outpolling butters?