Preview 2023 Elimination Final - Carlton vs Sydney Friday 8th Sept 7.50PM @ MCG

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Team is in …


IN: Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Marc Pittonet
OUT: Paddy Dow, Corey Durdin, Zac Fisher, Ollie Hollands


After starting the last game as sub, Caleb Marchbank has been elevated into the starting 22.








Backs:Brodie KempJacob WeiteringNic Newman
Half-backs:Alex CincottaMitch McGovernAdam Saad
Centreline:Blake AcresPatrick CrippsSam Docherty
Half-forwards:Jack MartinHarry McKayDavid Cuningham
Forwards:Lachie FogartyCharlie CurnowMatthew Owies
Followers:Marc PittonetAdam CerraSam Walsh
Interchange:Matthew CottrellTom De KoningGeorge Hewett
Caleb Marchbank
Emergencies:Paddy DowZac FisherOllie Hollands
Jesse Motlop
 

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Really hard to argue with this side View attachment 1794890
That's a pretty tall side if the weather conditions are as bad as forecast.
It would be a brave call, and highly unlikely, but I wouldn't mind replacing Harry with Dave or Ollie, then give Kennedy the sub vest.

edit. and remove Fish, didn't notice him.
 
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Ollie Hollands has played 17 games this year (including last 6). It's a different game come finals, but I feel (understandable as it may be) it would be stiff if he was to miss out.
There's undoubtedly going to be unlucky players on Friday night.
That's what happens when you have a good side/list.
 
No, but Doc was back prior to Hollands' injury, and then moved up the field to wing/mid for his last 10 games.
So I'll be surprised if Doc plays back this week. And I don't think he'll get huge mid minutes with Cripps, Hewett, Cerra and Walsh playing.

I think Cottrell is a lock, so playing Hollands would likely mean 2 of Cunners, Fog and Motlop missing.
Especially in finals, I don't think we get more as a side playing Hollands, and then Cottrell more forward, than what we do playing Cottrell more wing and fitting in another of those forwards instead.
Since Hollands got hurt we have been missing at least one other mid/wing option each week.
Hewett, Cottrell (suspended), Kennedy, then the Cerra and Walsh issues. Doc arguably has been moved up the ground to cover other players and not necessarily Hollands.
We simply haven’t had them all available together to know what the preferred position for Doc is. Guess we’ll soon find out.
 
Whatever happens from here, I don't think that it could ever be viewed as a year of lost opportunity. This will be seen as a year where we turned a very big corner. If everything goes right we could very well pinch a flag here. My excitement is for what is yet to come, this team is only just starting to realise its potential, I'm super excited for what we will see in 2024, I think we will kill it.
Depends on the standards that are expected.

2022 - the club expected finals and we didn’t get there (arguably choked in the final few games)
2023 - given 2022, what were reasonable expectations? Unquestionable that we’ve had a great 9-10 weeks and this will be a great foundation for 2024 however had we not had that patch of poor form, we would have managed top 4 - if we lose on Friday night, you could make a case that 2023 was another lost opportunity.

Fwiw, I expect to win on Friday and imo we should get to the prelim final ie list/team is effectively top 4 for the season
 
I'm less concerned over Dow vs Kennedy or whether Hollands plays.

Sheer desperation and embarrassment at our performances mid season drove the team to be 1) desperate on tackling and physicality, and 2) to take chances on the corridor. This finally meant we didn't care who played as it was a team agenda that allowed us to bully sides.

Once we lose points 1 and 2 like GWS we potentially fall back to early season form and pump in high down the wings which is something that would mean we lose our first final.

Either they know the parameters now of success and smash Sydney based on the 9 run win or they lose that focus post GWS and get a bit nervous and dont take on the corridor. Just hard tackling is not enough if we punt in repetitively down the wings and to packs of 9 inside fwd 50.

Voss has to set the mindset. Be hard as nails, take on the corridor as we have midfield dominance in ability/physicality vs Sydney and destroy them.

Please dont play scared/nervous of losing Carlton. It would be another year oif lost opportunity.

Just quietly, i think they can do it as they know the parameters. It is just the confidence to pull the corridor kick in a final!!!

Agree. The only thing that beats us on Friday is us. Play our way and we progress.


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Here is where we disagree on the Dow/ Kennedy comparison. It is more like comparing Mike Tyson to Joe Bugner. Dow is a good challenger but his disposal, strength and defensive pressure is not at the level of champions. Walsh/Rozee v Kennedy is Tyson/Lee
So we’re playing a bloke who has been out injured for 4/5 weeks who hasn’t played a single game for 7 weeks, who you want to throw straight into a elimination final (wet or dry) over another player who has been one of its most productive midfielders originally as sub but then finally been given full games, who has provided the very midfield dynamic it’s been lacking….

Can’t see the sense or value playing him as a sub, missed far too much game time to take a chance with overall touch and endurance in such an important game…

Kennedy and Silvagni are clearly in the best 22 mix but unfortunately are coming from such a long way back…
 

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I've got no idea how we can fit him into the team.....ie who would come out for him....but i've got a gut feeling that Marchbank might play.

I feel his running power and great reading in the air is best to nullify McDonald who runs hard and long. That leaves Weits and Gov to dominate Amarty and McLean, and Kemp on Haywood, Saad on Paps, and Newman on Heeney. I reckon that is matchup perfect.

But it's only one way to look at selection this week. It's gonna be intriguing for us, and all 8 finals teams who have virtually their best player availability all year. Gonna be 4 cracking finals games.
 
Depends on the standards that are expected.

2022 - the club expected finals and we didn’t get there (arguably choked in the final few games)
2023 - given 2022, what were reasonable expectations? Unquestionable that we’ve had a great 9-10 weeks and this will be a great foundation for 2024 however had we not had that patch of poor form, we would have managed top 4 - if we lose on Friday night, you could make a case that 2023 was another lost opportunity.

Fwiw, I expect to win on Friday and imo we should get to the prelim final ie list/team is effectively top 4 for the season
Had we not gone on an incredible run of 9 games we wouldn't have made finals either, who is to say that even if we won more games earlier that we would have then gone on that winning streak? That time was the making of our club, the way the whole club showed professionalism and maturity that we haven't seen in a quarter of a century. My expectations this year were bottom half of the eight this year, we did that.

Last year, we finished higher than we had in ten years. Sometimes expectations don't line up with reality.

If anybody at the end of this season could look at it and say we failed then I don't know what to say. We have done exceptionally well to be where we are after where we were 2 years ago. There is NOTHING to be unhappy about.

If people can't enjoy and celebrate the great strides that we have made over the past two years then I'd confidently declare that they will never be happy.

The years that our season was over by round 6, those were wasted years.
 
It's getting harder and harder to predict what the make up of the team is with each passing week, a great position to be in.
 
If it’s going to be wet or at least greasy I am going with a different team to my earlier effort

Why? - we need grunt and effort thus
1) Fogarty in over Cuningham (and I am a big fan of Cuningham) but Richie has a habit of going missing
2) sub Dow to cover for Crippa if he struggles, it’s him or Hewitt in the 22 I like Hewitt more and I think Kennedy is too risky as sub as he hasn’t played
3) Holland is 50:50 for me, 1:1 he struggles at times, but in a year or two he will be elite, but for mine we need the defensive run he provides against a rebounding Swans team and a 50:50 Acres
4) Cincotta or Fisher - I want the defense - now that we have Walsh and Cerra back as outside run
?) ruck - I would play Silvagni instead of Pittonet if he was fit/ready but too risky in a final

In : Pittonet Cripps Docherty Motlop Dow (sub)

Out : Fisher Durdin Marchbank (sub) Cuningham Dow

FB: Cincotta Weitering Kemp
HB: Saad McGovern Newman
C: Acres Cripps Hollands
HF: Martin McKay Fogarty
FF: Motlop C.Curnow Owies

F: Pittonet Cerra Walsh

Int: Docherty (d) TDK (r/f) Cottrell (f/w) Hewett (m)

SUB : Dow

E- Marchbank Fisher Kennedy
 
his point of difference is his burst pace. if the ball drop requires a quick sprint to get the ball first, he's going to get there faster.

he's got evasion with his sidestep.

he can quickly put on a few metres gap to get an entry deep i50.

In a vacuum I'd rather Cripps, Kennedy and Hewett all before him. But we're not in a vacuum and already have Cripps providing that big body.

Drop a loose ball 10 metres away from those 3 and it's a raffle who gets there first. Dow would get there first 9 times out of 10 with that group.

not sure whether his points of difference outweigh the fact that hewett/kennedy are overall better players.

but to deny that there is a point of difference is lying to yourself.
Dow’s clean hands, quick agility & side stepping in creating opportunities to find space for himself in traffic while setting up teammates has been a big factor in our clearances in winning and moving the ball on…
 
Last year, we finished higher than we had in ten years. Sometimes expectations don't line up with reality.

If anybody at the end of this season could look at it and say we failed then I don't know what to say. We have done exceptionally well to be where we are after where we were 2 years ago. There is NOTHING to be unhappy about.

If people can't enjoy and celebrate the great strides that we have made over the past two years then I'd confidently declare that they will never be happy.

The years that our season was over by round 6, those were wasted years.
Last year, in our last quarter, we kicked 0.6 and one no score and lost by a point (we also had a set shot from 30 out robbed from us by one of the worst umpiring decisions I've ever seen).
That was after absolutely bottling it in the last minute the previous week. Expectations of finals were not unreasonable in the slightest. And that's despite our horror run of injuries.

Our 9 win streak has shown what our list is capable of, despite missing many of our best players for multiple games.
With our ability, not making top 4 would be underachieving.

People are just too used to our previous failures, and can't see what we are.
 
If Blacres does not come up, then Dave gets a game. Otherwise, probably not.
This post has received a love react, if only for this reason.

A chronic missed opportunity his entire career, that commentators haven't exploited at any point. An equilibric wrong, righted.
 
Last year, in our last quarter, we kicked 0.6 and one no score and lost by a point (we also had a set shot from 30 out robbed from us by one of the worst umpiring decisions I've ever seen).
That was after absolutely bottling it in the last minute the previous week. Expectations of finals were not unreasonable in the slightest. And that's despite our horror run of injuries.

Our 9 win streak has shown what our list is capable of, despite missing many of our best players for multiple games.
With our ability, not making top 4 would be underachieving.

People are just too used to our previous failures, and can't see what we are.
Honestly has nothing to do with it. We are light years ahead of where we were last year and I will maintain that the down period this year and the way the club handled it was a huge moment in the history of the club. I'll celebrate it all the way and expect next year to be huge for us. We have only been what we are now for half a season. We were on a knife's edge, if we reacted the way we have for years now we'd be nowhere near it.
 
It would be Cinc or Fish.
I can't say I'm expecting it, but I also wouldn't be surprised in the least.
Marchy would be a surprise to me, has looked a fair way off it since his return imo. Cinc has been pretty good, tapered off a little the last couple of games. Be a good match-up for Heeney when he plays forward. Been really impressed with his physicality and ability to run and gun.
Be extremely surprised if Fish is picked, has played okay since returning. See him as a depth player now.
 
Marchy would be a surprise to me, has looked a fair way off it since his return imo. Cinc has been pretty good, tapered off a little the last couple of games. Be a good match-up for Heeney when he plays forward. Been really impressed with his physicality and ability to run and gun.
Be extremely surprised if Fish is picked, has played okay since returning. See him as a depth player now.
So you're expecting Boyd to come in?
Or Doc to be played back?
 
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