Preview 2023 Elimination Final - Carlton vs Sydney Friday 8th Sept 7.50PM @ MCG

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Team is in …


IN: Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Marc Pittonet
OUT: Paddy Dow, Corey Durdin, Zac Fisher, Ollie Hollands


After starting the last game as sub, Caleb Marchbank has been elevated into the starting 22.








Backs:Brodie KempJacob WeiteringNic Newman
Half-backs:Alex CincottaMitch McGovernAdam Saad
Centreline:Blake AcresPatrick CrippsSam Docherty
Half-forwards:Jack MartinHarry McKayDavid Cuningham
Forwards:Lachie FogartyCharlie CurnowMatthew Owies
Followers:Marc PittonetAdam CerraSam Walsh
Interchange:Matthew CottrellTom De KoningGeorge Hewett
Caleb Marchbank
Emergencies:Paddy DowZac FisherOllie Hollands
Jesse Motlop
 

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You definitely need to apply the “eyeball” test in conjunction.
However the eyeball test can be flawed, u see Dow not charging back hard enough, but he had the highest pressure acts for the team that game.
That would tell me he was applying great defensive pressure in the immediate vicinity, which could then translate to looking lax on the outside eg attempt a tackle/smother then be out of position for the next play- ball is then gone & when u see it, the player is standing there a step/play behind- to the eye test it looks crap if u missed the first effort.

I suppose at the end of the day, our eyeballs don't matter, except for an opinion on here.

We'll soon find out what Voss's eyeballs have been telling him.
 
I don't see anyone talking him down, sharing thoughts on his strengths and weaknesses is an opinion

Cherry picking stats such as clearances, (which is a strength of Dow's ) without his disposal efficiency, (5th worst this year), paints a completely different picture

The majority of every single preview thread is taken over by discussion in and around 1 player
I mean, Michael Jezz is openly trolling about him but overall, valid points.
 
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I feel like Cincotta and Hollands are just the types for a tough finals game. Hollands may be slight in frame but his work rate, courage and willingness to put his body on the line and back it up over and over again has me excited to them in finals

100% agree on Cincotta. He is tough and usually does not fumble. I think he has more value in finals than Fisher. I would like to see Hollands play too. Marchbank and Cunners out for me. Packing my bag tonight.
 

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So, it's clear now Acres remains in the 22 and 4 others come into the 22: Cripps, Doc, Pitto and Mots.

1. Mots for Durdin a certainty.

So, three others must come out....

2. Dow out (for Cripps) imo.
3. One of Cotters, Hollands, Fog or Cuners for Doc.
4. Another of those four, or Cinc, out for Pitto.
5. Dow replaces Marchy as sub.
 
Pittonet in is a real worry. Think we are one tall too many especially considering the conditions.
Fair enough, I wouldn't put that on Pitt though.
I've little doubt we'll gain ascendancy with him in the middle & with a greasy football/repeat stoppages, it should play to his strengths.
Whilst TDK's play forward requires a bit of work, he does draw a half decent opponent & can bring the ball to ground for our smalls.
 
Sorry if it's already been mentioned (only went back 2 pages), but 26 players out on track for the captain's run. Assuming this is likely the team + emergencies.
On track: Cripps, Acres, Pitto, Doc, Mots, Gov, Marchy, Fish Hollands and Dow.
Durdin missing, so a likely out for Mots. I guess most of that is as expected, so just remains to be seen who makes the team and who the emergencies are. Voss obviously has stated Pitto in and Acres passed his fitness test with flying colours.

 
100% agree on Cincotta. He is tough and usually does not fumble. I think he has more value in finals than Fisher. I would like to see Hollands play too. Marchbank and Cunners out for me. Packing my bag tonight.
I reckon Cunners will stay. I'd assume Voss would want to play a player with X Factor and hope he comes good tomorrow. X factor players having good games seems to have a greater weighted affect during finals. Causes opposition players to drop their bundle a bit.

Stuart Dew....
 
It is incredibly pleasing after such a horrid run of injuries the past 3 seasons that we hit the finals with only 2 best 23 players unavailable through injury in Williams and JSOS.

Who comes out is interesting,

Motlop, Cripps, Doc & Pitt come in..
Durdin for Motlop is easy and makes sense.
Everyone else is hard but i will have a crack.
I think one of Fish or Cincotta comes out for Doch, whoever stays will play half back and Doch will just become a midfield rotation off the bench, if i had to guess it will be Cinc that is stiff.
Pitto for Fogarty is harsh but if we want to play 2 rucks someone is going to be unlucky.
Dow moves to sub for Cripps, again a harsh call on Dow but Cripps, Walsh, Cerra, Doch & Hewett are all rated ahead of Paddy and 6 doesnt go into 5.

We will line up like this at the opening bounce,

B - Newman, Weiters, Gov
HB- Saad, Kemp, Fisher
C- Acres, Cripps, Hollands
R - Pittonet, Walsh, Cerra
HF - Owies, Harry, Cotterell
FF - Martin, Charlie, Motlop
I - TDK, Hewett, Doch, Cuningham
S - Dow.
 
We should get over our elimination final hurdle , Swans at the G is an attainable win , will be tough as all final games are, however, can’t see us being unduly challenged.
Swans are talented, but lack experienced mentoring & direction on the field.
Go Baggers
 

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Guessing

In Cripps, Doc, Mots, Pitto
Out Cuners, Hollands, Durdin, Dow

No idea of who the sub will be, but think it will be one of Dow, Hollands, Cuners
Swap Hollands for Fisher and you've got a deal.
Fish has done great to turn his form around and do a decent job in an unfamiliar role, but Hollands will impact more contests and I rate that higher in a final and given the conditions.
 
Sounds like it is Fish vs Marchbank (assuming Doch plays wing/midfield). Boyd not at Captain's Run.

Voss said this during the presser:

"they’ve got a front half with their smalls that are particularly threatening."

It would be odd if we went Marchbank given where their strengths lie. I'm surprised Boyd is not in the 26.
 
Sorry if it's already been mentioned (only went back 2 pages), but 26 players out on track for the captain's run. Assuming this is likely the team + emergencies.
On track: Cripps, Acres, Pitto, Doc, Mots, Gov, Marchy, Fish Hollands and Dow.
Durdin missing, so a likely out for Mots. I guess most of that is as expected, so just remains to be seen who makes the team and who the emergencies are. Voss obviously has stated Pitto in and Acres passed his fitness test with flying colours.


Was Kennedy out there?
 
There are some players where the eye test tells you more than just relying on "facts" (stats).

JSOS is always going to be rated higher than his stats by most supporters - because of what their eyes tell them about everything he does that is not measured statistically.

Dow is the opposite. Watching him live at the GWS game, it surprised me how little intent he showed after the ball left his immediate area a few times. He literally jogged after the ball/opponent. I know there were others that showed less than 100% intent that night, but as a fringe player who should be desperate to keep his spot, he gives the coaches reason for concern.

Dow has done well to do what he has this year, but when players return from injury, there will always be a ranking system applied to who goes out. To keep his spot in the 22, Dow really needed to go past Hewett and/or Kennedy. Defensively they have him covered comfortably - not necessarily in raw tackle numbers, but general intent to do anything to disrupt the opponent/s when they have the ball. I wish we had a player with Dow's burst and Hewett's desperation. Coaches will generally prefer the latter though.

His match fitness should see him get the 23rd spot ahead of other suitable candidates like Kennedy and JSOS. That is a tribute to his improvement and he can a serious weapon late in a tight game.
But the facts are… :grinv1:

At the end of the day the eye test, is just what ever the posters opinion is…
 
Swap Hollands for Fisher and you've got a deal.
Fish has done great to turn his form around and do a decent job in an unfamiliar role, but Hollands will impact more contests and I rate that higher in a final and given the conditions.

I would play Boyd in front of Cincotta or Fisher, but also sounds like Marchbank might be considered

If Marchbank does come in, think the magnets will shuffle again
 
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