Opinion 2023 Pass mark (Nicks keeps job)

Minimum number of wins for a pass for AFC in 2023?


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Excluding games against Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast he needs 4-5 wins.

Needs to start winning games against better sides not scraping through against the easybeats
He needs 6 by the mid point of the season, in my opinion.

Otherwise Media pressure will start and he'll be sacked.

That's just my opinion of course, could be wrong and he somehow survives.

So I guess if we play Hawks North and WCE in the first 12 he might be on track.
 
For me - Still in finals contention come Rd 20.

2022 was always going to be the plateau/regression year

I expect 2023 to be the year we improve. If we can't, I dont want to see Nicks hanging around beyond this year.
 
For me - Still in finals contention come Rd 20.

2022 was always going to be the plateau/regression year

I expect 2023 to be the year we improve. If we can't, I dont want to see Nicks hanging around beyond this year.
I think you're about a year early on your expectations re: our progression.
 
remember theres an extra game in adelaide next year

i assume this means we have 12 home games in adelaide plus an away showdown
 

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the allocation of 12 games at Adelaide oval won’t change 11 home and 1 away.
It's 11+1 normally. Magic Round should bring that up to 12 + 1...

I say "should"... I wouldn't put it past them to argue that we already have 12 games in SA, scheduling it as one of our normal home games, and giving us an extra interstate game. Effectively, we could end up with an 11-1-11 (home/SA/away) split, instead of our normal 11-1-10 split.
 
How many wins?
Irrelevant to an extent.

It's about how we are rebuilding & style of play with younger players developing with an eye to the future.
 
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OK... it's not a 100% certainty - but it would be close to a 99% probability, almost regardless of on-field results.
No, it would be more like 90ish % imo.

A lot could easily go wrong with an inexperienced squad.

Much higher than 1% chance of being sacked.
 
If we regress in terms of win/loss in 2023 it's likely because of injuries to key players, particularly experienced players. We went into the rebuild light on experience, then lost Sloane and Seedsman.

So given where the squad sits, I think that we're exceeding expectations.

Say a Dawson, Laird or Walker are lost to a long term injury I can see us going backwards in wins. I'm not really ok with that, but it's possible.

It's more about seeing development. Progression isn't linear, but I reckon that so far we're ahead of where we'd expected to be. We still enter 2023 with the youngest and most inexperienced list.

I am really excited about where we are headed, we just need 3-4 more guns from somewhere (draft/trade/FA). That includes a key defender, and a gun mid.

The forward line is pretty much sorted, we have so much talent there it's incredible.

We also have some decent midfield talent coming through.

I'm expecting for us to get more wins in 2023, but it's not a coach killer if we don't.
 
I think you're about a year early on your expectations re: our progression.
I expected 2022 plateau (Sophmore blues)
2023 push for finals - 10-13 wins
2024 a drop off (Sloane/Walker retirement and everyone else having to carry their own way) - 8-10 wins
2025 finals or bust. - 12+ wins
 

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Opinion 2023 Pass mark (Nicks keeps job)

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