Opinion 2023 Pass mark (Nicks keeps job)

[Vader]

How do you know what his KPI's are?

I don't know what they are... but I can tell you, sure as heck, that win-loss ratio is one of the least important of them, given where our team list is currently at.

We're currently over-performing, and there's not a single thing to suggest that Nicks' position would be in any danger at the end of 2023, even if the team takes a step backwards in 2023.

 

[LeftyLuke]

How many wins?

To keep his job probably 13. I don't think he keeps his job regardless of wins though. He was always a stop gap to help rebuild the club and then they would bring in a decent coach. He likely knew that when he took the job.

I think the crows should make a play for Simpson. He's done his time at the Eagles and needs a new challenge. Another option would be Leppitsch who has gained a lot of experience since he was a head coach. The 3rd option is goodwin who would most likely love to coach the club he played for. I think they would let Goodwin out of his contract at Melb.

 

[Vader]

Projecting? Not really. I'm more interested in eventually getting the right result and am on record here as disapproving of Ruccutios pressure inducing public commentary. I don't think Vader's 2025 timeline is that far off based on the list as it stands, but I don't think Nicks lasts that long based on what I know, see and have seen of this Club over the course.

So we finished 6 spots out of the 8 this year. By your logic, Nicks only has to improve our ladder position by one rung each year,whist building a good, solid, positive culture of incremental improvement as we traject towards the lofty heights of yesteryears mediocrity culture come 2028-29? Is this correct?
Or do we eventually throw some numbers on the table do you think?

Surely our drafting strategy gives you a hint as to the level of expectation?

I think you're tripping.

Nicks is the first AFC coach to have survived 2 years of missing finals, since Cornes in 91/92. Why? Because the club did a full assessment, realised that a complete "ground up" rebuild was required, and knew that this would take more than 2 years to complete.

Nicks has completely changed the team's culture, and maintained a moderate degree of success despite fielding the youngest & least experienced team in the AFL (and in the club's history). To date, he has achieved everything expected of him, and that shows no sign of changing in 2023.

What our drafting strategy says is that:
A - They don't rate the 2022 draft class (noting that several other clubs have traded out of the 2022 draft), and
B - They regard the rebuild as nearly complete, in terms of assembling players on the list.

I think the core of our next finals contending group are on the list now - I expect our next finals team will be at least 80% players who are on our list today. However, the players are still young & inexperienced, and still developing into the team that will take them to the finals. There is a lag between when they finish drafting the group as a whole, and when the team is ready to contend - a lag caused by time taken for player development.

 

[sutts]

Finals may not be the measure of success, but number of wins absolutely will be. It's hard to say what the number will be definitively without knowing the fixture, but the 10 win mark seems about right (this assumes a soft draw based on 2022 results and ladder position).

The way we lose is important too. If we are all talking about close losses being the difference between where we finish and a finals berth, then it's easy to demonstrate incremental improvement to the board. Think Port 2022 - missed finals with a superior % to teams around them (acknowledging their season was a failure, based on their squad cycle).

IMO Nicks is no guarantee to coach in 2024, but I am confident 2023 will see our recent recruits stamp their mark (Dawson, Rankine), a selection of kids take another step (Berry, Thrillthorpe, Rachele, Soligo), and strong output from previously maligned players (Fogarty, ROB, Jones).

 

[rabidcrow]

I wonder if this thread was made at the end of round 19 when we'd gone the last 12 games with only 2 wins, would people still be saying Nicks is safe as houses?

He hasn’t even started his contract extension. Sacking him next year regardless of results isn’t going to happen.
He has done everything they would have hoped for over the last two years - bring the squad together, building a team culture of playing hard with strong defensive effort




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[Mr_Moogle]

He hasn’t even started his contract extension. Sacking him next year regardless of results isn’t going to happen.

Brett Ratten likes this.

 

[rabidcrow]

To keep his job probably 13. I don't think he keeps his job regardless of wins though. He was always a stop gap to help rebuild the club and then they would bring in a decent coach. He likely knew that when he took the job.

Come on. We having some solid debate of different points of view. 13 wins? You would be the only person in Australia that would hold that view


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[Ramify]

Come on. We having some solid debate of different points of view. 13 wins? You would be the only person in Australia that would hold that view


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13 triggers re-extension until 2035.

 

[Vader]

TBH, Vader is right about how long as a minimum before we are even average, wrong about it being normal.

We've not improved our festering turd of a midfield in any meaningful way for half a decade of abject failure. Until we do, why are we going to bounce up the ladder?

The comment about the midfield is valid... but recruitment isn't Nicks' responsibility - so how do we rate the failure of the midfield, if the recruiting team fails to give him quality cattle to work with?

 

[Ramify]

The comment about the midfield is valid... but recruitment isn't Nicks' responsibility - so how do we rate the failure of the midfield, if the recruiting team fails to give him quality cattle to work with?

Assuming he is getting the best out of the cattle he has. I don't think he is/has.

 

[Scorpus]

Assuming he is getting the best out of the cattle he has. I don't think he is/has.

What he's achieved with the list is about par so far. We have a bad list.

How he's been achieving those par results though has been questionable at times with an ultra conservative approach.

Adding Rankine doesn't really solve any pressing need with the side so I expect us to only slightly improve in 2023. Nicks has very little to work with so it makes it hard to judge him. I think he sees out the season and coaches in 2024.

 

[Vader]

Assuming he is getting the best out of the cattle he has. I don't think he is/has.

He's got them significantly over-performing.

 

[LeftyLuke]

Come on. We having some solid debate of different points of view. 13 wins? You would be the only person in Australia that would hold that view


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Point is I don't see Nick's holding his job regardless of wins. I think they will go after an experienced coach such as Simpson, Goodwin or Leppitsch end of next. I think this is the right play. Most likely it would be Goodwin through his relationship with Roo and the opportunity to come home and coach the team he played for. His relationship with the melb hierarchy isn't overly good so I can't see a problem in him being let out of his contract. Goodwin knows Burgess well and this would be another factor.

 

[Big Dub]

So if North finish 15th next year and 14th the year after, they should sack Clarko? Or do you look beyond the win/ loss results and factor in what he has to work with?

Nicks may not be the game day coach we ultimately need to win a flag, but I doubt we are in a position to even test that in the next couple of years.

Dimma and Goodwin were both near sacking when they got their first flags. Sacking coaches to make fans feel better is not always the best tactical move.

 

[rocket18]

Not so much about number of wins for me, a pass would be Nicks:

• Not making so many selection mistakes.
• Having a gameplan that doesn't involve having +1 or +2 around the contest leaving our forwards out numbered, it is a failure.
• Playing our best player on the wing and not in the back pocket, where would our opposition coaches rather see Dawson play?
• Stop the Ned/Murph forward "experiment", they are not small forwards.

A random off the street could acheive the above so it's a pretty low bar.

Nicks appears to have the playing group back together which was needed but he seems a bit clueless, 2023 should be his last season.

 

[Southerntakeover]

The comment about the midfield is valid... but recruitment isn't Nicks' responsibility - so how do we rate the failure of the midfield, if the recruiting team fails to give him quality cattle to work with?

Do we reckon our conservatism in midfield selection, and recruitment are operating entirely independently?

They couldn't be revealing of the same view?

 

[Danger in Texas]

I have no idea what the club's expectations will be, but my pass mark? I'd have a few criteria:

• A minimum of 6 wins against teams that aren't North Melbourne or West Coast (or any other team that falls to those two teams' 2022-levels of dogshit - Hawks might fall into this category)
• A really healthy dose of development and progression, whether that be guys like Fogarty/Berry elevating their games to 'star' status or some other less-developed players stamping themselves as best 22
• Less reliance on Tex and Laird

I think finals in 2024 should be the goal

 

[Ramify]

He's got them significantly over-performing.

Disagree.

What he's achieved with the list is about par so far. We have a bad list.

How he's been achieving those par results though has been questionable at times with an ultra conservative approach.

Adding Rankine doesn't really solve any pressing need with the side so I expect us to only slightly improve in 2023. Nicks has very little to work with so it makes it hard to judge him. I think he sees out the season and coaches in 2024.

I don't get how you determine what is par when,as you say, they aren't being Coached to excell or reach their potential.

It's the same argument as saying Hately as a wingman makes for a shit inside midfielder. He may well be shit, but until you expose him to the position and give him a fair run at it, I don't see how you can say that he's failed, or shit in that position.
Same applies to this young midfield group as a whole.

Take away his conservative approach, fix up our rotations and drill some basic midfield tactics into them and who knows what they could/should look like by now. I think he's a year behind the 8-ball in this regard.

I honestly don't believe there is such a dearth of talent on our list as Nicks Coaching/gameday/selection strategy,along with our Ladder finishes makes it look like.

One thing I know is that they definitely aren't "Over performing" as Vader suggests.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

He's got them significantly over-performing.

Young teams lose football matchs !!

Young teams are wildly inconsistent !!

To have put in the performances in 2022 ....with injuries to senior players ....and remaining competitive & in winnable positions in "most" games .....did indicate, as the youngest AFL side, Nicks had them performing well

I really am surprised as to what peoples expectations were .....were we supposed to play Finals, as the youngest side ??

 

[Slippery Pete]

Five consecutive years out of the eight now.

That should never happen. If you are a club that is fair dinkum.

I’m not saying it’s all Nicks’ fault.

But it’s easy to look at it and say, “well, two of those years don’t count, because Nicks and co had nothing to do with those two years, and then the first year was a rebuilding year… and then….”

All of a sudden five years gets explained away awfully quick doesn’t it?

If people on here are being honest, is anyone’s heart really still in supporting this club, or are you just going through the motions?

Be honest.

 

[1970crow]

I expected 2022 plateau (Sophmore blues)
2023 push for finals - 10-13 wins
2024 a drop off (Sloane/Walker retirement and everyone else having to carry their own way) - 8-10 wins
2025 finals or bust. - 12+ wins

Sloane isn't a positive performance factor.

 

[Vader]

Do we reckon our conservatism in midfield selection, and recruitment are operating entirely independently?

They couldn't be revealing of the same view?

There's two ways of looking at it...

• We're not selecting the youngsters, because the list management team haven't drafted any with elite potential, or
• We're not drafting midfielders with our top picks, because they think those they've already drafted will get the job done (contradicted by selection).

List Management and Team Selection decisions aren't mutually exclusive, so it's probably a bit from column A and a bit from column B.

I will note that 2022 was the year we finally started to see a true regeneration of our midfield, years after they turned over the Defence & Forward lines. Berry & Soligo forced their way into the starting midfield, and I expect (hope) Pedlar will join them in 2023. If that happens, then we will have significantly regenerated our midfield, which is exactly what we all want to see happen.

 

[Ramify]

Young teams lose football matchs !!

Young teams are wildly inconsistent !!

To have put in the performances in 2022 ....with injuries to senior players ....and remaining competitive & is winnable positions in "most" games .....did indicate, as the youngest AFL side, Nicks had them performing well

I really am surprised as to what peoples expectations were .....were we supposed to play Finals, as the youngest side ??

He's not talking about the team as a whole!!

A good percentage of our midfield make-up aren't what you would consider "young"!!

Of the mainstay youngsters; 33% went backwards last season, 33% progressed as expected and 33% bought their own football abilty with them as first year players!!

"Wildly inconsistent" performances doesn't equate to "over-performing"!!

 

[Dirty Bird]

Doesn't Sophomore mean second year? This year was Nicks' third, and his second year was a huge improvement on his first.

Nicks' first season was fix the culture, problem being we were worse than we expected.
Nicks' second season I view as the real rebuild.
2022 as the 2nd year (sophmore season) of the rebuild)

 

[Eddie Murphy]

Not going backwards is surely a fail.
How do you justify this as being a pass?

Player development is not always linear and we're still one of if not the youngest lists. While I'd be disappointed with another 8 win season I can't see us compromising what was always a long term vision under Nicks because of a stagnated year. Let 2024 be the year we hold more scrutiny to Nicks.