Preview 2023 Rd 22 Carlton vs Melbourne Saturday August 12 7:30M @ MCG

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Team is in …


NO. CHANGES.








Sam Docherty will play his 150th game in the Navy Blue guernsey - the jumper he grew up wearing as a supporter - as Carlton looks to continue its strong run of form from recent months.


Last weekend’s sub, Ed Curnow is the sole omission from the Round 22 team: he has been named as one of four emergencies alongside Jordan Boyd (now available after suspension), Sam Durdin and Josh Honey. One of those four will be named as sub an hour before the bounce.



Backs:Alex CincottaJacob WeiteringAdam Saad
Half-backs:Nic NewmanCaleb MarchbankBrodie Kemp
Centreline:Blake AcresPatrick CrippsOliver Hollands
Half-forwards:Jack MartinTom De KoningDavid Cuningham
Forwards:Lachie FogartyCharlie CurnowMatthew Owies
Followers:Marc PittonetSam DochertyGeorge Hewett
Interchange:Matthew CottrellPaddy DowZac Fisher
Jesse Motlop
Emergencies:Jordan BoydEd CurnowSam Durdin
Josh Honey
 
Cant be dropping players on one bad performance. Fog has been a barometer for the past 6 weeks
Hes certainly played his role well.

Though with this whole new team buy in, I am sure Durdin could thrive. Much like Motlop, and Fish, have since coming back in.
 

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So as of now we are on par with last season. Last year we won 11/22 (50% match points) and now we're at 11.5 of what will be 23. Eerily we were at the 50% mark of win with 3 games to go and came short. A win against the Demons would be huge! We face in the final 3 rounds the other 2 most in form teams (Melb, GWS) which will be another indicator of where we lie in the scheme of things.

With all the effort thrown in the last 7 games, making finals I would hope would not be enough for the team and inspires them to achieve something great.

Looking at whom the Dees will have available is a mighty challenge. Across all lines they are strong and also are great at contesting work and can score rapidly. Trac is in huge form and Viney, Brayshaw, Gawn, May, Pickett are rolling along quite nicely.

Huge game on Saturday...
 
I agree with this. Pitto does try to add some physicality, but he's no where near as damaging as TDK, Harry or JSOS.
Pitto atm should not be playing as he's not clearly right. Can't even bend his knee. I'd be more inclined to bring in Sam Durdin or Young this game to cover as a second ruck and tall.
 
One quiet one and dropped?
He has been important and very good in his time back, has some credits and will not be dropped.
Addressed this in another post - hasn’t been great last few weeks. His pressure is enormous but is very limited offensively. Need everyone in the forward 50 to be able to make the distance from 45 & slot open play opportunities when they arise - hasn’t done that of late - competition for the spot is good, hopefully he lifts & Durds performs well in the 2s.
 
Melbourne just lost petty. No Fritsch. Grundy and brown the only two left to play key forward. I don’t think we need to play weiters marchbank and kemp. I’d drop marchbank for Boyd.

Personally agree.

Sounds like none of Walsh, Cerra, Gov will be fit for the match.

To me, there can only be one change (Boyd) and I'm not ecstatic about bringing him in but I expect they will.

So the out would be either
Kemp (injury, but sounds like it was just cramp)
Fisher (I would be gutted if they dropped Fisher after 32 possies & 4 clearances etc...)
Marchbank (My preferred choice, don't really need the 3 talls this week, however my preference would be he is just managed/rested and doesn't play VFL)

Melbourne have just lost Petty as red_man mentions, so I expect they will bring in one of Tomlinson/Hibberd and move Joel Smith forward. If that's the case, Weitering to JVR, Kemp to Joel Smith. If Melbourne look like playing Ben Brown (with Joel Smith too), there's probably a case to be made for Marchbank staying in the team.

OUT: Marchbank (managed/omitted), IN: Boyd
Sub: ECurnow

If Fisher was to be dropped ( :( ) - I'd make him sub at least.
 

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This game is a huge opportunity but also a free hit, I'd be keeping Marchy in the team to get him up to speed in the event we need cover at the back end of the year.

Yesterday highlighted we desperately need an extra tall up front that can get dangerous otherwise teams will simply employ Ross' tactic and make everyone but Charlie beat them.
 
Yes, certainly not for someone like Honey. If Corey Durdin is in good form, he's the only one I'd consider bringing in.

Selection integrity should be as much based on the alternatives as it is performance.
Durdin has barely played in 6 weeks and was poor before that. Needs to string a couple of good games together in the 2s before being considered.

Anyone coming in it needs to be Binns.

Fish should not be dropped. Boyd hasn't played a game as good as Fish's on the weekend. Did result in Saad having a quiet one.
 
Owies? He was excellent and won’t be dropped

Doc does look in need of a rest, was putrid in the first half, but there’s no way he’d be thinking that and he’ll demand to be played

Fog wasn’t great but his pressure was

I reckon we’ll go in unchanged, barring injuries which we might have finally got through a game without


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Owies was just okay imo. Gets to good spots, kicking for goal let him down. Should have kicked three.

Six day break, would not be against resting Doc to freshen him up. But, cannot see that happening.

Fog is a very interesting one. I love the pressure he has exerted, Vossy loves him. Yet Corey Durdin if fit, for mine is much more damaging. Our new game-style will suit him as well.

If Kemp as reported was grabbing at his hamstring, then that makes him very doubtful after a short week.

Boyd should play, Corey Durdin as well. If Doc plays, I would drop Marchy.
 
My initial thoughts on this game were that it might be a bridge too far. But then I cast my mind back across the last 6 games.
At the end of the first quarter against the Saints I commented that it was a bit early to panic. There was enough evidence to believe we can sustain the pressure and intensity for four quarters, but could the Saints? Turns out they couldn't.
Now I ask again, can the Dees bring the intensity for 4 full quarters? They bloody better, because we will.
 
From what I saw of the Dees-Roos game the Roos had a pressure level of 202 in the first quarter and got out to a 33 point lead in the second minute of the second quarter

Then Roos pressure level dropped to 162 for second quarter and Dees proceeded to pile on 7 goals

We didn’t get our pressure level above 190 against the Saints and still won but it would seem we will need to be at 200+ to jump out to a lead and then can probably let it afford to drop a little to maintain that lead. Dees should be the flag favorites at this stage but we can beat them this week.






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Harry is a walk up start
He absolutely is a walk up start, no doubt that he will come straight back in. I still would like to see him do 20% of the ruck work so that we only carry one of the two ruckmen into a game. If it worked out it'd sort out the relief ruck problem and also strengthen our forward line.
 
Don't think we need to be worrying about who is selected forward for Demons to guide our own decisions. Our talls are mobile enough.

Let them worry about having to combat our players.

If we play Marchy, Kemp and Weiters, that's some serious intercept material. Demons won a flag largely by dominating the air in defence, ala Cats. It's a weapon for us (not our only weapon, but a weapon nonetheless). Think Gov can be added to that group as well and they can all fit best 22 - then it's crazy levels of intercept quality.

We dominate the intercept ball and it'll go a long way to giving us a shot this week and for the flag.

We should be right in this if we can bring the same heat. Going to be a cracking game.
 
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Probably too early to look ahead but if we win our last 3 games we will clearly finish 5th which means if we win our elimination final we will travel to the loser of 1 v 4. Any of Pies, Dees and Lions can finish 1st and whomever does will start favorite against Port who are practically locked into 4th. So the way probabilities work the most likely scenario if we beat Dees is we play semi final at Port.

Conversely if we lose to Dees but win the next two we probably finish 6th and at most 7th. So either way if we win that we would play the loser of 2 v 3 which means we could be at MCG vs Pies or Gabba given Melbourne would likely finish 1st in that scenario. So the most likely outcome of losing to Dees is a semi final at Gabba.

We could of course miss finals completely from here but the Melbourne game is consequential in getting us to finals and where we finish and hence whom we play in finals and where we play.



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