Preview 2023 Semi Final - Carlton vs Melbourne Friday 15th September 7.50PM @ MCG

[Aphrodite]

Team is in …



IN: Matthew Kennedy
OUT: Jack Martin (suspension), Harry McKay

10

Harry Mckay

Age

27

Ht

200cm

Wt

106kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.9

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

2.4

2star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.4

5star

D

6.6

1star

K

4.6

2star

HB

2.0

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

2star

G

1.4

5star

D

8.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.4

4star

T

0.8

3star

G

2.0

5star

(concussion)

AFL team selection: Kennedy to return

It's two changes to the 22 for Carlton's semi final with Melbourne.

www.carltonfc.com.au

Backs:	Brodie Kemp	Jacob Weitering	Nic Newman
Half-backs:	Alex Cincotta	Mitch McGovern	Adam Saad
Centreline:	Blake Acres	Patrick Cripps	Matthew Cottrell
Half-forwards:	Sam Docherty	Tom De Koning	Matthew Owies
Forwards:	Lachie Fogarty	Charlie Curnow	Jesse Motlop
Followers:	Marc Pittonet	Adam Cerra	Sam Walsh
Interchange:	David Cuningham	George Hewett	Matthew Kennedy
	Caleb Marchbank
Emergencies:	Paddy Dow	Sam Durdin	Zac Fisher
	Ollie Hollands

 

[Arr0w]

For me I think Dow replaces more important positions on the field, and if Dow is injected into the midfield, we have more options on magnet shuffling than if Hollands goes to the wing.

I also just think Dow's ability to impact a game is much greater than Hollands, but that's subjective.

Like Hollands, Dow only plays 1 position and if Kennedy does play, we have another inside mid

Players like Doc, Kemp, Gov etc are great sub options as the can play multiple positions

But, either Dow or Hollands will do

 

[Raging Blue]

Jeez I love Kennedy but god help us if he's playing the Jack Martin role. He's a midfielder that can pinch hit up forward from time to time. I'd be putting McGovern up forward.

Kennedy replaces McKay & Motlop Martin you'd imagine.

Kennedy now in, along with Cripps & Hewett, matches nicely Dees strength in Oliver, Petracca, Viney. Add Cerra & Walsh and maybe Dow as sub and the Dees have their hands fall.

We get the Fritsch & Pickett match up right, Dees will find it tough.

 

[lily of laguna]

I'd go Hollands since we already have an extra big mid if required in Kennedy and then Doc can play mid or even in defence.

That way it also helps to cover an injury to our backline as well. Dow doesn't provide us that.

Reasoning is sound, but i would choose Dow over Hollands.

Dow is an ideal sub if we aren't trying to replace an injured tall, he is very capable of winning it out of congestion and has a burst of speed. His endurance and chasing is a weakness that isn't exposed if he comes on in the 3rd.

If Acres cannot continue mid match (fingers, toes and knees crossed this is not the case!!), I'd put Doc on the wing and have Dow replace him in the middle.

We can also move Kennedy into the midfield and take a Kemp/Gov forward as a desperate measure.

I have the feeling that Voss are very keen to keep a settled back-line and wont change that unless forced to by way of injury or game situation.

 

[jimsta10]

quality over quantity - don't become one of those long-term clowns chasing likes all over the place.........sad s**t.........

does chasing for shits and giggles count?

 

[gbatman]

Dow is a proven sub. He has come on before as sub and had a massive impact. I don't think anyone else really has done that for us.

I don't recall hollands playing as the sub, it may work but better to go with what we know works unless we are interested in playing Dow in the 22.

Hollands may or may not work as sub. Dow definitely does, it's a non-contest going into an elimination final.

To me Hollands is more of a grinder and not overly a high impact player. Runs all day, just keeps doing a little here and there over time to accumulate pressure acts and possessions. I wouldn't say he has big impacts with what he does. Over the course of the game he does but not on a small sample size.

Those players who are grinders, just plug away all day don't make good subs. This is whay it was crazy playing Ed as sub all the time. Players who come on and their possessions really impact the game and hurt the opposition do. Dow is one of those. He doesn't need to touch the ball a lot to have an impact. His break away moments from stoppages a lot of the time result in scores. What he does impacts games more than what Hollands does.

If you only have a short period of time on the ground, a quarter and a half, you want to make an impact.

Dow also relieves our onball group. He comes on, means Walsh, Cripps, Cerra rotate more. Fogarty and Cuningham don't enter the centre square as much which means all these guys finish the game fresher and we finish running, not hanging on like we have been.

I think Dow has to be the sub and if Hollands were to play he would play wing and grind a game out and cover his 17KMs.

Who is to say we don't bring Hollands in to play wing, send Cottrell forward perminantly. We might.

We're probably going to play Kennedy which I like in some ways as it gives us a real midfield rotation. As a forward I'm nervous, hasn't got the closing speed to apply pressure. He doesn't have the ability to get to lose balls and close down on opposition defenders like our usual small/medium forwards do. He does have the ability to take a mark and kick a goal which I like but it's been a long time since he was used in this way. One thing we have learnt is that forward pressure is crucial, especially in big games against top teams.

Kennedy would rotate with Cripps which might work. Cripps has played brilliantly and terribly as a forward at times so not sure what we will get.

Think we will see a lot of DeKoning forward who is also hit and miss and has never really taken to a forward role.

I would not be suprised if we at some point throw McGovern or Kemp forward. We won't want to but might have to.

Does that mean Fisher plays as sub? Fisher could come on for someone while Kemp or McGovern goes forward. Or perhaps this is our move and we select the side this way. McGovern forward, Fisher back?

I think Motlop probably has to play. He's a genuine forward. We are losing two genuine forwards. We can't replace them with two make shift/part time forwards which is what kennedy, DeKoning, McGovern, Kemp, Cottrell etc all are. Cottrell probably stakes the best claim as being a genuine forward but really he is a forward/wing.

Martin and McKay are huge outs. I know Melbourne have their injuries to worry about but if we manage to win this then we truly deserve to be in finals and in contention.

Selection will be dificult. There are a lot of options, none of them are terrible, none of them are great. We just have to win.

If I was to bet on it I think DeKoning plays the McKay role, Motlop comes in and plays his own game. The next selection is the really dificult one, I think it's out of Kennedy or the Fisher scenario. I think if Fisher is selected then Dow will be sub, if Kennedy is selected then Fisher will be sub. If Kennedy isn't working then sub him out and send McGovern forward, bring fisher on to half back and try and generate some run between he and Saad.

 

[myblueroan]

For me I think Dow replaces more important positions on the field, and if Dow is injected into the midfield, we have more options on magnet shuffling than if Hollands goes to the wing.

I also just think Dow's ability to impact a game is much greater than Hollands, but that's subjective.

Think it is decided.
Kennedy and Jesse in.
Dutchy sub.

 

[DangerousD]

Most subs happen midway through the 3rd/early 4th quarter.

If this is the case, who is more likely to make a meaningful contribution?

I don’t see Hollands coming on and getting 10 or more touches and having a big influence, would be much more confident on Dow having an impact.

It will be interesting how we go with the ruck, if we will put TDK more forward or if we swing Gov as another marking target. Gov has played forward a lot, give him some freedom and see if it comes off, we still have options and plenty of cover down back.

 

[lily of laguna]

Dow is a proven sub. He has come on before as sub and had a massive impact. I don't think anyone else really has done that for us.

I don't recall hollands playing as the sub, it may work but better to go with what we know works unless we are interested in playing Dow in the 22.

Hollands may or may not work as sub. Dow definitely does, it's a non-contest going into an elimination final.

To me Hollands is more of a grinder and not overly a high impact player. Runs all day, just keeps doing a little here and there over time to accumulate pressure acts and possessions. I wouldn't say he has big impacts with what he does. Over the course of the game he does but not on a small sample size.

Those players who are grinders, just plug away all day don't make good subs. This is whay it was crazy playing Ed as sub all the time. Players who come on and their possessions really impact the game and hurt the opposition do. Dow is one of those. He doesn't need to touch the ball a lot to have an impact. His break away moments from stoppages a lot of the time result in scores. What he does impacts games more than what Hollands does.

If you only have a short period of time on the ground, a quarter and a half, you want to make an impact.

Dow also relieves our onball group. He comes on, means Walsh, Cripps, Cerra rotate more. Fogarty and Cuningham don't enter the centre square as much which means all these guys finish the game fresher and we finish running, not hanging on like we have been.

I think Dow has to be the sub and if Hollands were to play he would play wing and grind a game out and cover his 17KMs.

Who is to say we don't bring Hollands in to play wing, send Cottrell forward perminantly. We might.

We're probably going to play Kennedy which I like in some ways as it gives us a real midfield rotation. As a forward I'm nervous, hasn't got the closing speed to apply pressure. He doesn't have the ability to get to lose balls and closing down on opposition defenders like our usual small/medium forwards do. He does have the ability to take a mark and kick a goal which I like but it's been a long time since he was used in this way. One thing we have learnt is that forward pressure is crucial, especially in big games against top teams.

Kennedy would rotate with Cripps which might work. Cripps has played brilliantly and terribly as a forward at times so not sure what we will get.

Think we will see a lot of DeKoning forward who is also hit and miss and has never really taken to a forward role.

I would not be suprised if we at some point throw McGovern or Kemp forward. We won't want to but might have to.

Does that mean Fisher plays as sub? Fisher could come on for someone while Kemp or McGovern goes forward. Or perhaps this is our move and we select the side this way. McGovern forward, Fisher back?

I think Motlop probably has to play. He's a genuine forward. We are losing two genuine forwards. We can't replace them with two make shift/part time forwards which is what kennedy, DeKoning, McGovern, Kemp, Cottrell etc all are. Cottrell probably stakes the best claim as being a genuine forward but really he is a forward/wing.

Martin and McKay are huge outs. I know Melbourne have their injuries to worry about but if we manage to win this then we truly deserve to be in finals and in contention.

Selection will be dificult. There are a lot of options, none of them are terrible, none of them are great. We just have to win.

If I was to bet on it I think DeKoning plays the McKay role, Motlop comes in and plays his own game. The next selection is the really dificult one, I think it's out of Kennedy or the Fisher scenario. I think if Fisher is selected then Dow will be sub, if Kennedy is selected then Fisher will be sub. If Kennedy isn't working then sub him out and send McGovern forward, bring fisher on to half back and try and generate some run between he and Saad.

Like it but I think Kennedy gets a game and Dow is still sub, Fish misses out.

 

[Aphrodite]

ONE. MORE. SLEEP.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Jeez I love Kennedy but god help us if he's playing the Jack Martin role. He's a midfielder that can pinch hit up forward from time to time. I'd be putting McGovern up forward.

Same....especially if Dees choose to go small in their forward half.

No doubt TDK will be spending time up forward, but also having Gov up there makes Lever and May more accountable by having the genuine 2nd marking option up there, and harder for them to peel off and double team Charlie.

If their forwards are getting off the chain a bit, we always have the option of moving Gov down back to cover.

 

[FoeverBlues]

Jeez I love Kennedy but god help us if he's playing the Jack Martin role. He's a midfielder that can pinch hit up forward from time to time. I'd be putting McGovern up forward.

Kennedy did play as Centre half forward as a junior, knows forwards crafts, great mark, great kick and tough bastard

 

[AB_Blue]

Kennedy's key focus has to be to engage Lever for the entirety of the game.

Hoping to see him be ultra-aggressive and physical with Lever.

Bump, tackle, harrass, niggle - negating Lever will be a huge win for us.

What we know is that he is fit (not sure how match fit he is, but he's been in full training for a month and was ready to go for the GWS, as well as playing in the practice match against Melb Reserves), he's strong, he can mark overhead and he's a booming straight kick.

Any goals will be a bonus.

Both TDK & Kennedy need to keep Lever honest in the forward 50.

When TDK gallops down the line Lever will sag off TKD and allow Gawn to take him…

That’s when Kennedy needs to keep lever honest and keep him from standing in the hole where Charlie wants to lead into


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TheBlueCampaigner]

A lot of overthinking going on here. We beat them last time without Cerra and Walsh. First game back for Handsome George too if I remember correctly. Oliver and Brayshaw both playing. We had Ed as the sub..

The only challenge we have is the linking forward. That has to be McGovern is SOS isn't fit.

Us by 21.

 

[bigblueboy]

If Kennedy is picked highly doubt Dow will be sub. Hollands sub.

 

[Show_Me_The_Money]

A lot of overthinking going on here. We beat them last time without Cerra and Walsh. First game back for Handsome George too if I remember correctly. Oliver and Brayshaw both playing. We had Ed as the sub..

The only challenge we have is the linking forward. That has to be McGovern is SOS isn't fit.

Us by 21.

IIRC all the Melbourne midfielders had 10+ tackles Trac, Oliver, Viney, Brayshaw and we still beat them. I'd be expecting much the same.

 

[THEYSEEMEROLLIN]

off the dees preview thread:

"Just put $100 on Carlton, the 2.25 odds are insane".

Just $100? Get the house on it, Dees supportes!

(Bet responsibly )

 

[jimsta10]

off the dees preview thread:

"Just put $100 on Carlton, the 2.25 odds are insane".

They are an exciting bunch arent they?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Like Hollands, Dow only plays 1 position and if Kennedy does play, we have another inside mid

Players like Doc, Kemp, Gov etc are great sub options as the can play multiple positions

But, either Dow or Hollands will do

In the 22 or sub we can use them either way

 

[Hurricane Murphy]

Dow is a proven sub. He has come on before as sub and had a massive impact. I don't think anyone else really has done that for us.

I don't recall hollands playing as the sub, it may work but better to go with what we know works unless we are interested in playing Dow in the 22.

Hollands may or may not work as sub. Dow definitely does, it's a non-contest going into an elimination final.

To me Hollands is more of a grinder and not overly a high impact player. Runs all day, just keeps doing a little here and there over time to accumulate pressure acts and possessions. I wouldn't say he has big impacts with what he does. Over the course of the game he does but not on a small sample size.

Those players who are grinders, just plug away all day don't make good subs. This is whay it was crazy playing Ed as sub all the time. Players who come on and their possessions really impact the game and hurt the opposition do. Dow is one of those. He doesn't need to touch the ball a lot to have an impact. His break away moments from stoppages a lot of the time result in scores. What he does impacts games more than what Hollands does.

If you only have a short period of time on the ground, a quarter and a half, you want to make an impact.

Dow also relieves our onball group. He comes on, means Walsh, Cripps, Cerra rotate more. Fogarty and Cuningham don't enter the centre square as much which means all these guys finish the game fresher and we finish running, not hanging on like we have been.

I think Dow has to be the sub and if Hollands were to play he would play wing and grind a game out and cover his 17KMs.

Well summarised and only pushes me further into conviction.

An untested, first year endurance player as a sub in a semi-final, while we have a proven 'established' high impact player which gives us more flexibility, sitting in the stands, is almost unthinkable.

Especially considering we aren't picking JSOS because it's a semi-final, we are showing that we want reliability in the team.

 

[reg_lower91]

Dow gives us the same limited flexibility

Don't have an issue with either being the sub, both have strengths and weaknesses

Dow wins clearances, sticks a tackle when in close

Hollands has a higher speed for longer than most, 2 way runner, defensively minded

If either are used as the sub, you would need to shift magnets

Edit

Against Suns, Hollands lead the stats for distance at high speed, number of sprints and repeat sprints for all players

Agreed. Wasn’t saying I agreed with Dow being sub, more-so with Hollands not being sub.

However, in terms of pecking order, I’d have Dow ahead of Hollands purely due to the fact that Dow can play on-ball whilst Hollands can’t. I think this provides more flexibility/ options.

I don’t think covering a wingman is as important as covering a mid/ fwd-mid.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Little bit of inside info - Kennedy definitely in !!

 

[gbatman]

Like it but I think Kennedy gets a game and Dow is still sub, Fish misses out.

It's a tough one. IMO Dow is our best sub. What he has done through the year, coming on with fresh legs and going into the middle and having big impacts. We aren't going to beat that.

If kennedy plays we have that extra mid already so if there in an injury to a mid we don't so much need a mid as sub. Although you would prefer a quicker mid as mid backup as Kennedy does not replace Walsh or Cerra But Dow does and also replaces the other two big bodies to an extent.

I think we also need to be prepared for the kennedy expirement to fail. Kenndy forward is going to hurt our defensive pressure forward which means if he isn't getting it, there is a good chance he is a liability.

If it gets to half time and they are running the ball out of our forward line too easily and Kennedy is hardly touching it he has to come off we we have to send McGovern forward.

That means we need a defender to replace him with. Next cabs of the rank would be Fisher and Boyd and Boyd hasn't played for far too long. Fisher has recent good form and good form against Melbourne so that has to come into consideration.

You might be right but I just feel we have to be prepared for Kennedy forward to be a big failure and we need to have that option to change things up.

Those areguing for Kennedy forward, those arguing for McGovern forward. I think we can use to sub to go in with option 1 and if that fails go to option 2.

I think there is a chance the Kennedy thing fails and he becomes a liability forward. If we pick Dow as sub we are stuck with Kennedy in the forwardline. If we pick Fisher as sub we can change that.

I don't know really. Dow makes the best sub. But we have this forward line issue.

Going to be really interesting to see what we come up with.

The other option is to pick Hollands as sub. If Kennedy fails and we have to take him off. Hollands could go to a wing and Docherty could go into defence.

There are so many things to consider but the main this to consider is that Kennedy may fail, become a liability and we may have to sub him out of the game and send McGovern forward.

Then it's all about who goes back into defence. Fisher is more of a weapon with the ball in hand than Docherty. Docherty is the harder bodied, more expierenced player. Do we want Fisher playing half back or do we want Hollands on the wing more? That is actually a tough question.

 

[gbatman]

Both TDK & Kennedy need to keep Lever honest in the forward 50.

When TDK gallops down the line Lever will sag off TKD and allow Gawn to take him…

That’s when Kennedy needs to keep lever honest and keep him from standing in the hole where Charlie wants to lead into


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bingo. McGovern was used by Teague a lot in this role for memory. The decoy for the other tall forwards. Perhaps he's the player who can do this and make Lever defend and follow.

My only concern with McGovern forward is that I don't like changing things up with what he has been doing. Don't want to risk upsetting his body injury wise.

 

[Blue and Blue]

off the dees preview thread:

"Just put $100 on Carlton, the 2.25 odds are insane".

Next years chairlift tickets paid for at Buller....................clever that

 

[Blue__Balls]

This game is now perfectly placed for us to lose and all the fans to start blaming selection. Should have picked this bloke, that bloke should have been sub, why didn't we move this player into that position.

I reckon we've copped Melbourne at the worst time, here. Yeah, they've got some outs. But as we've demonstrated ourselves, sometimes the personnel is secondary, and all that is needed is a galvanising force.

Melbourne got that. Brayshaw got ironed out, he may or may not return this year. The Dees ran a media campaign to try and ensure the bloke who ironed him out got suspended. Instead, he got off at the tribunal.

Now - maybe this has all been too distracting for them, and they'll come in at only 80% mentally. I'm inclined to think that Goodwin and Gawn will get stuck into their players and demand that they give 120% to ensure that, firstly, they get through to next week to give Angus a chance to come back and play, and secondly, they give themselves a chance to come up against Collingwood and Maynard in the GF so they can knock them over and take home the flag.

If we win, and I absolutely give us an even chance, it'll be because the 23 blokes that took the field ****ing earned it, not because of the names that made up that 23.